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Author Topic: The cost of Brexit  (Read 9851 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #90 on September 22, 2021, 10:34:53 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Do you accept that we have had a SERIOUS economic hit?



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SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #91 on September 22, 2021, 10:35:06 pm by SydneyRover »
They probably have genetic differences.
Would the strips they wear always be red and blue?
As for my political stance, I don’t have one.

Scenario ..................... a morning at the polling booth .......................... please can you help me





I have already told you,  I don’t go to the polling booths.
By the way, you seem to be constantly trolling my posts.

So who helps you fill out the ballot paper?

Bentley Bullet

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #92 on September 22, 2021, 10:39:00 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Do you accept that we have had a SERIOUS economic hit?

Have we had a serious economic hit?  Yes. Is it entirely down to Brexit? No.

drfchound

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #93 on September 22, 2021, 10:39:17 pm by drfchound »
They probably have genetic differences.
Would the strips they wear always be red and blue?
As for my political stance, I don’t have one.

Scenario ..................... a morning at the polling booth .......................... please can you help me





I have already told you,  I don’t go to the polling booths.
By the way, you seem to be constantly trolling my posts.

So who helps you fill out the ballot paper?




You are very strange SR.
Also, I’m not getting dragged into one of your weird ner ner ner type of arguments.
Find someone else to fall out with.

SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #94 on September 22, 2021, 10:41:25 pm by SydneyRover »
They probably have genetic differences.
Would the strips they wear always be red and blue?
As for my political stance, I don’t have one.

Scenario ..................... a morning at the polling booth .......................... please can you help me





I have already told you,  I don’t go to the polling booths.
By the way, you seem to be constantly trolling my posts.

So who helps you fill out the ballot paper?




You are very strange SR.
Also, I’m not getting dragged into one of your weird ner ner ner type of arguments.
Find someone else to fall out with.

It's a serious question hound, who helps you with your postal vote?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #95 on September 22, 2021, 10:47:54 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Do you accept that we have had a SERIOUS economic hit?

Have we had a serious economic hit?  Yes. Is it entirely down to Brexit? No.

Right. So in 2015 we had the highest GDP growth rate in the G7. In 2017 we had the lowest. Why do you think such a rapid drop in economic performance relative to our nearest equivalents happened?

Bentley Bullet

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #96 on September 22, 2021, 10:53:13 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Watch my lips.
THERE WAS NO INSTANT RECESSION.
THERE WAS NO PUNISHMENT BUDGETS.
THERE WERE NO PENSION REDUCTIONS.


SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #97 on September 22, 2021, 10:58:48 pm by SydneyRover »
it's not over by any means yet

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #98 on September 22, 2021, 11:12:59 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Watch my lips.
THERE WAS NO INSTANT RECESSION.
THERE WAS NO PUNISHMENT BUDGETS.
THERE WERE NO PENSION REDUCTIONS.



Just impossible.

SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #99 on September 22, 2021, 11:28:34 pm by SydneyRover »
Watch my lips.
THERE WAS NO INSTANT RECESSION.
THERE WAS NO PUNISHMENT BUDGETS.
THERE WERE NO PENSION REDUCTIONS.

I sometimes think Britain gets the government it deserves if this is the level of debate and others struggle with ballot papers.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #100 on September 23, 2021, 12:25:28 am by BillyStubbsTears »
The Treasury predictions of the economic consequences of a Leave vote indicated the scale of the damage that we could expect. The actual specific outcomes depend on many other factors. The Treasury was showing what would happen in the absence of other factors which can mitigate the immediate pain but at long term costs. In principle they were bang on.

We lost something between £100-200bn in economic output in the three years after the vote. That's the scale of hit you get from a recession. We didn't have an actual recession primarily because we were helped by a global boom. But relative to the rest of the G7, we went backwards very quickly. That's what happens if one country has a recession while others go along as normal.

The economic hit was also mitigated by the Bank of England dropping interest rates. But that comes with a big cost. Inflation spiked and we had nearly three years of wages dropping in real terms.

We didn't have immediate swingeing Budget costs. Instead we spread them out over the next five-ten years. Punishment extended.

We didn't cut pensions. No-one said we WOULD. Rather it was shown as a possible consequence of the hole in Govt finances that the Leave vote was predicted to produce (and DID produce). Instead we cut working benefits, support for local authorities and capital investment from the levels that had been planned. Political decisions to focus the pain elsewhere.

The damage was predicted. It happened. Calling that a lie on a par with those deliberately propagated by the Leave side in order to wreck any chance of rational debate (as openly bragged about by Cummings) is what happens when you are obsessed by bothsidesism.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #101 on September 23, 2021, 07:49:20 am by Bentley Bullet »
So you keep saying! But, getting back to the point, what I can't understand for the life of me is why the £350m NHS bus slogan is claimed to be such a clincher in the outcome of the result. After all, all the racist, selfish, thick, inconsiderate, what's mine's mine leave voters wouldn't really give a shit about the NHS, would they?

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #102 on September 23, 2021, 08:52:57 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
On the flip side, I don't see mass unemployment, mass lack of investment or significant corporate failure either.  Has it been about as I expected? Probably better given covid and the opportunities of brexit still remain as do some risks but it's not the big disaster many of you expected/wanted in some cases.

It still remains that if we don't like the outcome of brexit that's not the fault of brexit but the government in place.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #103 on September 23, 2021, 09:04:47 am by BillyStubbsTears »
So you keep saying! But, getting back to the point, what I can't understand for the life of me is why the £350m NHS bus slogan is claimed to be such a clincher in the outcome of the result. After all, all the racist, selfish, thick, inconsiderate, what's mine's mine leave voters wouldn't really give a shit about the NHS, would they?

Yep. Should have trusted my first instinct. BB once again not interested in actually discussing. Just wanting another argument.

Best of luck.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #104 on September 23, 2021, 09:09:52 am by BillyStubbsTears »
On the flip side, I don't see mass unemployment, mass lack of investment or significant corporate failure either.  Has it been about as I expected? Probably better given covid and the opportunities of brexit still remain as do some risks but it's not the big disaster many of you expected/wanted in some cases.

It still remains that if we don't like the outcome of brexit that's not the fault of brexit but the government in place.

On business investment.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F1de15054-0476-11ea-a984-fbbacad9e7dd?source=google-amp&fit=scale-down&width=500

Bentley Bullet

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #105 on September 23, 2021, 09:12:10 am by Bentley Bullet »
So you keep saying! But, getting back to the point, what I can't understand for the life of me is why the £350m NHS bus slogan is claimed to be such a clincher in the outcome of the result. After all, all the racist, selfish, thick, inconsiderate, what's mine's mine leave voters wouldn't really give a shit about the NHS, would they?

Yep. Should have trusted my first instinct. BB once again not interested in actually discussing. Just wanting another argument.

Best of luck.
I think I'll start deploying your "grown-up" politics policy as a way to ignore answering questions in future. It is effective in the eyes of the blind, I'll give you that.

selby

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #106 on September 23, 2021, 09:51:18 am by selby »
  If people voted to be better off economically in the short term there is a discussion to be had, if people went into the booth to determine self government and independence there is no argument and discussion to be had.

SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #107 on September 23, 2021, 12:05:29 pm by SydneyRover »
  If people voted to be better off economically in the short term there is a discussion to be had, if people went into the booth to determine self government and independence there is no argument and discussion to be had.

I didn't realise there was choices selby.

belton rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #108 on September 23, 2021, 02:46:20 pm by belton rover »
  If people voted to be better off economically in the short term there is a discussion to be had, if people went into the booth to determine self government and independence there is no argument and discussion to be had.

I didn't realise there was choices selby.
  If people voted to be better off economically in the short term there is a discussion to be had, if people went into the booth to determine self government and independence there is no argument and discussion to be had.

I didn't realise there was choices selby.
You can have sausage and chippings, sausage and beans, or beans and chippings.
That’s choices!

Herbert Anchovy

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #109 on September 23, 2021, 02:51:43 pm by Herbert Anchovy »
I caught something on the wireless earlier this week that said the UK was expected to have the fasted GDP growth across the G7 countries this year. So maybe some recovery is in sight?

Bentley Bullet

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #110 on September 23, 2021, 03:11:01 pm by Bentley Bullet »
I caught something on the wireless earlier this week that said the UK was expected to have the fasted GDP growth across the G7 countries this year. So maybe some recovery is in sight?

Our resident genius will put you right about that.

selby

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #111 on September 23, 2021, 04:33:35 pm by selby »
  Oh yes there was Syd, if you believe in freedom and independence there was only one way to vote, and that was to get out before things got far worse and the EU becomes what some always wanted and it will become  a federal state.
  And politicians like Starmer and his entourage going back and forwards colluding openly with their mates in Europe were the nail in the coffin of a remain vote for many.
 Their actions were the opposite to the lies they were spinning, and were seen through by the electorate.
  You gobbled the lies and many more like you, that's why you lost. 

wilts rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #112 on September 23, 2021, 05:39:17 pm by wilts rover »
I caught something on the wireless earlier this week that said the UK was expected to have the fasted GDP growth across the G7 countries this year. So maybe some recovery is in sight?

That will be the OECD forecast Herbert, they said it will be slightly less than predicted last quarter (tho I guess the latest energy issues and the opening of more travel routes might affect it again).

The UK will have the largest growth - because it had the largest fall. The countries which took a smaller hit will have lower growth. All fairly standard and mentioned on here several times previously.

This explains it:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #113 on September 23, 2021, 06:00:11 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I caught something on the wireless earlier this week that said the UK was expected to have the fasted GDP growth across the G7 countries this year. So maybe some recovery is in sight?

We had the biggest drop in GDP of any of the G7 countries in 2020, because our lockdowns were longer and harder than any other country. There's a natural bounce back when lockdowns are finally lifted and the economy starts to fire up again. if all economies bounced back to 2019 levels of output this year, by definition we would have the highest growth rate this year. Because we were starting from the biggest dip.

None of that really has anything to do with Brexit. If you want to see the effect of that, you need to see beyond the transient effect of COVID. The OBR is predicting that our long term GDP growth rate from about 2023 will be around 1.6-1.8%. Compared with the consistent growth rate that we had between 1950 and the start of Austerity and also in the couple of years before the Brexit vote) of about 2.3-2.5%. So the expectation is that, into the foreseeable future, the economy will grow 0.5-0.9% less than it used to do. Doesn't sound like much of a difference, but it compounds over time. If that goes on for 20 years it'd mean that every single year we would be producing about £400bn less in economic output than we would have been if we'd kept to the long-established trend.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #114 on September 23, 2021, 06:04:49 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
  Oh yes there was Syd, if you believe in freedom and independence there was only one way to vote, and that was to get out before things got far worse and the EU becomes what some always wanted and it will become  a federal state.
  And politicians like Starmer and his entourage going back and forwards colluding openly with their mates in Europe were the nail in the coffin of a remain vote for many.
 Their actions were the opposite to the lies they were spinning, and were seen through by the electorate.
  You gobbled the lies and many more like you, that's why you lost. 

And yet. Five years after we voted to leave, there is still no sign of the EU being any closer to becoming a federal state. We f**ked up our economic future to protect ourselves from a hypothetical demon from the future that has still never shown up.

wilts rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #115 on September 23, 2021, 06:17:49 pm by wilts rover »
I caught something on the wireless earlier this week that said the UK was expected to have the fasted GDP growth across the G7 countries this year. So maybe some recovery is in sight?

That will be the OECD forecast Herbert, they said it will be slightly less than predicted last quarter (tho I guess the latest energy issues and the opening of more travel routes might affect it again).

The UK will have the largest growth - because it had the largest fall. The countries which took a smaller hit will have lower growth. All fairly standard and mentioned on here several times previously.

This explains it:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

Although of course several keen 'Brexiteers' and advocates of Johnson's Hard Brexit deal did say they wanted a smaller economy after Brexit - so I am sure they will be along soon to tell us why this growth is a bad thing. I shall leave it to them.

no eyed deer

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #116 on September 23, 2021, 06:55:13 pm by no eyed deer »
Wilts - you are all in favour of locking down at every opportunity, but didn't expect any repercussions?


SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #117 on September 23, 2021, 08:51:06 pm by SydneyRover »
I caught something on the wireless earlier this week that said the UK was expected to have the fasted GDP growth across the G7 countries this year. So maybe some recovery is in sight?

Our resident genius will put you right about that.

hound has the monk on

hstripes

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #118 on September 23, 2021, 09:36:45 pm by hstripes »

So a fair analysis shouldn't compare our actual GDP growth to Germany's over that period. It should compare the CHANGE in our GDP growth to the change in comparable countries. Ours went down by about 0.75%. All the other G7 countries (whether doing well or poorly in 2015) went up by 1% or so. And that lasted until 2019. So from straight after the Brexit vote, our economy suddenly started performing 1.5-2% worse than expected. And that continued for 3 years. That means that by 2019 our GDP was about 5% lower than we might reasonably expected if we'd have experienced the miniboom that the rest of the G7 had. That's about £100bn in 2019. And that comes on top of losing about £60bn in 2018 and £30bn in 2017. £190bn in total. Eye watering amounts.


Firstly thank you for a refreshingly detailed, well-reasoned and intelligent response. I'm just glad no-one found any fault in my basic Maths!

On your first point I was setting off to find out how much smaller the economy was due to Brexit (at 1/1/20 before the pandemic made any analysis impossible) but you are correct the cumulative of my workings give an estimated overall cost of Brexit to that point, which is more relevant to the thread.

Your second point is a valid one - basically the UK was outperforming comparable countries before Brexit and to be more accurate that should be taken into account - therefore I accept the overall estimate of a £92bn cost implicit in my calculation is an underestimate.

However I'm unconvinced with some of the assumptions behind your 1.5-2% pa loss in growth and think your £190bn estimate appears bullish.

Growth rates   UK   Germany   France   Italy   Implied UK
2015              2.4      1.5              1.1   0.8   
2016              1.7      2.2              1.1   1.3   
2017              1.7      2.6              2.2   1.7   3.4
2018              1.3      1.6              1.9   0.9   3
2019              1.4      0.6              1.5   0.3   3.1
Avg 2017-9      1.5      1.8              1.7   1.1   

1) You're assuming the 1% economic boost we'd have enjoyed in 2017 would continue in 18/19. In spite of the fact (above) this didn't happen in comparative countries.
2) You're assuming we would have enjoyed a 1% boost in 2017 even though our economy is very different to Germany/France/Italy in terms of lower % export of manufactured goods which led much of the mini-boom in 2017 in those countries. (US growth fell from 2.7 to 2.3 between 2015 and 2017)
3) You're assuming the 0.7% fall due to Brexit would have persisted at the same level in 18/19. Brexit caused an immediate economic shock, like you say due to a sudden stop in investment, the reverberations of such a shock would be expected to lessen in time on annual growth. Evidenced from our growth rate not dropping as rapidly as comparable countries in 18/19.

If we had enjoyed economic growth 1.7% higher in 2017-9 in each year we would have had the highest growth rates in the G7, significantly higher growth rates esp by 2019 than our biggest European partners and 3 years running of the highest UK growth rates since 2003 and the 2008 recession. This appears unrealistic.

Looking at average growth rates between 2017 and 2019 we are not very far behind Germany and France despite Brexit - only 0.2-0.3% per year.

Therefore a loss of economic growth of between 1.2 and 1.5% pa due to Brexit assuming the UK would have continued to enjoy such a large economic advantage over comparable countries from 2015 right into 2019. This assumption though seems unlikely to me so I would suggest something even lower than this.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2021, 11:03:41 pm by hstripes »

Not Now Kato

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #119 on September 25, 2021, 01:03:17 pm by Not Now Kato »
BST. I've just had a thought. Are you that 'Insulate Britain' motorway Eco-warrior bloke who was on GMTV today? It's just that you share the same annoying condescending attitude that makes me think there can't be two people in the world as patronising as that.

Right back to the main topic. Why do you ignore my point? What I said was I can't understand for the life of me why the £350m NHS bus slogan is claimed to be such a clincher in the outcome of the result, when the blatant scaremongering employed by the Remainers was, in my opinion, far more influential in making people decide to vote remain.

Yeah? No?

Blatant scaremongering you say....
 
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/statement_by_michael_gove_boris_johnson_and_gisela_stuart_for_the_sun_vote_leave_to_cut_vat_on_fuel.html?fbclid=IwAR2-RFT2ngaPmUelSuzU43ULtdTNnR8FUiuZjv5a_w9W-5nxeiRCRTOkRDA

 

 

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