The Great Escape

[GazLaz]

We will only start improving significantly when the likes of Bostock, Galbraith, Anderson and Close return to full fitness.

[Chris Black come back]

Which is not going to be this season. Some may make it back into the squad but it will be too late by time we have our best players fit for 90 minutes.

[Chris the Rover]

We are a poor team, in a mini league of 5-6 poor teams. We have to hope the others fighting it out at the bottom are worse than us for the remainder of the season. We know we can’t defend, so go out and attack. I would rather lose having a go than sit and watch us go all defensive, knowing that it’s only a matter of time until the opposition score.

[dickos1]

Which is not going to be this season. Some may make it back into the squad but it will be too late by time we have our best players fit for 90 minutes.

I think Galbraith will play 90 mins next week,

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after yesterday's results:

17th 55, 53, 50 51
18th 49, 53, 50 48
19th 45, 46, 48 42
20th 43, 43, 43 40
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42 39
22nd 39,40, 41 39
23rd 36, 38, 40 38
24th 30, 27, 33 28

Some dips in the projected final points tally. That's because literally NO team near the relegation zone is in anything remotely resembling form. 7 of the bottom 8 have averaged 1 ppg or less over the past 10 games, which is standard relegation form. The average ppg over the past ten games for all those bottom 8 sides equates to 36 points over a season. In other words, on average, all the bottom 8 are in form equivalent to finishing in 24th spot if it was stretched over a full season. It puts to bed that old wives' tale about how some team always finds form to pull away.

This must be one of the worst groups of teams at this level in living memory. If 40 points actually ends up being enough to clinch 5th bottom (NB: I doubt it will be - just the odd win or two would change things significantly) I doubt there would have been anything like that in English football history.

[GazLaz]

Update after yesterday's results:

17th 55, 53, 50 51
18th 49, 53, 50 48
19th 45, 46, 48 42
20th 43, 43, 43 40
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42 39
22nd 39,40, 41 39
23rd 36, 38, 40 38
24th 30, 27, 33 28

Some dips in the projected final points tally. That's because literally NO team near the relegation zone is in anything remotely resembling form. 7 of the bottom 8 have averaged 1 ppg or less over the past 10 games, which is standard relegation form. The average ppg over the past ten games for all those bottom 8 sides equates to 36 points over a season. In other words, on average, all the bottom 8 are in form equivalent to finishing in 24th spot if it was stretched over a full season. It puts to bed that old wives' tale about how some team always finds form to pull away.

This must be one of the worst groups of teams at this level in living memory. If 40 points actually ends up being enough to clinch 5th bottom (NB: I doubt it will be - just the odd win or two would change things significantly) I doubt there would have been anything like that in English football history.

No coincidence it’s the season after Covid

[IDM]

We just need to get (at least) one point more than the team in 21st place..

Kind of stating the obvious, but the actual points total is irrelevant.

[Draytonian III]

Exactly right ^^^^

[BillyStubbsTears]

We just need to get (at least) one point more than the team in 21st place..

Kind of stating the obvious, but the actual points total is irrelevant.

Agreed. But there is a probability about how many points you need to finish one place above 4th bottom. Looking at what that might be can help you make the right decisions. Not looking at that can f**k your season up, like in 13/14 where we regularly announced we had a 50 point target, when it was obvious 6-8 weeks out that 45 points was a more likely one. We went balls out to win several matches where we could have ground out a draw. And we went down by one point. That was unforgivable amateurishness.

[drfchound]

That outcome was only known with hindsight though.

[IDM]

We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach.  Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..

We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.

[BillyStubbsTears]

We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach.  Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..

We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.

The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.

We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.

[belton rover]

We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach.  Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..

We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.

The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.

We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.

The two positions are incomparable. In 13/14 we were virtually safe with 6 games to go - we should have played safe.
Right now, if we play safe and draw every game (which will actually be quite an achievement) we will be relegated.
We have to gamble.

[ravenrover]

Not if the other teams pick up only 4 points each from now to end of season :-))

[drfchound]

Not if the other teams pick up only 4 points each from now to end of season :-))

Agreed Raven, but as in the 13/14 situation, we won’t know until the season ends, hindsight again.

[IDM]

We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach.  Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..

We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.

The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.

We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.

I’m not talking about going gung-ho to win at all costs, just starting games with the best plan to try and win..

[sedwardsdrfc]

We need to approach each game with a best plan to try and win, and also have a don’t lose approach.  Mind you, that could be said about any fixture throughout the season..

We just need to run faster than the other guy, when being chased by a lion.

The attitude that you have to go out to win every game led to us playing a pitifully unfit Wellens against Bolton and led to us going gung-ho for a winner against Reading in late 13/14.

We lost both. A point from either would have got us to a target that was looking like the safe level from weeks out.

I’m not talking about going gung-ho to win at all costs, just starting games with the best plan to try and win..

If only Wellens thought of that at the start of the season we’d be in the playoffs!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after today's results:

17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51
18th 49, 53, 50, 48 47
19th 45, 46, 48, 42 46
20th 43, 43, 43, 40 38
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39 38
22nd 39,40, 41, 39 38
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38 37
24th 30, 27, 33, 28 28


A quite incredibly shite bottom bunch. And we look like being unable to win 40 points to survive.

[Silkscarf]

Da da da da…

No, sorry, not even my heart is in it tonight.

But it still ain’t quite over.

[Filo]

Da da da da…

No, sorry, not even my heart is in it tonight.

But it still ain’t quite over.

It’s over, stop kidding yourself, these players have not got the heart or desire to fight for our league position, they have given up

[Silkscarf]

You’re right Filo and that has really pissed me off today because a scrappy pathetic win would have seen us on the brink of safety.

But apart from 2 or 3 players today we looked like we didn’t care. That’s what hurt. We should have been tearing into them but we did nothing of the sort. Smith had the right attitude (as always) and he wasn’t even picked to start! I found that staggering.

[Chris Black come back]

I feel most sorry for Terry Bramall. He’s ploughed tens of millions in to the club and it is in a poorer position on the pitch than it was when he got involved in 2006. He is 80 this year and has a load of hassle around the club now and nobody else to share this with. It’s an absolute shambolic situation. Along with the Watsons he has done the hard yards setting the club up and the footballing set up is beyond amateur. Everything about the last couple of seasons has been a total disaster and there is no sign this so going to improve soon.

[Sammy Chung was King]

The people around him have failed in their jobs. Those picking the manager, those scouting the players, the manager himself, his staff and the players. It has been a mess for some time. Any signings are papering over the cracks.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after yesterday's results
17th 55, 53, 50, 51 51 52
18th 49, 53, 50, 48, 47 50
19th 45, 46, 48, 42, 46 44
20th 43, 43, 43, 40, 38 38
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41, 42, 39, 3837
22nd 39,40, 41, 39, 3837
23rd 36, 38, 40, 38, 3737
24th 30, 27, 33, 28, 28 27

Quite incredible just how bad this bottom 5-6 really are. Only Gillingham are in anything like reasonable form and even their form is enhanced by the fact that they played us on Saturday. The other 5 have, between them gained 30 points in the past 50 games (10 games each side). That equates to that group eing in form that would get the five of them an average of 27.6 points over a season.

It's like having five sides who are not much better than we were in 97/98.

[Silkscarf]

So we need 9 points for safety?

If we win at Fleetwood that's 6 points from 7 games. Beat Crewe, lose to Wycombe, draw the other 4. Job done.

Da da da da....

[BillyStubbsTears]

So we need 9 points for safety?

If we win at Fleetwood that's 6 points from 7 games. Beat Crewe, lose to Wycombe, draw the other 4. Job done.

Da da da da....

It's never as definitive as that. This is a broad guide. I'm thinking a team could survive this season with 41-42 points.

[goalkick]

I thought we would Win recent games but sadly was wrong. How we will be successful with this team in the remaining games is very difficult to se happening but we can hope.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Saturday is now absolutely crucial. If we lose to Fleetwood, given that they still have Crewe, Gillingham and Wimbledone to play, they will effectively be very close to being over the line. And if we do lose to a side that hasn't won for 12 games, I fear for our chances of picking up many more points.

[GazLaz]

I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.

[Campsall rover]

I think whoever stays up will need more points than that.

I did a couple of weeks ago. Think 41 may be enough now. 43 will almost certainly by the looks of it.