Ukraine

[SydneyRover]

Are the ruskies frightened of getting all the shiny new tanks used in the 'victory parade' scratched?

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I don't know whether it's propaganda, wishful thinking or confidence but Ukrainian forces believe they can retake Crimea.

At the rate of Russian attrition of ground forces, they believe they will run out of an effective means of advancing.

Of course, Russia still have long range missiles launched from land and sea but they can't occupy without sufficient land forces.

Even a Russian military analyst said recently that a general mobilisation wouldn't help without sufficient equipment and hardware to equip them nevermind the time to train them. Other than a few shiny modern rocket launchers, fighting vehicles, missiles, ships and aircraft, most of their stock is out of date junk.

That's what a corrupt system brings you. Putins being eaten by his own regime.

[River Don]

There are question marks over how long Russia can keep up its bombardment with long range missles because a lot of its tech for these weapons is bought in from the EU. Who of course are no longer supplying.

[River Don]

Just reading in the paper a report that says because Russia has not declared war, Russian soldiers by law still have a lot of civilian rights.

Because it's not a war, they can actually refuse to fight and expect very few sanctions. Apparently this is happening and it's frustrating the high command who cannot even send them to prison. I can only guess the reason this isn't more widespread is because there can't be too many young Russian soldiers who fully understand Russian law.

So there's a job for the Ukrainians. Find ways to get this information to front line Russian troops. Although, I suppose ultimately if successful it would result in Russia simply declaring war but in the short term it would put another spanner in the Russian works.

[SydneyRover]

Thanks RD, that begs the question why doesn't he just do it? is the mighty putin put off by the thought that 'his' people would revolt as his argument collapses?

[SydneyRover]

I have just found this ............

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-05-10/domestic-concerns-stopped-putin-from-declaring-war-on-ukraine-analysts

[BobG]

Ref your point abput retaking the Crimea DBR (post 2131), if that happens, I imagine nobody would be surprised by a future revanchist Russia... That would not be good.

BobG

[mugnapper]

Ref your point abput retaking the Crimea DBR (post 2131), if that happens, I imagine nobody would be surprised by a future revanchist Russia... That would not be good.

BobG

Revanchist - I had to google the meaning. So I’ve learnt a new word in 2 languages and not had breakfast yet!!

[BobG]

Ha ha ha!!!

Nice one Mugnapper!

My knowledge comes from being a faux historian. It's a very useful word in that context.

BobG

[Bristol Red Rover]

Thank you Wilts. I'm sure this chap knows a helluva lot more about this stuff than I do. My mind, though, is still stuck in its mid to late 20th C time warp. How can the Russian behemoth not simply crush whatever it chooses to crusjh?!

Lol. It's a whole new world...

BobG

Likewise I had expected a more dominant invasion, especially from the air superiority. I think there's many reasons why that didn't happen, possibly the main one being the wide use of lightweight anti tank missiles by Ukraine, that seriously changes things. And of course the involvement of NATO.

That expectation is probably the result of both Russian propaganda and that from the West which is at least partly pushed by the need to spend on military as it's a money making scheme for the rich and powerful. A frightened population backing their money going to the pockets of the corporations.

Someone mentioned the old stock of Russian equipment. Much of it was upgraded, significantly so, but doesn't seem up to the job, or just used poorly? I wonder how much there is an attitude of clearing out old stock even if upgraded. Not great for the tankers.

Interesting too how little news is out there about Ukraine losses and failings, not just on the BBC and such tripe, but generally.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Ref your point abput retaking the Crimea DBR (post 2131), if that happens, I imagine nobody would be surprised by a future revanchist Russia... That would not be good.

BobG

Not just that but it seems the locals, a significant 2.5 million, would not be welcoming any Ukraine take over. Ukraine would be starting a long term terrorist/guerilla war and despite the help they'd be getting in terms of loans from the IMF etc, they can't afford that. Plus they'd be losing troops.

[BillyStubbsTears]

More rumours today that Putin has cancer.

No question he looked very ill at the victory Day parade. Sat down with a blanket over his lap. Brezhnev used to stand all through the parade and he was barely alive.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Just reading in the paper a report that says because Russia has not declared war, Russian soldiers by law still have a lot of civilian rights.

Because it's not a war, they can actually refuse to fight and expect very few sanctions. Apparently this is happening and it's frustrating the high command who cannot even send them to prison. I can only guess the reason this isn't more widespread is because there can't be too many young Russian soldiers who fully understand Russian law.

So there's a job for the Ukrainians. Find ways to get this information to front line Russian troops. Although, I suppose ultimately if successful it would result in Russia simply declaring war but in the short term it would put another spanner in the Russian works.

If you recall, quite early on, Putin had to reassure families their conscripted sons would not be sent into active conflict and cross the border into another country. It's against Russian law. It was a lie then and it's still a lie now.

Many of those conscripts who were sent to 'war' and have come to the end of their term, have walked away, despite being offered incentives to carry on fighting.

If I understand this right, it appears Russia are attempting to hide the number of soldiers including conscripts, killed in action for this reason and, to avoid paying out dependants pension and are listing them as 'missing in action'

Ukrainian authorities are storing and recording the identities of Russian soldiers and have offered to send them back but to date Russia has refused to accept them. So far, it appears to be only the professional soldiers bodies who are being repatriated.

If all this was to come out in the Russian media, it would expose Putins lie. 

https://tass.com/politics/1418491

https://www.politico.eu/article/what-the-use-of-russia-conscripts-tells-us-about-the-war-in-ukraine/

[drfchound]

News item on tv tonight was about the young Russian soldier on trial for a war crime killing of an unarmed civilian.
The reporter said it is one of around 11,000 under investigation so far.

[wilts rover]

Thank you Wilts. I'm sure this chap knows a helluva lot more about this stuff than I do. My mind, though, is still stuck in its mid to late 20th C time warp. How can the Russian behemoth not simply crush whatever it chooses to crusjh?!

Lol. It's a whole new world...

BobG

Likewise I had expected a more dominant invasion, especially from the air superiority. I think there's many reasons why that didn't happen, possibly the main one being the wide use of lightweight anti tank missiles by Ukraine, that seriously changes things. And of course the involvement of NATO.

That expectation is probably the result of both Russian propaganda and that from the West which is at least partly pushed by the need to spend on military as it's a money making scheme for the rich and powerful. A frightened population backing their money going to the pockets of the corporations.

Someone mentioned the old stock of Russian equipment. Much of it was upgraded, significantly so, but doesn't seem up to the job, or just used poorly? I wonder how much there is an attitude of clearing out old stock even if upgraded. Not great for the tankers.

Interesting too how little news is out there about Ukraine losses and failings, not just on the BBC and such tripe, but generally.

There will be a slew of books coming out before too long explaining/guessing on this I should think.

I suspect they will probably include things such as: poor logistical planning - over stretched supply lines and poor maintence of kit, lack of air superiority, stronger than expected resistance from the Ukranian Army and the classic - wrong time of year, stuck in the mud so forced to use the roads where they were a sitting target.

[Dutch Uncle]

Thank you Wilts. I'm sure this chap knows a helluva lot more about this stuff than I do. My mind, though, is still stuck in its mid to late 20th C time warp. How can the Russian behemoth not simply crush whatever it chooses to crusjh?!

Lol. It's a whole new world...

BobG

Likewise I had expected a more dominant invasion, especially from the air superiority. I think there's many reasons why that didn't happen, possibly the main one being the wide use of lightweight anti tank missiles by Ukraine, that seriously changes things. And of course the involvement of NATO.

That expectation is probably the result of both Russian propaganda and that from the West which is at least partly pushed by the need to spend on military as it's a money making scheme for the rich and powerful. A frightened population backing their money going to the pockets of the corporations.

Someone mentioned the old stock of Russian equipment. Much of it was upgraded, significantly so, but doesn't seem up to the job, or just used poorly? I wonder how much there is an attitude of clearing out old stock even if upgraded. Not great for the tankers.

Interesting too how little news is out there about Ukraine losses and failings, not just on the BBC and such tripe, but generally.

Just a pedantic point BRR, but it looks to me like a number of NATO nations have decided to provide differing support on a national basis. There will have been some exchanges and talk between them, but NATO as an organisation has not as far as I can see made an overarching assessment of what to send to Ukraine, and then led a meeting (Force Generation Conference) to coordinate and ask nations to meet those requirements.

There is a technical difference between NATO as  an organisation leading everything, and some NATO nations getting together and doing things nationally.

For example a number of NATO nations formed an ad-hoc coalition for the Gulf War after NATO said no, but NATO led and orchestrated e.g. operations in Bosnia and Kosovo.

[River Don]

Major general Kyrylo Budanov thinks Ukraine will have broken the back of the Russian invasion by the end of August.

He thinks the war will be done by the end of the year.

I hope he's right but I wonder how Russia will react if they find themselves in full retreat by the end of the summer?

[BillyStubbsTears]

So the Russian bot explanation for the panicked retreat from Kyiv was that the whole Kyiv attack was a feint to distract Ukranian forces from the main event in the east.

I wonder what the excuse is going to be for what looks like turning into a rout at Kharkiv?

[River Don]

Losing Kharkiv will be humiliating.

They were supposedly trying to link forces from there to Kherson and cut off the Ukrainian army in the East.

That's not going to happen now.

[River Don]

More rumours today that Putin has cancer.

No question he looked very ill at the victory Day parade. Sat down with a blanket over his lap. Brezhnev used to stand all through the parade and he was barely alive.

My mam informed me this morning that one of those Russian 'olliocks' has said he's got blood cancer. All the Russian generals know he's poorly and going mad and will refuse to fire any nukes. So that's alright then. That's what her phone says anyway.

[SydneyRover]

''We have been fighting Russia for eight years and we can say that this highly publicised Russian power is a myth.

It is not as powerful as this. It is a horde of people with weapons.

Budanov said Russian forces attacking the north-eastern city of Kharkiv had been pushed back almost to the Russian border and that their much-reported failure to cross the Siverskyi Donets river several days ago had resulted in “heavy losses”.

 I can confirm that they suffered heavy losses in manpower and armour and I can say that when the artillery strikes happened many of the crews abandoned their equipment.

He also claimed that Russian defeat in Ukraine would lead to the removal of Russian president Vladimir Putin and that a coup was already under way against him. “They are moving in this way and it is impossible to stop it,” he said. He provided no evidence to support the claim.

Furthermore, Putin was in a “very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick”. Rumours of Putin’s ill health have circulated recently but the Guardian has been unable to substantiate them''

Guardian

This is an extremely robust statement from Major general Kyrylo Budanov

[Bristol Red Rover]

So the Russian bot explanation for the panicked retreat from Kyiv was that the whole Kyiv attack was a feint to distract Ukranian forces from the main event in the east.

I wonder what the excuse is going to be for what looks like turning into a rout at Kharkiv?

I think there's a difference between excuse and understanding. And then there's BBC propaganda. Take your pick.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Thank you Wilts. I'm sure this chap knows a helluva lot more about this stuff than I do. My mind, though, is still stuck in its mid to late 20th C time warp. How can the Russian behemoth not simply crush whatever it chooses to crusjh?!

Lol. It's a whole new world...

BobG

Likewise I had expected a more dominant invasion, especially from the air superiority. I think there's many reasons why that didn't happen, possibly the main one being the wide use of lightweight anti tank missiles by Ukraine, that seriously changes things. And of course the involvement of NATO.

That expectation is probably the result of both Russian propaganda and that from the West which is at least partly pushed by the need to spend on military as it's a money making scheme for the rich and powerful. A frightened population backing their money going to the pockets of the corporations.

Someone mentioned the old stock of Russian equipment. Much of it was upgraded, significantly so, but doesn't seem up to the job, or just used poorly? I wonder how much there is an attitude of clearing out old stock even if upgraded. Not great for the tankers.

Interesting too how little news is out there about Ukraine losses and failings, not just on the BBC and such tripe, but generally.

Just a pedantic point BRR, but it looks to me like a number of NATO nations have decided to provide differing support on a national basis. There will have been some exchanges and talk between them, but NATO as an organisation has not as far as I can see made an overarching assessment of what to send to Ukraine, and then led a meeting (Force Generation Conference) to coordinate and ask nations to meet those requirements.

There is a technical difference between NATO as  an organisation leading everything, and some NATO nations getting together and doing things nationally.

For example a number of NATO nations formed an ad-hoc coalition for the Gulf War after NATO said no, but NATO led and orchestrated e.g. operations in Bosnia and Kosovo.

Agreed, i was loosely using the NATO term for the oressure and influence of US and NATO constituents policy, actions, and engagement in Ukraine. I think we all know there is more to NATO than the official channels, and then there's the need for individual constituents to make a show of putting money to the cause, here sending training, equipment, intelligence, and munitions etc against the Russians.

[River Don]

So the Russian bot explanation for the panicked retreat from Kyiv was that the whole Kyiv attack was a feint to distract Ukranian forces from the main event in the east.

I wonder what the excuse is going to be for what looks like turning into a rout at Kharkiv?

I think there's a difference between excuse and understanding. And then there's BBC propaganda. Take your pick.

BBC propaganda my arse.

The Russians are taking one hell of a beating. Poor young men being sent to slaughter, it's a bloody crime.

This whole war is nuts. Putin is nuts.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Depressing how many purveyors of utter b*llocks convince themselves that those who profoundly disagree with them only get their information from the BBC.

[BobG]

Two exceedingly interesting points for me on this page.

The absence of broadcast information referring to Ukrainian losses and Ukrainian foul ups can only be seen as prima facie evidence of manipulation of the news throughout the western world, and, the talk about Putin having cancer. If that is true it would definitely lessen the barriers around rhe Big Bad Button.  Uncomfortable thought....

Actually, there's another interesting point. The suggestion that the power of the 'Russian behemoth' has maybe been exaggerated for decades and decades  to justify all that spend on things military. President Eisenhower warned us all in 1958 or 1959 that the military-industrial complex possesses huge power. Could this be an example of that power in action? Good subject for a research project that.

BobG

[SydneyRover]

Two exceedingly interesting points for me on this page.

The absence of broadcast information referring to Ukrainian losses and Ukrainian foul ups can only be seen as prima facie evidence of manipulation of the news throughout the western world, and, the talk about Putin having cancer. If that is true it would definitely lessen the barriers around rhe Big Bad Button.  Uncomfortable thought....

Actually, there's another interesting point. The suggestion that the power of the 'Russian behemoth' has maybe been exaggerated for decades and decades  to justify all that spend on things military. Predident Eisenhower warned us all in 1958 or 1959 that the military-industrial complex possesses huge power. Could this be an example of that power in action? Good subject for a research project that.

BobG

If your second para is correct that would suggest either a failure of intel or a readiness to ignore it Bob.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

This Ukranian guy provides balanced regulat updates on the battle for Donbas, showing where things are going well, or badly

https://youtu.be/UCh8gPEFUcQ

[drfchound]

WE had a AWACS plane flying over our end of town yesterday, when i told the Mrs what it was she thought we were getting ready for the apocalypse !!

She is going to be really worried on Sunday lunchtime then if she is anywhere around Hatfield.

Do you know the exact flight path?

No but I read that it will be over Hatfield some time between 12.30 and 1.20 but it is coming up from Lincolnshire so if it is going to fly over the church there is a good chance it will go straight over my house.

Depends which way they are going, I’m about a mile and a half North of Hatfield Church

Yeah, I gather so.   A Google search does say it goes over Hatfield but nothing more.
Maybe more info will be available nearer the time.

Filo.  There is a free App you can download, Flightradar24.
You could then follow the flight path once it is in the air.
The flight number is PA474 and is due to take off around 11.45am today.

[glosterred]

I was sent this earlier today