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Author Topic: Results  (Read 1071 times)

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scawsby steve

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Results
« on June 24, 2022, 05:00:21 am by scawsby steve »
Congratulations to Simon Lightwood and Richard Foord on astounding victories last night.

A 29.9% swing in Tiveton, and a 12.7% swing in Wakefield spells real trouble for Johnson now.

Plus a new record has been set for the biggest ever vote share to be lost, 40.7% in Tiveton.

If the Tories don't act to replace Johnson, they'll be in real trouble before the next GE.



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SydneyRover

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Re: Results
« Reply #1 on June 24, 2022, 06:10:04 am by SydneyRover »
+ Oliver Dowden resigns

Donnywolf

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Re: Results
« Reply #2 on June 24, 2022, 07:52:21 am by Donnywolf »
Ian Dury just on telly

Reasons to be cheerful 1,2,3 if you count Dowdy Dowden

At least he can go back to doubling as Chesney in Corrie now.

Filo

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Re: Results
« Reply #3 on June 24, 2022, 07:59:13 am by Filo »
+ Oliver Dowden resigns

Is that the first rat to desert the sinking ship?

No Cabinet Minister seems keen on giving interviews this morning

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Results
« Reply #4 on June 24, 2022, 08:11:05 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Entirely predictable. When the problem is a person themselves there's not much more the rest of the party can do bar ditch that person.  They'll see sense soon, they mostly always do.

Donnywolf

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Re: Results
« Reply #5 on June 24, 2022, 08:11:52 am by Donnywolf »
Dowdy Dowden dumps Dumbo

Can Carrie Antoinette be appointed for 100k to replace him ?

mugnapper

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Re: Results
« Reply #6 on June 24, 2022, 08:13:23 am by mugnapper »
Cabinet reshuffle on the cards, typical of Johnson’s narcissistic  ‘It’s not me, it’s them’ attitude, but it’s the top job that needs reshuffling if the Tories want to have any chance of turning things around.

Ldr

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Re: Results
« Reply #7 on June 24, 2022, 08:31:37 am by Ldr »
Can’t be decent odds on this government lasting long now thankfully

Filo

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Re: Results
« Reply #8 on June 24, 2022, 08:50:39 am by Filo »
Oliver Dowden 18 days ago

https://twitter.com/oliverdowden/status/1533719783094554624?s=21&t=wATaYBME-bEf-fwPjDUDDQ


How the worm has turned in less than 3 weeks

SydneyRover

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Re: Results
« Reply #9 on June 24, 2022, 09:27:09 am by SydneyRover »
It's all building up, the lies, cronyism, law breaking, NHS, cost of living and government MPs that are giving oppositions ready made arguments for the next election - why didn't you get rid of him?

ravenrover

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Re: Results
« Reply #10 on June 24, 2022, 09:29:05 am by ravenrover »
Wonder what the likes of Raabid and Smog with small majorities are thinking?

Donnywolf

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Re: Results
« Reply #11 on June 24, 2022, 10:01:01 am by Donnywolf »
Raab I am told has lost respect of a lot of his constituents (someone who lives there told me) and he only needs 1279 I think it is to oust him

291 is the magic figure. That's the number of Tory held Seats with a majority LESS than Tiverton MP had

Even Johnson is vulnerable as he too has a very low Maj. and he is trying to grab a Safe Seat somewhere


big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Results
« Reply #12 on June 24, 2022, 11:13:35 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Raab I am told has lost respect of a lot of his constituents (someone who lives there told me) and he only needs 1279 I think it is to oust him

291 is the magic figure. That's the number of Tory held Seats with a majority LESS than Tiverton MP had

Even Johnson is vulnerable as he too has a very low Maj. and he is trying to grab a Safe Seat somewhere



But, General elections are very different - look at Wakefield, turnout very low and Labour's vote share was actually less than 2017.  Would that be the same in a GE, it probably would actually, it's an oddity in that it was always a labour seat until the last election.  The LD's don't think they'll win Tiverton again next time round and remember both seats had MP's leaving in a bad way aswell.

So I see the point on a perfect storm and Labour still have huge work to do to get to government, but that's very achievable if the Tories don't make changes.  If the GE was tomorrow the Conservatives wouldn't get my vote and they need votes from people like me to keep power at the very least.  Who would I vote for instead?  I don't know right now, we don't know enough about what the other parties would do in power, we'll know that soon, but that's not a factor in these elections.

SydneyRover

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Re: Results
« Reply #13 on June 24, 2022, 11:15:18 am by SydneyRover »
Raab I am told has lost respect of a lot of his constituents (someone who lives there told me) and he only needs 1279 I think it is to oust him

291 is the magic figure. That's the number of Tory held Seats with a majority LESS than Tiverton MP had

Even Johnson is vulnerable as he too has a very low Maj. and he is trying to grab a Safe Seat somewhere

Imagine what you'd get as a constituent going to either Raab or Mogg for help, Raab appears to have been trained by grayson and mogg in charge of government efficiency ......

danumdon

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Re: Results
« Reply #14 on June 24, 2022, 11:46:15 am by danumdon »
Just deserts for an appalling performing government, if the rest of the PP cant see the wood for the trees then they deserve to go the same way as these two disgraceful low life's.

What needs to happen now is the party needs to let Johnson know in no uncertain terms that his tenure needs to be terminated, the sooner we loose this parasitic sponging individual and his awful sidekick the sooner this country can start to implement a recovery.

Cabinet reshuffle needed to remove some absolute lumps of wood, starting from the top.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2022, 11:49:27 am by danumdon »

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: Results
« Reply #15 on June 24, 2022, 12:04:07 pm by Glyn_Wigley »
A Cabinet reshuffle is all very well but who would want to join this government right now? I can't see any of those who voted against Johnson wanting to have the toxic stain of being in government blighting their career. Nor any of the younger MPs who want to be a career politician - much better to wait until Johnson and his stigma has gone.

Which leaves a Cabinet Reshuffle as pretty much moving around the current bunch of Titanic deckchairs - most of whom just aren't good enough. Can you imagine Nadine Dorries being given a Cabinet post by anyone else to start with let alone keeping her after she keeps shooting herself in the foot in her mouth?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Results
« Reply #16 on June 24, 2022, 12:08:22 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Raab I am told has lost respect of a lot of his constituents (someone who lives there told me) and he only needs 1279 I think it is to oust him

291 is the magic figure. That's the number of Tory held Seats with a majority LESS than Tiverton MP had

Even Johnson is vulnerable as he too has a very low Maj. and he is trying to grab a Safe Seat somewhere



But, General elections are very different - look at Wakefield, turnout very low and Labour's vote share was actually less than 2017.  Would that be the same in a GE, it probably would actually, it's an oddity in that it was always a labour seat until the last election.  The LD's don't think they'll win Tiverton again next time round and remember both seats had MP's leaving in a bad way aswell.

So I see the point on a perfect storm and Labour still have huge work to do to get to government, but that's very achievable if the Tories don't make changes.  If the GE was tomorrow the Conservatives wouldn't get my vote and they need votes from people like me to keep power at the very least.  Who would I vote for instead?  I don't know right now, we don't know enough about what the other parties would do in power, we'll know that soon, but that's not a factor in these elections.

Excellent points.

Winning Wakefield was an indicator that Labour is back in the game, but it's absolutely not saying anything about the next GE. And yes, a big part of that win is due to people who moved to vote Tory in 2019 not voting at all yesterday, rather than returning to Labour.

Filo

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Re: Results
« Reply #17 on June 24, 2022, 12:18:05 pm by Filo »
If you look at the figures for Wakefield and disregard Blairs landslide victory, despite Labour being the MP there in recent history, Wakefield has always been a marginal seat

danumdon

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Re: Results
« Reply #18 on June 24, 2022, 12:23:41 pm by danumdon »
A Cabinet reshuffle is all very well but who would want to join this government right now? I can't see any of those who voted against Johnson wanting to have the toxic stain of being in government blighting their career. Nor any of the younger MPs who want to be a career politician - much better to wait until Johnson and his stigma has gone.

Which leaves a Cabinet Reshuffle as pretty much moving around the current bunch of Titanic deckchairs - most of whom just aren't good enough. Can you imagine Nadine Dorries being given a Cabinet post by anyone else to start with let alone keeping her after she keeps shooting herself in the foot in her mouth?

The trouble with a great many of these sycophants is that they allowed the rot to permeate from the top, some have not wanted to rock the boat, some are biding their time for when it suits and some are just incompetent, Im sure party managers knew this well before now, a great many outside the cabinet knew this also, what amazes me is why they gave Johnson the vote of confidence when its been common knowledge for a long period that a great many wanted no truck with him?

Is this just a prime example of Westminster political think, that they cant see the wood for the trees.

ravenrover

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Re: Results
« Reply #19 on June 24, 2022, 01:24:13 pm by ravenrover »
Raab I am told has lost respect of a lot of his constituents (someone who lives there told me) and he only needs 1279 I think it is to oust him

291 is the magic figure. That's the number of Tory held Seats with a majority LESS than Tiverton MP had

Even Johnson is vulnerable as he too has a very low Maj. and he is trying to grab a Safe Seat somewhere


I would be more intersted in those of the 291 who only have 4 figure majorities


big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Results
« Reply #21 on June 24, 2022, 01:57:13 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
If you look at the figures for Wakefield and disregard Blairs landslide victory, despite Labour being the MP there in recent history, Wakefield has always been a marginal seat

The Tories have won it once in 90 years, it's never been a marginal seat.

As BST says, Labour has to do more in a GE to sell it's vision.  Does Keir Starmer actually have one?  You'd hope so but we've not heard it yet.  There's a lot of sniping at the Tories but there doesn't appear to be much different that labour would do.  Rail strikes a prime example, some of the strikes are in areas Labour actually control and the scenario is no different (EG TFL).

albie

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Re: Results
« Reply #22 on June 24, 2022, 02:16:32 pm by albie »
Key point to emerge, from Professor John Curtice on BBC Radio:

“The fall in the Tory vote last night was twice as large as rise in the Labour rise in the vote.”

Lots of nervous Tories now, vulnerable to LD revival in the South!

Donnywolf

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Re: Results
« Reply #23 on June 24, 2022, 02:49:57 pm by Donnywolf »
He also said Labour don't have to win for SKS to be PM

Could be 2nd highest Party  say 290 Seats to Tories DUP 320 and balance to SNP Lib Dems Greens.

Non Tories get together under Starmer and democratically propose PR .

Vote 340 FOR  ... all rest AGAINST

The ayes have it the ayes have it UNLOCK

There would be favours to repay as SNP would want their Independence vote granting.
 Lib Dems would want movement on EU maybe another vote
Then they dissolve Parliament and revert to type and Tories with 40 % of votes would get 260 Seats DUP maybe a couple more  .... the rest 388

All figures approx of course not definitive

phil old leake

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Re: Results
« Reply #24 on June 24, 2022, 04:26:06 pm by phil old leake »
Let’s not get too excited about a future general election.  Wakefield has just reversed the shock result of the last election and the other is a protest vote and will not have a great impact on the election. It is not a great night for Labour or Boris.

Can’t see these results meaning an improvement for Labour.  The Tory voters may well revert back on Election Day

phil old leake

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Re: Results
« Reply #25 on June 24, 2022, 04:35:35 pm by phil old leake »
Donny you’re right that the SNP won’t settle for anything less than another vote.  The Lib Dems would want another Brexit vote and a PR vote. The Lib Dems are not reliable s as me could well side with the Tories if the price was right. It could end up a massive debacle and a shambles

wilts rover

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Re: Results
« Reply #26 on June 24, 2022, 05:03:18 pm by wilts rover »
I heard on commentator on the radio today say something along the lines of 'if there was anyone with leadership ambitions in the Tory Party they would be on the radio today setting out what their vision & alternative to Johnson would be. Have you heard anyone, I haven't? Where's Jeremy Hunt for instance.

Because they know that attacking Johnson will doom them with the Johnson loyalists in their constituency. He ain't going nowhere.

BobG

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Re: Results
« Reply #27 on June 24, 2022, 05:05:35 pm by BobG »
Ouch. That's interesting and frightening all at the same time Wilts

BobG

tyke1962

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Re: Results
« Reply #28 on June 24, 2022, 05:07:07 pm by tyke1962 »
Lowest vote for Labour in Wakefield since 1931 despite the win .

Which means the Tories are absolutely terrible but Labour are only terrible .

A hollow victory if ever there was one in my opinion .

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Results
« Reply #29 on June 24, 2022, 07:24:09 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
For f**k's sake Tyke, you embarrass yourself with that post. It was a by-election for Christ's sake. Tell me the last time any by-election had a turnout as high as at a normal election.

Trotting out crap like that is just pathetic. You are a lot better than that.

 

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