Meanwhile, in Boris's Britain...

[BillyStubbsTears]

...GDP growth in the final quarter of 2019 was 0.0%.

In the first 9 months of the financial year, our economy grew by 0.4%. The long-term average expected growth over 9 months is about 1.7%.

So that's ANOTHER £30bn chucked away in the Brexit slowdown.

Still. I'm sure it's all someone else's fault.

[River Don]

If this virus is as contagious as it looks to be, then it is going to be very difficult to judge what the effects of Brexit are ithe coming months.

When factories are shutting and cities are emptied then we are looking at severe disruption to the global economy.

I can't help but think, this new government is going to be primarily focussed on coping with this for sometime.

[Herbert Anchovy]

...and to add some context. Here are some year on year growth figures;

US - +2.3%
Canada - + 1.7%
Japan - + 1.7%
UK - + 1.1%
Eurozone - + 1%
France - + 0.8%
Germany - + 0.5%
Italy - 0.0

[Ldr]

So we outgrew the Eurozone?

[Herbert Anchovy]

So we outgrew the Eurozone?

Depends how you define ‘outgrew’. However our growth in q4 2019 when compared to q4 2018 was 1.1% compared against 1% in the euro zone.

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA/Ldr.

Our recent economic "growth" in 2019 was heavily distorted by companies building up stocks as insurance against us crashing out of the EU with No Deal back in March.

As a result, 1st quarter apparent economic activity was higher than expected.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/10/uk-economic-growth-picks-up-as-stockpiling-boosts-manufacturing

In the 3 quarters since then, our growth has been
-0.1%
+0.5%
0.0%

Unless we get a significan boost this quarter, our growth for FY 2019/20 will be a good way below the EU average.

And remember. The EU is coming down from a mini-boom they experienced in 2016-2018, when quarterly growth averaged something around 0.6-0.7%, while ours limped along at something like half that.

So even if we WERE doing marginally better than the EU at the moment, we've already lost a lot of economic ground since the Referendum, and we'd need several years of considerably better growth than theirs just to get back to the relative position we were in back in 2016.

[Sprotyrover]

HA/Ldr.

Our recent economic "growth" in 2019 was heavily distorted by companies building up stocks as insurance against us crashing out of the EU with No Deal back in March.

As a result, 1st quarter apparent economic activity was higher than expected.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/10/uk-economic-growth-picks-up-as-stockpiling-boosts-manufacturing

In the 3 quarters since then, our growth has been
-0.1%
+0.5%
0.0%

Unless we get a significan boost this quarter, our growth for FY 2019/20 will be a good way below the EU average.

And remember. The EU is coming down from a mini-boom they experienced in 2016-2018, when quarterly growth averaged something around 0.6-0.7%, while ours limped along at something like half that.

So even if we WERE doing marginally better than the EU at the moment, we've already lost a lot of economic ground since the Referendum, and we'd need several years of considerably better growth than theirs just to get back to the relative position we were in back in 2016.

I sometimes worry about you Billy, last year we as a Nation out performed the Euro zone, end of!

[wilts rover]

Ireland is expected to have a growth rate of 6% for 2019 - following on from 8% in 2018.

That's Ireland, the country that various hedge funds including that of the loyal Brexiter Jacob Rees-Mogg, moved their European headquarters to following the referendum vote. Now why would he do that if he expected them to perform worse than us, hmm?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/irish-reunification-seen-as-risk-after-election-surge-for-sinn-fein.html

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty.

That post is like a football fan watching a team that has under-performed against its local rivals for four years crowing that it's just got a draw.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Actually, just thinking about it, there's a much better analogy.

GDP growth is like speed in a race. The higher the speed, the faster your distance increases over time. The higher your GDP growth, the faster your wealth increases over time.

Back in the 50s, when the EEC was founded, we were a lot wealthier than Germany, France, Italy etc. Over the next 20 years, they had much higher economic growth and made up that gap or overtook us. THAT is why we were so desperate to join in the 70s.

For the next 40 years, our growth outpaced most of Europe and we caught up most of the distance on Germany, overtook France and left Italy well behind.

THAT was what the EU did for us.

Since the vote in 2016, our GDP growth has collapsed and stayed low. For 2-3 years, all of Europe comfortably outpaced us. Yes, they've had a slowdown but they have only dropped back to our pace after surging ahead.

Sproty, crowing about our growth, possibly, being 0.1% higher than the EU in 2019 is like watching a race where your man runs at half the pace of the pack for two and a half laps, then the pack slows down to his pace, already a lap ahead, and you shout "Look! I TOLD you we'd be faster not sticking with the pack!"

You need to face facts. There are plenty of reasons you can argue for why you supported Brexit. But if one of them is that we're going to do better than Europe economically, you're deluding yourself.

[Ldr]

That's what the EEC did for us BST. As has been said before. If it had remained the EEC rather than forcing down the path of a federal Europe then 2016 would never of happened

[selby]

  Wilts, The Irish Government has just been given a kicking in an election because of the cost of living etc. All roses? I don't think so buddy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's what the EEC did for us BST. As has been said before. If it had remained the EEC rather than forcing down the path of a federal Europe then 2016 would never of happened

Ldr.

The EEC didn't exist after about 1985.

Read this. Even the first paragraph will do.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-uks-place-in-world.html?m=1

"The EU is mostly about economics. To counterpoise sovereignty as an alternative perspective to economics misses an important point: most EU rules stem from the economics of free trade within the EU. The EU wants common regulations to make it easier to trade. The EU wants restrictions on state aid to prevent countries giving their own firms an advantage over others in the union. Much the same applies to labour market and environmental standards."

The Right have sold us this line that the EU was an evil plot to subjugate us. What it actually is, is a means of economically binding together the most fragmented section of humanity, to make them richer and less likely to kill each other as they have done with gusto for the past 2000 years.

The sovereignty issue is ridiculous. When people get on their high horse about sovereignty, and are then asked to list 5 thinks that the EU has forced us to do, or stopped us from doing, they have no answer.

It's a principle, apparently. We're choosing to make ourselves weaker and poorer because of the defence of some abstract concept that no-one can explain.

[wilts rover]

  Wilts, The Irish Government has just been given a kicking in an election because of the cost of living etc. All roses? I don't think so buddy.

So a high GDP and growth rate isn't a good thing then selby?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The problem in Ireland is not growth. They've got plenty of that. It's the unfairness of the way that the very right-wing Fine Gael party has distributed those proceeds. THAT is the reason for the unorecendented lurch to the left of the Irish electorate.

[wilts rover]

Well Sproty has a league table where he believes that countries which have a higher growth rate are doing better than others?

Yet Selby thinks that a country with the highest growth rate in Europe for the past two years is not so rosy?

They can't both be right. High growth is either good or bad - it can't be both?

They can both be wrong tho. A high growth rate doesn't tell you how well a country is doing - it only tells you that some people in that country are doing well.

The trick for politicians is how they can convince the people who are not doing so well who is to 'blame' for their inequality. You can fool all of the people some of the time....

[Padge_DRFC]

Really good from the USA. Just shows what a good leader does

[BillyStubbsTears]

What's really good from the USA?

[Not Now Kato]

Well Sproty has a league table where he believes that countries which have a higher growth rate are doing better than others?

Yet Selby thinks that a country with the highest growth rate in Europe for the past two years is not so rosy?

They can't both be right. High growth is either good or bad - it can't be both?

They can both be wrong tho. A high growth rate doesn't tell you how well a country is doing - it only tells you that some people in that country are doing well.

The trick for politicians is how they can convince the people who are not doing so well who is to 'blame' for their inequality. You can fool all of the people some of the time....

Ah, but to be successful in politics you only have to fool most of the people most of the time! 
 
Something that Trump and Johnson, (oh all right, Cummings), appear to be very good at.

[SydneyRover]

Looks like the CumJo team is ready to rock and roll the knock throughs on Downing st are near complete, it's going to be the swinging 60s all over again.

[DonnyOsmond]

Really good from the USA. Just shows what a good leader does

You must be a big fan of Varadkar then.