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Author Topic: Local Elections And Hartlepool  (Read 24105 times)

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selby

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #30 on April 06, 2021, 02:47:58 pm by selby »
  LDR, the notion that people see themselves as working class went out with manufacturing, do you honestly think that the office workers now working from home see themselves as working class?
  The days when thousands of workers worked in the same factories, members of the same unions, living locally being members of the same sports and social clubs, and basically having the same political views and doctrines has disappeared and the individuals now see themselves as socially above the working class as we knew it.
  The movement for home workers to have a four day working week, have a much more leisure and  not so regimented hours will spread the workforce even wider and in smaller social numbers, where the thoughts of the individual will take precedence over the collective.
  Non of which helps the traditional Labour Party, who over time will become similar to the Liberal Party and insignificant always attracting the immigrant and socially poorer factions who depend on government benefits but are seen as a burden by many.
  The current political and economic situation will only widen the difference in the haves and have nots.



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #31 on April 06, 2021, 04:11:30 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
What is it about Starmer's recent polling that convinces you he has a hope of running the country Billy?

I like it that under Corbyn it was the fault of 'the left' that Labour wasn'r polling well.

Now under Starmer its' sill the fault of the left they are not polling well.

If the right wing of the Labour Party insist on attacking a left-wing leader when he is in power, then attacking and alienating left-wing activists when they have power - maybe you should look somewhere else for the problem when they are not polling well.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1378993035875393536


Wilts.

Perhaps you could address what I said in this thread rather than what I didn't say.

I'll repeat it. If Labour plays the game by the Culture War rules, it loses. Regardless of whether it plays socially liberal, socially conservative, or balanced.

Labour can only win if it puts a radical economics package forward and moves the agenda onto that topic.

That is where Corbyn failed. He had the right economic line, but he was too easy to take on, on the Culture War angle.

Starmer and Dodds's economics are nigh on identical to Corbyn's, as they should be because that is economically good for the country, and popular. I simply don't get why the Left doesn't see this, but berates Starmer as a traitor (worse! a Blairite!) for trying to neutralise the Culture War issue. And equally, I don't get what people like Tyke want, insisting on Labour meeting his demands on being anti-minority, without seeing that would alienate the socially liberal Labour supporters.

Both sides need to realise that they can win the internal battle, but doing so will lose the external war.

wilts rover

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #32 on April 06, 2021, 04:20:07 pm by wilts rover »
What is it about Starmer's recent polling that convinces you he has a hope of running the country Billy?

I like it that under Corbyn it was the fault of 'the left' that Labour wasn'r polling well.

Now under Starmer its' sill the fault of the left they are not polling well.

If the right wing of the Labour Party insist on attacking a left-wing leader when he is in power, then attacking and alienating left-wing activists when they have power - maybe you should look somewhere else for the problem when they are not polling well.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1378993035875393536


Wilts.

Perhaps you could address what I said in this thread rather than what I didn't say.

I'll repeat it. If Labour plays the game by the Culture War rules, it loses. Regardless of whether it plays socially liberal, socially conservative, or balanced.

Labour can only win if it puts a radical economics package forward and moves the agenda onto that topic.

That is where Corbyn failed. He had the right economic line, but he was too easy to take on, on the Culture War angle.

Starmer and Dodds's economics are nigh on identical to Corbyn's, as they should be because that is economically good for the country, and popular. I simply don't get why the Left doesn't see this, but berates Starmer as a traitor (worse! a Blairite!) for trying to neutralise the Culture War issue. And equally, I don't get what people like Tyke want, insisting on Labour meeting his demands on being anti-minority, without seeing that would alienate the socially liberal Labour supporters.

Both sides need to realise that they can win the internal battle, but doing so will lose the external war.

Billy, if you can address what I wrote in reply to your original post (inuding Jon Stone's link) you will see why Starmer won't win Hartlepool - or the next GE.

There is no sides in the Labour Party. There is Keir Starmer's Labour Party - and you can read the polls for yourself.

wilts rover

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #33 on April 06, 2021, 04:25:18 pm by wilts rover »
  LDR, the notion that people see themselves as working class went out with manufacturing, do you honestly think that the office workers now working from home see themselves as working class?
  The days when thousands of workers worked in the same factories, members of the same unions, living locally being members of the same sports and social clubs, and basically having the same political views and doctrines has disappeared and the individuals now see themselves as socially above the working class as we knew it.
  The movement for home workers to have a four day working week, have a much more leisure and  not so regimented hours will spread the workforce even wider and in smaller social numbers, where the thoughts of the individual will take precedence over the collective.
  Non of which helps the traditional Labour Party, who over time will become similar to the Liberal Party and insignificant always attracting the immigrant and socially poorer factions who depend on government benefits but are seen as a burden by many.
  The current political and economic situation will only widen the difference in the haves and have nots.

It's rare (although more common than you might think) that I agree with you Selby but yes pretty much all of that.

It boils down to 'what does Keir Starmer stand for'. I can't tell you and have been saying for months on the other thread that he needs to address that.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #34 on April 06, 2021, 04:41:28 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Not massively helpful Wilts.

Your approach seems to have been to uncritically support a leader who took Labour to its worst polling and election results in 100 years (entirely predictable, and predicted well before it happened) then say to the new leadership "your party - your fault if you don't fix it".

I do agree that the question is what Starmer stands for. But I fear that question is only being posed so that people can use the answer to beat him with. Because he will not and must not stand for undiluted Corbynism.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #35 on April 06, 2021, 04:46:30 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Back to the original point I was making, we were told by the Sanders wing of the Democrat party that the problem with Biden was that he was too centrist. He wasn't on the side of the people. It wasn't clear what he stood for.

It's very clear what he stood for now. And since he's won an election, what he stands for is more than just a badge to polish up and wear with pride. He's going to be able to start changing the socio-economic direction of America.

There's a lesson there for anyone (currently or recently) in the Labour party if they want to learn it. Like the man said that I quoted, win from the centre; govern from the Left. Which requires some rapid growing up.

Ldr

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #36 on April 06, 2021, 04:50:51 pm by Ldr »
So lie about what you want to be elected on?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #37 on April 06, 2021, 04:58:31 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I'd call it emphasis.

Don't paint yourself as a barricade-manning smash-the-stater.

Paint yourself as someone who will do what is necessary for the country. If that happens to be a radical economics package, so be it.

The unpleasant part of that for the Left is that it means consciously distancing yourself from the red flag. And that's not the mood music that the couple of hundred thousand people who joined and took over the party 6 years ago want to hear.

Ldr

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #38 on April 06, 2021, 05:01:18 pm by Ldr »
I'd call it emphasis.

Don't paint yourself as a barricade-manning smash-the-stater.

Paint yourself as someone who will do what is necessary for the country. If that happens to be a radical economics package, so be it.

The unpleasant part of that for the Left is that it means consciously distancing yourself from the red flag. And that's not the mood music that the couple of hundred thousand people who joined and took over the party 6 years ago want to hear.

Unfortunately the bed was made when the party opened the doors to the lunatic fringe

Filo

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #39 on April 06, 2021, 05:03:42 pm by Filo »
So lie about what you want to be elected on?

Seemed to work well for the Conservatives

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #40 on April 06, 2021, 05:04:14 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Ldr.
You are too young to remember it, but Thatcher won in 1979, absolutely not by campaigning on what she was going to do.

If she had campaigned by saying she was going to double interest rates and VAT, put 3 million on the dole and eviscerate large parts of British industry,do you think she would have won in 1979? Of course not. She'd have been hammered. But she went into that election determined to do that if she won, believing it was right for the country.

That's politics. Political romantics like to think that Opposition's win by convincing the electorate that a revolution is required. How Oppositions actually win is by convincing enough people that they'd be better off under them than under the Govt. THEN you can be revolutionary if you think that is what is required.

drfchound

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #41 on April 06, 2021, 05:08:03 pm by drfchound »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.

Ldr

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #42 on April 06, 2021, 05:09:22 pm by Ldr »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.

So why has no socialist Labour party won since 74?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #43 on April 06, 2021, 05:26:15 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.
The 2017 one didn't. It was perfectly sensible economics which the Tories painted as dangerous Marxism.

The 2019 one was an absolute car crash with uncosted promises thrown in as mad panics.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #44 on April 06, 2021, 05:32:41 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.

So why has no socialist Labour party won since 74?

Entire PhDs have been written on that topic. But the fact that Britain's mass circulation papers are by some way the most virulently right wing in the Western world. It was always going to be difficult for any left of centre party to get a fair hearing when the Mail, Sun and Express were for decades the primary information source of up to 10 million families.

selby

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #45 on April 06, 2021, 05:54:59 pm by selby »
  Well Billy, you have at least confirmed that winning an election has never been about the people voting, but purely the gaining of power a result gives the winning party, and I have always agreed with that always being the main reason for a general election.
 And I think a lot more of the general public especially the over 50's who have not come through the modern left wing educational system pushing its propaganda have tumbled to it as well, and is the reason for Labours demise and slow decline into obscurity not helped by the parties insistence of moving away from it's roots and constantly putting forward educated no marks with the airs and graces of college life and a silver spoon pushing on everyone the plight of the unwashed and immigrant communities while totally ignoring the wishes of the communities they constantly called their heartlands and also constantly ignored until election time when they might deem it prudent to visit for half an hour to tell their lap dogs they were being listened to while the rest of the country had millions spent on it.
  Now they are at a loss because they are reaping the harvest they have lost.

selby

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #46 on April 06, 2021, 06:05:40 pm by selby »
  Why did the Tories win the last election by a land slide then Billy, when the BBC backed the remain stance consistently every news cast and the papers circulation has taken an all mighty drop in circulation.
  Are you  blaming a media model that is out of fashion, saying the BBC didn't give it their best shot on the media that rules all others, or can you give credit to the people of the UK for making their own minds up.
  Of course The Guardian didn't at any time try to take the remain side of the referendum, not that many would have noticed'
  Only a couple on here notice they are still at it.

Herbert Anchovy

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #47 on April 06, 2021, 06:08:41 pm by Herbert Anchovy »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.

So why has no socialist Labour party won since 74?

Entire PhDs have been written on that topic. But the fact that Britain's mass circulation papers are by some way the most virulently right wing in the Western world. It was always going to be difficult for any left of centre party to get a fair hearing when the Mail, Sun and Express were for decades the primary information source of up to 10 million families.

True this.
Back in the 1980’s I was very active in the Labour Party. No matter how bad Thatcher was for the country, we lost election after election to a Tory government that seemed to be at war with chunks of British society.

I recall attending a conference fringe meeting where a Woman dared to suggest that the party should accept that the news media held great influence on voters and that maybe we should ‘play the game’ and work with the press rather than see them as the enemy. She was roundly booed by the party masses and she disappeared into obscurity. However, I like to think that she sowed a seed somewhere. Slowly, the party began to understand that if they wanted to win power they’d have to embrace the media, no matter how much it hurt. Very slowly with John Smith and then Tony Blair, they began to work with the media and press (albeit through gritted teeth) until they were beating the Tories at their own game to the point where even The Sun supported Labour.

Whether we like it or not, Labour need to win over the press, who’s natural inclination is right wing overall, before it will win another General Election. Right now there’s a Tory feel good factor due to the success of the vaccine. However, once that passes and we end up seeing who’ll be paying for the cost of Covid-19, that’ll be the time for Labour to take the initiative.

Ldr

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #48 on April 06, 2021, 06:32:04 pm by Ldr »
So how much is weakness of presentation v weakness of policy

Herbert Anchovy

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #49 on April 06, 2021, 06:37:05 pm by Herbert Anchovy »
So how much is weakness of presentation v weakness of policy

Good question and one that’s difficult to answer. I guess that it depends how the policy is presented by the press.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #50 on April 06, 2021, 06:48:20 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
I think the problem right now is labour don't have any policies.

drfchound

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #51 on April 06, 2021, 08:56:52 pm by drfchound »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.

So why has no socialist Labour party won since 74?

Entire PhDs have been written on that topic. But the fact that Britain's mass circulation papers are by some way the most virulently right wing in the Western world. It was always going to be difficult for any left of centre party to get a fair hearing when the Mail, Sun and Express were for decades the primary information source of up to 10 million families.

True this.
Back in the 1980’s I was very active in the Labour Party. No matter how bad Thatcher was for the country, we lost election after election to a Tory government that seemed to be at war with chunks of British society.

I recall attending a conference fringe meeting where a Woman dared to suggest that the party should accept that the news media held great influence on voters and that maybe we should ‘play the game’ and work with the press rather than see them as the enemy. She was roundly booed by the party masses and she disappeared into obscurity. However, I like to think that she sowed a seed somewhere. Slowly, the party began to understand that if they wanted to win power they’d have to embrace the media, no matter how much it hurt. Very slowly with John Smith and then Tony Blair, they began to work with the media and press (albeit through gritted teeth) until they were beating the Tories at their own game to the point where even The Sun supported Labour.

Whether we like it or not, Labour need to win over the press, who’s natural inclination is right wing overall, before it will win another General Election. Right now there’s a Tory feel good factor due to the success of the vaccine. However, once that passes and we end up seeing who’ll be paying for the cost of Covid-19, that’ll be the time for Labour to take the initiative.




Herbert, i think it is fair to say that anyone with any sense will know that the taxpayer will bear the brunt of the costs for the covid bills.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #52 on April 06, 2021, 09:11:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I think the problem right now is labour don't have any policies.
Fair enough, regarding detail.

But can you point me in the direction of ANY Opposition that has developed detailed policies three years out from an election and won?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #53 on April 06, 2021, 09:13:14 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.

So why has no socialist Labour party won since 74?

Entire PhDs have been written on that topic. But the fact that Britain's mass circulation papers are by some way the most virulently right wing in the Western world. It was always going to be difficult for any left of centre party to get a fair hearing when the Mail, Sun and Express were for decades the primary information source of up to 10 million families.

True this.
Back in the 1980’s I was very active in the Labour Party. No matter how bad Thatcher was for the country, we lost election after election to a Tory government that seemed to be at war with chunks of British society.

I recall attending a conference fringe meeting where a Woman dared to suggest that the party should accept that the news media held great influence on voters and that maybe we should ‘play the game’ and work with the press rather than see them as the enemy. She was roundly booed by the party masses and she disappeared into obscurity. However, I like to think that she sowed a seed somewhere. Slowly, the party began to understand that if they wanted to win power they’d have to embrace the media, no matter how much it hurt. Very slowly with John Smith and then Tony Blair, they began to work with the media and press (albeit through gritted teeth) until they were beating the Tories at their own game to the point where even The Sun supported Labour.

Whether we like it or not, Labour need to win over the press, who’s natural inclination is right wing overall, before it will win another General Election. Right now there’s a Tory feel good factor due to the success of the vaccine. However, once that passes and we end up seeing who’ll be paying for the cost of Covid-19, that’ll be the time for Labour to take the initiative.




Herbert, i think it is fair to say that anyone with any sense will know that the taxpayer will bear the brunt of the costs for the covid bills.

AKA "Everybody".

The days when "the taxpayer" referred to a particular subset of the Electorate are way off in the far past.

Herbert Anchovy

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #54 on April 06, 2021, 09:18:35 pm by Herbert Anchovy »
So is that why the Labour Party manifestos have seemed to promise the impossible in recent elections BST.
That is not intended to be bait by the way, just a reasonable question.

So why has no socialist Labour party won since 74?

Entire PhDs have been written on that topic. But the fact that Britain's mass circulation papers are by some way the most virulently right wing in the Western world. It was always going to be difficult for any left of centre party to get a fair hearing when the Mail, Sun and Express were for decades the primary information source of up to 10 million families.

True this.
Back in the 1980’s I was very active in the Labour Party. No matter how bad Thatcher was for the country, we lost election after election to a Tory government that seemed to be at war with chunks of British society.

I recall attending a conference fringe meeting where a Woman dared to suggest that the party should accept that the news media held great influence on voters and that maybe we should ‘play the game’ and work with the press rather than see them as the enemy. She was roundly booed by the party masses and she disappeared into obscurity. However, I like to think that she sowed a seed somewhere. Slowly, the party began to understand that if they wanted to win power they’d have to embrace the media, no matter how much it hurt. Very slowly with John Smith and then Tony Blair, they began to work with the media and press (albeit through gritted teeth) until they were beating the Tories at their own game to the point where even The Sun supported Labour.

Whether we like it or not, Labour need to win over the press, who’s natural inclination is right wing overall, before it will win another General Election. Right now there’s a Tory feel good factor due to the success of the vaccine. However, once that passes and we end up seeing who’ll be paying for the cost of Covid-19, that’ll be the time for Labour to take the initiative.




Herbert, i think it is fair to say that anyone with any sense will know that the taxpayer will bear the brunt of the costs for the covid bills.

But it depends whether ‘the brunt’ of those costs are fairly distributed Hound.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #55 on April 06, 2021, 09:30:14 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
It's actually indicative of a big economic blindspot to assume that the "costs" have to be paid back in any conventional sense. It's simply not possible to pay off £0.5-1trn of debt by raising taxes. It would mean putting income tax up by 5% for 50 years, just to pay off the capital.

No country does that. What you have to do is grow your way out of the debt, so the capital goes down as a proportion of your national income. And the only way to get the sort of growth rates we need is to have large, sustained Govt investment in the economy. Precisely the policies that were (wrongly) called "Marxist" at the last election.

I'll put a marker down now. Biden is proposing a stimulus package worth a massive 10% of US GDP over the next two years. Sunak is proposing that our equivalent will be only 4% of UK GDP over the next 4 years.

I'm happy to have a decent sized charity bet that US growth greatly exceeds ours for the next 3-4 years, and that despite borrowing more money for the stimulus, that growth will put them in a better position to deal with it.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #56 on April 06, 2021, 09:31:37 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
By the way. If Starmer is going to have a chance at the next election, he needs to go all in on saying Biden has it right and Sunak has it wrong. The facts will support that prediction from 2023 onwards.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #57 on April 06, 2021, 09:43:10 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Hound. For the record, that "blind spot" comment wasn't a personal dig. More a complaint about the very poor level of political/economic debate in this country. It's obsessed with fallacies about "balancing the books" that simply do not apply to huge national economies. But you'll hear that line trotted out over and over again by Sunak as we emerge from the COVID crisis.

SydneyRover

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #58 on April 06, 2021, 09:47:57 pm by SydneyRover »
There is really no other way to decribe what Biden has achieved but stunning and who knew? slow and steady throughout the election keeping it simple. Those working at a local level to overcome all the obstacles to get people into the polling booths was massive, and he looked all the while as though he was going to be another establishment figure, that picture has certainly changed.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Local Elections And Hartlepool
« Reply #59 on April 06, 2021, 09:55:54 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
It is so radical, what Biden is doing, that people are not really taking it on board.

What he is doing, is cleaning out 40 years of failed voodoo economics, and returning to what we always knew worked, but somehow contrived to forget.

With a bit of luck against unknown events, this could get America out of the nightmare it has been in, where average wages after inflation are the same now that they were 35 years ago, while the wages of the very richest have rocketed.

 

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