Away draws

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just incredible this run.

11 consecutive away draws, 14 of the past 16 and 15 of the past 18.

Odds against runs as bad as those are I think:
2047/1
477/1 and
264/1.

[DRCraig]

No need to moan. We will paste them !

[Campsall rover]

Just incredible this run.

11 consecutive away draws, 14 of the past 16 and 15 of the past 18.

Odds against runs as bad as those are I think:
2047/1
477/1 and
264/1.

What is the record i wonder of consecutive games being drawn away or at home?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm thinking very simply on this. I suspect Dutch Uncle would be able to do a better job.

But simplistically, if there's roughly a 1 in 2000 chance of getting drawn away 11 times in a row, I think you'd expect to get a run like this from some side every 20,000 ties.  There's roughly 100 sides in the league, so I guess that each side would play 200 ties before you'd expect a run like this to occur for some side or other. Say on average, each side in the league plays 4 cup ties a season. That would suggest you'd expect some club to have a run like this once in 50 years.

Like I say, I'm hazy on the maths here.  Maybe every new tie starts a new series of 11 games, in which case there would be 11 times as many opportunities to get a run like this and it would happen to some club every 4-5 years or so.

Even if that latter figure is right, you'd only expect it to happen to YOUR club every 4-500 years.

[Colemans Left Hook]

Last season i predicted eleven consecutive  Rovers  matches correct as BB  will verify

Inspired by dutch uncle i decided to work out the odds of that.


The fa cup draws  are a binary option
But the match forecasting are a tertiary option
Yes some matches were easier to predict
But in simple maths the probability of that was 3 to the power eleven

Which is 177,147 to one


This season i cant even get one in row


Dutch uncle inspired me to