The Climate Crisis

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Labour want to privatise a steel company if possible, but also reduce emissions from a blast furnace - it isn't compatible.

Sweden have done it - using hydrogen

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/-world-first-as-hydrogen-used-to-power-commercial-steel-production/2-1-799308

Wilts if you read it they aren't replacing blast furnaces with it but the furnaces within other areas (different science and end product) a step but not the full one.

Blimey give them chance, they have only just started it!

It was discussed on the radio this morning, which is how I heard about it, as the future for steel making to become mainstream in the later part of the decade. If it is then I am sure we will hear more about it.

We will see. I'm not sure either the climate or steel industry can wait that long. The industry operates on tiny margins with competition. To make something worldwide that is both green and profitable is something that I struggle to see happening anytime soon.  The cost of even developing new tech in that sector is eyewatering.

[belton rover]

Labour want to privatise a steel company if possible, but also reduce emissions from a blast furnace - it isn't compatible.

Sweden have done it - using hydrogen

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/-world-first-as-hydrogen-used-to-power-commercial-steel-production/2-1-799308

Wilts if you read it they aren't replacing blast furnaces with it but the furnaces within other areas (different science and end product) a step but not the full one.

Blimey give them chance, they have only just started it!

I thought you were talking abut the UK’s life without the EU for a second.

[SydneyRover]

''Oil firms knew decades ago fossil fuels posed grave health risks, files reveal
Exclusive: documents seen by Guardian show companies fought clean-air rules despite being aware of harm caused by air pollution''

Armed with full disclosure the world could have moved forward to combat deadly air pollution and fight the effects of global waming at the same time.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/18/oil-industry-fossil-fuels-air-pollution-documents#:~:text=The%20oil%20industry%20knew%20at,seen%20by%20the%20Guardian%20reveal.

[scawsby steve]

Genuine question SS (very sad that we have to write that these days...). How have you managed that and how do you measure it?

I suppose I'm just talking about personal choices. I no longer smoke, no longer drive a car, no longer use buses, and no longer travel on planes.

However, I admit there are other reasons involved for these decisions as well.

I can confirm that SS has never been a believer in using buses, mainly because he always missed the last bus from Donny of a night. Often saw him with his mop of hair and Crombie making his slow way along York Road. I'm guessing the hair and crombie are long gone but not the aversion to public transport 

You're right, Raven, the afro hair and the crombie are long gone; and so has the youthful Mungo Jerry face, which has somehow morphed into a cross between Arthur Mullard and a f*cking gargoyle.

[Nudga]

I wonder if young Greta will be outraged about the biohazardous filthy blue masks clotting up the oceans?

[SydneyRover]

She's too busy looking after the greta good Nudga 

[albie]

As a follow up to the reduction in grants for EV, here is an article about those still eligible;
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-9377363/EVs-Government-subsidise-slashed-plug-car-grant.html

Focus on the lower priced market, away from Tesla.

[RobTheRover]

I genuinely hope you are right Albie. I'm sceptical that developing countries will be able to develop carbon-free power sources quickly but I admit I'm no expert - that's a gut instinct.

They don't have to when companies in the West will fund it for them as a carbon offset of their own emissions.

[River Don]

I suppose what it is with developing countries, as much as the industrialisation taking place, there are more fundamental changes taking place.

So a growing population that is becoming more wealthy is likely to be eating more meat and more red meat. Better housing requirements means more building, more roads, generally more concrete being poured so more carbon. That's before we get to motorbikes and cars that are still much more likely to be powered by combustion engines. The lifestyles are inevitably becoming more carbon intensive with wealth.

The bottom line is despite all the initiatives in the west like carbon offsets, green energy and the introduction of electric vehicles, almost every single year emissions still rise globally. Which means, given the time constraints there has to be a much more robust approach than we have seen so far. I'm not sure it can happen without falling living standards.... Which no politician can tolerate.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD.
Maintenance of living standards in the developed world (in fact, maintenance of at least a gradual increase in living standards) is a prerequisite for any policy.

If history tells us anything (both long gone history and the experience of the past 10 years) it is that once you break the social contract that people in developed countries can get on by working hard, you immediately empower a populist Right that would pull the plug (no pun) on the altruistic (actually, "enlightened self-interest") approach that we are going to need over the next 50 years, of subsidising the low-carbon development of the developing world.

[albie]

Ski-ing way off piste here, Lads.

If you look at the key trends in the power sector, then no subsidy is going to be required.
https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/BNEF-2021-Executive-Factbook.pdf
Bloomberg New Energy finance gives an indication of future trends.
See the section of graphics on power from p.23.

The only sector which will require subsidy to remain active is the fossil fuel sector.

[River Don]

Albie,

We've been seeing reports like that for 30 years or more. The only pertinent graph in it is the first one which shows Co2 levels steadily growing. In fact if anything the rate is increasing not slowing.

So while some trends in energy production maybe down other trends are obviously still going up. The initial report I linked to says the IEA are forecasting oil production to rise. Not fall.

The difficulty is growth. While some areas maybe coming more efficient and some fall away, overall there are ever more people wanting ever more. So I can't help but be pessimistic really.

[albie]

RD,

Sorry, but no renewable energy professional will agree with you, and neither do investment analysts!

I thought we were talking about Africa, and the potential for development on a clean path rather than the historical trajectory of the developed economies.

The IEA arose from the oil crises, and has been essentially a lobby for fossil fuel interests.
In the past, most work on energy systems from a reputable source has sought to extrapolate current trend by linear assumptions.

Every previous IEA report made the same mistake, and every forecast from them has proved incorrect, and by a large margin.

The IEA has belatedly revised its assessment of renewables;
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

The critical error is always to assume that a single sector change does not imply a system wide re-allocation of priorities.
The point I am making is that the cost basis for a fundamental shift is now in place, and that will change everything in its wake.

That said, repositioning of developed economies is a challenge. It is not the same challenge that faces sub-saharan Africa!

[Axholme Lion]

I wonder if young Greta will be outraged about the biohazardous filthy blue masks clotting up the oceans?

Do you not think it is funny that in general the same people who say that Shamima Begum was too young to know what she was doing when she joined ISIS are the same people who think that Greta the doom dwarf has all the answers?

[SydneyRover]

The far right coalition government here is resisting all attempts for a sensible approach to mitigating the effects of climate change, but is being thwarted by an energy industry that will not finance thermal coal or gas power stations and are building solar farms and battery banks leaving traditional forms of power generation as stranded assets. This has brought significant price reductions to households, the opposite of what was predicted by the right.

The labor state governments here are in a role reversal with Qld, WA and NT forging ahead with fracking and coalmines ... Lino's (labor in name only) while NSW, a right wing coalition has recently announced a 32bn renewables package.

''In a move that experts say highlights the seismic changes underway in fossil fuel industries including natural gas, the owners of the Dampier-to-Bunbury gas pipeline want to bring its effective end-of-life forward from 2090 to 2063''

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/dampier-to-bunbury-gas-pipeline-lifespan-slashed/13239444

In a press release Greta sends her love and suggests we wait for AL to grow up before judging him.

[albie]

Given the reducing costs of renewable energy technologies, any rational economic choice will be to select the least cost option for new capacity.

The resource base comes free of charge, so those with abundant sunshine and wind are quids in going forward.
Rather than political decisions being dominated by the need to access oil or gas, maybe the future is in electricity export transfer, and storage in batteries.

Hydrogen is an interesting means of transfer, if it is derived from clean tech sources.

Sydney has hit the nail on the head about the delay introduced by the legacy industry. Incumbents defending their patch is the big brake on change, but on cost grounds alone they can't win.

Diversion strategies like CCS just get in the way, and gobble up money better spent on real solutions.

[Axholme Lion]

The far right coalition government here is resisting all attempts for a sensible approach to mitigating the effects of climate change, but is being thwarted by an energy industry that will not finance thermal coal or gas power stations and are building solar farms and battery banks leaving traditional forms of power generation as stranded assets. This has brought significant price reductions to households, the opposite of what was predicted by the right.

The labor state governments here are in a role reversal with Qld, WA and NT forging ahead with fracking and coalmines ... Lino's (labor in name only) while NSW, a right wing coalition has recently announced a 32bn renewables package.

''In a move that experts say highlights the seismic changes underway in fossil fuel industries including natural gas, the owners of the Dampier-to-Bunbury gas pipeline want to bring its effective end-of-life forward from 2090 to 2063''

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/dampier-to-bunbury-gas-pipeline-lifespan-slashed/13239444

In a press release Greta sends her love and suggests we wait for AL to grow up before judging him.

Hasn't she got any home work to finish?

[River Don]

Albie,

The rescource base is far from being free. Yes the wind blows and the sun shines for nothing but turbines, solar panels and batteries all have to be manufactured, transported, maintained and quite regularly replaced. That comes with both economic and environmental costs.

Add to that the cost of running a parallel natural gas system, to kick in when it's not windy or sunny and it all adds up.

[SydneyRover]

Eventually batteries and storage and other energy storage facilities will make it unecessary to run traditional power plants.

[River Don]

Eventually batteries and storage and other energy storage facilities will make it unecessary to run traditional power plants.

Pembroke Nat gas powerstation has a power output of 2,200MW.

The largest battery installation in the world is the gateway Lith-ion battery at San Diego. It can supply 230MW. For one hour.

I'd say we are still a very long way off replacing Nat Gas with batteries.

[SydneyRover]

Nw energy sources are being developed all the time RD and yes the tipping point is a far away but I wouldn't want my money in thermal coal

''BHP commits to selling its thermal coalmines within two years.
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining''

''BHP confirms coal exits as profits underwhelm''

these show that large miners are looking elsewhere and mines that are inefficient or produce poor quality coal will go first

[River Don]

The UKs biggest powerplant is still Drax. Except that's been converted from coal to burning trees now.

I'm not really convinced burning wood pellets is a sustainable green form of energy. It certainly won't be if other nations follow our lead.

[SydneyRover]

It's green if the wood is from a sustainable source the main problen I would think as with incinerators is the fine particle pollution.

'''Invisible killer': fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, research finds
Pollution from power plants, vehicles and other sources accounted for one in five of all deaths that year, more detailed analysis reveals''

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/fossil-fuels-pollution-deaths-research

[River Don]

It's the sustainable sources that's the problem, trees just don't grow that quickly.

If the Chinese decided they wanted to follow the British lead and go green by burning trees in their coal fired powerstations then Canada's forests wouldn't last long, assuming the Canadians were willing to sell them the wood. At best it's only a limited solution that will require strict oversight and management of forests.

That's not to say particulate pollution isn't also a significant problem with burning wood.

[SydneyRover]

I got the 'main' bit wrong about pollution RD the main problem is global warming but fine particle pollution and associated deaths and suffering should deter most sensible governments from building new ones and speed up the retiement of those still in service.

[Nudga]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bill-gates-backs-bid-to-cool-earth-with-chalk-dust-llrbmwlmr


Don't worry, uncle Bill will save us by spraying chalk dust into the atmosphere to block out some of the sun's energy.
Not sure chalk dust particles on people's lungs has been thought of though?

[SydneyRover]

paywall Nudga

[albie]

Albie,

The rescource base is far from being free. Yes the wind blows and the sun shines for nothing but turbines, solar panels and batteries all have to be manufactured, transported, maintained and quite regularly replaced. That comes with both economic and environmental costs.

Add to that the cost of running a parallel natural gas system, to kick in when it's not windy or sunny and it all adds up.

RD,

Apologies if I have not been clear. I was referring to the fuel cost to allow the installation to work, not the cost of infrastructure.

Energy investments are measured by something called the "levelized cost of energy".
In brief, this takes the capital expenditure of the infrastructure, adds in the cost of the energy source (zero for solar and wind), then amortises the total over the lifetime of the facility.

This is to allow comparison of costs over time, to inform decision makers.
So all the running costs, including replacement of parts, is fully accounted.

As Sydney says, the operation of a parallel gas system is a transition requirement, but over time it will be retired in many locations. The UK is planning to phase out new gas boilers from 2025 at present.

Technologies offering lower capital costs, (which are continuing to fall), with much lower operating costs, will win out in all places where governments are not in hock to fossil fuel interests.

[River Don]

Albie,

The rescource base is far from being free. Yes the wind blows and the sun shines for nothing but turbines, solar panels and batteries all have to be manufactured, transported, maintained and quite regularly replaced. That comes with both economic and environmental costs.

Add to that the cost of running a parallel natural gas system, to kick in when it's not windy or sunny and it all adds up.

RD,

Apologies if I have not been clear. I was referring to the fuel cost to allow the installation to work, not the cost of infrastructure.

Energy investments are measured by something called the "levelized cost of energy".
In brief, this takes the capital expenditure of the infrastructure, adds in the cost of the energy source (zero for solar and wind), then amortises the total over the lifetime of the facility.

This is to allow comparison of costs over time, to inform decision makers.
So all the running costs, including replacement of parts, is fully accounted.

As Sydney says, the operation of a parallel gas system is a transition requirement, but over time it will be retired in many locations. The UK is planning to phase out new gas boilers from 2025 at present.

Technologies offering lower capital costs, (which are continuing to fall), with much lower operating costs, will win out in all places where governments are not in hock to fossil fuel interests.

How does the levelised energy cost of solar and wind compare with natural gas, if the transitional parallel gas system is included? I expect just running gas would be cheaper because there's only half the infrastructure to maintain.

I did not know the UK is planning on phasing out new gas systems by 2025... Just 4 years. That will still allow for a few decades of gas power from existing facilities, though won't it?

It must because there will have to be some huge leaps forward in battery technology before we can rely on that. What else is there? Dropping weights down mineshafts? Some sort of hydro storage?  New small scale nuclear facilities?

It's going to be very challenging.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Small Modular Nuclear reactors are in development at the moment. Whether they will be safe, efficient or practical, I've no idea, but the Govt is chucking money at the development of them.

https://www.rolls-royce.com/products-and-services/nuclear/small-modular-reactors.aspx#/