Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 28, 2020, 07:22:35 PM

Login with username, password and session length

Affiliates and Campaigns

Twitter

Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 76972 times)

IDM, Dn2Dn0, Nudga, Copps is Magic and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Colin C No.3

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 1821
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1080 on March 25, 2020, 10:28:59 PM by Colin C No.3 »
I wonder why everyone takes the piss out of Dianne Abbott having once had an interview where she made a mistake with numbers?

Why is that so hilarious?

Why does no-one take the piss out of, say, Rory Stewart, who had exactly the same thing happen?

I wonder what it can be...
I remember seeing her on some late night ‘I’ll scratch your back if you’ll scratch mine’ political show (& I use the term political in its broadcast sense) with Jeffrey Archer.

The programme ended with them both sat side by side on foot stools, nudging one another & coming out with phrases like “Well I’ll give you that one Jeffrey” to which he’d reply “I’m sure it will be your turn to be on top next week” nudge nudge, wink wink..queue any vessel to puke into.

No ta. Not a politician I’d cross the road to shake hands with for all the good work they’d done during their long (& ongoing) political career.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1081 on March 25, 2020, 11:16:14 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
I'll upload the daily graph shortly.

Here's a brilliant little video on exponential growth of epidemics by the way. This might explain why folk who are familiar with maths on a daily basis were so scared about CV-19, from such an early time. And why any politician who, at those early times, pooh-poohed the small number of deaths, should never be trusted with a serious decision ever again.

https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1082 on March 25, 2020, 11:31:02 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Here's today's graph. I actually did a "Get the f**k in!" thing with my fist when today's number came out. Not quite on the level of the response when Butler scored at Charlton, but getting there.

It's getting more certain that the early social distancing that most of us started practicising a few weeks ago is paying dividends. Massive big ups to the whole country. Nothing certain yet, but if that's the case, and we don't f**k it up from here, it's looking like we might just get out of the first wave without the NHS reaching breaking point. Got to keep working at it though.


BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1083 on March 25, 2020, 11:38:04 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Numbers to look out for tomorrow.

60 or less and we are dropping below China.

60-90 and we are still broadly tracking them.

90-130 and we are rising above China but not horrendously.

Much above 130 would have us heading back towards USA/France levels, but we would need to have ~350 to catch up to them.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1084 on March 26, 2020, 12:53:45 AM by BillyStubbsTears »
Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

BigH

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 901
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1085 on March 26, 2020, 06:47:21 AM by BigH »
BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

Superspy

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 3009
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1086 on March 26, 2020, 07:23:12 AM by Superspy »
Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

Wonder if that's why there was a delay in the number being released? Maybe they're shifting the 24 hour measure period or something?

big fat yorkshire pudding

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 10280
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1087 on March 26, 2020, 07:23:19 AM by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

Also seen it mentioned they wont add people to the numbers without family consent, which seems weird.

Superspy

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 3009
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1088 on March 26, 2020, 07:24:55 AM by Superspy »
That can't be right, it almost completely defeats the purpose of tracking the numbers, surely? To the best of my knowledge every other death at any other point is recorded in some way in official figures so why would this be any different?

Donnywolf

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 13532
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1089 on March 26, 2020, 07:41:45 AM by Donnywolf »
First casualty of war is truth - it is always said

Does anyone have corroboration on Chinas death toll ? Spain said to be overtaking Chinas death toll figure

Anyone got the Italy v UK stats that were on here recently as I would like to see the updated version

Cheers DW 35.6 (Armpit Temp - checked every few hours)

knockers

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 1256
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1090 on March 26, 2020, 08:34:42 AM by knockers »
BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

They’ve done this on the BBC news site

nightporter

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 643
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1091 on March 26, 2020, 09:31:02 AM by nightporter »

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1092 on March 26, 2020, 09:32:44 AM by BillyStubbsTears »
BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

I'm.sure it is, but I'm not planning on doing anything with those numbers at the moment.

The whole point is that, until the numbers of deaths get into relatively big numbers in each region or country, the "trend" doesn't really exist. It's dominated by the randomness of when the deaths actually occur. Once you are getting into several 10s per day, the randomness dies down. 31 Vs 30 isn't a big difference. 2 Vs 1 is a huge difference.

Plus, I've got too much other stuff on to spend time drilling down into more detail. I'm just going to stick with the big picture for now.

Metalmicky

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2501
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1093 on March 26, 2020, 09:33:52 AM by Metalmicky »
Not sure if already posted - but I thought this was interesting...


BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1094 on March 26, 2020, 10:36:53 AM by BillyStubbsTears »
It is a nice graphic, but it is doing the rounds, sent by people (I say "people": I suspect Russian bots) who are suggesting that CV-19 is all being blown out of proportion.

That ignores the concept of exponential growth.

That graphic is just 10 days old. Already it is out of date. The number of deaths worldwide as of this morning is 21,200. (Edit: 11:05 - the figure is now 22,020...)

The global death toll is currently doubling about every 5-6 days. That equates to increasing tenfold every 2.5 weeks. Project that through to the end of April, and CV-19 is ninth on the list at the bottom of that graphic. Take it to early June and CV-19 will (if we don't stop it) have killed as many people in 5 months as AIDS has killed in 40 years.


So yeah. Pretty graphic. And a really REALLY dangerous one if people look at it and decide that they don't need to listen to advice on stopping the spread.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 11:09:49 AM by BillyStubbsTears »

Metalmicky

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2501
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1095 on March 26, 2020, 11:12:54 AM by Metalmicky »
It is a nice graphic

And that is why I put it on - no conspiracy or attempt to blow anything out of proportion...... at least not from me.

Copps is Magic

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 7748
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1096 on March 26, 2020, 11:19:20 AM by Copps is Magic »
One interesting study from Iceland, showing that there are 40 mutations of the virus there. On the positive side, apparently as the virus mutates - generally less deadly (but more contagious) strains of the virus spread. Another interesting finding is that one of those strains derived from a 'football match in England'

https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/forskere-sporet-40-mutationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island

Also, you may have seen in Northern Italy many doctors and mayors suggesting that the Atalanta vs Valencia match was a major source of the spread of the virus. They estimate 1/3rd (one third) of the Bergamo population was at that match.

We know the virus is aerosolised to a certain extent, to the extent that in confined spaces with close contact it can be transmitted via aerosolised droplets. There was some weird brief consensus a few weeks back among the football community that only if we put hand-sanitisers in football stadiums we could somehow avoid transmission. That was, in retrospect, very wrong.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

Copps is Magic

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 7748
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1097 on March 26, 2020, 11:22:26 AM by Copps is Magic »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4eu-h_owaI

I would recommend watching this guys videos. Very informative. This one talks about the role of 'fever' as a response of the body to fight viruses. In layman's terms, fever is a natural resposnse of the body and shouldn't be supressed - you body is literally cooking itself to produce good things to kills viruses.

But people chose over the counter medicines to supress fever...

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1098 on March 26, 2020, 01:01:23 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
It is a nice graphic

And that is why I put it on - no conspiracy or attempt to blow anything out of proportion...... at least not from me.

No problem. No finger pointing from me - I'm just saying this as a warning.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 22546
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1099 on March 26, 2020, 01:14:54 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Christ almighty! USA unemployment has gone up from 5.7 million in Feb to 9 million this month.

Filo

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 23534
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1100 on March 26, 2020, 01:57:56 PM by Filo »
3 more deaths in Scotland today
6 in Wales
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 02:56:10 PM by Filo »

Bristol Red Rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 7030
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1101 on March 26, 2020, 03:18:36 PM by Bristol Red Rover »
Love the graphic - as BST mentions, would be better if adjusted by population eg to present population. It does significantly miss out malaria, TB and others.

Bristol Red Rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 7030
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1102 on March 26, 2020, 03:21:30 PM by Bristol Red Rover »
One interesting study from Iceland, showing that there are 40 mutations of the virus there....

Mutations aren't something to be overly concerned with, as you say often they mutate to a weaker strain, but also there is a resistance to most if not all strains that people get from having contact from any variant. Not immunity but resistance, ie a less dangerous immune response by a partially primed system.

Metalmicky

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2501
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1103 on March 26, 2020, 04:06:23 PM by Metalmicky »
The news in Spain today is full of the story that the government bought a huge amount of unreliable tests from an uncertified source because they were cheaper.

Underlines what the UK Governments advisers have been saying about testing the tests and a bad test being worse than no test at all.


ChrisBx

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 223
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1104 on March 26, 2020, 06:08:38 PM by ChrisBx »
115 new deaths reported.

ian1980

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 848
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1105 on March 26, 2020, 06:16:50 PM by ian1980 »
115 is a bigger number than I’d hoped for today but could the number be out slightly if yesterday’s period wasn’t a full 24 hours meaning this period was longer??

Ie. If yesterday’s figure was 20 higher and today’s figure 20 lower, it wouldn’t look so bad a jump

« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 06:19:11 PM by ian1980 »

big fat yorkshire pudding

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 10280
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1106 on March 26, 2020, 06:19:50 PM by big fat yorkshire pudding »
No they did a short period followed by a normal 24hr period.  So he next few days will be interesting.

Dutch Uncle

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 5072
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1107 on March 26, 2020, 06:20:20 PM by Dutch Uncle »
Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?

Filo

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 23534
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1108 on March 26, 2020, 06:23:53 PM by Filo »

Copps is Magic

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 7748
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1109 on March 26, 2020, 06:44:02 PM by Copps is Magic »
Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?

I think what they have done is give figures for an 8 hour period 'yesterday' and give figures for a 24 hour period 'today', not overlapping. So if you added them up and divided by two you would technically have the figure for only a 16 hour period.

Its a little awkward, but technically now, the number of deaths for the last day is 115 (113?), as they announced.