Brexit Dividend

[drfchound]

Meanwhile:   

Sir Keir Starmer has sparked outrage by saying the UK can take advantage of the “opportunities” of Brexit during a visit to the north east of England.

The Labour leader faced backlash after he used similarly positive language as senior Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg, the new minister for Brexit opportunities.

Sir Keir also definitively ruled out the idea his party could campaign for Britain to re-join the EU in future – insisting that he wants to “make Brexit work”.

The SNP pounced on Sir Keir’s comments and claimed that they amounted to Labour “joining the Tories on Brexit”.

The SNP party’ Westminster leader Ian Blackford said: “In a shoddy attempt to win back votes in England, Starmer’s Labour party has completely abandoned Scotland.

From the Independent.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Is he wrong to say we've got to try and make the best of the shambles we've been left with?

[scawsby steve]

Oh dear, it looks like that pact with the EU loving Lib Dems and Greens that some on here were suggesting for Starmer to pursue, might be dead in the water now.

[drfchound]

Is he wrong to say we've got to try and make the best of the shambles we've been left with?

No it isn’t but it doesn’t appear to be a popular decision among some of his supporters.

[i_ateallthepies]

So you've found one decision that you suppose might be unpopular to some of his supporters.  How many has Johnson made that were unpopular with his supporters?  Haven't seen you flag up any of those.

[drfchound]

You might not have looked hard enough then pies.
Also, has Starmer only made one unpopular decision?
Hardly.
However, To answer your question, yes I agree that Johnson has made plenty of decision# that are unpopular with his people.

[selby]

  Stabber living up to his reputation, just think what all the other Bozo's on the train over to Brussels think of their mate now, oh the memories of standing on the platform at Waterloo going over to knife the governments attempt to get an agreement, dishing it out with the blurb of how we are better off having another referendum.
  That guy would stab his granny to get on, I wouldn't send him to the shop with a list and trust him, a complete S**T house he would cuddle up to an alligator to pull the wool over the labour supporters eyes.
   At least with Corbyn people knew he was a nut job, this P*****k has more edges than a diamond.

[BillyStubbsTears]

As I say. 10 years of Mike Graham and you're incapable of writing coherent sentences. It's clinically proven. Just say "No!" kids.

[selby]

  No defence there Billy, the old chestnut you turn to dish the other poster, He is just after your vote in the north Billy and he and his buddies will then leave you high and dry and concentrate on his south east.
  Keep your pecker up buddy at least you are entertaining if you take no notice of what you say. Where would we be without your and Syds reams of nonsense, at least it gives the disciples some thing to hang on to.

[BillyStubbsTears]

QED.

Don't do it kids!

[selby]

  Stop calling your disciples up.

[Branton Red]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55997641.amp

Understatement of the Decade..
"I actually think it was not thought out."

"Peter Cowgill, chairman of JD Sports, said the red tape and delays in shipping goods to mainland Europe meant "double-digit millions" in extra costs."

Sounds awful doesn't it this? When reported wholly without context.

Firstly never trust unverifiable data from people with a political bias peddling a political agenda especially where they are provably exaggerating in other data they put forward (see * below).

Let's cautiously take Mr Cowgill at his word and say the cost will be £10m pa. Yet JD is a massive company which incurred £6bn in costs in 20/21 files.jdplc.com/pdf/reports/annual-report-2021.pdf.

This additional £10m expense is only increasing JD's costs by a measly 0.17%.

An event arising such a relatively small cost increase would normally barely merit a passing reference in an Annual Report. Yet here this is being reported by the BBC!

Furthermore being deliberately reported without context to give a false picture to the unthinking, gullible and those suffering from Confirmation Bias.

What this story actually clearly shows is how relatively small these extra border admin costs are to exporters and therefore even more to the UK economy as a whole.

As for opening a warehouse in Europe due to a 0.17% increase in their cost base. If I were his FD I'd laugh him out of the room at the suggestion. Pure bluster made for a political purpose.

* The 1,000 UK jobs lost is clearly a deliberate exaggeration. JD currently employ just under 2,000 at it's Rochdale warehouse servicing £6.2bn revenue. So why would they need over half that number to service their £1.6bn revenue in the EU?

I note JD doesn't pay the living wage. The average Full Time Equivalent annual salary of it's staff is only £18,143. At least 75% of it's 54,385 employees are paid below the UK living wage. Meanwhile Mr Cowgill earned £4.3m last year.

To put Mr Cowgill's £10m (0.17%) Brexit cost into further context it would cost JD approximately £45m per year extra (0.75% addition to it's cost base) to put their staff on the living wage.

Billy - you bizarrely implied I was right wing for saying postal voting is more open to fraud than voting at polling stations. Yet here you are quoting from the most awful example of a greedy, immoral, extreme capitalist. Whilst endorsing his opinion that a 0.17% increase in his company's cost base is more important than restoring democratic rights to ordinary, working people - the sort he has no compunction taking advantage of for his own gain.

Glynn - were you telling everyone that Brexit would increase exporters costs by 0.17%? Or does the article when placed against actual facts expose your position as what it really is - unthinking hyperbolic nonsense?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glynn - were you telling everyone that Brexit would increase exporters costs by 0.17%? Or does the article when placed against actual facts expose your position as what it really is - unthinking hyperbolic nonsense?

No, because it doesn't. Firstly because your 'working out' is based on assuming that all of JD costs were related to import consignments, which is a completely fallacious argument. Secondly it is even more fallacious when you have absolutely no idea how many of their import consignments come from the EU (which are the only ones the new costs apply to), which I would assume would be very much the minority of their imports as most textile manufacture suppliers are from non-EU countries. And you have the nerve to accuse someone else of not being in context?? You can take your ridiculous not-in-context 0.17% and shove it back where it came from.

As for my position being unthinking and hyperbolic, well, my position is based upon being an International Trade Officer with Customs & Excise/HMRC for twenty years, auditing importers' and exporters' Custom Declarations so knowing the costs and procedures involved inside out. Which is how I know where textile retailers import from for a start. I also know where the new costs importers and exporters will now have to pay have come from and what they are. Can you say the same?

[BillyStubbsTears]

 Branton

The full hit of Brexit regulations only started last month. Those costs are, I assume, what they have racked up already.

As for them being mean, nasty capitalists, that is neither here nor there. The trade costs wouldn't vanish if they were nice socialists.

[Branton Red]

Glyn £10m is only 0.17% of JD's total annual costs of £6bn (all its costs - cost of goods, employment,  etc etc)

That's a fact.

Do you think they'll change their company policies based on this tiny cost increase?

Really?!

[Branton Red]

Branton

The full hit of Brexit regulations only started last month. Those costs are, I assume, what they have racked up already.

As for them being mean, nasty capitalists, that is neither here nor there. The trade costs wouldn't vanish if they were nice socialists.

No he'll be talking the annual cost.

And your lovely Mr Cowgill only gave his interview last week. Ample time for him to assess (and given his form exaggerate) his numbers based on the new regulations.

Do you think it likely these costs will increase beyond 0.17% (or a similarly low %) of their cost base to something that may actually be significant and lead to a change in company practices then? Why?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn £10m is only 0.17% of JD's total annual costs of £6bn (all its costs - cost of goods, employment,  etc etc)

That's a fact.

Do you think they'll change their company policies based on this tiny cost increase?

Really?!

Do you really think that 0.17% applies to every importer and exporter? Because that is what I have always talked about, not one company. Because if you are, then you're making the assumption that the new costs are ad valorem.

[Branton Red]

Glynn - no of course not.

But it was in response to the numbers for this particular company that you said 'I was telling anyone who would listen what would happen even before the referendum took place. It's not a surprise to anyone who understands it.'

Having clearly read the article without considering putting those numbers into context. Clearly showing in this case a lack of understanding - sorry.

Even if an exporter suffers relative costs twice or three times this amount - it's really not going make a significant difference to how they operate is it? 0.17% of total costs is tiny.

[SydneyRover]

  Stop calling your disciples up.

This from your own people

''Why the panic among Boris Johnson’s allies? Because they know Brexit is unravelling''
Michael Heseltine

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/16/panic-boris-johnson-allies-brexit-unravelling-michael-heseltine

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glynn - no of course not.

But it was in response to the numbers for this particular company that you said 'I was telling anyone who would listen what would happen even before the referendum took place. It's not a surprise to anyone who understands it.'

Having clearly read the article without considering putting those numbers into context. Clearly showing in this case a lack of understanding - sorry.

Even if an exporter suffers relative costs twice or three times this amount - it's really not going make a significant difference to how they operate is it? 0.17% of total costs is tiny.

I was speaking about the costs increasing for every importer and exporter to the EU, not just JD.

By the way, do you think that £10 million extra cost will just be absorbed by JD or that it'll get added on to the costing sheets for the imported goods?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton

The full hit of Brexit regulations only started last month. Those costs are, I assume, what they have racked up already.

As for them being mean, nasty capitalists, that is neither here nor there. The trade costs wouldn't vanish if they were nice socialists.

No he'll be talking the annual cost.

And your lovely Mr Cowgill only gave his interview last week. Ample time for him to assess (and given his form exaggerate) his numbers based on the new regulations.

Do you think it likely these costs will increase beyond 0.17% (or a similarly low %) of their cost base to something that may actually be significant and lead to a change in company practices then? Why?

Where's your evidence that he's talking about annual costs? No-one knows if the costs will reduce as initial frictions reduce. It makes far more logical sense to assume he's talking about costs already rung up.

[scawsby steve]

  Stop calling your disciples up.

This from your own people

''Why the panic among Boris Johnson’s allies? Because they know Brexit is unravelling''
Michael Heseltine

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/16/panic-boris-johnson-allies-brexit-unravelling-michael-heseltine

Selby's own people? Heseltine was the biggest Europhile in the HOC for donkey's years.

Nobody in the Tory Party listens to him.

[Branton Red]

Glynn - No you were responding to the article - quite obviously you were. Just admit you were wrong.

"A man with a conviction is a hard man to change.
Tell him you disagree and he turns away.
Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources.
Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point."

In answer to your question: -

"Peter Cowgill, chairman of JD Sports, said the red tape and delays in shipping goods to mainland Europe meant "double-digit millions" in extra costs."

He's clearly talking here of extra costs to JD.

[Glyn_Wigley]

No you were responding to the article - quite obviously you were. Just admit you were wrong.

"A man with a conviction is a hard man to change.
Tell him you disagree and he turns away.
Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources.
Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point."

In answer to your question: -

"Peter Cowgill, chairman of JD Sports, said the red tape and delays in shipping goods to mainland Europe meant "double-digit millions" in extra costs."

He's clearly talking here of extra costs to JD.

And he was confirming the same extra costs that everybody else is facing. Which is what I have said all along.

Oh, and the question I was asking is where the money to pay those millions is going to come from? I presume it's going to be passed onto their customers because the costing sheets will now have extra expenditure on them.

[SydneyRover]

  Stop calling your disciples up.

This from your own people

''Why the panic among Boris Johnson’s allies? Because they know Brexit is unravelling''
Michael Heseltine

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/16/panic-boris-johnson-allies-brexit-unravelling-michael-heseltine

Selby's own people? Heseltine has been the biggest Europhile in the HOC for donkey's years.

Nobody in the Tory Party listens to him.

he's a tory SS, people listened to johnson, non tories listened to johnson, go figure

[Branton Red]

No you were responding to the article - quite obviously you were. Just admit you were wrong.

"A man with a conviction is a hard man to change.
Tell him you disagree and he turns away.
Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources.
Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point."

In answer to your question: -

"Peter Cowgill, chairman of JD Sports, said the red tape and delays in shipping goods to mainland Europe meant "double-digit millions" in extra costs."

He's clearly talking here of extra costs to JD.

And he was confirming the same extra costs that everybody else is facing. Which is what I have said all along.

And as I've shown for JD these costs are relative to the size of the company miniscule. Not everyone will be effected the same granted but if we use JD as a yardstick (this remember based on the quite likely exaggerated numbers provided by someone with a political axe to grind) then it is difficult to see how these costs will be of much significance to any company, therefore they are unlikely to impact company policy and behaviour, and even more unlikely to impact the UK economy in any meaningful way.

That's what can be inferred from the BBC article from sensible analysis of the facts. Even though it was seemingly written to convey the exact opposite of that.

[scawsby steve]

  Stop calling your disciples up.

This from your own people

''Why the panic among Boris Johnson’s allies? Because they know Brexit is unravelling''
Michael Heseltine

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/16/panic-boris-johnson-allies-brexit-unravelling-michael-heseltine

Selby's own people? Heseltine has been the biggest Europhile in the HOC for donkey's years.

Nobody in the Tory Party listens to him.

he's a tory SS, people listened to johnson, non tories listened to johnson, go figure

I have figured. The Tory Party are mainly anti-EU. They don't care what Heseltine says.

As regards non-Tories, they voted for Johnson because he promised to get Brexit done. No other reason.

[SydneyRover]

Did you read the article Steve? it confirms what remainers have said all along, no one from the exit side has yet said or said and proven any benefit yet, Branton atm is arguing that the cost is small but only last week pud said anyone the thinks brexit will add to inflation is an idiot, is all a bit magic mushrooms brexit benefits aye Steve.

[Branton Red]

Where's your evidence that he's talking about annual costs? No-one knows if the costs will reduce as initial frictions reduce. It makes far more logical sense to assume he's talking about costs already rung up.

From many years sitting in Board meetings - these people talk in annual numbers. He does say "I don't see that regulatory paperwork easing much in the short term" in answer to your 2nd sentence - like you I don't agree he could be so certain. Again though he's saying this for political effect i.e. can't see this improving.

You maybe right. Regardless it is a tiny fraction of JDs overall annual costs. I'm really struggling to see what the fuss is about here.

[scawsby steve]

Did you read the article Steve? it confirms what remainers have said all along, no one from the exit side has yet said or said and proven any benefit yet, Branton atm is arguing that the cost is small but only last week pud said anyone the thinks brexit will add to inflation is an idiot, is all a bit magic mushrooms brexit benefits aye Steve.

Nothing whatsoever to do with what I said about Heseltine.