Congratualtions Keir Starmer

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr
In 2019, a majority of voters across the entire country voted for parties that were against the Brexit that was being lined up.

You are focussing on a minority and saying Labour should have pandered to them. A bit of inconsistent logic going on there.

And how many of them to use your phrase held their nose. Don’t make the assumption they voted for the party policies 100%

Then take opinion polls on that precise topic. There was a large and consistent majority against Brexit throughout 2019.

[Ldr]

Ldr
In 2019, a majority of voters across the entire country voted for parties that were against the Brexit that was being lined up.

You are focussing on a minority and saying Labour should have pandered to them. A bit of inconsistent logic going on there.

And how many of them to use your phrase held their nose. Don’t make the assumption they voted for the party policies 100%

Then take opinion polls on that precise topic. There was a large and consistent majority against Brexit throughout 2019.

Say for a second we agree, and the humiliating defeat wasn’t to do with Brexit. It would indicate Labour has an even more worrying issue around culture and engagement.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr.
Labour has a massive problem on that score, as I've said repeatedly.

The people who broadly support left wing economic policies should be Labour's constituency. But they split into two diametrically opposed cultural groups.

25-30% are nationalist, socially conservatives. Mostly older. Mostly living in small, post Industrial towns.

70-75% are socially liberal internationalists. Mostly younger. Many living in cities.

Labour can only win if it appeals to both. But both sides appear determined to fight with each other. And of course, the Tories will pour petrol on those flames by stoking up Culture War issues.

By the way, I don't know if I misunderstood your post, but I'm certainly not arguing that Labour's disaster in 2019 wasn't greatly due to Brexit. Of course it was. But not for the reasons that you and Tyke seem to think.

[tyke1962]

Ldr.
Labour has a massive problem on that score, as I've said repeatedly.

The people who broadly support left wing economic policies should be Labour's constituency. But they split into two diametrically opposed cultural groups.

25-30% are nationalist, socially conservatives. Mostly older. Mostly living in small, post Industrial towns.

70-75% are socially liberal internationalists. Mostly younger. Many living in cities.

Labour can only win if it appeals to both. But both sides appear determined to fight with each other. And of course, the Tories will pour petrol on those flames by stoking up Culture War issues.

By the way, I don't know if I misunderstood your post, but I'm certainly not arguing that Labour's disaster in 2019 wasn't greatly due to Brexit. Of course it was. But not for the reasons that you and Tyke seem to think.

Well what I saw when the decision was made to go down the road of a second referendum was the Labour party exposed on trust with the shadow brexit secretary's finger prints all over it .

They weren't trusted to honour the result of the 2016 referendum by the electorate , introducing a second referendum 3 years later tends to suggest this .

If a party can't be trusted by the electorate it tends not to play out too well at the ballot box .

It's massively understated just how important it was to those who voted Leave in 2016 to have this delivered and their vote respected .

The reason it was so important is because it was the first time for many many people that their vote was worth something and nothing like GE's .

That's why the turnout was high because people knew their vote carried weight and real change in the making .

To insult the Leave vote by putting another referendum on the table was election suicide .

The result of the 2019 GE tends to suggest that to be the case .

It takes something extremely significant to flip historically strong labour seats to the tories .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

You are focussing completely on a fraction of a fraction of the electorate.

25% of 40%. The number of Labour Leave supporters in early 2019.

Go and look at that graph. See what happened in early 2019 when Corbyn tried doing exactly what you say.

Go on. Go and look.

Then come back and tell me how Labour were supposed to win an Election, or in fact, even survive, with that policy.

Your self indulgence on this topic is just staggering.

[Ldr]

Again BST you focus on Labour supporters, the focus needs to be elsewhere not on those who vote for you anyway

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

You are focussing completely on a fraction of a fraction of the electorate.

25% of 40%. The number of Labour Leave supporters in early 2019.

Go and look at that graph. See what happened in early 2019 when Corbyn tried doing exactly what you say.

Go on. Go and look.

Then come back and tell me how Labour were supposed to win an Election, or in fact, even survive, with that policy.

Your self indulgence on this topic is just staggering.

Billy

My minority mindset that you speak off actually equates to Labour losing 60 seats in the 2019 GE of which 52 seats were constituencies which voted to leave the EU by over 50% .

I'm not disrespecting your graphs by the way I'm merely highlighting how it played out in reality .

https://labourlist.org/2019/12/the-60-seats-labour-lost-in-the-2019-general-election/

[tyke1962]

Again BST you focus on Labour supporters, the focus needs to be elsewhere not on those who vote for you anyway

Picked up by this publication about a month before the 2019 GE .


https://www.cityam.com/general-election-2019-most-brits-are-confused-by-labours-brexit-stance/

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

When Labour adopted the policy that you suggest, they dropped to 18% in the polls.

How many seats do you think they would have lost then?

[scawsby steve]

BST; why do you think that Labour got utterly humiliated in the North and North-East, the most left wing and Tory hating areas in the country?

I'll give you my reason. It was because of the outrageous decision to push for a second referendum; and I'll back that up by saying that if Starmer is still the Labour leader in 2024, they'll get mullered again in those areas, because people have long memories.

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

When Labour adopted the policy that you suggest, they dropped to 18% in the polls.

How many seats do you think they would have lost then?

I don't know how many they'd have lost , but I do know how many they did lose ,  why they lost them and which party picked them up .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

You have the evidence in front of you as to what would have happened.

Ignoring that and insisting you are right is willfully blind and deaf indulgence. "I'm right and if I ignore any evidence to the contrary, I don't have to challenge my opinion."

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS
I'm permanently bemused by the anger of people about the suggestion that we should have had a vote to find out what the population wanted. In the context that we ended up with a Brexit that we were told by the Leave campaign in 2016 would never happen. And that vote is sacrosanct.

Never yet heard a sensible defence of that position.

[scawsby steve]

SS
I'm permanently bemused by the anger of people about the suggestion that we should have had a vote to find out what the population wanted. In the context that we ended up with a Brexit that we were told by the Leave campaign in 2016 would never happen. And that vote is sacrosanct.

Never yet heard a sensible defence of that position.

With the greatest respect, BST, that's not the question I asked; which was if the second referendum wasn't the cause of the drubbing, then what was?

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS
I've given my two pennorth in detail.

Yes Labour were hammered because of the Ref stance.  They would have been totally destroyed without that stance.

The problem is far more complicated than a simple right/wrong.

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

You have the evidence in front of you as to what would have happened.

Ignoring that and insisting you are right is willfully blind and deaf indulgence. "I'm right and if I ignore any evidence to the contrary, I don't have to challenge my opinion."

I'm not ignoring anything , my point is your findings don't tell me how many seats Labour would have lost or  who would have picked them up .

Who picked them up is perhaps a key point .

With both Labour and the Tories respecting the referendum result and the Lib Dems standing on a ticket to overturn it that changes the 2019 GE election campaign massively .

With that on offer that's absolutely not a shoe in for the Tories by any means and there's absolutely no way standing on a overturning the referendum result ticket are the Lib Dems forming a government either .

So in my opinion your graphs convert to not very much amongst a percentage of the Labour voters who took part in the polls .

[SydneyRover]

Just found it .................... 'vote tory for payback'

Lynton Crosby

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.
It's not hard to predict what the outcome would have been in an Election with Labour on 23%, the LDs on 20% and the Greens on 10%, and the Tories tacking towards a hard Brexit and sweeping up the Brexit Party vote, which is roughly where we were in Summer 2019. Labour would have struggled to get 80 seats. The Lads maybe 50. The Greens 1 and the Tories 430+

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS
I've given my two pennorth in detail.

Yes Labour were hammered because of the Ref stance.  They would have been totally destroyed without that stance.

The problem is far more complicated than a simple right/wrong.

SS.
On top of that, as I've said for years, there was a massive principle at issue and it is something that Leave supporters never, ever address.

The Brexit we ended up facing by late 2019 was nothing like the Brexit promised by the Leave side in 2016.

Farage repeatedly urged a Norway type outcome in 2016.

Hannan repeatedly said there was no way we were leaving the Single Market.

Anyone who pointed out the Irish problem was accused of playing with peace. Johnson said it could all be sorted with some magic technology.

All that was thrown under the bus by mid 2019. People advocating a Norway deal (which I would have supported after 2016 as the least bad outcome) were told that wasn't The Will of The People.

But here's the thing.

How did anyone know what The Will of The People was? Because they had never been asked if they supported the Hard Brexit we ended up with. They had repeatedly been told in 2016 that we wouldn't have a Hard Brexit. The EU would fall over themselves to give us exactly what we wanted.

In that context, I'm genuinely amazed at the insistence of Leave supporters that a second vote to see if the British people REALLY wanted the Brexit we ended up with should be seen as an outrage against Democracy.

What the REAL outrage was, was the Leave side being systematically lied to in 2016.

[Metalmicky]

Keir is ready to 'sweat blood'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57848266

[mugnapper]

Keir is ready to 'sweat blood'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57848266

If he wants to become more popular, he'd be better off being on 'The Masked Singer' or better still, presenting ITV's ever popular quiz, 'The Chase'.

(Thinking about it though, sweating blood would probably get him into the Final of 'Britain's Got Talent'. To win it, he'd have to find a dog that could dance. And also sweat blood).