Coronavirus

[River Don]

The Telegraph reporting Johnsons Covid gamble is imploding tonight.

From the article:

Today, alas, things are not looking as good. The logarithmic charts of Prof Oliver Johnson, the Bristol mathematician, show that hospital admissions are rising exponentially.

There were 2,370 admissions in England on Friday – up 69 per cent on the week – and the surge is now impacting not just London and the young but all areas of the country and all age groups.

In the North East and Yorkshire NHS region, admissions have more than doubled in a week, up 117 per cent.

There is also nothing yet in the UK data yet to suggest that hospital stays are any shorter, and Covid occupancy of ICU beds has once again started to creep up. It climbed seven per cent in England on the week, with growth focused on London and the East.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/frightening-new-covid-data-shows-boris-johnsons-omicron-gamble/

[BVB]

How many people died of something else that had a positive covid result and it went down as a Covid death?
The figures are incorrect.

Every single week the ONS release figures breaking the headline numbers into cases where COVID was considered the primary cause of death and cases where COVID was incidental.

Go look it up.

Bullshit data like I said.

Serious question a: why is it bullshit?
Serious question b: why do you know better?

I have no agenda to promote btw
BVB

[tommy toes]

Been feeling dodgy since last night.
Streaming cold, headache, chills.
Did two LFT's both positive.
Airport tomorrow for PCR.

[Bentley Bullet]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/01/us-covid-case-counts-omicron

[BVB]

Been feeling dodgy since last night.
Streaming cold, headache, chills.
Did two LFT's both positive.
Airport tomorrow for PCR.

 

Hope it works out TT

[Bentley Bullet]

Stay positive TT. Positivity and laughter is the best medicine so try to be selective in what you read when you are on this forum in particular!

[BillyStubbsTears]

All the best TT. Hope it's a mild one.

[River Don]

Vitamin D supplement TT. Good for the immune system, particularly in these dark winter days.

And plenty of vitamin C is good too.

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/01/us-covid-case-counts-omicron

There's something to be said for that.

Problem is that hospitalisations and deaths are lagging indicators. By the time they are rising sharply, even if you brought in restrictions it's too late. There's another 2-3 weeks of lightning fast rises already baked in. So you need to keep looking at the whole picture, including the daily changes in test positives and positivity ratio if you are going to be able to take action before it's too late.

That said, it looks like it probably is too late to make any radical changes here. I've been looking at the latest LSHTM modelling. They reckon that even a hard lockdown now would not shave off much of the baked in rise in hospital cases and likely deaths. We missed the boat for taking that action. Now we have to just cross our fingers.

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59848109

The bleeding obvious that some have been pointing out since the start of this crisis. If you don't control this virus, it locks down your economy for you. Anybody work in an job where the bosses keep a spare 25% of capacity for moments like these?

[rich1471]

Face masks to be worn in class rooms by secondary school pupils as well

[Nudga]

Vitamin D supplement TT. Good for the immune system, particularly in these dark winter days.

And plenty of vitamin C is good too.

And Zinc.

[Bentley Bullet]

Vitamin D supplement TT. Good for the immune system, particularly in these dark winter days.

And plenty of vitamin C is good too.

And Zinc.

We maybe just all need to be galvanised.

[Bentley Bullet]

Face masks to be worn in class rooms by secondary school pupils as well

Face masks are worn in many, if not most schools already.

[turnbull for england]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59848109

The bleeding obvious that some have been pointing out since the start of this crisis. If you don't control this virus, it locks down your economy for you. Anybody work in an job where the bosses keep a spare 25% of capacity for moments like these?

That's me tested positive today , back to work Tuesday and if I'm same as now fine to WFH  but that's 2:things I will need to cancel / rearrange already that I cant attend , I know there's a few a our place down too so if it affects the front of house staff same we will be in a right state

[wilts rover]

Face masks to be worn in class rooms by secondary school pupils as well

And told to prepare for online learning in case of staff abscences:

https://inews.co.uk/news/education/schools-parents-remote-learning-teacher-absence-january-omicron-covid-1373033

[wilts rover]

Been feeling dodgy since last night.
Streaming cold, headache, chills.
Did two LFT's both positive.
Airport tomorrow for PCR.

Next door neighbour's, not yet boosted, both in their 20's had it over Christmas. He was a bit groggy for a couple of days then fine. She was still rough six days later.

Niece and her husband now have it. She (boosted) had a very mild cold for a day. He (double vacc) has been in bed for 4 days.

Hope you get thro OK Tommy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Best of luck TFE. Hope you have a mild one.

[Nudga]

My mate (vax free) was back at it today grafting at one of his houses, felt rough  for three days. He's come home and is knackered like but there you go.
His missus (vax free) back at work Friday just gone, feels better than he does.

Another mate, boosted week before Xmas, rough for 4 days, OK now. His daughter, double jab badly for over a week. She is a drama queen though.

I think me, my wife and three kids are the only ones who haven't had it out of everyone we know. Strange as my missus is a nurse and all her colleagues had over Christmas.
Mind you, who wants to go into work in-between Xmas and New year?


Edit : actually thinking about it I know 9 other anti vaxxers who haven't had covaids, but they aren't really in our close friendship group.

[drfchound]

Hopefully emphasising that omicron isn’t as dangerous as previous strains.
(Waiting to be shot down).

[BillyStubbsTears]

When we have a chance to properly look back at who performed a service to the nation in this crisis, the BBC deserves a savaging.

It employs people to inform us about health issues.

They've just put this graphic up on their website

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/DD9F/production/_122553765_hospital_cases_uk_31dec-nc.png

"Nearly 12000 people in hospital with COVID" it says. Doesn't look like too big an increase does it? Maybe there's no reason for concern.

Then the small print. "Most recent data for all nations is from 29 December".

So they are showing 4 day old data in a rapidly changing scenario.

But there IS additional data out there. The data on total number of patients in hospital with COVID in England alone has been published right up to today. And currently it stands at over 13,000. There's a delay in data from the other UK nations but if you factor in what they are likely to be, it's likely that the total UK hospital cases is now top side of 15,000.

 That's double what it was the week before Xmas.

And because hospital cases lag infections by 3 or so weeks, those total hospital cases are going to go MUCH higher.

The BBC journalists could easily have given an estimate of where we now are and properly inform people. It took me 20 seconds to find the numbers.

[knockers]

BST finding any covid data on the BBC news site is getting harder by the day.

[belton rover]

When we have a chance to properly look back at who performed a service to the nation in this crisis, the BBC deserves a savaging.

It employs people to inform us about health issues.

They've just put this graphic up on their website

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/DD9F/production/_122553765_hospital_cases_uk_31dec-nc.png

"Nearly 12000 people in hospital with COVID" it says. Doesn't look like too big an increase does it? Maybe there's no reason for concern.

Then the small print. "Most recent data for all nations is from 29 December".

So they are showing 4 day old data in a rapidly changing scenario.

But there IS additional data out there. The data on total number of patients in hospital with COVID in England alone has been published right up to today. And currently it stands at over 13,000. There's a delay in data from the other UK nations but if you factor in what they are likely to be, it's likely that the total UK hospital cases is now top side of 15,000.

 That's double what it was the week before Xmas.

And because hospital cases lag infections by 3 or so weeks, those total hospital cases are going to go MUCH higher.

The BBC journalists could easily have given an estimate of where we now are and properly inform people. It took me 20 seconds to find the numbers.

Just before anyone else jumps on this. What Billy’s link doesn’t show is that this graphic hasn’t just been put up, it was put up on 31st December:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274


And it’s hardly small print.

Billy - you are becoming more embarrassing by each post.

[drfchound]

When we have a chance to properly look back at who performed a service to the nation in this crisis, the BBC deserves a savaging.

It employs people to inform us about health issues.

They've just put this graphic up on their website

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/DD9F/production/_122553765_hospital_cases_uk_31dec-nc.png

"Nearly 12000 people in hospital with COVID" it says. Doesn't look like too big an increase does it? Maybe there's no reason for concern.

Then the small print. "Most recent data for all nations is from 29 December".

So they are showing 4 day old data in a rapidly changing scenario.

But there IS additional data out there. The data on total number of patients in hospital with COVID in England alone has been published right up to today. And currently it stands at over 13,000. There's a delay in data from the other UK nations but if you factor in what they are likely to be, it's likely that the total UK hospital cases is now top side of 15,000.

 That's double what it was the week before Xmas.

And because hospital cases lag infections by 3 or so weeks, those total hospital cases are going to go MUCH higher.

The BBC journalists could easily have given an estimate of where we now are and properly inform people. It took me 20 seconds to find the numbers.

Just before anyone else jumps on this. What Billy’s link doesn’t show is that this graphic hasn’t just been put up, it was put up on 31st December:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274


And it’s hardly small print.

Billy - you are becoming more embarrassing by each post.

[bpoolrover]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59848109

The bleeding obvious that some have been pointing out since the start of this crisis. If you don't control this virus, it locks down your economy for you. Anybody work in an job where the bosses keep a spare 25% of capacity for moments like these?

but to control it how you want to there will be no one at work because we will be in lockdown

[BillyStubbsTears]

The point is Bpool, there's no choice between lockdown or no lockdown.

The choice is between an orderly, planned lockdown or a chaotic, unplanned one.

You tell me how the economy, schools and hospitals work if 25% of staff are off ill at the same time? There will be mass, disorderly shutdowns. Last night we already had the first NHS trust call a Level 4 Critical Incident because of staff shortages. And we are nowhere near the peak.

This is why I was so despairing of the BBC last night publishing that 4 day out of date data in an article slavishly headed "Nothing in data supports new curbs - ministers".

What the BBC has become is a mouthpiece for Govt announcements that are presented without criticism or proper analysis. January is going to be f**king awful, but the BBC article last night did nothing to prepare people for that, or to question WHY a Govt that has just told us to "plan for" up to 25% staff absences is also saying that there's no reason not to just carry on.

[belton rover]

The point is Bpool, there's no choice between lockdown or no lockdown.

The choice is between an orderly, planned lockdown or a chaotic, unplanned one.

You tell me how the economy, schools and hospitals work if 25% of staff are off ill at the same time? There will be mass, disorderly shutdowns. Last night we already had the first NHS trust call a Level 4 Critical Incident because of staff shortages. And we are nowhere near the peak.

This is why I was so despairing of the BBC last night publishing that 4 day out of date data in an article slavishly headed "Nothing in data supports new curbs - ministers".

What the BBC has become is a mouthpiece for Govt announcements that are presented without criticism or proper analysis. January is going to be f**king awful, but the BBC article last night did nothing to prepare people for that, or to question WHY a Govt that has just told us to "plan for" up to 25% staff absences is also saying that there's no reason not to just carry on.

Will somebody who Billy isn’t ignoring quote this please so he can’t pretend not to read it. The article wasn’t from last night, Billy. You made that up.

Or lied about it, if you’d prefer.

[Branton Red]

Got to agree with criticism of the BBC on reporting on Covid on here.

I'm not convinced with arguments that the BBC is politically biased towards the Government - for me its indicative of the quality of its journalistic output going south considerably over the last 5 years or so.

Too much 'copy and paste' from other news outlets or in this case government pronouncements without any analysis of the content or opportunity to allow other people to air differing views.

They really need to spend more money on proper, serious journalists and on journalist training and less on the salaries of glorified celebrity presenter newsreaders whose job is simply to read an autocue and ask inane questions to correspondents.

Oh and drop the ridiculous, out-of-date and prejudicial insistence of news presenters speaking in RP (in fact a Home Counties accent) opening up opportunities to a broader range of people who happen to have regional accents.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The point is Bpool, there's no choice between lockdown or no lockdown.

The choice is between an orderly, planned lockdown or a chaotic, unplanned one.

You tell me how the economy, schools and hospitals work if 25% of staff are off ill at the same time? There will be mass, disorderly shutdowns. Last night we already had the first NHS trust call a Level 4 Critical Incident because of staff shortages. And we are nowhere near the peak.

This is why I was so despairing of the BBC last night publishing that 4 day out of date data in an article slavishly headed "Nothing in data supports new curbs - ministers".

What the BBC has become is a mouthpiece for Govt announcements that are presented without criticism or proper analysis. January is going to be f**king awful, but the BBC article last night did nothing to prepare people for that, or to question WHY a Govt that has just told us to "plan for" up to 25% staff absences is also saying that there's no reason not to just carry on.

And again from the BBC this morning.

"There are nearly 12,000 people in UK hospitals with Covid but that is far below the highest levels reached last winter."

That's now 5 day old data they are quoting, in an exponentially growing situation. The actual figure today is likely to be closer to 17,000. Total lack of responsibility by the BBC.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Still posting the same this evening on the daily roundup of COVID news.

"There are nearly 12,000 people in UK hospitals (with COVID)."

This after today's data shows there are 15,300 COVID cases in hospital in England and Scotland alone.

It's shockingly bad journalism.