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Author Topic: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes  (Read 4571 times)

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Alickismyhero

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #30 on March 07, 2020, 12:40:30 pm by Alickismyhero »
I think you talk a lot of sense BST.



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rtid88

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #31 on March 07, 2020, 01:11:17 pm by rtid88 »
Normally agree with a lot you say BST but the fact is, China is a grossly over populated country, with large parts that have hygiene levels that are utterly shocking. You simply cannot compare the UK to China, yes there will be potentially 1,000's, maybe 10's of thousands that are infected with this illness but the death rate and the spread of it will be nowhere near that of countries like China or Iran.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #32 on March 07, 2020, 01:18:08 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Rtid.

1) Have you been to a big Chinese city? I've not seen much but what I have seen has hygiene levels that are at least on a par with ours.

2) England is a more densely populated place than China.

3) If you don't buy any of that, what about the death rate in Italy.

What I truly don't get about this is that there are experts who spend every working day telling us how dangerous this is. What makes people think their gut feeling is a better guide to what might happen?

rtid88

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #33 on March 07, 2020, 01:22:59 pm by rtid88 »
How about the death rate in Germany of 0%??

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #34 on March 07, 2020, 01:29:34 pm by IDM »
Rtid.

1) Have you been to a big Chinese city? I've not seen much but what I have seen has hygiene levels that are at least on a par with ours.

2) England is a more densely populated place than China.

3) If you don't buy any of that, what about the death rate in Italy.

What I truly don't get about this is that there are experts who spend every working day telling us how dangerous this is. What makes people think their gut feeling is a better guide to what might happen?

That’s what happens a lot these days..  folks see headlines and make judgements without further investigation, and then it spreads via social media.


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #35 on March 07, 2020, 01:34:12 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
How about the death rate in Germany of 0%??

Forgive me but that's just a silly comparison. You can't look at countries where the outbreak has only just started.

Our mortality rate was 0% 48 hours ago. Today it's 1.2%. I wouldn't take either of those figures as the definitive value.

rtid88

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #36 on March 07, 2020, 01:40:01 pm by rtid88 »
Germany has had over 600 cases, the 5th most of any country, I would hardly say the outbreak has just started.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #37 on March 07, 2020, 02:00:41 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Apologies. I shouldn't have said it was silly. But you do need to look at this a bit further.

The outbreak in Germany has suddenly exploded. A week ago there were fewer than 100 cases. THAT'S what I mean about it being in the early stages. It generally takes a few days before fatalities start emerging, and it wouldn't have been statistically nonsense for them to have no fatalities in the first 1-200 cases. Also, it is possible that the first few hundred cases are not in a statistically representative group of the population. Maybe there weren't many old/ill people in the first couple of hundred cases? I'll guarantee you they won't have zero fatalities this time next week.

Meanwhile, you can't look at Germany and say "it won't be as bad as they say" while ignoring France, Italy, Spain, USA, Australia etc, all of which have current fatality rates higher than the 1% figure.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 02:04:12 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #38 on March 07, 2020, 02:03:25 pm by SydneyRover »

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #39 on March 07, 2020, 02:16:10 pm by dickos1 »
The two people who had it in York a few weeks back had been going about their daily business for days before they got diagnosed, yet nobody else has caught this virus.
It’s nonsense to suggest hundreds of thousands of people are going to die,

If it was as serious as that the Cheltenham festival for one wouldn’t be going ahead, well over 500k people there mingling.
It wouldn’t be happening

On the one hand, we have professors of epidemiology talking about 10s of millions of people in the UK catching this virus and a death rate of 1%.

On the other, you have the man who, a couple of weeks ago reckoned Peterborough had nailed down an automatic promotion slot saying that is nonsense.

Choices, choices...who to believe?

Who said Peterborough had nailed down an automatic promotion spot.
You making stuff up again billy

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #40 on March 07, 2020, 02:18:59 pm by dickos1 »
The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #41 on March 07, 2020, 02:23:30 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Forgive me Dickos. I must have misunderstood when you said they looked like comfortably getting a too two place.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276147.msg948145#msg948145

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #42 on March 07, 2020, 02:30:35 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus

I'll repeat the core of the problem. Really patiently because you seem to have missed why the head of the WHO is so concerned about this.

1) Elderly people are still "people". The suggestion that it's somehow OK if several tens of millions of them worldwide have their lives cut short, is, frankly, disgusting.

2) When epidemics like this reach their peak, the peak is very big and cones very, very quickly.

The people who are experts in this say that 50% of the infections will occur over a 3 week period. And the lowest reasonable estimate of the total number of infections that we can expect is about 15% of the population. And indications at the moment are that around 10% of infections have serious effects, and 1% lead to death.

Do the numbers. That suggests that, if we don't control this, over a three week period in a month or two, we in the UK will have 500,000 seriously ill people to deal with (we have 100,000 beds in the NHS) and 50,000 excess deaths (you'd normally expect 5000 over that period).

THAT is why people who think about this are deeply concerned, and why "meh" is not the response of a serious adult.

rtid88

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #43 on March 07, 2020, 04:04:54 pm by rtid88 »
The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus

I'll repeat the core of the problem. Really patiently because you seem to have missed why the head of the WHO is so concerned about this.

1) Elderly people are still "people". The suggestion that it's somehow OK if several tens of millions of them worldwide have their lives cut short, is, frankly, disgusting.

2) When epidemics like this reach their peak, the peak is very big and cones very, very quickly.

The people who are experts in this say that 50% of the infections will occur over a 3 week period. And the lowest reasonable estimate of the total number of infections that we can expect is about 15% of the population. And indications at the moment are that around 10% of infections have serious effects, and 1% lead to death.

Do the numbers. That suggests that, if we don't control this, over a three week period in a month or two, we in the UK will have 500,000 seriously ill people to deal with (we have 100,000 beds in the NHS) and 50,000 excess deaths (you'd normally expect 5000 over that period).

THAT is why people who think about this are deeply concerned, and why "meh" is not the response of a serious adult.
Fact is your figures don't stack up BST.... There have only been 80,000 cases in China after 2 months... The chances are the numbers in the UK will be lower therefore there won't be 500,000 people in a month or two in the UK with disease. The UK is cleaner, has a much smaller population, a much better heath system and a much more active media (as horrendous as it is!) that will be publishing this constantly!

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #44 on March 07, 2020, 05:02:50 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Rtid.

Yes. Because China basically has been shut down for 6 weeks. Travel pretty much stopped. Factories, offices, schools, universities closed. People required to stay in their homes under threat of arrest.

The people who are showing China as an example if why the virus will not spread are precisely the ones who are saying we shouldn't over-react by taking drastic measures to control it.

One or the other. Not both.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #45 on March 07, 2020, 05:24:36 pm by Bentley Bullet »
BB.

The fact that you read posts from me saying we should all be prepared to do what we are advised by the Govt, and conclude from that that there appears to be an "underlying political whinge to the points you make" suggests you're having a problem here.

You then go on to criticise my predictions by raising the issue of what might have happened after a crash out hard Brexit 12 months ago. And you point out that those predictions didn't happen. But you ignore the fact that the crash out hard Brexit didn't happen.

You have a weird obsession with me and what I say. Or, more to the point, what your bizarre caracature of me in your head says. You have this unsettling need to have an argument with someone who doesn't exist. I genuinely worry about you.

BST, as serious as this situation is you still use it to gain political smarty points, like ridiculing the government's idea to bring back retired doctors, for instance. It's that sort of whinging that I have a problem with.  Also, like condemning the use of the name Wuhan flu. If that's the case, why isn't Asian flu, or Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) the same? all of a sudden, naming the virus after its place of origin is called a blame game!

dickos1

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #46 on March 07, 2020, 06:07:18 pm by dickos1 »
The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus

I'll repeat the core of the problem. Really patiently because you seem to have missed why the head of the WHO is so concerned about this.

1) Elderly people are still "people". The suggestion that it's somehow OK if several tens of millions of them worldwide have their lives cut short, is, frankly, disgusting.

2) When epidemics like this reach their peak, the peak is very big and cones very, very quickly.

The people who are experts in this say that 50% of the infections will occur over a 3 week period. And the lowest reasonable estimate of the total number of infections that we can expect is about 15% of the population. And indications at the moment are that around 10% of infections have serious effects, and 1% lead to death.

Do the numbers. That suggests that, if we don't control this, over a three week period in a month or two, we in the UK will have 500,000 seriously ill people to deal with (we have 100,000 beds in the NHS) and 50,000 excess deaths (you'd normally expect 5000 over that period).

THAT is why people who think about this are deeply concerned, and why "meh" is not the response of a serious adult.

Of course elderly people matter, but your standard flu kills thousands of them every single year. Yet there isn’t any of this panic.
You keep quoting all these end of the world panic figures but there are plenty of other doctors and scientists quoting the complete opposite

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #47 on March 07, 2020, 06:17:22 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Go on. Give us some. And explain why we should trust them instead of people like the head of the World Health Organisation and the heads of public health bodies in the UK.

Explain why China took such drastic action if it is nothing to worry about.

Explain why Italy, France, Switzerland and Germany are following suit.

I assume all of them are in panic mode and over-reacting, whereas you have this sussed. Is that it?

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #48 on March 08, 2020, 12:58:29 pm by ravenrover »
Rtid.

1) Have you been to a big Chinese city? I've not seen much but what I have seen has hygiene levels that are at least on a par with ours.

2) England is a more densely populated place than China.

3) If you don't buy any of that, what about the death rate in Italy.

What I truly don't get about this is that there are experts who spend every working day telling us how dangerous this is. What makes people think their gut feeling is a better guide to what might happen?
I have been to Beijing and out in the sticks when I worked there, believe you me the hygiene facilities are pretty dire outside of the touristy hotels. And that also includes the off tourist spots of Beijing.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #49 on March 08, 2020, 01:03:55 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Raven.

Point taken. You will certainly know more than me about China.

But what about Italy? Lombardy is one of the most advanced regions anywhere on earth. And it's going through there like a dose of salts.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #50 on March 08, 2020, 02:34:08 pm by ravenrover »
If only we knew the true figures from China. Agreed but why in only one hotspot in the whole of Italy/Europe?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #51 on March 08, 2020, 02:56:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Because it hit there first. It's only a "hotspot" because they are a week or two ahead of everywhere else in Europe.

Unchecked, the number of infections grows exponentially in the early stages. We currently have around the same number of recorded cases that Italy had around 24-25 February. That's less than 2 weeks ago. France and Germany have around the same number that Italy had last Saturday.

Without taking drastic measures, we WILL see figures here in the thousands within about a week, and figures in the 10s of thousands within about 3-4 weeks. Then we are into serious crisis mode.

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #52 on March 08, 2020, 04:29:02 pm by Ldr »
All, just accept BST needs to panic and he needs us all to panic with him.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #53 on March 08, 2020, 04:33:31 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Thank you for that incredibly useful contribution Ldr.

With my po-face on, it;s not about panicking. It's about treating seriously a threat that could kill several hundred thousand of us, and doing the things we need to do to minimise that threat.

Feel free to keep making lame jokes about it if you like. Just wash your hands after you've done it.

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #54 on March 08, 2020, 04:38:40 pm by Ldr »
It wasnt a joke, it was a serious observation. How do you get any joy from life when you are so constantly worrying about everything?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #55 on March 08, 2020, 04:43:40 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I take plenty of enjoyment from plenty of things, while also thinking about problems ahead and planning for them.

Sometimes I'm serious.
Sometimes I'm daft.
Sometimes I'm concerned.
Sometimes I'm laid back.
Sometimes I'm angry.
Sometimes I'm flippant.

Who'd have thought adults could be multi-facetted, eh?

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #56 on March 08, 2020, 04:50:24 pm by DonnyOsmond »
Normally agree with a lot you say BST but the fact is, China is a grossly over populated country, with large parts that have hygiene levels that are utterly shocking. You simply cannot compare the UK to China, yes there will be potentially 1,000's, maybe 10's of thousands that are infected with this illness but the death rate and the spread of it will be nowhere near that of countries like China or Iran.

Like Italy?

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #57 on March 08, 2020, 05:23:22 pm by Filo »
5 years jail in Russia if you don’t self isolate 😳

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #58 on March 08, 2020, 05:54:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
What's the betting the odd political opponent of Putin, or campaigning journalist is found to have broken the self-isolation laws? It'd be cleaner than having them fall out of upstairs windows or carelessly walk into bullets as they have a habit of doing.

The Red Baron

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Re: Coronavirus death in Milton Keynes
« Reply #59 on March 08, 2020, 07:58:23 pm by The Red Baron »
I'm genuinely puzzled by the difference between these numbers.

Italy- 7,375 cases, 366 deaths, 650 serious/ critically ill

South Korea- 7,313 cases, 50 deaths, 36 serious/ critically ill

I have no answers but I can't see why the death/ critical figures should be so radically different.

 

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