Right Everybody, Do What You Want

[BigH]

Me, I'm off to get lashed on Skegness beach tomorrow. Weather's going to be ace.

Sod the rules, whatever they are/were; pandemic, schmandemic.

Boris Johnson reckons it'll be alright; that's good enough for me!

[Nudga]

And people wonder why I question everything when various MPs and advisors break their own f**kin draconian laws.

f**k the lockdown.
f**k the new normal.
f**k your face masks and queues.
f**k your brainwashing adverts and piped supermarket propaganda.

[tommy toes]

Yes unfortunately that'll be the attitude of a lot of people now.

I knew a Johnson government would f**k up, but didn't think it would be so quickly and so calamitously in what are tragic circumstances for the country.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And people wonder why I question everything when various MPs and advisors break their own f**kin draconian laws.

f**k the lockdown.
f**k the new normal.
f**k your face masks and queues.
f**k your brainwashing adverts and piped supermarket propaganda.

Absolutely NOT the response.

The epidemic has been suppressed because most of us have done the right thing.

The fact that this self-important Kitson has NOT done the right thing means that HE is wrong, not the rest of us.

Here is a VERY important graph.

Some basic maths first.

If an epidemic increase exponentially, as we have been told CV-19 will in the absence of a lockdown, that means the number of new cases (and hence, deaths) doubles every X days.

If the number of new deaths doubles every X days, that means that on any day, you expect the number of new deaths every day to be a fixed percentage of the total deaths at that date. (I can explain that if anyone is interested, but it needs A-level maths to understand it.)

So, if you plot out the number of NEW deaths per day against the TOTAL deaths on that day, and it is a straight line, you have an epidemic that is increasing exponentially. And that is very, VERY bad.

Look at the graph below.

EVERY country has started off with the number of new deaths per day doubling about every 3.5 days. That is the solid black line. And EVERY country stayed on that trend until they locked down.

When they locked down, it takes time for the death rate to start falling off. Because there are already people who have the disease and are going to die.

Look at that graph. In pretty much EVERY case, the total number of deaths has increased 10-fold after lockdown before it has started to fall off the trend line. And the final number of deaths looks like being about 100x what it was on the day of the lockdown for EVERY country.

Lockdown works! Countries that locked down sooner has saved more lives. Countries that locked down later have lost more lives.

The lesson from this weekend's news is NOT that lockdown doesn't work. It is that Cummings is a f**king bell end who wants hanging for this.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That graph by the way, shows without any argument that if you delay lockdown, you get more deaths.

How bad? Well we are going to have about 60,000 total deaths. That graph shows, beyond argument that if we had locked down a week earlier, we'd have had about a quarter as many. And if we had locked down a week later, we'd have had something like a quarter of a million deaths.

[SydneyRover]

And with 2,400 NEW cases recorded yesterday if the R number rises then it can and will take off again very quickly, I would think the responces are just a reaction to the frustration to this latest cockup by the johnson government and most will protect themselves and their families.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And with 2,400 NEW cases recorded yesterday if the R number rises then it can and will take off again very quickly, I would think the responces are just a reaction to the frustration to this latest cockup by the johnson government and most will protect themselves and their families.

Exactly!

And Nudga's response (which I fully understand) Is precisely the reason why Cummings wants taking to a big dog. His f**king stupidity is going to result in many, many people saying "f**k the lockdown". And the result of that could be catastrophic.

[tommy toes]

We know that we should continue to abide by lockdown rules and most of us will.
But looking around social media tonight there are lots of people saying 'f**k it'
If they mean it time will tell.

[BillyStubbsTears]

We know that we should continue to abide by lockdown rules and most of us will.
But looking around social media tonight there are lots of people saying 'f**k it'
If they mean it time will tell.

if just 20% of the population go into "f**k it" mode, we are in massive trouble. If a big second wave starts NOW, it will really bite in December-January, when the NHS is already stretched in normal times because of normal seasonal flu.


I've been saying for year that that Kitson Cummings is the most dangerous man in the country, but even I didn't foresee this.

[tommy toes]

So...  Boris Johnson should TOMORROW sack Cummings.
Then go on TV and apologise for the crap he came out with yesterday and reaffirm the lockdown rules which apply to EVERYONE.
Fat chance.

[IDM]

We are getting to the point where Johnson will have to go too.  His credibility is declining by the day.

I can perceive that whilst the Tory MPs may not countenance a vote of no confidence in the government, they may have one for the PM himself.

[SydneyRover]

That's the crux of the matter IDM johnson has backed him and covered up for him although I can't say his credibility is shot he's never had any.

[drfchound]

We are getting to the point where Johnson will have to go too.  His credibility is declining by the day.

I can perceive that whilst the Tory MPs may not countenance a vote of no confidence in the government, they may have one for the PM himself.

I was thinking the same IDM.
The government will obviously see the overall position as more important than BJ himself.

[Nudga]

And with 2,400 NEW cases recorded yesterday if the R number rises then it can and will take off again very quickly, I would think the responces are just a reaction to the frustration to this latest cockup by the johnson government and most will protect themselves and their families.

Exactly!

And Nudga's response (which I fully understand) Is precisely the reason why Cummings wants taking to a big dog. His f**king stupidity is going to result in many, many people saying "f**k the lockdown". And the result of that could be catastrophic.

Does that include false positives and double testing, one for the nose and one for the throat?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Well, parents now know that if they use their 'common sense' and their own 'instincts' and decide that it's not safe to send their kids back to school next week - even if the government tells them they have to - it's a shining example of 'good parenting' and can expect no consequences as a result.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And with 2,400 NEW cases recorded yesterday if the R number rises then it can and will take off again very quickly, I would think the responces are just a reaction to the frustration to this latest cockup by the johnson government and most will protect themselves and their families.

Exactly!

And Nudga's response (which I fully understand) Is precisely the reason why Cummings wants taking to a big dog. His f**king stupidity is going to result in many, many people saying "f**k the lockdown". And the result of that could be catastrophic.

Does that include false positives and double testing, one for the nose and one for the throat?

Nudga

Look at that graph. Think how organised every Government in the world must be if this is a conspiracy.

[BigH]

We are getting to the point where Johnson will have to go too.  His credibility is declining by the day.

I can perceive that whilst the Tory MPs may not countenance a vote of no confidence in the government, they may have one for the PM himself.

Sorry IDM, no chance.

A majority of 80, sycophantic journos and a cabinet of toads.

Johnson isn't going to change his attitude and no one else is in a position to do it for him.

Not for the next four and half years.

[IDM]

I don’t mean to change the government, just the PM.  Something which could happen if enough Tories oppose the PM.

Sycophantic journos.?  Did you read Kuennsberg’s scathing review last night and have you seen the daily mail front page today.?

[Nudga]

And with 2,400 NEW cases recorded yesterday if the R number rises then it can and will take off again very quickly, I would think the responces are just a reaction to the frustration to this latest cockup by the johnson government and most will protect themselves and their families.

Exactly!

And Nudga's response (which I fully understand) Is precisely the reason why Cummings wants taking to a big dog. His f**king stupidity is going to result in many, many people saying "f**k the lockdown". And the result of that could be catastrophic.

Does that include false positives and double testing, one for the nose and one for the throat?

Nudga

Look at that graph. Think how organised every Government in the world must be if this is a conspiracy.

I'll ask again.

Does that include false positives and double testing, one for the nose and one for the throat?

[Glyn_Wigley]

We are getting to the point where Johnson will have to go too.  His credibility is declining by the day.

I can perceive that whilst the Tory MPs may not countenance a vote of no confidence in the government, they may have one for the PM himself.

Sorry IDM, no chance.

A majority of 80, sycophantic journos and a cabinet of toads.

Johnson isn't going to change his attitude and no one else is in a position to do it for him.

Not for the next four and half years.

It happened to the seemingly impregnable Thatcher. And Boris is nowhere near as secure as Thatcher was presumed to be.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And with 2,400 NEW cases recorded yesterday if the R number rises then it can and will take off again very quickly, I would think the responces are just a reaction to the frustration to this latest cockup by the johnson government and most will protect themselves and their families.

Exactly!

And Nudga's response (which I fully understand) Is precisely the reason why Cummings wants taking to a big dog. His f**king stupidity is going to result in many, many people saying "f**k the lockdown". And the result of that could be catastrophic.

Does that include false positives and double testing, one for the nose and one for the throat?

Nudga

Look at that graph. Think how organised every Government in the world must be if this is a conspiracy.

I'll ask again.

Does that include false positives and double testing, one for the nose and one for the throat?

Do you mean that graph or Sydney's 2400 figure?

[Nudga]

Your graph seeing as though you put it up.


Edit, or any graph for that matter.
Does it include the above?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I just thought I'd give you a chance to check. Because I haven't got a scooby what you are on about.

The graph is about recorded deaths, not tests. So what on earth has double testing got to do with it?

[SydneyRover]

Nudga if you're referring to the 2400 new cases these are updated daily on here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

You can click on a country for more info and there are some explanations at the bottom of each page.

You can also click on the 'yesterday' button top left to see how things have changed.

[Nudga]

Ah OK, my bad, I'm currently making frames and boarding out so skim reading through my anger.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nudga.

This isn't a conspiracy.

Look at that graph.

EVERYWHERE in the world where this has taken hold, deaths have doubled at the rate of once every 3.5 days until countries have locked down. And then EVERYWHERE has followed the same reduction after lockdown.

If we hadn't locked down, we'd be well passed the peak now and we'd have about half a million corpses to bury.

If you reckon it's a conspiracy, you require EVERY medic and politician and coroner in Inverness, Munich, Lyon, Valencia, Little Rock, Shanghai and Copenhagen, and a thousand other places all to be in on it and coordinating there numbers every day so they all look the same.

I get your anger and I understand that. But I'd be a f**k sight more angry if we had just had several hundred thousand avoidable deaths last month because of people pushing conspiracy theory b*llocks and refusing to look at the actual facts.

[Nudga]

Alternative theory, thank you.

If multiple countries can be in on the Iraq war "looking for weapons of mass destruction" and the b*llocks that went on before that, then its entirely possible that things can be coordinated.
Especially when people are begging to be locked down and others walk around on their own with a mask on.

[Nudga]

I'd like a 2nd and 3rd opinion of this virus too.
Much I like I would do if I thought I'd been misdiagnosed at hospital.

[idler]

I'd like a 2nd and 3rd opinion of this virus too.
Much I like I would do if I thought I'd been misdiagnosed at hospital.

We came back from Goa at the end of January. Not long after a lady of 72 was told by her grandson a hospital consultant to self isolate. He told her that if she got it she wouldn't be offered a ventilator as these would go to those expected to recover rather than the very old or infirm.
I thought at the time that it was a bit dramatic but she's still isolating and only going out for her exercise walks.
Her grandson tells it like it is and if it was a conspiracy he would have said so. His word would be a good enough second opinion for me.

[BigH]

We are getting to the point where Johnson will have to go too.  His credibility is declining by the day.

I can perceive that whilst the Tory MPs may not countenance a vote of no confidence in the government, they may have one for the PM himself.

Sorry IDM, no chance.

A majority of 80, sycophantic journos and a cabinet of toads.

Johnson isn't going to change his attitude and no one else is in a position to do it for him.

Not for the next four and half years.

It happened to the seemingly impregnable Thatcher. And Boris is nowhere near as secure as Thatcher was presumed to be.

Thatcher was three years into a five year term, had just overseen a policy disaster (the poll tax) and the country was about to enter recession. A couple of parallels there I grant you.

However, she was vulnerable more because there were increasing concerns in the Tory ranks about how they were going to position for the 1991/92 election and, with her having been PM for 11 years, there was a sense that the leadership needed reinvigorating. It proved to be the right call.

At this point, there's no such pressure on the government to think too far ahead. Personally, I think there's a greater chance of Johnson going of his own volition because he doesn't want to do the job rather than others within the party plotting to bring him down.

But then again, with Michael Gove in the background you never know...