Coppinger - Half Time

[GazLaz]

So our, significant it must be said, upward trend has just got us to where we were under Wellens. That with a better squad as well

With it being a 10 game average the first 9 games are obviously taking in to account some data from games in which RW was manager. The lines are when the managers left but don’t necessarily indicate a cut off of their results being included in the chart.

I’m not saying GM is the future but he inherited a real mess and are slowly improving. As BST said the latest run of games has been easier than the ones that went before it so improvement in performance should be natural, its beyond that though. Not impossible that we plateau at this level now until the end of the season this it being not enough improvement to be sure he is the man to go forward with.

If I can be bothered tomorrow I may do a comparison between the preformance of Neil Harris at Gills and GM here. He’s seen as the messiah there and GM incompetent here. infact there is very little between the teams in their similar length stints. They have just had a very slight bit more improvement and a little bit more luck. That’s ended up in them creating a 6 point gap. It’s pretty fine margins really but extremely differing perceptions.

[BigH]

The club has been here before on a number of occasions.

If you fail to take L1 seriously you do so at your peril. I'm reminded of the summer of 1985 when Bremner went off to manage Leeds. The club appointed a replacement from within - Cusack as a rookie player/manager - and chanced it's arm at surviving on a shoestring budget. We got relegated in May '88, Cusack departed, we finished bottom with 33 points and a GD of -44.

This decline feels similar. Since McCann - and, it has to be said, a core of high calibre players - departed we've tried to survive in L1, firstly, on Moore's charismatic signing of decent quality loanees and then, following his departure, the efforts of rookie managers in recruiting a mix of highly variable U23 loanees from Premiership clubs and journeymen pros with experience of L1/L2.

That sort of approach failed in the mid-80s and it's failed now.

The late 1980s experience nearly took us out of the EFL. The following season we finished second bottom of the old L2, close to going through the trap door again. Only when Bremner returned did we see anything resembling an upturn. After Bremner departed in '91 the club spiralled into a deeper vortex and, a few years later, nearly died altogether.

The point of this inane rambling? The Board should consider this history, what worked, what didn't and think hard about what is needed to avoid a repeat. In the absence of any significant external investment, forget talk of 'bouncing back' up. What Rovers need now is someone with serious L1/L2 experience, a charismatic presence who can sign promising, ambitious young pros on a permanent basis, who can stabilise the playing side and get us performing again.

[GazLaz]

RD

I've seen precisely zero evidence that a corner has been turned.

We were shite last August.

We were shite last December.

We are shite now.

I would sweep out as much as we possibly could from the management and playing staff (the latter being a problem because the last two managers have signed some very poor players) and I would start again with as clean a slate as we can manage.

This doesn’t include todays game as the numbers haven’t been coded yet.. but the upward trend will continue when they are applied no doubt.

And this is the reason we should keep GM? By your own stats in 90% of games under GM we had a worse XGD than Wellens.

Now we're back at Wellens level.. Which was relegation form.

How can anybody see this as a reason to keep GM? I genuinely can't understand it.

I haven’t said we should. I just say we are very steadily improving, which we are. I think there’s a chance that over the last 12 games of the season we could end up being the 16/17th best team in the division. At no point this season have we been anything other than the 23rd or 24th best. Again, is that good enough, even over that smallish sample? Maybe not, but it’s a lot better that was looking likely not too long ago. The 16th best team in L1 would do ok in L2.

[River Don]

The club has been here before on a number of occasions.

If you fail to take L1 seriously you do so at your peril. I'm reminded of the summer of 1985 when Bremner went off to manage Leeds. The club appointed a replacement from within - Cusack as a rookie player/manager - and chanced it's arm at surviving on a shoestring budget. We got relegated in May '88, Cusack departed, we finished bottom with 33 points and a GD of -44.

This decline feels similar. Since McCann - and, it has to be said, a core of high calibre players - departed we've tried to survive in L1, firstly, on Moore's charismatic signing of decent quality loanees and then, following his departure, the efforts of rookie managers in recruiting a mix of highly variable U23 loanees from Premiership clubs and journeymen pros with experience of L1/L2.

That sort of approach failed in the mid-80s and it's failed now.

The late 1980s experience nearly took us out of the EFL. The following season we finished second bottom of the old L2, close to going through the trap door again. Only when Bremner returned did we see anything resembling an upturn. After Bremner departed in '91 the club spiralled into a deeper vortex and nearly died altogether.

The point of this inane rambling? The Board should consider this history, what worked, what didn't and think hard about what is needed to avoid a repeat. In the absence of any significant external investment, forget talk of 'bouncing back' up. What Rovers need now is someone with serious L1/L2 experience, a charismatic presence who can sign promising, ambitious young pros on a permanent basis, who can stabilise the playing side and get us performing again.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[BigH]

The club has been here before on a number of occasions.

If you fail to take L1 seriously you do so at your peril. I'm reminded of the summer of 1985 when Bremner went off to manage Leeds. The club appointed a replacement from within - Cusack as a rookie player/manager - and chanced it's arm at surviving on a shoestring budget. We got relegated in May '88, Cusack departed, we finished bottom with 33 points and a GD of -44.

This decline feels similar. Since McCann - and, it has to be said, a core of high calibre players - departed we've tried to survive in L1, firstly, on Moore's charismatic signing of decent quality loanees and then, following his departure, the efforts of rookie managers in recruiting a mix of highly variable U23 loanees from Premiership clubs and journeymen pros with experience of L1/L2.

That sort of approach failed in the mid-80s and it's failed now.

The late 1980s experience nearly took us out of the EFL. The following season we finished second bottom of the old L2, close to going through the trap door again. Only when Bremner returned did we see anything resembling an upturn. After Bremner departed in '91 the club spiralled into a deeper vortex and nearly died altogether.

The point of this inane rambling? The Board should consider this history, what worked, what didn't and think hard about what is needed to avoid a repeat. In the absence of any significant external investment, forget talk of 'bouncing back' up. What Rovers need now is someone with serious L1/L2 experience, a charismatic presence who can sign promising, ambitious young pros on a permanent basis, who can stabilise the playing side and get us performing again.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

True RD but, to use another cliche, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

[ravenrover]

Why are people debating this? Both managers have been utterly atrocious.

This has been one of the worst seasons in our entire history. That says it all.

Oh SS how can you say that with some of the seasons both you and I have witnessed over the last 50-60 years? Or on your case longer :-))

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

I've seen precisely zero evidence that a corner has been turned.

We were shite last August.

We were shite last December.

We are shite now.

I would sweep out as much as we possibly could from the management and playing staff (the latter being a problem because the last two managers have signed some very poor players) and I would start again with as clean a slate as we can manage.

This doesn’t include todays game as the numbers haven’t been coded yet.. but the upward trend will continue when they are applied no doubt.

And this is the reason we should keep GM? By your own stats in 90% of games under GM we had a worse XGD than Wellens.

Now we're back at Wellens level.. Which was relegation form.

How can anybody see this as a reason to keep GM? I genuinely can't understand it.

I haven’t said we should. I just say we are very steadily improving, which we are. I think there’s a chance that over the last 12 games of the season we could end up being the 16/17th best team in the division. At no point this season have we been anything other than the 23rd or 24th best. Again, is that good enough, even over that smallish sample? Maybe not, but it’s a lot better that was looking likely not too long ago. The 16th best team in L1 would do ok in L2.

But once again, that last 12 games will have been one of the easiest runs of the season. The current average league position of our final 12 opponents is 15.4.

With a bit of luck, we might just about average more than a point a game from those 12 games. (As it stands, we have 9 points from 10 of those 12 games - to hit the 16th place form you speak of, we need to win our final two games.)

So, most likely, we'll have had usual relegation form in an extended run of games against sides that are at best, significantly worse than average.

I do like optimism as a world view, but this requires you to really stretch credibility.

[River Don]

At the very least can we say that we cannot yet be sure about GMS?

Compare that against the doubts over who we might be able to recruit and how a rebuild job might go?

[Dagenham Rover]

Despite all that BST,

Is another sacking and starting all over again really the best way forward?

Why did we bother sacking RW, if we are saying this end result is acceptable?

I got the impression there was a bit more to Wellens sacking than just results 

[sedwardsdrfc]

At the very least can we say that we cannot yet be sure about GMS?

Compare that against the doubts over who we might be able to recruit and how a rebuild job might go?

I get that there’s a worry about who we could get if GM is to go. But that’s never a reason to stick imo.

Also there’s ways to see who would apply without getting rid 1st.