Brexit Dividend

[SydneyRover]

It's funny how brexit benefits are getting harder to define, less and less and further and further away.

A bit like the huge end of the world cliff edge the remain camp provoked.  Both angles clearly worked the extremes, that's how campaigning is.  The middle ground is often the truth.

I just do not like using specific examples to promote a view without concrete proof of the linkages.  In truth we all know there's pros and cons to brexit there always was and each person had to weigh up that balance and how it matters to them.

Are you replying to my comment pud, it's hard to tell.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Yes it's fairly obvious.

[SydneyRover]

I suppose you have to read my reply to NR in conjunction with his comment.

[selby]

  Nine out of ten financial institutions in the city of London have stated they are about to increase the number of employees in the city because of increased business since Brexit and the opportunities it has brought about.

[SydneyRover]

  Nine out of ten financial institutions in the city of London have stated they are about to increase the number of employees in the city because of increased business since Brexit and the opportunities it has brought about.

If you post the article I'm sure there will be replies selby.

[Not Now Kato]

  Nine out of ten financial institutions in the city of London have stated they are about to increase the number of employees in the city because of increased business since Brexit and the opportunities it has brought about.

If you post the article I'm sure there will be replies selby.

He never posts sources Syd, he just make statements and his 'followers' lap it up - just as they do when the liar Johnson speaks.

[normal rules]

Find someone who works for one of the big four accountancy companies such as PWC, KPMG, Ernst Young or Deloitte. Ask them how UK business has been since brexit. You may be surprised.  Dig deeper yourself and you will find some very positive projections for the uk economy compared to some of our neighbours.

Long term forecasts by Pwc suggest by 2050, EU27 share of world gdp could fall below 10%. France to be out of the top ten and Italy to be out of the top 20. India to overtake the US as the worlds second largest economy. And importantly theUK to be the fastest growing G7 economy up to 2050 with an average growth of 1.9%.
By 2050, Indonesia is predicted to become the worlds fourth biggest economy, overtaking not just Germany and Japan but also Brazil and Russia. Germany and uk will remain in the top ten.
When you consider this in the context of Brexit and see long term that these emerging economies are ones we can, and will be doing business with, it’s not hard to see where brexit benefits will appear from.

Companies such as PWC have the ear of Government. They have a long term view which is critical for future planning in areas such as pensions, healthcare, energy and climate change, housing, transport and other infrastructure investment . Short term economic and political cycles, as are discussed on here, are often unreliable markers for future prosperity and growth.

[drfchound]

NR, when Syd gets up he really should be on here asking you to post an article to back all that up.
That’s what happens.

[selby]

  I think you have been reading the same things as me NR while the dunderheads are left in LA LA Land.

[Branton Red]

It's funny how brexit benefits are getting harder to define, less and less and further and further away.

It's funny how, unlike what was warned, the short term Brexit costs have been hard to notice yet according to some the overall cost will still be eye-watering but just further and further away.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They haven't been hard to notice. It's just that some people are choosing not to notice them.

There's already been something like £150bn loss of output, a collapse in overseas investment, 2 years of real terms wage falls and an extension of the timescale of the Govt balancing its books because of reduced tax take.

Ignoring all that is like meh-ing when folk point out that bit of snow starting to slide at the top of the mountain towering above you.

[SydneyRover]

''In September 2021, UK goods trade was 11.2 per cent, or £8.5 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.

For many months the CER’s cost of Brexit model model has found that UK goods trade is between 11 and 16 per cent lower as a result of leaving the single market and customs union. Using the data for September 2021, the model puts the cost at 11.2 per cent.

Last month, the UK’s fiscal watchdog, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), asked me to update my cost of Brexit model with the August 2021 data for October’s ‘Economic and Fiscal Outlook’. The reduction in the UK’s total goods trade – imports plus exports with the EU and the rest of the world – was 15.8 per cent, compared to a modelled ‘doppelgänger UK’ that did not leave the single market and customs union in January''

https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-september-2021

''The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. We regard European integration as largely beneficial but recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. The CER aims to promote an open, outward-looking and effective European Union''

https://www.cer.eu/about

[Branton Red]

Read my earlier post Billy. Brexit has cost only £10 per person per week. I've shown where this figure comes from and how it tallies with OBR analysis - do you dispute it?

It's not a case of people choosing not to notice - it is simply not a big enough impact for most people to notice.

No sensible extrapolation of economic performance into the future (even with the OBRs highly dubious 4% GDP fall) could in anyway shape or form be compared to an avalanche.

I don't dispute there has been some economic hit but listen to Osborne here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564. Views backed up by the majority of our politicians who stood on the same remain platform as him.

Is it any wonder after the vote that the £ fell, business' held off on investments and wage rises, and the stock exchange fell. The majority of the economic hit has been due to misplaced sentiment off the back of political lies and nothing to do with the fundamentals of Brexit itself.

[SydneyRover]

Read my earlier post Billy. Brexit has cost only £10 per person per week. I've shown where this figure comes from and how it tallies with OBR analysis - do you dispute it?

It's not a case of people choosing not to notice - it is simply not a big enough impact for most people to notice.

No sensible extrapolation of economic performance into the future (even with the OBRs highly dubious 4% GDP fall) could in anyway shape or form be compared to an avalanche.

I don't dispute there has been some economic hit but listen to Osborne here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564. Views backed up by the majority of our politicians who stood on the same remain platform as him.

Is it any wonder after the vote that the £ fell, business' held off on investments and wage rises, and the stock exchange fell. The majority of the economic hit has been due to misplaced sentiment off the back of political lies and nothing to do with the fundamentals of Brexit itself.

£68,000,0000 x 10 so only 680,000,000 per week, what a bargain, I wonder how many hospital etc ........

[SydneyRover]

I wonder how many people would have 'bought' brexit if that had been on the side of a bus

Get brexit now only £68,000,000 per week

vote tory

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

I disagree with your £10 per person per week figure, for reasons which I've explained at length here previously, but I'll accept that. Add it up over 68 million people and the thick end of 5 years.

As for your "fundamentals of Brexit" feel free to find me any reputable economist who argues that making it significantly harder to do business with a vast and wealthy market on your doorstep does anything but seriously reduce your economic activity. I'm not talking about politicians or journalists with an angle to push. I'm taking about people who spend their careers analysing these things and who have a track record of getting calls right.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile. This.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://mobile.twitter.com/fcdogovuk/status/1486338073864585224&ved=2ahUKEwiGuNWd6tL1AhVJilwKHS_4DIAQo7QBegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw0A3HcpwGJuRAio2vJAildo

From the Govt who negotiated and signed the NI Protocol, lauded it as a brilliant achievement against the odds, then lied repeatedly in the last election campaign about what it implied.

[SydneyRover]

This is the best campaign advert for voting tory

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/nov/08/there-will-not-be-checks-on-goods-from-northern-ireland-to-great-britain-boris-johnson-says-video

[Branton Red]

Branton.

I disagree with your £10 per person per week figure, for reasons which I've explained at length here previously, but I'll accept that. Add it up over 68 million people and the thick end of 5 years.

As for your "fundamentals of Brexit" feel free to find me any reputable economist who argues that making it significantly harder to do business with a vast and wealthy market on your doorstep does anything but seriously reduce your economic activity. I'm not talking about politicians or journalists with an angle to push. I'm taking about people who spend their careers analysing these things and who have a track record of getting calls right.

Billy

I'll be fair my £10 per person per week is up to the end of 2019 so 3.5 years not 5 as it's impossible to sensibly assess the impact of Brexit since Covid began - Covid being so overwhelming on economic performance and overwhelming over many Brexit impacts (how can you assess how Brexit has impacted on e.g. car imports/exports when people were banned from visiting car dealerships and Covid has massively hit supply of parts).

I'm not disputing one of the 'fundamentals of Brexit' is that it has made it somewhat harder to do business with the EU and that has/will have some economic hit. Although our different use of language clearly shows we disagree on how big that hit has/will be.

What I'm saying is a) the majority of individuals will not have noticed a hit on their personal finances as at a personal level for most it'll be too small plus it's an opportunity cost (if it's not £10 per person per week it can't be that much higher) and b) the OTT predictions and dire warnings during the referendum campaign must have hit market and business confidence more than necessary so producing an economic hit.

[SydneyRover]

''The doppelgänger is a subset of countries selected from a larger group of 22 advanced economies by an algorithm. That algorithm finds the countries that, when combined, create a doppelgänger UK that has the smallest possible deviation from the real UK data until December 2019, before the pandemic struck. (The data includes goods trade, GDP growth, population, inflation, industrial production as a share of output, as well as some other measures. More information on the model, including Stata code and input data, is available here.)

''The OBR noted that other estimates of the hit to goods trade were around the same as those from my model. By the third quarter of 2021, the global market share of British exports had fallen by around 15 percentage points relative to the OBR’s March 2016 forecast. In other words, Britain’s export share was always going to fall as China and other emerging economies grew, but it has been falling faster than the OBR predicted before the 2016 referendum. And the degree to which UK domestic demand is satisfied by imports has fallen by around 10 percentage points compared to the March 2016 forecast (which predicted a mild long-term rise)''

Branton, it appears you are not reading the material made available on the subject of the cost of brexit.

https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-september-2021

[drfchound]

Read my earlier post Billy. Brexit has cost only £10 per person per week. I've shown where this figure comes from and how it tallies with OBR analysis - do you dispute it?

It's not a case of people choosing not to notice - it is simply not a big enough impact for most people to notice.

No sensible extrapolation of economic performance into the future (even with the OBRs highly dubious 4% GDP fall) could in anyway shape or form be compared to an avalanche.

I don't dispute there has been some economic hit but listen to Osborne here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564. Views backed up by the majority of our politicians who stood on the same remain platform as him.

Is it any wonder after the vote that the £ fell, business' held off on investments and wage rises, and the stock exchange fell. The majority of the economic hit has been due to misplaced sentiment off the back of political lies and nothing to do with the fundamentals of Brexit itself.

£68,000,0000 x 10 so only 680,000,000 per week, what a bargain, I wonder how many hospital etc ........

I wonder how many people would have 'bought' brexit if that had been on the side of a bus

Get brexit now only £68,000,000 per week

vote tory

Sydney, given that I accept you have added an extra nought by mistake in the first example above, which figure are you promoting here….. because you are coming up with two different answers.
Are you saying it is £68m per week or £680m per week.

[Branton Red]

Read my earlier post Billy. Brexit has cost only £10 per person per week. I've shown where this figure comes from and how it tallies with OBR analysis - do you dispute it?

It's not a case of people choosing not to notice - it is simply not a big enough impact for most people to notice.

No sensible extrapolation of economic performance into the future (even with the OBRs highly dubious 4% GDP fall) could in anyway shape or form be compared to an avalanche.

I don't dispute there has been some economic hit but listen to Osborne here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564. Views backed up by the majority of our politicians who stood on the same remain platform as him.

Is it any wonder after the vote that the £ fell, business' held off on investments and wage rises, and the stock exchange fell. The majority of the economic hit has been due to misplaced sentiment off the back of political lies and nothing to do with the fundamentals of Brexit itself.

£68,000,0000 x 10 so only 680,000,000 per week, what a bargain, I wonder how many hospital etc ........

And if only 10 people lived in the UK that would be £100 per week. What point are you making exactly?

[BVB]

Meanwhile. This.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://mobile.twitter.com/fcdogovuk/status/1486338073864585224&ved=2ahUKEwiGuNWd6tL1AhVJilwKHS_4DIAQo7QBegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw0A3HcpwGJuRAio2vJAildo

From the Govt who negotiated and signed the NI Protocol, lauded it as a brilliant achievement against the odds, then lied repeatedly in the last election campaign about what it implied.

Utterly bizarre.
Complete blx but you have to question the timing….

[SydneyRover]

Read my earlier post Billy. Brexit has cost only £10 per person per week. I've shown where this figure comes from and how it tallies with OBR analysis - do you dispute it?

It's not a case of people choosing not to notice - it is simply not a big enough impact for most people to notice.

No sensible extrapolation of economic performance into the future (even with the OBRs highly dubious 4% GDP fall) could in anyway shape or form be compared to an avalanche.

I don't dispute there has been some economic hit but listen to Osborne here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564. Views backed up by the majority of our politicians who stood on the same remain platform as him.

Is it any wonder after the vote that the £ fell, business' held off on investments and wage rises, and the stock exchange fell. The majority of the economic hit has been due to misplaced sentiment off the back of political lies and nothing to do with the fundamentals of Brexit itself.

£68,000,0000 x 10 so only 680,000,000 per week, what a bargain, I wonder how many hospital etc ........

And if only 10 people lived in the UK that would be £100 per week. What point are you making exactly?

Now you are getting silly Branton, where are you getting your figures from, 10 people living in the UK, surely it's more than that?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton

1Even accepting your £10 per person per week, that's £2000-2500 per family per year. That's the minimum that we have lost in economic output per year already, before the real practical effects of Brexit even started.

2) I agree that most people haven't noticed that because it's not a reduction in income. It's a loss of growth. That is something that people only notice after a while, when living standards stagnate while the rest of the world is generally getting richer. That's what sensible people have always said about Brexit. It was never going to be a cliff edge (outside the possibility of a mad no deal crash out). It was all about a grinding long term deceleration.

3) You cannot call 2020 a Year Zero on this because of COVID. The fundamental problems that Brexit brought to our economy didn't suddenly vanish because COVID came along. If you're having a heart attack then you jump out if a window, you are still having a heart attack.

4) We haven't even seen the main consequences of Brexit yet because the transition period only ended 4 weeks ago. Look at the lorry park that the M20 has become and think about what that is doing to our trade with our biggest economic partner. There are very, very few credible economists who believe that the medium term hit to GDP of Brexit will be less than about 4% of GDP.

5) If you dismiss that, you need some credible argument for how we are going to make up that economic damage over the medium and long term.  Not a "it'll be reight" bit of hand waving.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I forgot the other point.

We as individuals have been insulated from the worst costs of Brexit, because the Govt immediately reduced their deficit reduction plan. This means the majority of the costs have been borne to date by the Exchequer.

But that cannot go on forever.

You can and should run larger deficits temporarily in response to a demand-led slowdown like the GFC. But you cannot address structural problems in the economy (like loss of trade) by continuing to run higher deficits over the long term. Sooner or later the debts get called in. Either with higher taxes (the first one is coming in April), by deeper cuts to Govt spending or by inflation caused by devaluation of your currency. There's no way out of that, UNLESS you sort out your structural economic problem (in this case, seriously reduced and more costly trade with Europe)

If you can point to anyone having a plan for how we do that, I'm all ears.

[SydneyRover]

............... which is why the following is good, to understand how inflation hits the poorest harder and why dismissing inflation and ''only'' £10 per person is not a strong position unless of course one doesn't actually care about the effects on the whole of the population.

''Cost-of-living crisis: Jack Monroe hails ONS update of inflation calculations
Move by government statisticians follows analysis by UK poverty activist of impact on poorest families''

Concern that rising inflation is having a disproportionate impact on people in poorer households in the UK has prompted government number-crunchers to provide a more detailed breakdown of the cost of living.

''The Office for National Statistics said it accepted that every person had their own inflation rate and it would do more to capture the impact of price increases on different income groups.

Mike Hardie, the head of inflation statistics at the ONS, said in a blog the published annual inflation rate – currently 5.4% – was an average for all households. “But everyone has their own personal inflation rate. Some people may spend a larger proportion of their income on gas and electricity, or petrol if you commute via car daily.”''

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/26/cost-of-living-crisis-ons-inflation-jack-monroe

''UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%
Cost of living crisis worsens, piling pressure on Bank of England to raise interest rates again''

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/19/uk-inflation-hits-near-three-decade-high-rising-to-54

[River Don]

The inflation rate in the EU is running at 5.3%. It's almost the same as the UK.

[SydneyRover]

Liz must be sweating on johnson's exit stage left and a reshuffle before this deadline arrives.
Frosty couldn't bully his way through or over the top of it. Brexit the gift to the nation that keeps on giving.

No trade deal with the US if this turns to shit.

''DUP gives Liz Truss February deadline to fix Brexit protocol row
First minister Paul Givan says UK must take action if EU agreement cannot be reached by 21 February''

Truss

''Business leaders at Green’s Food Fare in Lisburn tell me rules are frustrating efforts to bring goods into NI from Great Britain. That’s why the UK Govt is in intensive talks with the EU to find a solution. There is a deal to be done & a shared responsibility to make that happen''

So not because johnson lied all the way through this shit sandwich then?

[drfchound]

The inflation rate in the EU is running at 5.3%. It's almost the same as the UK.

They must be missing us RD.