No Brexit Extension

[IDM]

Tyke your reference to beheading is in poor taste considering what happened in Paris yesterday..

[Donnywolf]

BST - dont forget the missing millions of Voters who couldnt indeed DONT give a flying f***

They boycott every GE and they didnt vote in the Referendum either. I think that though the result was 52 48 ish to Leave the actual percentage of the whole Electorate that wanted to leave was just 37 per cent

Dont suppose we can compel people to vote but they could and would have a large effect on the outcomes of every Election and those Suffragettes must be turning in their graves

(Note - its early and I have guessed at the figures I gave quoted above as a) I think they are near enough and b) I cant be ar*** to look them up)

[SydneyRover]

It's a bit of a shocker Wolf, there was a post the other week about having those with mask exemptions wear a badge or something but those that don't vote should have a dunces cap.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50393317

https://www.votenone.org.uk/uk-unheard-third.html

[tyke1962]

Tyke your reference to beheading is in poor taste considering what happened in Paris yesterday..

Genuinely didn't know IDM until your post , apologies if anyone was offended .

Removed the post .

[IDM]

No worries mate..

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

For the record, MANY of us were predicting in 2016 that the real purpose of Brexit was for Johnson to lead a cult taking over the Tory party.

I know it must hurt to know that you have been part of that process. But people need to learn when to grit their teeth and vote with their heads.

I voted for Blair with gritted teeth myself, because, while I hated many of his stances, it was better to have him than the shambles that the Tory party was in the late 90s.

In 2005, I voted against Labour because I wanted to send a message that Blair had to go after Iraq. But I knew that I was doing it in a safe Labour seat. Would I have done it in a marginal if there had been a chance of Labour losing and Michael Howard becoming PM? Never in a million years.

Similarly, I've campaigned and voted for Corbyn's Labour party despite not supporting many of his stances. Because the alternative was the barely credible shit show we now have.

You have two choices when you vote. You can naively vote for what you think are high principles that you believe in. Or you can grit your teeth and think, "What real-world outcome is the least bad one and how does my vote make that happen."

Unfortunately, you and a couple of million others on the Left did the former in 2016 and didn't think of the latter. And now we are all paying the penalty.

Billy let me ask you a question .

Did you ever envisage the Red Wall collapsing as a consequence of brexit in 2016 ?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

Yes of course I did.

Did you ever think about the counterfactual? What would have happened to Labour had they embraced Brexit?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Tyke.

For the record, MANY of us were predicting in 2016 that the real purpose of Brexit was for Johnson to lead a cult taking over the Tory party.

I know it must hurt to know that you have been part of that process. But people need to learn when to grit their teeth and vote with their heads.

I voted for Blair with gritted teeth myself, because, while I hated many of his stances, it was better to have him than the shambles that the Tory party was in the late 90s.

In 2005, I voted against Labour because I wanted to send a message that Blair had to go after Iraq. But I knew that I was doing it in a safe Labour seat. Would I have done it in a marginal if there had been a chance of Labour losing and Michael Howard becoming PM? Never in a million years.

Similarly, I've campaigned and voted for Corbyn's Labour party despite not supporting many of his stances. Because the alternative was the barely credible shit show we now have.

You have two choices when you vote. You can naively vote for what you think are high principles that you believe in. Or you can grit your teeth and think, "What real-world outcome is the least bad one and how does my vote make that happen."

Unfortunately, you and a couple of million others on the Left did the former in 2016 and didn't think of the latter. And now we are all paying the penalty.

Billy let me ask you a question .

Did you ever envisage the Red Wall collapsing as a consequence of brexit in 2016 ?

Could anybody have envisaged the three years of May's shambolic Brexit premiership that led to it?

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

Yes of course I did.

Did you ever think about the counterfactual? What would have happened to Labour had they embraced Brexit?

You envisaged ex miners would vote Tory , fair enough Billy .

You should give Starmer a call , the party need a good political analyst .

Personally I never thought that would happen in 2016 , extremely pyssed off for sure but vote Tory ?

Far too much history and bad blood for that to happen but clearly I was wrong .

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

For the record, MANY of us were predicting in 2016 that the real purpose of Brexit was for Johnson to lead a cult taking over the Tory party.

I know it must hurt to know that you have been part of that process. But people need to learn when to grit their teeth and vote with their heads.

I voted for Blair with gritted teeth myself, because, while I hated many of his stances, it was better to have him than the shambles that the Tory party was in the late 90s.

In 2005, I voted against Labour because I wanted to send a message that Blair had to go after Iraq. But I knew that I was doing it in a safe Labour seat. Would I have done it in a marginal if there had been a chance of Labour losing and Michael Howard becoming PM? Never in a million years.

Similarly, I've campaigned and voted for Corbyn's Labour party despite not supporting many of his stances. Because the alternative was the barely credible shit show we now have.

You have two choices when you vote. You can naively vote for what you think are high principles that you believe in. Or you can grit your teeth and think, "What real-world outcome is the least bad one and how does my vote make that happen."

Unfortunately, you and a couple of million others on the Left did the former in 2016 and didn't think of the latter. And now we are all paying the penalty.

Billy let me ask you a question .

Did you ever envisage the Red Wall collapsing as a consequence of brexit in 2016 ?

Could anybody have envisaged the three years of May's shambolic Brexit premiership that led to it?

Not on that scale no , to be fair she wasn't exactly helped by the democracy deniers and political opportunists either .

[EasyforDennis]

BST - dont forget the missing millions of Voters who couldnt indeed DONT give a flying f***

They boycott every GE and they didnt vote in the Referendum either. I think that though the result was 52 48 ish to Leave the actual percentage of the whole Electorate that wanted to leave was just 37 per cent

Dont suppose we can compel people to vote but they could and would have a large effect on the outcomes of every Election and those Suffragettes must be turning in their graves

(Note - its early and I have guessed at the figures I gave quoted above as a) I think they are near enough and b) I cant be ar*** to look them up)

Actually we CAN compell people to vote. We do the same as Australia where you are fined if you don't vote.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

Yes of course I did.

Did you ever think about the counterfactual? What would have happened to Labour had they embraced Brexit?

You envisaged ex miners would vote Tory , fair enough Billy .

You should give Starmer a call , the party need a good political analyst .

Personally I never thought that would happen in 2016 , extremely pyssed off for sure but vote Tory ?

Far too much history and bad blood for that to happen but clearly I was wrong .

So. The counterfactual?

[Donnywolf]

Tyke.

For the record, MANY of us were predicting in 2016 that the real purpose of Brexit was for Johnson to lead a cult taking over the Tory party.

I know it must hurt to know that you have been part of that process. But people need to learn when to grit their teeth and vote with their heads.

I voted for Blair with gritted teeth myself, because, while I hated many of his stances, it was better to have him than the shambles that the Tory party was in the late 90s.

In 2005, I voted against Labour because I wanted to send a message that Blair had to go after Iraq. But I knew that I was doing it in a safe Labour seat. Would I have done it in a marginal if there had been a chance of Labour losing and Michael Howard becoming PM? Never in a million years.

Similarly, I've campaigned and voted for Corbyn's Labour party despite not supporting many of his stances. Because the alternative was the barely credible shit show we now have.

You have two choices when you vote. You can naively vote for what you think are high principles that you believe in. Or you can grit your teeth and think, "What real-world outcome is the least bad one and how does my vote make that happen."

Unfortunately, you and a couple of million others on the Left did the former in 2016 and didn't think of the latter. And now we are all paying the penalty.

Billy let me ask you a question .

Did you ever envisage the Red Wall collapsing as a consequence of brexit in 2016 ?

Could anybody have envisaged the three years of May's shambolic Brexit premiership that led to it?

Not on that scale no , to be fair she wasn't exactly helped by the democracy deniers and political opportunists either .

I often thought that May who I think was a Remainer was simply playing the long game waiting to reach a point of no return / backed into a corner and being "forced" to offer a second Referendum

Eventually she was forced out before that happened and I still dislike that Jo Swinson for caving in to Johnson when he was trying to force his need for an Election through. All the opposition had to say is - yes we will let you have an Election as long as once you have finished negotiating the EU exit you put the deal back to the people.

Johnson would have been the one who would be looking the unreasonable one after trumpeting an Election and then backing down BUT in the end Swinson was the one that caved in and gave him the perfect "out"  then left the scene of her "crime" and I HOPE she thinks of the crap that has followed and how so much of it is due to her. All she had to do is hold her nerve

[scawsby steve]

BST - dont forget the missing millions of Voters who couldnt indeed DONT give a flying f***

They boycott every GE and they didnt vote in the Referendum either. I think that though the result was 52 48 ish to Leave the actual percentage of the whole Electorate that wanted to leave was just 37 per cent

Dont suppose we can compel people to vote but they could and would have a large effect on the outcomes of every Election and those Suffragettes must be turning in their graves

(Note - its early and I have guessed at the figures I gave quoted above as a) I think they are near enough and b) I cant be ar*** to look them up)

Actually we CAN compell people to vote. We do the same as Australia where you are fined if you don't vote.

And who the f*ck will pay the fine?

This country can't even keep people safe on the streets.

[Colemans Left Hook]

 i was thinking abou what Merkel said in 2016 about ther being no need to be " nasty" to the uk

and thought maybe this alleged "hard line" action was aimed as a deterrant  to other countries leaving the EU.

at least nine months ago i saw Italy was 14/1 favourite to be the next to leave the next shortest was some much bigger price at least 25/1 from memory

so just checked the current odds lowest prices

Italy are the 3/1 favourites
Greece 6/1
France 8/1  ....... amazingly low
Spain 14/1 or 50/1
Germany 33/1 or 80/1 take your choice


https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/next-country-to-leave-eu

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Italy would be the most likely of the "Big Four" member states to consider exiting the European Union if Brexit proves to be beneficial to Britain, according to a Euronews-commissioned poll.

Data from the Redfield and Wilton Strategies survey found that nearly half of Italians would be likely to support their country leaving the EU if the UK and its economy are regarded to be in good health in five years.

In the event, France and Spain both showed moderate support for changing its relationship with the bloc, while Germany was the member state least likely of the four major players to consider leaving the Union.

The poll findings come just weeks after the founding of a new anti-EU party in Italy."

https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/10/nearly-half-of-italians-would-support-leaving-the-eu-if-brexit-is-successful-according-to

[drfchound]

BST - dont forget the missing millions of Voters who couldnt indeed DONT give a flying f***

They boycott every GE and they didnt vote in the Referendum either. I think that though the result was 52 48 ish to Leave the actual percentage of the whole Electorate that wanted to leave was just 37 per cent

Dont suppose we can compel people to vote but they could and would have a large effect on the outcomes of every Election and those Suffragettes must be turning in their graves

(Note - its early and I have guessed at the figures I gave quoted above as a) I think they are near enough and b) I cant be ar*** to look them up)

Actually we CAN compell people to vote. We do the same as Australia where you are fined if you don't vote.

And who the f*ck will pay the fine?

This country can't even keep people safe on the streets.

Not many places can Steve.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Tyke.

For the record, MANY of us were predicting in 2016 that the real purpose of Brexit was for Johnson to lead a cult taking over the Tory party.

I know it must hurt to know that you have been part of that process. But people need to learn when to grit their teeth and vote with their heads.

I voted for Blair with gritted teeth myself, because, while I hated many of his stances, it was better to have him than the shambles that the Tory party was in the late 90s.

In 2005, I voted against Labour because I wanted to send a message that Blair had to go after Iraq. But I knew that I was doing it in a safe Labour seat. Would I have done it in a marginal if there had been a chance of Labour losing and Michael Howard becoming PM? Never in a million years.

Similarly, I've campaigned and voted for Corbyn's Labour party despite not supporting many of his stances. Because the alternative was the barely credible shit show we now have.

You have two choices when you vote. You can naively vote for what you think are high principles that you believe in. Or you can grit your teeth and think, "What real-world outcome is the least bad one and how does my vote make that happen."

Unfortunately, you and a couple of million others on the Left did the former in 2016 and didn't think of the latter. And now we are all paying the penalty.

Billy let me ask you a question .

Did you ever envisage the Red Wall collapsing as a consequence of brexit in 2016 ?

Could anybody have envisaged the three years of May's shambolic Brexit premiership that led to it?

Not on that scale no , to be fair she wasn't exactly helped by the democracy deniers and political opportunists either .

The people who hampered her most were the rabid leavers in her own party who had the power to hamstring her and the Brexit they claimed they wanted - unlike those you're talking about.

[ravenrover]

With or without a deal the fishing rights problem will possibly prove to be deadly. Both sides have crazy fishermen but it seems that the johny foreigners have the bigger  boats and that could lead to a fishing war. We have seen images of crazy French boats ramming British boats in the past, and lets not forget we are talking about fishermens livlihoods at stake here

[SydneyRover]

This is the 2018 catch stats

''74% of the quantity landed by the UK fleet was caught by vessels over 24 metres in length which accounted for 4% of the total number of UK vessels. These vessels tend to catch lower value pelagic fish''

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/fishing-industry-in-2018-statistics-published#:~:text=Around%2012%2C000%20fishermen%20were%20active,value%20of%20%C2%A3169%20million.

[SydneyRover]

''Brexit trade deal: Who really owns UK fishing quotas?''


This is who owns the licenses etc it's worth a read.

BBC May 2020

''Foreign companies own the rights to catch more than 130,000 tonnes of fish every year that are part of England's fishing quota, BBC research has revealed.

More than £160m worth of the English quota is in the hands of vessels owned by companies based in Iceland, Spain and the Netherlands, thanks to a practice known as "quota-hopping".

That amounts to 55% of the quota's annual value in 2019.

Taking back control of UK fishing waters was a key issue for many Brexit supporters.

But with fishing still an obstacle in the UK's trade talks with the European Union, the figures raise questions about what taking back control will actually mean''

And

''Our research suggests that taking back much greater control could mean buying back fishing quota.

That would come at quite a cost, which the government doesn't currently seem prepared to pay''

https://www.bbc.com/news/52420116

[Not Now Kato]

With or without a deal the fishing rights problem will possibly prove to be deadly. Both sides have crazy fishermen but it seems that the johny foreigners have the bigger  boats and that could lead to a fishing war. We have seen images of crazy French boats ramming British boats in the past, and lets not forget we are talking about fishermens livlihoods at stake here

Funny isn't it.  The country is up in arms about fishermen's livelihood's, yet the same people couldn't give a shit when thousands of miners lost their jobs when the mines were closed down.  And then there was the Steel Workers, and...........
 
The right wing media have a lot to answer for!

[selby]

  Kato, we are looking at the remnants of our fishing industry that has been decimated since we entered the EU to the benefit of other members fishing communities in other member states fishing in our waters.
  I have seen repeatedly the percentage of GDP as it is now quoted in a way to reduce the effect on our economy and minimize the so called effect to our country compared with other industries.
 I have never seen the GDP figures as they were as we entered the EU to compare with present day but would guess that it was a bigger share of GDP at that time having visited as a school trip to Hull and Grimsby the massive fish docks that no longer exist.
  This could be the chance to grow that industry back to how it was, perhaps Europe could be their market.

[DonnyOsmond]

  Kato, we are looking at the remnants of our fishing industry that has been decimated since we entered the EU to the benefit of other members fishing communities in other member states fishing in our waters.
  I have seen repeatedly the percentage of GDP as it is now quoted in a way to reduce the effect on our economy and minimize the so called effect to our country compared with other industries.
 I have never seen the GDP figures as they were as we entered the EU to compare with present day but would guess that it was a bigger share of GDP at that time having visited as a school trip to Hull and Grimsby the massive fish docks that no longer exist.
  This could be the chance to grow that industry back to how it was, perhaps Europe could be their market.

Is it worth it if it's to the detriment of other more profitable sectors?

[ravenrover]

With or without a deal the fishing rights problem will possibly prove to be deadly. Both sides have crazy fishermen but it seems that the johny foreigners have the bigger  boats and that could lead to a fishing war. We have seen images of crazy French boats ramming British boats in the past, and lets not forget we are talking about fishermens livlihoods at stake here

Funny isn't it.  The country is up in arms about fishermen's livelihood's, yet the same people couldn't give a shit when thousands of miners lost their jobs when the mines were closed down.  And then there was the Steel Workers, and...........
 
The right wing media have a lot to answer for!

Do you know I don't recollect readng anything about coal or steel strikes in France. It was the crazy French fishermen I was referring to but hey never mind you just carry on political point scoring

[albie]

Fish landed from UK waters will need to be consumed in the UK after a "no deal" exit.

Any fish sold abroad will have to pay import tariffs.
This means export of UK fish will be more expensive than locally sourced.

As DO says, the industry is a tiddler in terms of the UK economy.
What happens to fishing is very much secondary to other sectors with greater economic weight.

The UK car industry is very vulnerable, including all the supply and support chains involved.
Why make cars here and pay tariffs to export, when you can produce abroad and avoid that cost?

[selby]

  So your not bothered about the fishing communities then Albie as long as the car makers mostly foreign owned, some French that blatantly ignored government subsidies to save them at others expense, and the same country that is threatening to ignore our sovereignty your quite happy with that.
  If they piss off I will bet they are replaced within five years probably with Chinese car makers.

[albie]

Selby,

Please read my post properly.

I said that tariffs will end exports of fish, so if the UK fishing sector is not wholly focussed on the domestic market it will lose market share.

The point about the car industry is likely job losses, not who the owners are.
Do you want to see big redundancies in the industry?

You may be right about Chinese car production taking a bigger share.
If you do not want to see that then I suggest a no deal is the worst possible option.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Let's have a think why Chinese car manufacturers might, in some hypothetical future world, see Britain as a suitable place to set up business.

Britain would need to have some major benefits over other countries.

The major costs for car manufacturers are:

1) Labour costs
2) Raw materials
3) Shipping costs
4) Tariffs.

Well, we COULD offer the Chinese a low cost labour market. But I'm not sure that even the most rabid Brexiteer would admit to having an ambition that we pay our workers less than the Chinese pay theirs/ So that one's out.

We  have to export pretty much all raw materials into the UK these days, so there's no real benefit to setting up here on that score.

Shipping. Well, now, see...we are a long way from everywhere in the world. Of aye. Except for a market of half a billion of some of the richest consumers that the world has ever seen, right on our doorstep.

But... Damn! We are just about to rip up the frictionless and tariff-free trade arrangement we've had with them for the past 30 years. So if you want to make cars in the UK and sell them in Europe, all other things being equal, the sale price will be higher than it will be if you make them in Slovakia and sell them in Europe. Plus there's the ball ache of all the paperwork that will now go with it.

What's that you say? America? We'll be able to strike a deal with America that means we can make China's cars in the UK and ship them to America without paying tariffs. Well, we MIGHT be able to. If America agrees. But then of course, you have to pay to ship them 3,500 miles over the ocean. So why not just make them in America? Or maybe Mexico, where they have much cheaper labour costs and already have trade arrangement with the USA?

So remind me. Why exactly would the Chinese build their cars here?

[albie]

BST,

I think Selby meant UK manufacture would be replaced by Chinese imports.

No-one is going to make things for export in the UK under tariff barriers. ....unless the UK used State Aid to bribe Chinese manufacturers to locate here for example.

Selby does not seem to be worried about UK jobs too much.

[selby]

  We have given state aid to Japanese French and German manufacturers here for years. I would not let them remove one nut or bolt if they leave this country and would put a purchase tax on their cars and spare parts unless made in this country that would price them out of this market.