Reight...

[DonnyBazR0ver]

It's useful to know as a guide to where we are and knowing that losing to Fleetwood and drawing to Rochdale were not disasters therefore it helps get a perspective on things.

Once we get to the run in with 10 games and less, any fall behind the required points target is harder to claw back. Our points per game didn't help one iota after the win at Leeds when we had 5 or 6 games left. 1 point would have done it but the rest is history! I think the word used at time to rate our chances of relegation was 'inconceivable'.

[dknward2]

Things will change more in the top 6 over the next few games as a few are playing each other so points will come down

[DonnyOsmond]

So far this season we have conceded, on average, one goal per game. There's no reason to believe that will change significantly over the remaining fixtures.

It has been rightly suggested we were short of striking capacity up until the last week or so. Nevertheless we have scored almost exactly 1.5 goals per game.

Does anyone doubt the 'new' strike force, over the remaining 16 games, will not be more potent?

Much depends how quickly the strikers settle in and whether they truly can match initial expectations, but our expected goal rate must surely now be considerably higher than it was 2 weeks ago. By some margin, in fact.

Are we now 50% better up front? Possibly more?

If that proves to be the case, logic would suggest a play-off finish is not an unreasonable expectation.

À 1.5xG rate has earned us the 2 points per game we've been gathering recently, but what might a 2.0xG be likely to deliver? If There's one extra goal per game in the new forwards then the xG could potentially reach 2.5.

By all means tell me I am being unrealistically optimistic?

If im being realistic we stand at the dawn of a new begining today, one that looks remarkably encouraging and vibrant. Such a pitty we are only ever one bad result away from a supporter implosion/ backlash on here.

Now is the time to hold our nerve. When did the immediate future last look quite this promising? And if promotion is not achieved this year, you would certainly not bet against it next, would you?

DM is a cool customer, not one to be rushed into rash signings to appease the baying Twitter mob. He looks to have played a blinder this window. How will things look with two more under his belt?

Time to believe.

Buckle up your seatbelts folks, this could be some ride...

I’ve got access to some of the best xG data available and our output throughout the season hasn’t been great. We are out performing the data at present. That’s probably not sustainable but with the new recruits, obviously not impossible to improve the output. Improving to 2.0 unlikely, to 2.5 is impossibly over the remaining games.

Yep. We've averaged the third worst xG per shot in League One, only Southend and Tranmere worse off. Luckily for us though we make the most shots in League One so get away with it! Just shows we're shooting from unrealistic positions/angles, especially when 50% of our shots are from outside of the box, but as a passive team that's gonna be the case as it gives the opposition more time to get in shape which leaves us with no choice but to shoot from distance against a low block. Okenabihrie will hopefully improve our shot quality, he's doing OK at the moment and we'll see how he carries that over the next few week.

At the other end we're looking quite good, with the fourth lowest xG per shot percentage in League One. Which shows our defence is doing it's job for the most part by keeping the opposition away from the danger areas. That goes nicely with the fact that Dieng out performs his xGC (expect goals conceded).


I reckon we have a chance of getting in the play-offs though. Ipswich have dropped out and look like falling further, Wycombe seem to have turned aswell so they'll probably drop out which does leave the 6th place open. Plenty of time for one team to put a run together, Gillingham are an interesting one, they're unbeaten in the last 12, although a fair few draws, will be tough for us to win. I reckon the other 5 are decided now though, Coventry, Rotherham, Sunderland, Peterborough and Portsmouth.

[drfchound]

So far this season we have conceded, on average, one goal per game. There's no reason to believe that will change significantly over the remaining fixtures.

It has been rightly suggested we were short of striking capacity up until the last week or so. Nevertheless we have scored almost exactly 1.5 goals per game.

Does anyone doubt the 'new' strike force, over the remaining 16 games, will not be more potent?

Much depends how quickly the strikers settle in and whether they truly can match initial expectations, but our expected goal rate must surely now be considerably higher than it was 2 weeks ago. By some margin, in fact.

Are we now 50% better up front? Possibly more?

If that proves to be the case, logic would suggest a play-off finish is not an unreasonable expectation.

À 1.5xG rate has earned us the 2 points per game we've been gathering recently, but what might a 2.0xG be likely to deliver? If There's one extra goal per game in the new forwards then the xG could potentially reach 2.5.

By all means tell me I am being unrealistically optimistic?

If im being realistic we stand at the dawn of a new begining today, one that looks remarkably encouraging and vibrant. Such a pitty we are only ever one bad result away from a supporter implosion/ backlash on here.

Now is the time to hold our nerve. When did the immediate future last look quite this promising? And if promotion is not achieved this year, you would certainly not bet against it next, would you?

DM is a cool customer, not one to be rushed into rash signings to appease the baying Twitter mob. He looks to have played a blinder this window. How will things look with two more under his belt?

Time to believe.

Buckle up your seatbelts folks, this could be some ride...

I’ve got access to some of the best xG data available and our output throughout the season hasn’t been great. We are out performing the data at present. That’s probably not sustainable but with the new recruits, obviously not impossible to improve the output. Improving to 2.0 unlikely, to 2.5 is impossibly over the remaining games.

Yep. We've averaged the third worst xG per shot in League One, only Southend and Tranmere worse off. Luckily for us though we make the most shots in League One so get away with it! Just shows we're shooting from unrealistic positions/angles, especially when 50% of our shots are from outside of the box, but as a passive team that's gonna be the case as it gives the opposition more time to get in shape which leaves us with no choice but to shoot from distance against a low block. Okenabihrie will hopefully improve our shot quality, he's doing OK at the moment and we'll see how he carries that over the next few week.

At the other end we're looking quite good, with the fourth lowest xG per shot percentage in League One. Which shows our defence is doing it's job for the most part by keeping the opposition away from the danger areas. That goes nicely with the fact that Dieng out performs his xGC (expect goals conceded).


I reckon we have a chance of getting in the play-offs though. Ipswich have dropped out and look like falling further, Wycombe seem to have turned aswell so they'll probably drop out which does leave the 6th place open. Plenty of time for one team to put a run together, Gillingham are an interesting one, they're unbeaten in the last 12, although a fair few draws, will be tough for us to win. I reckon the other 5 are decided now though, Coventry, Rotherham, Sunderland, Peterborough and Portsmouth.

Agreed on that last sentence DO.
I said myself a few games ago that I thought that we would be chasing sixth place only, a bit like last season.

[Prez]

Prediction table needs updating BST need to know if we have a realistic chance!

[adamtherover]

Prediction table needs updating BST need to know if we have a realistic chance!

looking at the table is all you need to know. .  10 games to play, 5 points behind..  there is a lot of twists and turns, buckle yourself in!!!!

[Prez]

I know Adam, just love BST predictions, always good fun.

[Campsall rover]

I know Adam, just love BST predictions, always good fun.

Only prediction i am making is Ipswich have blown it.

It’s game on. Beat Wimbledon next week is all we need to think about.

[Prez]

Ipswich blew it weeks ago Paul. Their form has been horrendous.

[Campsall rover]

Ipswich blew it weeks ago Paul. Their form has been horrendous.

A few weeks ago they had the opportunity to turn it round and get back in the race. Now it’s too late for them.

[NickDRFC]

I know Adam, just love BST predictions, always good fun.

Only prediction i am making is Ipswich have blown it.

It’s game on. Beat Wimbledon next week is all we need to think about.

Apart from your prediction a day or two ago that Cole would score today?

[Campsall rover]

I know Adam, just love BST predictions, always good fun.

Only prediction i am making is Ipswich have blown it.

It’s game on. Beat Wimbledon next week is all we need to think about.

Apart from your prediction a day or two ago that Cole would score today?

I meant Ramsey.  Well it wasn’t 0-0 just.

[BillyStubbsTears]

...it's that time of year.

BST's final points predictor.

This is based on all the sides' current form over the last 8 matches and extrapolating that through to the end of the season. Remember, I'm not predicting how many points each specific team will get. I'm predicting how many points each final position will end up with.

1st   92
2nd   87
+++++++++
3rd   84
4th   79
5th   77
6th   76
+++++++++
7th   74
8th   69
9th   69
10th   67

76 points for 6th place is a good bit higher than I'm been thinking. It's because 6 sides (including us) have hit very good form and are currently average 2+ points per game over the past 8 matches. That also explains why the predicted points totals for the top 2 positions are so high.

For what it's worth, I dont think the final points in positions 1,2 and 6 will be that high. But then I've often said that before and this predictor has usually been very close to the actual final totals. Going to be tough to hit 76 points if that really is the target. We'd need our final 16 games to be W9 D5 L2 or W10 D2 L4. Good as we are, I'm not sure we could do that.

Update after last night

1st   93
2nd   92
+++++++++
3rd   87
4th   84
5th   80
6th   73
+++++++++
7th   72
8th   69
9th   68
10th   67

OK. Here it is after today

1st   95
2nd   84
++++++++++++
3rd   80
4th   79
5th   79
6th   78
+++++++++++
7th   75
8th   72
9th   70
10th   68

Its settled down to something much closer to the first stab. I did think then second go was a problem because it came when so many teams were in unsustainably good form.

Whichever way you look at it, I don't see us breaking into the top 6.

[Campsall rover]

...it's that time of year.

BST's final points predictor.

This is based on all the sides' current form over the last 8 matches and extrapolating that through to the end of the season. Remember, I'm not predicting how many points each specific team will get. I'm predicting how many points each final position will end up with.

1st   92
2nd   87
+++++++++
3rd   84
4th   79
5th   77
6th   76
+++++++++
7th   74
8th   69
9th   69
10th   67

76 points for 6th place is a good bit higher than I'm been thinking. It's because 6 sides (including us) have hit very good form and are currently average 2+ points per game over the past 8 matches. That also explains why the predicted points totals for the top 2 positions are so high.

For what it's worth, I dont think the final points in positions 1,2 and 6 will be that high. But then I've often said that before and this predictor has usually been very close to the actual final totals. Going to be tough to hit 76 points if that really is the target. We'd need our final 16 games to be W9 D5 L2 or W10 D2 L4. Good as we are, I'm not sure we could do that.

Update after last night

1st   93
2nd   92
+++++++++
3rd   87
4th   84
5th   80
6th   73
+++++++++
7th   72
8th   69
9th   68
10th   67

OK. Here it is after today

1st   95
2nd   84
++++++++++++
3rd   80
4th   79
5th   79
6th   78
+++++++++++
7th   75
8th   72
9th   70
10th   68

Its settled down to something much closer to the first stab. I did think then second go was a problem because it came when so many teams were in unsustainably good form.

Whichever way you look at it, I don't see us breaking into the top 6.

Hope you have overestimated that points total BST. 
We would need 8 wins & 2 defeats or 7wins and 3 draws to get 78 points.

I don’t think you have allowed for all the points the pack are going to take off each other.
Personally 75 is the figure now i think we will need to finish 6th.
Well i certainly hope we don’t need any more points as it would take a monumental finish to the season.

But hey it’s all guess work, i don’t think you can turn it into a science.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

In a couple of games time, the league could look very different with a few teams looking over their shoulders. Perhaps only Coventry making a serious run for automatic.

Squeeky bums can have unexpected consequences!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Look at all the figures, I'd say 76 is probably the figure that 6th place will end up with. We're not going to make that. Be fun trying though. And I'd be delighted to be wrong on either score.

[dickos1]

I think if we get 2 points a game we will be close.
I think 74 would just about get you in. I can’t see 4 or 5 sides all getting two points a game which would need to happen for that total to be higher

[BillyStubbsTears]

There are six sides on 59 points. Three have 10 matches left, three have 9.

To hit 74 points, those six would need the following run in.

P9/10 W4 D3 L2/3. PPG 1.50/1.67

That means three of those sides would hit 74 points with upper-mid-table form for the last 10 games. The other three would make it with just-squeak-into-the-top-6 form.

It may well be that three of those sides don't do better than that, but I doubt many folk would bet on it. I'll stick with 76 points. That requires four sides to finish with

P9/10 W5 D2 L2/3 PPG 1.70/1.89

That's nothing more than solid play-off form - kind of what you expect from play-off level teams.


Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

[dickos1]

If you look at the form of a couple of those sides though they’re getting no more than 1.5 per game

[BillyStubbsTears]

Average PPG over the past 8 games for those 6 sides.

Portsmouth   1.875
Peterborough   2.375
Sunderland   1.75
Oxford   2.125
Wycombe   1.25
Fleetwood   2.5

Barring Wycombe, they are all in the sort of form that would get them more than 74 points.

No guarantee that recent form will continue of course, but I'd be surprised if 2 of them, in addition to Wycombe, had a significant dip in form.

Like I say, I very much hope I'm wrong. I think we will do very well to get more than about 72 points (P10 W5 D3 L2 needed for that) so we need several teams to stumble.

[dickos1]

I think Sunderland have had their good run now,

Anything other than a draw between Portsmouth and fleetwood on Tuesday is going to make it tougher

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's an interesting point.

If you take the last 8 games form and project it through the the end of the season (silly to do so, but it's a bit of fun) the top two are...


Coventry (top)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Fleetwood second.

They would pip Peterborough by 3 points and Oxford and Rotherham by 4.

I very much doubt that will happen, but it shows that Fleetwood are in stellar form. And I still think we wouldn't have been accused of daylight robbery if we'd taken something from our game there.  There was certainly no shame in losing it. What has probably killed us is the two performances at Gillingham and Shrewsbury.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think Sunderland have had their good run now,

You might well be right. But it's not right to say that they have been in poor form recently.

And in any case, we need THREE sides to stumble to open a credible door for us. It's possible but I'll be hoping rather then expecting it.

[dickos1]

Not poor form no, but even their current form would only get them to 74/75 points

Gives us a chance

[BillyStubbsTears]

Right.

So you need Sunderland to do no better. AND Wycombe not to pick up. AND another team to slip. AND us to finish the season with something like P10 W6 D2 L2.

None of those individually are outrageous. All of them together is a very long shot.

The bookies have us at 7/2 - 9/2 to make the top 6. I don't think many of us will be putting our life savings on at that price.

[Donnybob]

Is it not time that folk stopped talking about top 6?

There is simply one objective now, to finish 6th. That's all. That is the focus. Can we reach 6th place? A simple yes or no.

I do think automatic promotion is merely a pipedream. What on earth makes folk think this is remotely possible?

Most of the teams involved in the run-in have games against each other, the proverbial six-pointers, which is a crazy phrase. Simple maths say, win equals 3 points, someone else drops three. Draw and both drop two. No-one actually gains six. But I'm sure some will disagree.

Either way it does open up a pathway.  An opportunity to catch up/ capitalise for us and other rivals. The gap may seem daunting but other teams HAVE to drop points, like Portsmouth did yesterday. If they had won, Peterborough would have dropped three instead.

The table today means little. The opponents fixtures don't matter. The whole thing is in our own hands. It's all about winning. Draws are not good enough. If we can go on a winning run, 6th is easily within our sights. If we don't then it's time to plan for next season's assault on League One.

Honest opinion? It's tight. We make too many simple mistakes, too often fail to capitalise on the errors of others. We are seldom dominant for 90 minutes. Inconsistent. We are missing something in the engine room and will probably fail. We are still short of goal power.

Had we been anything like consistent over the season it would have been autos, without doubt, but we've been short, sadly.

[i_ateallthepies]

I think Sunderland have had their good run now,

Anything other than a draw between Portsmouth and fleetwood on Tuesday is going to make it tougher

Ordinarily, Dickos the draw is the best result for the teams around them but for us vying with four teams for that 6th spot one of them winning will mean they take 5th place (not a problem for us) and the other is weakened, making them just that bit easier for us to overtake.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'd agree with that Pies. What we really need if we are to have much chance is for 5 of the top 8 to pull right away, and take as many points as possible off the other three. Last thing we want is to have them share the points evenly.

So I'll be rooting for a result in Tuesday - but then just hope the loser goes into a trough.

[drfchound]

Is it not time that folk stopped talking about top 6?

There is simply one objective now, to finish 6th. That's all. That is the focus. Can we reach 6th place? A simple yes or no.

I do think automatic promotion is merely a pipedream. What on earth makes folk think this is remotely possible?

Most of the teams involved in the run-in have games against each other, the proverbial six-pointers, which is a crazy phrase. Simple maths say, win equals 3 points, someone else drops three. Draw and both drop two. No-one actually gains six. But I'm sure some will disagree.

Either way it does open up a pathway.  An opportunity to catch up/ capitalise for us and other rivals. The gap may seem daunting but other teams HAVE to drop points, like Portsmouth did yesterday. If they had won, Peterborough would have dropped three instead.

The table today means little. The opponents fixtures don't matter. The whole thing is in our own hands. It's all about winning. Draws are not good enough. If we can go on a winning run, 6th is easily within our sights. If we don't then it's time to plan for next season's assault on League One.

Honest opinion? It's tight. We make too many simple mistakes, too often fail to capitalise on the errors of others. We are seldom dominant for 90 minutes. Inconsistent. We are missing something in the engine room and will probably fail. We are still short of goal power.

Had we been anything like consistent over the season it would have been autos, without doubt, but we've been short, sadly.

Bob, all the teams above us have to play at least two games against each other and some play four matches against their near rivals.
We have to play two of the teams above us.

However, I disagree that our fate is in our own hands.
We need at least three teams to cock their season up, even if we have this unlikely throng of wins that some people are expecting.

[Campsall rover]

Is it not time that folk stopped talking about top 6?

There is simply one objective now, to finish 6th. That's all. That is the focus. Can we reach 6th place? A simple yes or no.

I do think automatic promotion is merely a pipedream. What on earth makes folk think this is remotely possible?

Most of the teams involved in the run-in have games against each other, the proverbial six-pointers, which is a crazy phrase. Simple maths say, win equals 3 points, someone else drops three. Draw and both drop two. No-one actually gains six. But I'm sure some will disagree.

Either way it does open up a pathway.  An opportunity to catch up/ capitalise for us and other rivals. The gap may seem daunting but other teams HAVE to drop points, like Portsmouth did yesterday. If they had won, Peterborough would have dropped three instead.

The table today means little. The opponents fixtures don't matter. The whole thing is in our own hands. It's all about winning. Draws are not good enough. If we can go on a winning run, 6th is easily within our sights. If we don't then it's time to plan for next season's assault on League One.

Honest opinion? It's tight. We make too many simple mistakes, too often fail to capitalise on the errors of others. We are seldom dominant for 90 minutes. Inconsistent. We are missing something in the engine room and will probably fail. We are still short of goal power.

Had we been anything like consistent over the season it would have been autos, without doubt, but we've been short, sadly.

Bob, all the teams above us have to play at least two games against each other and some play four matches against their near rivals.
We have to play two of the teams above us.

However, I disagree that our fate is in our own hands.
We need at least three teams to cock their season up, even if we have this unlikely throng of wins that some people are expecting.

It is in our own hands hound. Win all our games and we will be in the play offs. In fact if we did that we could feasibly finish 2nd in the table.
Yes i know that’s not going to happen but it is definitely in our own hands. If we have a a better points total of 5 or more than some our rivals we will make the play offs. It is impossible for all the teams above us to win all their matches. Some might but all of them is not possible due to playing each other.