Contracts

[BillyStubbsTears]

ND.

Ok. I'll give you a better analogy.

Imagine if astronomers found a large meteorite heading towards earth.

They can map out it's trajectory. They reckon it's going to land in Northern England. They can't be absolutely certain where. They don't know how it will break up in the atmosphere. But they know that, if their calculations are right, it's coming down in North England and it is big enough to destroy a whole city.

Would you refuse to belief them because it's just based on mathematical predictions? Because you can't see the meteorite coming? Because this Isn't an exact prediction?

Or would you evacuate?

And then, a month later, when the meteorite was still a long way off, when the astronomers said it was still following pretty much exactly the path their models predicted. Would you still refuse to believe them?

That's not an attempt to be a smart arse. I'm just genuinely baffled that anyone can refuse to accept the trajectory we are on. And where it takes us. Fast.

Our deaths are doubling every 2-3 days. We have 180 now. Follow the trend. At that rate, by mid April we'd have 100k-1 million dead. What do you think is going to stop that from happening?

Regarding death rates, it's pointless looking at the published cases. That depends on how efficient the testing is. It's well established  that Italy (and us for that) have been very slow to get testing. So the confirmed number of cases is a tiny fraction of what the modellers think the actual number is. In our case, they reckon there are 20 times more actual cases than recorded ones.

[NewDonny]

Dutch.

Blessed are the Peacemakers!

ND. You are right in saying that no-one can know with certainty what's going to happen. That's how the world works. There is uncertainty in our every action.

You can't know for certain when you cross the road that someone won't come round the corner down there at 150mph and wipe you out. But you still cross the road.

You can't know for certain that you'd die if you jump off a 50 foot cliff. But you still choose not to.

On the topic of the virus, no, I agree, we cannot know for certain what will happen. But we CAN look at the scientific indicators.

They say that there is no known mechanism to stop the virus, once it is widespread, other than allowing 60+% of the population to catch it and developing herd immunity, or severely locking down the country until we are able to vaccinate the population.

They say that typically 1% of the people who catch it will die.

They say that, typically, maybe 5% of the people who catch it get very, very ill and need serious medical attention.

We knew all that in early February. From late February, when we saw it spreading seriously out of China, we knew that the early attempts to contain it had failed. And from then on, we KNEW as well as we can know anything that we were facing a choice between 100s of thousands of deaths in the UK, or the most extreme shock to our social and work lives, and or economy that any of us could ever imagine.

You may not like that story, but it is undeniable, based on what we know of this virus and typical epidemiology.

It MAY be that something we haven't thought of comes along and stops the virus. But that hasn't happened in the past. So expecting it to do so this time is based on nothing but hope.

Now let me explain why I have been so vocal about this.

I saw this coming from late Feb. I was looking at the rate of spread and doing my own calculations as to where we would be by April.

Those calculations scared the bejaysus out of me.

And then I sat down with the lads who work for my company and I shared the calcs with them. We had three major contracts, all of which were due to be completed at the end of April. No income for us until we'd submitted the final reports. I told them, bluntly, that if the country hit a crisis in April without us completing those contracts, we'd have enough money to pay salaries until June and then that was it. So I asked them to work evenings and weekends throughout March to get the work finished early. We've just submitted the last of the reports and we can now invoice for sums that will allow me to pay salaries until past Xmas, even if the Govt does nothing to support us.

What sort of a hypocrite would I have been if I'd been doing that in my own life and not sharing the understanding that drove us to do that with other people?

I'm not trying to win any debates here. I'm not goin gout of my way to upset anyone. I've just been sharing what was blindingly obvious when you sat down and looked at the facts. I've tried to set out bluntly what is coming so that people can make their own decisions. I don't want to have an argument with you about this and I don't WANT to upset anyone by my posts, but if my posts DO upset people, I won't lose much sleep over that. If they have helped one person prepare for what we are now facing, then that's worth 50 people deciding they don't like me.

BST - I am a seasoned business professional just like you and from the sounds of things have the very same business challenges than you do with this virus, albeit on a larger scale by the sound of things but then again I might be wrong.

I just don't accept your hypothasis I am afraid. Forgive me but I deal in hard facts, always have and always will do and there are just not enough facts at the moment to form a proper opinion or enable us to properly plan. In fact what we do know about the virus and the worlds reaction at the moment are at complete odds with each other. You use examples like crossing the road and jumping off cliffs but its simple, use a pedestrian crossing or pedestrian lights or the proper places available for us to cross a road and don't jump of 50 foot cliffs (I mean why would you) and you drastically reduce your chances of being killed to practically nothing - those are facts.

Unfortunately there are no such facts available at this moment in time to help us in dealing with this Corona Virus. Everything we are being told and fed is based on statistics, formula & mathematics, certainly no facts that help us with how we beat it, or how long its going to last. So for me you and others are guessing but putting your opinions out there masqueraded as facts when they are not, they are just your personal opinion.

So here's a question for your theories BST, I am interested in your answer: Why have China, Italy & Iran seemingly been hit hardest with this virus, both in terms of the number of cases reported and the number of deaths?

Another question for you: Why has Italy twice the number of reported cases than China, a country that is much, much larger than Italy and why is Italys' mortality rate now far in excess of Chinas when it has almost half as many reported cases?

ND - I bow to your knowledge as a "seasoned profssional" who is not interested in scoring points. However you seem to be missing a fundamental perspective. In China the state keep order in  things like this. No deviation you do as the state tells you. If they can build 2 hospitals in 6 days that is an amazing achievement. So yestersday no new cases announced. That should be a plateau we should aspire to. Italy a more laid back people, (my favourite holiday destination) but very more ingrained in a more touching society-which normally is a virtue. I understand that even priests have been done for holding funerals outside of guidelines, so what I am saying is this. Not all cultures in the world are same. Whether you agree with the Chinese or Italian culture or political system it is asking whole nations to change major way of life is always difficult in a short timescale. That is the crux really-hope that answers your point?

Good points and perfectly plausable SE, I too love that part of the world too.

[selby]

  Whether right or wrong with statistics and projections, if people don't now take things seriously and conform with the measures being put in place things will get worse than they need to.
  I would like to think that on some future date not that far in the future everyone on this forum, and as many as possible of this country and any other will come through this mounting disaster, and once more get on with their every day life.

[wilts rover]

You’re right ND, no-one knows what is going to happen, but if we do know one thing, it’s the facts and figures from around the World that tells us what has happened already. Those facts, at least, gives the normal man-in-the-street some idea of how bad it could get here. It doesn’t necessarily mean it will, and we are going to some lengths to mitigate, but nevertheless, we have been duly informed and warned of the consequences.

I can’t work out what the PM was saying today, in that he said we’ll beat this thing and he put a 12 week timescale on it. That is either foolhardy, or he knows more than he’s letting on, hopefully for the good of everyone.

Take care everyone.

People in general are often naively supportive of reassurances. Unless you are heavily involved in politics and have a defined view often (not always) you look at things from what the state /Sun says. Unfortunately  that is not my view. I see a PM who doesn't have a clue how to resolve this. He has just come out and said private renters will have eviction rights and its still very unclear what zero hours/gig economy workers rights are. This despite his useful fool promoted beyond his abilities chancellor just having announced a budget.
If you want an example of this naivety consider this. In WW2 my mum and dad and all the population (they were at school) carred gas masks in case of a Nazi gas attack. Reassured. I bet they wouldn't have lasted 10 seconds on a full on gas attack. Point is  it "reassured" the public- no mass panic. This is just the same in terms of the current reassurances - not correlating the two in terms of scale/gravity, just the public desparately need an orderly state resumed. This will not happen for months but we don't need panic just a strategy- popular or not to deal with the situation. How much bog roll, beans, dried pasta are in some people's possession is staggering- are they selling it on e-bay yet?

You say the PM doesn't have a clue. Show me, someone who does, this is a new virus and has taken over the world. They have to learn as they go along and adjust accordingly. The announcements made so far are the best of any other country and I am sure the measures put in place wiil have an effect on beating this virus, but only if people abide by them. Unfortunately, there are thousands of selfish and ignorant folk out there that are not helping.

Rubbish (to the first bit I wholeheartedly agree with your last sentence).

Johnson has been contradictaroy in his messaging, slow to respond, and reactive when he should have been proacative.

Why has he only just discovered we don't have enough ICU ventillators? Why have NHS staff& GP's not been given full PPE? Why was 'herd immunity' declared to be the solution to the crises - then denied a week later?

He has had two months extra warning to prepare for this don't forget. Two months.

Who does know. Well this lady here for one. The South Korea ambassador interviewed on the Marr show last Sunday saying how they brought the epidemic in that country under control - which leaves the massive question why are we ignoring mass testing as THE method to control the outbreak?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjVy7C00h6k

[NewDonny]

ND.

Ok. I'll give you a better analogy.

Imagine if astronomers found a large meteorite heading towards earth.

They can map out it's trajectory. They reckon it's going to land in Northern England. They can't be absolutely certain where. They don't know how it will break up in the atmosphere. But they know that, if their calculations are right, it's coming down in North England and it is big enough to destroy a whole city.

Would you refuse to belief them because it's just based on mathematical predictions? Because you can't see the meteorite coming? Because this Isn't an exact prediction?

Or would you evacuate?

And then, a month later, when the meteorite was still a long way off, when the astronomers said it was still following pretty much exactly the path their models predicted. Would you still refuse to believe them?

That's not an attempt to be a smart arse. I'm just genuinely baffled that anyone can refuse to accept the trajectory we are on. And where it takes us. Fast.

Our deaths are doubling every 2-3 days. We have 180 now. Follow the trend. At that rate, by mid April we'd have 100k-1 million dead. What do you think is going to stop that from happening?

Regarding death rates, it's pointless looking at the published cases. That depends on how efficient the testing is. It's well established  that Italy (and us for that) have been very slow to get testing. So the confirmed number of cases is a tiny fraction of what the modellers think the actual number is. In our case, they reckon there are 20 times more actual cases than recorded ones.

Look BST, this is getting us nowhere, this example is just as bonkers and doesn't explain or solve anything.

The fact is that you would have us believe that we will be lucky to see the end off this virus by the 2021/22 season, which is a season and a half away, this is how this debate started. I am using football seasons because that is how you positioned things at the outset.

But I don't agree, I think we will see a distinct slowing down in the spread of the virus and mortality rate over the course of the next 2-3 months and by then we will have started to learn how to deal with everyday life being different. It will get worse before it peaks here in the UK, but I don't think it will ever go away, just like the common cold, flu or some of the more nastier viruses that are still out there. The difference is that we will learn to live with it and deal with it to the point that at some point we will develop a vaccine for it nd from there be able to control it.

[wilts rover]

  Whether right or wrong with statistics and projections, if people don't now take things seriously and conform with the measures being put in place things will get worse than they need to.
  I would like to think that on some future date not that far in the future everyone on this forum, and as many as possible of this country and any other will come through this mounting disaster, and once more get on with their every day life.

Fully agreed selby

[BillyStubbsTears]

Look BST, this is getting us nowhere, this example is just as bonkers and doesn't explain or solve anything.

ND.

Why is that analogy bonkers? It pretty much exactly matches the current situation.

Scientists predicting a future outcome that seems barely credible.

Data coming in that supports their predictions.

The prediction of many, many deaths occuring if we ignore what they say.

A clear but very, very unpleasant way of avoiding the worst effects.

You say that we will see a distinct slowdown in the spread of the disease. We WILL, but only by the most Draconian limits to how we interact. Did you hear the Chief Scientific Officer yesterday? He was telling us to get ready for serious social distancing for a year.

And THAT is why I'm saying that I do not see any prospect of football starting again as normal before the 2021/22 season. 2020/21 is a non-starter.

[NewDonny]

Look BST, this is getting us nowhere, this example is just as bonkers and doesn't explain or solve anything.

ND.

Why is that analogy bonkers? It pretty much exactly matches the current situation.

Scientists predicting a future outcome that seems barely credible.

Data coming in that supports their predictions.

The prediction of many, many deaths occuring if we ignore what they say.

A clear but very, very unpleasant way of avoiding the worst effects.

You say that we will see a distinct slowdown in the spread of the disease. We WILL, but only by the most Draconian limits to how we interact. Did you hear the Chief Scientific Officer yesterday? He was telling us to get ready for serious social distancing for a year.

And THAT is why I'm saying that I do not see any prospect of football starting again as normal before the 2021/22 season. 2020/21 is a non-starter.

In your opinion.

[silent majority]

It's not just his opinion though. We, (the FSA), have been briefed by the FA, EPL and EFL. Whilst not going public with any statements to the ones that currently exist, and I have no intention either, there is great concern as to the length this will take to resolve, and the knock on effect this will have for the survival of football as we know it.

[NewDonny]

It's not just his opinion though. We, (the FSA), have been briefed by the FA, EPL and EFL. Whilst not going public with any statements to the ones that currently exist, and I have no intention either, there is great concern as to the length this will take to resolve, and the knock on effect this will have for the survival of football as we know it.

Oh here he is, doesn't respond to any of my recent PM's of the last month but up he pops now!

I am only too aware of the seriousness of the situation and the growing concern, I live with it every day in worrying about paying the salaries of a lot of people. Everyone is concerned, because no one has any answers, so what you say is nothing new.

But then again, the debate and exchange between BST and myself is not about that. I am simply suggesting that his opinions and others who agree with him are NOT based on any hard facts or supporting evidence, only on statistics and formula which he agrees with. The only reliable FACT that exists is NO ONE ACTUALLY KNOWS, we are all just sitting watching this pandemic unfold day by day, hoping, praying that it passes sooner rather than later and that we do individually actually come through it - and that's is all my point is.

[silent majority]

It's not just his opinion though. We, (the FSA), have been briefed by the FA, EPL and EFL. Whilst not going public with any statements to the ones that currently exist, and I have no intention either, there is great concern as to the length this will take to resolve, and the knock on effect this will have for the survival of football as we know it.

Oh here he is, doesn't respond to any of my recent PM's of the last month but up he pops now!

I am only too aware of the seriousness of the situation and the growing concern, I live with it every day in worrying about paying the salaries of a lot of people. Everyone is concerned, because no one has any answers, so what you say is nothing new.

But then again, the debate and exchange between BST and myself is not about that. I am simply suggesting that his opinions and others who agree with him are NOT based on any hard facts or supporting evidence, only on statistics and formula which he agrees with. The only reliable FACT that exists is NO ONE ACTUALLY KNOWS, we are all just sitting watching this pandemic unfold day by day, hoping, praying that it passes sooner rather than later and that we do individually actually come through it - and that's is all my point is.

The reason I don't respond to your PM's is because you're an insulting individual with disdain for everybody's else's opinion.

Good luck with that.

[Not Now Kato]

It's not just his opinion though. We, (the FSA), have been briefed by the FA, EPL and EFL. Whilst not going public with any statements to the ones that currently exist, and I have no intention either, there is great concern as to the length this will take to resolve, and the knock on effect this will have for the survival of football as we know it.

Oh here he is, doesn't respond to any of my recent PM's of the last month but up he pops now!

I am only too aware of the seriousness of the situation and the growing concern, I live with it every day in worrying about paying the salaries of a lot of people. Everyone is concerned, because no one has any answers, so what you say is nothing new.

But then again, the debate and exchange between BST and myself is not about that. I am simply suggesting that his opinions and others who agree with him are NOT based on any hard facts or supporting evidence, only on statistics and formula which he agrees with. The only reliable FACT that exists is NO ONE ACTUALLY KNOWS, we are all just sitting watching this pandemic unfold day by day, hoping, praying that it passes sooner rather than later and that we do individually actually come through it - and that's is all my point is.

The reason I don't respond to your PM's is because you're an insulting individual with disdain for everybody's else's opinion.

Hmmm, I wonder if I'm tarred with that same brush SM; as I sent a PM to Admin, (looking to give some things away to fellow Rovers Supporters), but received no reply?
 
I even raised it in Forum Issues but, again, got no response!
 
Surely it is only polite to reply to PM's, even if only to say you disagree with the content?

[Jonathan]

It's not just his opinion though. We, (the FSA), have been briefed by the FA, EPL and EFL. Whilst not going public with any statements to the ones that currently exist, and I have no intention either, there is great concern as to the length this will take to resolve, and the knock on effect this will have for the survival of football as we know it.

Oh here he is, doesn't respond to any of my recent PM's of the last month but up he pops now!

I am only too aware of the seriousness of the situation and the growing concern, I live with it every day in worrying about paying the salaries of a lot of people. Everyone is concerned, because no one has any answers, so what you say is nothing new.

But then again, the debate and exchange between BST and myself is not about that. I am simply suggesting that his opinions and others who agree with him are NOT based on any hard facts or supporting evidence, only on statistics and formula which he agrees with. The only reliable FACT that exists is NO ONE ACTUALLY KNOWS, we are all just sitting watching this pandemic unfold day by day, hoping, praying that it passes sooner rather than later and that we do individually actually come through it - and that's is all my point is.

The reason I don't respond to your PM's is because you're an insulting individual with disdain for everybody's else's opinion.

Good luck with that.

Whoa hold on there. That’s uncalled for, insulting in itself and wholly wide of the mark. In my opinion.

Do we really need that at this time? These are really hard times. Many of us are under pressure, our families at risk and facing an uncertain future. We all need some hope right now. There are best case scenarios, worst case scenarios and many contingency plans that are required to react. But none of us know how this is going to play out quite yet.

[Dutch Uncle]

It's not just his opinion though. We, (the FSA), have been briefed by the FA, EPL and EFL. Whilst not going public with any statements to the ones that currently exist, and I have no intention either, there is great concern as to the length this will take to resolve, and the knock on effect this will have for the survival of football as we know it.

Oh here he is, doesn't respond to any of my recent PM's of the last month but up he pops now!

I am only too aware of the seriousness of the situation and the growing concern, I live with it every day in worrying about paying the salaries of a lot of people. Everyone is concerned, because no one has any answers, so what you say is nothing new.

But then again, the debate and exchange between BST and myself is not about that. I am simply suggesting that his opinions and others who agree with him are NOT based on any hard facts or supporting evidence, only on statistics and formula which he agrees with. The only reliable FACT that exists is NO ONE ACTUALLY KNOWS, we are all just sitting watching this pandemic unfold day by day, hoping, praying that it passes sooner rather than later and that we do individually actually come through it - and that's is all my point is.

Of course we can all sit around and watch, but many people think it helpful to try and understand the workings behind what is going on. For example scientists like Newton may have watched, but then took it further and tried to understand, rationalise, measure etc.

The field of Operations Research is these days applicable to many many domains and disciplines and not just e.g. warfare as in WW2. The idea of observing a process or system, trying to understand it, define measures of success or failure, develop models and simulations, attempt to validate and verify them, try to put some quantification in results to help decision makers understand the range of effects of different courses of action - that is all well accepted. It is critical to note that these models are normally not predictive but comparative, often ranking courses of actions against agreed criteria. For example analysts using models may tell a military commander that option A has least risk/lowest casualties, option B is quickest and option C is a compromise in between.  In other words we don't pretend to predict exactly what will happen but can suggest action A is likely better than B or C or vice versa etc.

If some structure and understanding of measuremnt can be developed, then as a scenario unfolds the situation can be tracked and it can be judged if it is following the behaviour suggested by the models. Actions can be changed accordingly. With epidemiology I would expect extensive modelling to have been done over decades, and validated by previous outbreaks like Ebola, SARS, MERS etc. I see Porton Down is involved in the response, I would expect they will have all the knowledge and experience.

Newton's equations were simply a model of gravity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operations_research
   
P.S. I have spent my entire professional lifetime in Operations Research.

Edit: I sincerely hope Boris is taking advice from these people, we know Trump is not doing so in the USA.

[silent majority]

It's not just his opinion though. We, (the FSA), have been briefed by the FA, EPL and EFL. Whilst not going public with any statements to the ones that currently exist, and I have no intention either, there is great concern as to the length this will take to resolve, and the knock on effect this will have for the survival of football as we know it.

Oh here he is, doesn't respond to any of my recent PM's of the last month but up he pops now!

I am only too aware of the seriousness of the situation and the growing concern, I live with it every day in worrying about paying the salaries of a lot of people. Everyone is concerned, because no one has any answers, so what you say is nothing new.

But then again, the debate and exchange between BST and myself is not about that. I am simply suggesting that his opinions and others who agree with him are NOT based on any hard facts or supporting evidence, only on statistics and formula which he agrees with. The only reliable FACT that exists is NO ONE ACTUALLY KNOWS, we are all just sitting watching this pandemic unfold day by day, hoping, praying that it passes sooner rather than later and that we do individually actually come through it - and that's is all my point is.

The reason I don't respond to your PM's is because you're an insulting individual with disdain for everybody's else's opinion.

Hmmm, I wonder if I'm tarred with that same brush SM; as I sent a PM to Admin, (looking to give some things away to fellow Rovers Supporters), but received no reply?
 
I even raised it in Forum Issues but, again, got no response!
 
Surely it is only polite to reply to PM's, even if only to say you disagree with the content?

That's not the same thing at all. I've been receiving pm's which I chose to ignore, further insulting pm's were sent to the moderators, which again were ignored.

Your pm to an account which is not monitored regularly, and has to be signed into separately, doesn't necessarily mean you're being ignored on purpose. I've been out of the country for a while and then recovering from some health issues which meant I personally left some issues to other admin personnel.

[silent majority]

This topic is no longer about football so I'm moving it to off topic.

[River Don]

It's not all guess work and computer modelling.

We have a real live model in China, that gives us some indication of how all this is going to develop.

China has Been battling this thing for at least three or four months longer than we have. The nation is still in locked down since December. There is a strong expectation that when restrictions are lifted the virus will reemerge.

So I think we can be confident, come June we are still going to have massive disruption with the prospect of many more months of disruption still ahead.

The one thing at the moment that gives me hope, that this disruption might be lessened for the UK is the prospect of an antibody test. Then at least those who have recovered or might never have known they have had the virus, can start getting back to something like normality.

[silent majority]

The problem will be finding an exit strategy that works, and at the moment we don't have one.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dutch.

Excellent post as ever.

I'd just add: Newton's concept of gravity turned out to be wrong. But only a fool would ignore his predictions when walking along the edge of a cliff...