Red Wall

[albie]

Of the 54 seats that Labour lost to the Tories in 2019, 52 of them voted Leave in 2016.

Are these 2 things linked, do you think?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie
Certainly they are, although the lesson from that is not as simple as some people simplistically assume.

In few of those seats did a majority of Labour supporters support Brexit. That's the complicating issue. In most cases, the majority of voters in those seats supported Brexit because a minority of then- Labour supporters voted Leave alongside a large majority of Tory supporters.

Many people on the Left have, in their haste to slag off Starmer, assumed that Labour losing those seats in 2019 under a Ref2 policy means that Labour would have done better if it had embraced Brexit. Whereas the polling evidence throughout early 2019 indicates that if Labour had NOT adopted Ref2 as a policy, it would have faced an existential threat in the majority of the country, and might well have got no more than 20% of the vote.

Politics eh?

[danumdon]

Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.

I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.

I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.

Err. That was precisely what I posted in the OP. The poll has Labour 15% ahead.

[wilts rover]

Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.

I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.

Oh. Polling from last week (+/- from 26th July):

Labour 48% (+3)
Conservative 33% (-1)
Reform UK 6% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 7% (-3)
Green 5% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 3% (+2)

[danumdon]

Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.

I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.

Err. That was precisely what I posted in the OP. The poll has Labour 15% ahead.

That's not what i mean. That poll includes everyone whatever their voting intentions past and present.

I'm asking of the Redwall voters as in the Ex Labour voters who changed to Tory only. Not the whole electorate.

[drfchound]

It seemed clear to me Don.

[danumdon]

Obviously not very interesting for some others then!

[drfchound]

Quelle surprise.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Obviously not very interesting for some others then!

Do you ever think about looking for yourself? There is some data out there and it doesn't tell the story you would like it to. But I'll let you find it for yourself.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST. Where is this data, and what do you do if it doesn't tell the story you would like it to?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Go look for it. I've seen it and I'm very relaxed about what it says.

[Bentley Bullet]

I asked where is this data. Surely you want people to support you and be relaxed with your opinion?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don't give two f**ks what your position is on this. If you want to find it,get your big boy pants on and go look for it.

[Bentley Bullet]

I've been thinking. It doesn't really exist, does it?

[scawsby steve]

BST,

To suggest that the 80 seat majority thrashing that Labour got, would have been even worse if they hadn't pushed for a second Ref, is absolutely ludicrous, and I don't care what stats you come up with.

Utter and total b*ll*cks.

[i_ateallthepies]

BST,

To suggest that the 80 seat majority thrashing that Labour got, would have been even worse if they hadn't pushed for a second Ref, is absolutely ludicrous, and I don't care what stats you come up with.

Utter and total b*ll*cks.

Well reasoned argument.

[danumdon]

Obviously not very interesting for some others then!

Do you ever think about looking for yourself? There is some data out there and it doesn't tell the story you would like it to. But I'll let you find it for yourself.

Well i never, well yes i did, i knew you would have to have your say on this, how did you know i was talking about you ?

Knowing you if this data exists you would of knocked your mam over in you haste to have it up on here. With that not being the case we can only presume your talking Shi*e again.

What gives you the impression that it would tell a story that i won't like, you now turned into David Blaine in your spare time when your not saving the world ?

Is there anything you can't do ?

[ditch_drfc]

Clearly the Red Wall is going to be crucial in the next election. Labour hasn't got a prayer of being the biggest party in 2024 unless it can recover in those seats. So how is it going?

The vote share in the Red Wall seats, averaged out was
Con 47
Lab 39

That was a massive shift from 2017 when it was
Lab 50
Con 42

Here's the latest polling data.

https://mobile.twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1557037175010631680

Lab 48
Con 33.

If that remains (and it's a big IF if course) Labour will sweep the board of those seats in 2024.

Those on the Left who instinctively criticise Labour would do well to remember this. If Labour doesn't get into power, you can have all the policies and all the principles and all the ideology you want. But you'll have a Govt headed by Liz Truss.

Your call.

Few things on this.

One - the 2019 change in red wall tory vote share compared to 2017 wasn't massive.

Two - it's well documented that the fall of the red wall has been a gradual process of decay for decades. Tory vote share has risen and risen at consecutive elections. Mansfield a very good case study. Roughly 20% tory share in the early 00s has now trebled.

Three - The reasons why the red wall fell are mainly attributed to changing demographics over time, ageing populations etc.

Four - you rightly say IF this single poll holds is a big if. Yes. It is a big if. Mainly because midterm polls are notoriously unreliable indicators of future elections. That poll needs even greater caveats given the PM at the next election isn't even in office yet! So here's a comfortable prediction. The result at the next election won't resemble anything like that poll.

Final point - and this is much more important - how do Labour win a majority (not merely largest party) without winning back Scotland?