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Author Topic: Taiwan.  (Read 807 times)

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Colin C No.3

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Taiwan.
« on August 03, 2022, 10:56:01 pm by Colin C No.3 »
Ukraine all over again albeit a different bully on the ‘World Stage’?.






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normal rules

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #1 on August 04, 2022, 08:21:42 am by normal rules »
Taiwan is a big worry. The uk best keep their nose out of this one.
I was wondering why the US care so much about the place. Then a ditty on the news last night made it clear to me.
The strategic importance of the place in the West Pacific is the obvious one.
Less obvious is the tech aspect. Taiwan semiconductors Co are responsible for the production of huge quantities of micro chips. The worlds biggest producer. Most things electronic in your home will have a chip in them made there.
If China start droppping bombs there it will have catastrophic implications for the global tech market. Companies like Apple, Google,  Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft rely very heavily on Taiwan. I’m guessing that’s what the us want to protect.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #2 on August 04, 2022, 08:55:05 am by BillyStubbsTears »
I'm sure that's a minor factor but the big picture is FAR bigger than that.

The USA gave a guarantee of help to Taiwan in the event of an attack by China, many years ago. That was, and remains, part of a US strategy to constrain Chinese expansionism.

That was clearly going to work when China was both economically and militarily far weaker than the USA. Tbe Chinese are not stupid. They don't want to initiate a war they cannot win.

The big strategic concern all all has been: what happens when China is no longer much weaker than the USA?

We are now moving into that world. China is very nearly an economic match for the USA. It's not close in terms of military power, but Taiwan is 200 miles from China and 8000 miles from San Francisco.

The balance of power will move more and more in China's favour for decades from now. Sooner or later there's going to be a major confrontation over Taiwan. I HOPE this week is just sparring, but it might develop into the real thing. And if not now, sometime in the next 50 years.

Anyone who isn't frightened by this hasn't thought about it.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #3 on August 04, 2022, 09:12:37 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
The visit by America was too much in my view. Why stoke something up on the other side of the world, they didn't need to do that.  Show your strength but don't push it so far it tips the other side over the edge.  An unnecessary issue and potential crisis.

Colin C No.3

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #4 on August 04, 2022, 09:44:49 am by Colin C No.3 »
Xi Jinping has said that he wants the Chinese military to modernise & become a leading power by 2035, he goes on to say “We aim to become a ‘world class’ power fighting & winning wars by 2049”.

Seems we’ve got until nearly 10 minutes to 9 to head for the hills!
« Last Edit: August 04, 2022, 09:48:19 am by Colin C No.3 »

Sprotyrover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #5 on August 04, 2022, 11:00:06 am by Sprotyrover »
Xi Jinping has said that he wants the Chinese military to modernise & become a leading power by 2035, he goes on to say “We aim to become a ‘world class’ power fighting & winning wars by 2049”.

Seems we’ve got until nearly 10 minutes to 9 to head for the hills!
For China to become a true Superpower it needs a huge Blue water Navy,that's why we are building Warships ,why the Yanks are building Warships and why we are on the brink of selling two secondhand Nuclear Hunter killer subs to OZ and then assisting them with technology and know how to build a fleet of 8 of their own Subs based on the Atute Class.

phil old leake

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #6 on August 04, 2022, 12:59:59 pm by phil old leake »
For me the USA have unnecessarily poked a bear that didn’t need poking.
We need to keep our noses out and concentrate on sorting out our problems at home.
The UK should be our priority
As mentioned above there has got to be some agenda for the USA

BahrainRover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #7 on August 04, 2022, 01:28:32 pm by BahrainRover »
It worries me alot. After Taiwan what next? On to the Philippines where I live!! China is already occupying parts of the Spratly and Scarborough Shoal islands, even though in the South China Sea they belong to the Philippines. They are pumping the sea floor and enlarging the islands, putting airfields on them. Apparently this is due to the immediate deep water access to the Pacific undetected for the subs that ate being built. Plus the massive amount of untapped natural fuel resources that are in the Philippines. The US are keeping tabs on this.

Filo

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #8 on August 04, 2022, 01:30:14 pm by Filo »
For me the USA have unnecessarily poked a bear that didn’t need poking.
We need to keep our noses out and concentrate on sorting out our problems at home.
The UK should be our priority
As mentioned above there has got to be some agenda for the USA

f**king nuts those American politicians, why go over there in the first place when the world is like this today, blatant provocation, there’s only one way this will play out now!

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #9 on August 04, 2022, 05:56:23 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
I think this escalation was inevitable with the current Ukraine situation.

I know most will disagree with this, but the US have been clearly pushing in Ukraine for a couple of decades in what they were seeing as an opportunity to weaken Russia whichever way it went - war or effectively taking Ukraine fully into the western system.

It has been noted for some time at how this would benefit China re Taiwan, and in other ways, giving them a bigger opportunity to try their luck. Possibly mainly due to the Taiwan situation, it would also bind China somewhat with Russia. That has all happened. The US now has opened two fronts by stirring up one front.

This all could settle down, but it has realigned the balance of power to a degree.

US politicians have been majorly stupid.

Sprotyrover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #10 on August 04, 2022, 08:16:11 pm by Sprotyrover »
China wants to spandex it can't go east due to India and Russia and of coarse the Pariah state of Afghanistan. So it will be looking at The Philippines and of course it needs to get rid of the problem of Taiwan first.

danumdon

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #11 on August 04, 2022, 08:18:41 pm by danumdon »
I think most on here are wrong or don't appreciate the intentions of the west in regards to what's happing now. with the PRC and Russia.

To me the US are now looking ahead 20 to 30 years, as things stand the PRC are in no position to throw their weight around outside of the immediate sphere of influence, The PRC know this, the US know this, everyone who has any influence on the world stage knows this.

They also know that in 20 to 30 years at the current rate this balance will shift, what do we think will happen then, the PRC have already told us, they intend to assert their regional desires and will start to impose on regimes further afield, eg Japan. The west can have no truck with this as it will completely destabilise the whole pacific region and then the rest of the world.

Unpalatable as it is to many the US being the worlds policeman along with its main allies is the only guarantor of world peace as things stand. If thy allow the PRC to develop its world affecting strategy's (belt and road program) in any substantial way more than present then we are all toast.

This seemingly innocuous appearance of the American House speaker is just the US calling the bluff of the PRC, they for all their bellicose sabre rattling are stupid enough to persist with this show of strength which allows the West to measure their command and control tactics, trace all their heavy weapons movements and register and log all their navy ships weapons and footprint signature for future reference, the exact opposite of the speak quietly and wield a big stick they wanted top portray.

We could well be in for a period of heightened tensions with the PRC , Russia is yet to be silenced but is in the process, the communist Far east will be next.

If this does not happen then the west can expect to be on persistent war footing with these dictatorial countries fro the foreseeable.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #12 on August 04, 2022, 11:15:05 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
DD, the US has instigated regime change or actually invaded how many countries in the last half century? And China or Russia have done that same thing how many times?

I'm not sure what you expect a "world policeman" to be doing, but you have to ask, who exactly are they policing for? Who benefits?

danumdon

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #13 on August 04, 2022, 11:50:28 pm by danumdon »
DD, the US has instigated regime change or actually invaded how many countries in the last half century? And China or Russia have done that same thing how many times?

I'm not sure what you expect a "world policeman" to be doing, but you have to ask, who exactly are they policing for? Who benefits?

Its not a case of how many times the US has instigated regime change or invaded countries, That's what a world policeman has to do when rouge states act disproportionately against others, and when the same go against acceptable norms as far as UN and civilised free world are concerned.

I expect a world policeman to be doing exactly as stated above, for the benefit of the civilised free world.

Can we say that the actions of the PRC today were in line with agreed norms across the civilised world?

Do these actions demonstrate the same lack of civilised understanding as demonstrated by Russia in Ukraine?

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #14 on August 05, 2022, 01:10:43 am by Bristol Red Rover »
A list of questionable or worst interventions by the USA in the last half century:
72 Chile - CIA backed coup installing Genral Pinochet
76-83 Angola - Military and CIA
81-92 El Salvador - Miltary and CIA
81-90 Nicaragua - CIA and military
82-84 Lebanon - Military
86 Libya - Bombing
86 Bolivia - Military
89 Phillipines - CIA and military
89 Panama - Military
91 Haiti - CIA
and so on.

Rogue states indeed, but as defined by the USA, not the UN. It's more of a world dictator than a policeman.

I think the installation of Pinochet says it all, and then the ruins it leaves like in Libya, Iraq.

BobG

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #15 on August 05, 2022, 01:31:53 am by BobG »
You missed Grenada Bristol. The bloody Yanks even invaded Grenada. In 1983. The Queen is Grenada's Head of State. And although we might not condemn, the Yanks also led the invasion of Iraq twice, and, they tried to semi invade Iran too. Certainly they undertook offensive operations on the territory of and against the sovereign nation of Iran.

And who can forget Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos?

BobG
« Last Edit: August 05, 2022, 01:34:14 am by BobG »

danumdon

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #16 on August 05, 2022, 10:45:47 am by danumdon »
A list of questionable or worst interventions by the USA in the last half century:
72 Chile - CIA backed coup installing Genral Pinochet
76-83 Angola - Military and CIA
81-92 El Salvador - Miltary and CIA
81-90 Nicaragua - CIA and military
82-84 Lebanon - Military
86 Libya - Bombing
86 Bolivia - Military
89 Phillipines - CIA and military
89 Panama - Military
91 Haiti - CIA
and so on.

Rogue states indeed, but as defined by the USA, not the UN. It's more of a world dictator than a policeman.

I think the installation of Pinochet says it all, and then the ruins it leaves like in Libya, Iraq.

BRR, so in effect you consider a world without someone like this “world dictator” to be a much better place for the rest of the world and the free west specifically?

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #17 on August 05, 2022, 03:21:11 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
It certainly benefits them. It doesn't benefit the hundreds of thousands slaughtered in the process. You could argue for example that Nicaragua was always going to be better off for the majority of its people as a capitalist state with a US backed puppet government or dictator and all the killing to install that.

But for us? Coming to terms with choosing which self serving expansionist power is best for us? I think the Romans did a good job. Seriously, no state is wholly benevolent, least of all the major powers. Whoever it is we need to do all possible to keep it in check and not feed it. First step is realising this, and living by it, never buy the propaganda. "democracy", "free" - really?

danumdon

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #18 on August 05, 2022, 04:41:50 pm by danumdon »
It certainly benefits them. It doesn't benefit the hundreds of thousands slaughtered in the process. You could argue for example that Nicaragua was always going to be better off for the majority of its people as a capitalist state with a US backed puppet government or dictator and all the killing to install that.

But for us? Coming to terms with choosing which self serving expansionist power is best for us? I think the Romans did a good job. Seriously, no state is wholly benevolent, least of all the major powers. Whoever it is we need to do all possible to keep it in check and not feed it. First step is realising this, and living by it, never buy the propaganda. "democracy", "free" - really?

So basically not up for answering the question, that says plenty.

As for never buying the propaganda, what does that mean to somebody who lives a life that's as free as he needs it to be and has democracy that's about as good as you will get anywhere in the world under any political system?

Sounds like fluff to me.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #19 on August 05, 2022, 08:07:57 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
Quote
Its not a case of how many times the US has instigated regime change or invaded countries, That's what a world policeman has to do when rouge states act disproportionately against others, and when the same go against acceptable norms as far as UN and civilised free world are concerned.

The kind of propaganda you regurgitate above. You ignore all those incidents I listed, and more, where the US were imperialist, no better than Russia. You imply the UN and "civilised free world" (whatever that means) have definied certain countries, ie including those in my list) as rogue states - I think you'll find you are wrong. The US of course wants you to believe otherwise, and apparently they are successful in your case? You got a poster of Pinochet on your wall?

I did answer the question, not sure where you think I ddn't. To emphasise, I don't approve of any nation playing policeman. The UN should be the one doing this. It needs reforming to be able to be more successful in that. And it needs to be proactive. You prefer the US to the UN?

A further issue is how the US is heavily dependent on it's military industry, so war is always to its advantage. Of course by the US I mean those in power there. It has vested interests which should in themselves excliude the US from being World Bobby.

danumdon

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #20 on August 05, 2022, 09:11:35 pm by danumdon »
Quote
Its not a case of how many times the US has instigated regime change or invaded countries, That's what a world policeman has to do when rouge states act disproportionately against others, and when the same go against acceptable norms as far as UN and civilised free world are concerned.

The kind of propaganda you regurgitate above. You ignore all those incidents I listed, and more, where the US were imperialist, no better than Russia. You imply the UN and "civilised free world" (whatever that means) have definied certain countries, ie including those in my list) as rogue states - I think you'll find you are wrong. The US of course wants you to believe otherwise, and apparently they are successful in your case? You got a poster of Pinochet on your wall?

I did answer the question, not sure where you think I ddn't. To emphasise, I don't approve of any nation playing policeman. The UN should be the one doing this. It needs reforming to be able to be more successful in that. And it needs to be proactive. You prefer the US to the UN?

A further issue is how the US is heavily dependent on it's military industry, so war is always to its advantage. Of course by the US I mean those in power there. It has vested interests which should in themselves excliude the US from being World Bobby.

There's no propaganda in my reply, I ignored all the incidents you listed above because its well know that those states all have issues of varying degrees, if they'd been left to their own devices where do you think we'd be now in the world?

I thought you would be aware enough to understand that when i say the US act as the worlds policeman its through the auspices of the UN that they fulfil that role, outside of anyone else who would be prepared to play a lead. Its unfortunate that the majority of the world cannot do this, the only ones who could offer some leadership are too engrossed in trying to build their own empires to give enough support to the UN.

When you talk about the US being heavily dependent on its military industry you could easily include all the leading nations in the world in the same sentence, they all have exports markets to service are we to exclude them all?

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #21 on August 06, 2022, 05:33:38 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
DD, those states where the US intervened may have issues, that arguable. Certainly their situations were not in the US interests and that's why the US intervened. They were not "rogue states". Libya you could argue was a rogue state but that would be buying into US and western propaganda if you read the full story. And the abject destruction and death that the US and UK dealt there is a classic tale of bad guys running riot.

The quote I put there shows how you have excused or whitewashed US actions.

Rather than insisting they act under their own flag, or NATO, the US could easily work at putting it's cash into the UN. It won't, and that is because it doesn't want to toe the line, it is a maverick state.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #22 on August 06, 2022, 07:14:50 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
The US has, for the last 80, and particularly the last 30 years, been the preeminent global power.

That period has, for much of the world, been one of unprecedented peace and prosperity.

Is America perfect? Of course not. They have done some very, very bad things.

The point is that all pre-eminent powers have done very bad things. Pretty much all the preceding ones, like Britain, France, or more localised hegemons like the Ottomans or the Russians or the Holy Roman Empire, or the original Roman empire presided over far, far worse evils.

BRR and his like have an argument that goes like this: Rule by America and the West is imperfect. Therefore it shouldn't be tolerated. It should be opposed and their enemies should be supported.

Which is fine in the abstract. But in the real world, as we may still find out this century, if The West doesn't dominate, someone else will.

The real question isn't do you prefer domination by America over some utopian ideal. It is, do you prefer America to be dominant, or say, Putin's Russia or Xi's China.

Face up to the real question and the answer is f**king obvious.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #23 on August 06, 2022, 10:43:30 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
Quote

BRR and his like have an argument that goes like this: Rule by America and the West is imperfect. Therefore it shouldn't be tolerated. It should be opposed and their enemies should be supported.
#Billyblinkers clearly can't read never mind see what's going on beyond his nose. I said several times my view relating to this, you ignore it. Bizarre. You say that only so you can make your point to support the status quo. Keep munching your hamburgers.

Plus you're coming on all "I'm all right Jack". Been pretty peaceful, except for those in war zones, mainly poorer regions, whilst it's nice and cushtee for those able to put money into the coffers of Amazon and the other legions of billionaires pockets. Are you standing for the Tories any time soon?

To say it again, we're ruled by gangsters, always have been, always will be. There's little difference between them all, just that better the devil you know. Bit like supporting footy teams perhaps? For me, I don't like to feed the gangsters, I'd be happy taking my chance outside that. Maybe something Ukraine might have been wise to do and flourish as a real democracy, as it is they've been used by one set of gangsters as sacrificial lambs to another set of gangsters. And before you all react, think how well its working out for them. I'm all right Jack indeed.

Taiwan, a different situation but could so easily go exactly the same way, though that set of gangsters sacrificing Ukraine may well not be able to deal with the whole mess they're creating if Taiwan goes poop too
« Last Edit: August 06, 2022, 10:51:17 pm by Bristol Red Rover »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #24 on August 06, 2022, 11:06:11 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Yep. Here's  BRR doing exactly what I said. Saying "Things aren't perfect so the current situation must be wrong". And pulling on the self righteous robes and saying anyone who disagrees doesn't care about other people paying the costs.

See. Thing is though the past 70 years under the Pax Americana, the world has seen the lowest rate of military conflict deaths for centuries. Not just us. The world.

https://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8832311/war-casualties-600-years

Because the world has never been an idyll. There have always been bestial actions. Whether the Thirty Years War, or the slave trade, or Belgium raping the Congo, or the front lines at Verdun and the Masurian Lakes and Caporetto or the ovens of Auschwitz and Treblinka.

And yes, the past century, even outside WWII hasn't been perfect. But it's been a f**k sight better for most of humanity than most of human history has been. And the worst atrocities in those times haven't been caused by America. They've been the mad experiments of Stalin and Mao.

So be careful what you want to overthrown. Especially when the new Mao in Xianjing and the new Stalin in Grozny or the Donbas show you without apology what works they would preside over.

Don't f**king lecture me on morals BRR.

scawsby steve

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #25 on August 07, 2022, 06:25:40 pm by scawsby steve »
Yep. Here's  BRR doing exactly what I said. Saying "Things aren't perfect so the current situation must be wrong". And pulling on the self righteous robes and saying anyone who disagrees doesn't care about other people paying the costs.

See. Thing is though the past 70 years under the Pax Americana, the world has seen the lowest rate of military conflict deaths for centuries. Not just us. The world.

https://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8832311/war-casualties-600-years

Because the world has never been an idyll. There have always been bestial actions. Whether the Thirty Years War, or the slave trade, or Belgium raping the Congo, or the front lines at Verdun and the Masurian Lakes and Caporetto or the ovens of Auschwitz and Treblinka.

And yes, the past century, even outside WWII hasn't been perfect. But it's been a f**k sight better for most of humanity than most of human history has been. And the worst atrocities in those times haven't been caused by America. They've been the mad experiments of Stalin and Mao.

So be careful what you want to overthrown. Especially when the new Mao in Xianjing and the new Stalin in Grozny or the Donbas show you without apology what works they would preside over.

Don't f**king lecture me on morals BRR.

Totally agree about Stalin and Mao; and you can throw Pol Pot in with them.

Colin C No.3

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #26 on August 07, 2022, 10:13:53 pm by Colin C No.3 »
That old saying ‘better the ‘devil’ you know’ has never had more credence than it does today.

BobG

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Re: Taiwan.
« Reply #27 on August 10, 2022, 02:13:14 am by BobG »
Thought you might be interested to know that my lad is using a fair chunk of this thread, posts 14, 15, 22, and particularly your post No 24 Billy, to illustrate his contention that the 'realism' way of dealing with international relations (or Ostpolitik for those who remember Willy Brandt) has been, and continues to be, the dominant manner by which international relations are managed. It's the anarchist approach to international relations. The alternative, as this thread conclusively demonstrates, seeking international 'justice', hasn't got a prayer.

Some of you guys have motivated him to actually write quite a good essay on the subject. I'm reading it now. Thanks!

BobG
« Last Edit: August 10, 2022, 04:12:48 am by BobG »

 

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