Track and Trace

[Bentley Bullet]

I was referring to by the time it is fit for purpose like you were!

[IDM]

Perhaps he meant that by the time this TT system became fit for purpose, there would have been another deadly wave off the virus, something which TT is supposed to help prevent.?

[Bentley Bullet]

Na. He said "by the time it's fit for purpose it won't be needed any more."

I think there is a strong possibility it will be needed, and having it in place will be a massive step forward.

[IDM]

My example BB means TT would not be needed because the spread of the virus would always be ahead of it.

[silent majority]

Won't be needed anymore? Ah, so this is the last epidemic we'll ever have! Thank f**k for that.

So you think using a rubbish system there's no guarantee of ever being fit for purpose at the time that another pandemic happens is a good idea eh? Thank f**k for that. Now, if we asked South Korea if we could use theirs it'd be a good idea as we know that it works.

Use South Koreas what?

Are you talking about an app? You know, the sort of thing you'll not use?

Or a manual T&T system? If so how the heck do you use something based in another country?

[IDM]

The UK should analyse what other countries have done with TT (successfully) and take what can be observed as “best practise”.

I don’t know if they have done that or not.?

I’m all for TT, even an imperfect solution, but it still needs to be effective to a large degree.

Pushing something out for the purpose of hitting a largely arbitrary (political.?) target date is doing it for the wrong reason.

It’s a bit like announcing lockdown relaxation measures on a Thursday, but don’t allow them to come into force until Monday to give people “time to prepare”.. 

[silent majority]

The UK should analyse what other countries have done with TT (successfully) and take what can be observed as “best practise”.

I don’t know if they have done that or not.?

I’m all for TT, even an imperfect solution, but it still needs to be effective to a large degree.

Pushing something out for the purpose of hitting a largely arbitrary (political.?) target date is doing it for the wrong reason.

It’s a bit like announcing lockdown relaxation measures on a Thursday, but don’t allow them to come into force until Monday to give people “time to prepare”.. 

The post I made in #87 earlier in this thread and the links I provided to the research done by MIT suggests that none of these apps work effectively yet, there are only 25 that are either running or in trials whereas there are another 150 in development. Effectively we're no better or worse than anyone else at this stage.

However the manual T&T in the Asian regions had a head start due to their recent experience with SARS. We do have an effective team which has been in place for some time, its the expansion of those numbers which is currently causing the issues.

A bit of balance in some posts wouldn't go amiss.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Won't be needed anymore? Ah, so this is the last epidemic we'll ever have! Thank f**k for that.

So you think using a rubbish system there's no guarantee of ever being fit for purpose at the time that another pandemic happens is a good idea eh? Thank f**k for that. Now, if we asked South Korea if we could use theirs it'd be a good idea as we know that it works.

Use South Koreas what?

Are you talking about an app? You know, the sort of thing you'll not use?

Or a manual T&T system? If so how the heck do you use something based in another country?

I meant the T&T system they have very successfully applied in South Korea. I know it wouldn't be an instant fit in this country but this country could certainly learn from it. It was known about before coronavirus because the Koreans have had the experience of fighting SARS and MERS in the past and honing their response. I just don't get why we haven't learnt from their experience and decided to do something from scratch after the pandemic started.

[silent majority]

Won't be needed anymore? Ah, so this is the last epidemic we'll ever have! Thank f**k for that.

So you think using a rubbish system there's no guarantee of ever being fit for purpose at the time that another pandemic happens is a good idea eh? Thank f**k for that. Now, if we asked South Korea if we could use theirs it'd be a good idea as we know that it works.

Use South Koreas what?

Are you talking about an app? You know, the sort of thing you'll not use?

Or a manual T&T system? If so how the heck do you use something based in another country?

I meant the T&T system they have very successfully applied in South Korea. I know it wouldn't be an instant fit in this country but this country could certainly learn from it. It was known about before coronavirus because the Koreans have had the experience of fighting SARS and MERS in the past and honing their response. I just don't get why we haven't learnt from their experience and decided to do something from scratch after the pandemic started.

We didn't do something from scratch!

We have an effective T&T team in place, it just wasn't big enough to cope with this pandemic and was overrun in the early days.

I fail to see how looking at  S Korea, who don't have an app by the way, could teach us how to run a TTI system. As I've said before, its the scaling up of the system that's the problem not the system itself.

[SydneyRover]

The concept of manaul T&T has been around for decades? a tv doc used a much simplified and  smaller scale version in around 2016. All the discussions around SARS etc Cygnus etc should really have prompted the government to work towards this before the pandemic was on the doorstep and this goes for all other countries too.

[BillyStubbsTears]

SM

Agreed, we have had a TTI capability in place for years. It clearly wasn't effective because it was overwhelmed in late Feb. That is why the epidemic got out of control.

That's not a party political comment. It's just a fact.

And yes, we do now face the problem of massively upscaling our TTI capability. And it's very good to see that we are doing this. It just seems to me to be very dangerous to be easing the lockdown while that system is not yet close to being bedded in, while we still have a high level of new daily cases and a R value very close to 1.

And it's not just me that thinks that policy decision is dangerous. It's also several members of SAGE who went on record saying precisely that yesterday.

Which makes me wonder why the Govt is running so quickly to ease the lockdown. And then it DOES become political.

[silent majority]

BST,

We are making the same point, however what's not a fact is that we were overrun in late February. On the 27th Feb we had 13 known cases in the UK and no deaths, that's not being overrun.

[BillyStubbsTears]

SM

SM.

I think the word "known" in your post is the operative one. The actual number of cases is estimated to be many times that by the end of Feb. Certainly, having Many tens of deaths per day three weeks later does not in any way square with is having just 13 actual cases by end Feb. It actually suggests that the cases at the end of Feb were in the thousands. That shows that out TTI system was not remotely effective at actually finding the cases in the early stages.

As I say, I'm not trying to make a political point about this, but it appears self-evident that we lost control from a very early stage, when numbers were much lower than they are now and we had what we thought was a well-established TTI system.

That says to me that we should proceed with extreme caution now.

[silent majority]

BST,

I'm not disagreeing with most of what you say above, but I do object to you stating that the TTI system was overrun in late February was a fact. You don't know that. It might have been overrun by the time the lockdown was introduced, and clearly was one of the main considerations for introducing a lockdown, but you can't state that it was a fact in late February.

That's simply the point I wish to make, you don't have to emphasise your point by stating something which you can't substantiate.

[Jonathan]

BST,

I'm not disagreeing with most of what you say above, but I do object to you stating that the TTI system was overrun in late February was a fact. You don't know that. It might have been overrun by the time the lockdown was introduced, and clearly was one of the main considerations for introducing a lockdown, but you can't state that it was a fact in late February.

That's simply the point I wish to make, you don't have to emphasise your point by stating something which you can't substantiate.

I think it’s a perfectly reasonable assumption based on the escalation of the situation. The warning on the limited tracing capacity is documented in the SAGE minutes on 18th February and routine testing ended on 12th March, still a couple of weeks ahead of lockdown. I would argue that those timings do substantiate a reasonable conclusion that the tracing capability was already at the point of being overrun by the end of February.

Let’s all hope that the flaws in the scaled up relaunch can be ironed out quickly. I thought the whole point of the lockdown was to protect existing capacity and prepare the measures that need to be taken to support a relaxation. Whichever way you look at it, app or no app, our system does appear to be lagging behind other parts of the world. I take no pleasure in saying that, I want it to work. We all need it to. Few could argue it’s fit for purpose nationwide, yet.

[BillyStubbsTears]

SM

It's very simple and entirely explicable. Follow the logic.

The generally accepted figures are that the Infection Fatality Ratio is about 1%, and the average time from infection to death is 18-28 days.

Agreed?

Now, you quote, correctly, that the total number of KNOWN CV-19 cases in the UK was 13 on 27 Feb.

But, 18-28 days from then is 16-26 March.

There were 16 deaths on 16 March. 183 on 26 March.

The average number of DAILY deaths between 16-26 March  was about 85 per day.

There is simply no way that you are getting 85 deaths per day, if you only had 13 total cases on 27 Feb with an IFR of 1% and ~23 days infection to death. It is simply not possible.

85 deaths per day around 20 March, with IFR of 1% and ~23 days infection to death, with Primary school.maths says that we had several thousand cases in late Feb.

There is no arguing that logic if you accept the premises, and the premises have been confirmed, more or less, in lots of independent assessments.

So, actually, yes I CAN say that the TTI system was pretty much totally ineffective by late Feb. It was almost certainly picking up fewer than 1% of the actual number of infections. Which means we had totally lost control.

I'm not pointing fingers in saying that. It's just a simple application of logic.

[albie]

SM/BST,

The CSO Patrick Vallance pointed out in mid April that T+T was not developed quickly enough;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/england-coronavirus-testing-has-not-risen-fast-enough-science-chief

While the UK has increased capacity for testing since then, the T+T infrastructure is still not at a point that lockdown can be relaxed. It is still some time away.

Despite that, the political decision to release lockdown has been made.
If you know of any scientific opinion which supports that decision, please post a link....I am not aware of such advice.

Off camera expansion of mortuary capacity suggests that the UK knows that a second wave is imminient, in late June/early July. The T+T system may be fully operational by the next peak.

This is a decision taken in the knowledge of consequences for the vulnerable, that much is clear.

[ravenrover]

Hasn't one of the experts come out and said that the system just coulldn't cope and that was why they stopped it?

[drfchound]

One of my pals has a “friend” who is a habitual burglar.
The burglar friend has said that there is no way he will download the T&T App.

[BillyStubbsTears]

More evidence that the actual number of CV-19 infections in the UK was way higher than the officially recorded number at the end of Feb comes from the Kings College tracker project.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

Their study suggests that there were more than 2 million symptomatic cases on 1 April. It is generally found that half the total cases are asymptomatic, so it's reasonable to assume that the total number of cases in the UK on 1 April was around 4million.

1 April is 34 days after 27 Feb.

Before lockdown, pretty much every country in the world had an outbreak where the number of cases was doubling every 3.5 or so days.

So that means ten doublings between 27 Feb and 1 April. 10 doublings means an increase of 1000x.

So that indicates that we had something like 4000 actual infections in the UK on 27 Feb. whereas the official recorded number was 13.

Even if you ignore the asymptomatic cases, the KC study would have to be out by a factor of nearly 200 to tie in with here only being 13 cases on 27 Feb. That is simply not credible.

Alternatively, for the number of cases to increase from 13 on 27 Feb to 4million on 1 April, the doubling time would have had to be 1.9 days throughout March. No country in the world has seen a doubling time as low as that.

As I say, everything points to the actual number of cases in the UK at the end of Feb being in the thousands - high hundreds at the very least if you stretch every possible allowance to breaking point.

So a TTI system that had 13 recorded cases was simply not functioning in any way that could have made a serious effect on containing the epidemic. the only possible solution from then was a lockdown. And we chose not to do that for another 4 weeks, with the devastating results that we have seen.

Had we locked down just two weeks earlier, we would now be looking like Germany. Instead of like Brazil.

[Filo]

More evidence that the actual number of CV-19 infections in the UK was way higher than the officially recorded number at the end of Feb comes from the Kings College tracker project.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

Their study suggests that there were more than 2 million symptomatic cases on 1 April. It is generally found that half the total cases are asymptomatic, so it's reasonable to assume that the total number of cases in the UK on 1 April was around 4million.

1 April is 34 days after 27 Feb.

Before lockdown, pretty much every country in the world had an outbreak where the number of cases was doubling every 3.5 or so days.

So that means ten doublings between 27 Feb and 1 April. 10 doublings means an increase of 1000x.

So that indicates that we had something like 4000 actual infections in the UK on 27 Feb. whereas the official recorded number was 13.

Even if you ignore the asymptomatic cases, the KC study would have to be out by a factor of nearly 200 to tie in with here only being 13 cases on 27 Feb. That is simply not credible.

Alternatively, for the number of cases to increase from 13 on 27 Feb to 4million on 1 April, the doubling time would have had to be 1.9 days throughout March. No country in the world has seen a doubling time as low as that.

As I say, everything points to the actual number of cases in the UK at the end of Feb being in the thousands - high hundreds at the very least if you stretch every possible allowance to breaking point.

So a TTI system that had 13 recorded cases was simply not functioning in any way that could have made a serious effect on containing the epidemic. the only possible solution from then was a lockdown. And we chose not to do that for another 4 weeks, with the devastating results that we have seen.

Had we locked down just two weeks earlier, we would now be looking like Germany. Instead of like Brazil.

And thats why when the penny finally dropped, they had to throw the kitchen sink at it financially, and that is why we are easing lockdown early, to protect the economy regardless of the death toll   

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's no question Filo that the economy hawks in the Cabinet have won.

Given where our current situation is, it will take superb management to avoid a serious second wave and lockdown. I truly, truly want the Govt to prove me wrong, but every instinct says they are not up to the task.

The BMJ has written an excoriating editorial this weekend more or less pleading with the CSA and CMO to examine their conscience and speak out publicly on this.

[albie]

Back to the crucial data question.

Some on here seem very relaxed about sharing their data, and unconcerned about who holds that data and for what purposes it might be applied.

I would suggest considering why Palantir want this information;
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/revealed-trump-backers-spy-firm-lobbied-gove-hancock-before-winning-key-nhs-contract/

From that, you need to be sure that they are an ethical organisation, committed to the public interest in the use of such material.

[i_ateallthepies]

I won't need to dwell to long on that question, albie.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not the most auspicious start for TTI.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1271049487310561280

There were estimated to be about 35000 new infections last week. So that means they haven't traced the contacts of  85% of the newly infected cases.

I'm.sure it will improve, but it looks like it's got a hell of a way to go.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's certainly plenty of spare capacity.

They have 25,000 track and trace staff. Between them, last week they contacted 26,000 contacts of people who'd had positive tests.

That's one per week, each.

You might recall Johnson promised we'd have a globally leading TTI system running from 1 June...

[Donnywolf]

... as a smokescreen to take Cummings out of the headlines

Shameful and shameless behaviour. Im afraid he (Johnson) is a mere clown amongst the PMs we have had on both sides as I have only really known Red and Blue

Remind me someone of the Ivor Biggun Song ...it fits Johnson to a tee

[BigH]

Fear not, Lady Dildo Harding is in charge.

Great credentials: fully paid up member of the Tory Party and House of Lords, married to a Tory MP, daughter of a Lord, grand daughter of a Field Marshall. Went to Oxford and Harvard. The right type.

Like that other legend, Helen Whately, started off at McKinsey. Not sure what she did. But what the heck, mixed in the right circles.

Used to be CEO of Talk Talk. You know, that company that suffered a cyber attack a few years back that saw the details of 4 million customers divulged. When asked if the affected customer data was encrypted or not, she replied: "The awful truth is that I don’t know". The company later admitted that that little episode had probably cost it £60m and 95,000 lost customers.

Loves horse racing apparently. Sits on the Board of the Jockey Club. Yes, they're the people that run the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

So, there you have it, a world beater to drive delivery of our world beating TTI system.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The UK couple who went to New Zealand with CV-19.

Apparently the NZ TTI system tracked, traced and isolated 320 contacts in two days!

THAT is what a functioning TTI system looks like.

By contrast, in its first week, our TTI system isolated 3 contacts per infection in 7 days.

[Donnywolf]

Ah dont forget though we were promised a "World Crass system" - and they have delivered !