XG and XGA Table

[oggycompton]

Here's one for you all. We've had a great start as everyone can attest to but an interesting set of stats to consider for you : -

With the shots we've had from the locations we have been in, an average result would have been scoring 6.1 goals - We have scored 10

With the shots we've faced from locations the opposition have been in on average would result in conceding 6.3 goals - We conceded 8

With results as they 'could' have been based on XG rounded up or down to the nearest number we 'could' have 6 points - We have 14

With the table reflecting 'expected results' based off of xg we would be 16th - We are 6th

Above us in that league is Hartlepool. XG has them potentially scoring more than us and conceding potentially way less than us and based purely off of this and if it were only XG, they would be above us in the league. Xg has us having a goal difference of -1 but it is actually +4

Now this shows we either have clinical/quality players in positions requiring it or (I expect both) we have ridden our luck a little bit.

I recognize it's not always stats but it is a good indicator of teams either above where they should be or below where they should be, examples below.

Biggest Overachievers to xg : -

Doncaster    6th position (16th xG)
Barrow         2nd Position (8th xg)
Crewe          7th position (13th xg)
Walsall         9th position (20th xg)

Biggest underachievers to xg : -

Hartlepool    23rd position (13th xg)
Gillingham   21st position  (11th xg)
Stockport     19th position (8th xg)
Harrogate     18th position (5th xg)
Mansfield      8th position (2nd xg)

So its us one of the biggest overachievers statistically versus Hartlepool one of the biggest underachievers statistically.

Which way will it go?

[DRNaith]

So does this form of analysis promote the conclusion that we've been flukey, or that this form of analysis is flawed, or something else?

[oggycompton]

Good question. Probably a bit of both. Just thought it was interesting.

What is for certain is we have scored more than 'the average' would expect to get from our chances and have 8 more points than we 'could' have based off of chances for both teams in games.

[selby]

  I would say it confirms the stats are basically not worth the paper they are written on, and confirms it's a game of chance.

[GazLaz]

Where have you got those figures from? There’s no way on earth Hartlepool are 12th best.

[ChrisBx]

You've got to be careful with xG data that is publicly available, particularly for the lower leagues. I've quickly found some xG data that is significantly different to the numbers in the opening post.

[Panda]

  I would say it confirms the stats are basically not worth the paper they are written on, and confirms it's a game of chance.

Is the right answer selby. I'm not a luddite but the obsession with data in football is way OTT and most of it means jack shit anyway.

It's like on saturday. The data says that Rovers have won every home league game and Mansfield haven't won away. We all saw what happened. That's football.

[oggycompton]

Where have you got those figures from? There’s no way on earth Hartlepool are 12th best.

Stats readily available online

[oggycompton]

  I would say it confirms the stats are basically not worth the paper they are written on, and confirms it's a game of chance.

Is the right answer selby. I'm not a luddite but the obsession with data in football is way OTT and most of it means jack shit anyway.

It's like on saturday. The data says that Rovers have won every home league game and Mansfield haven't won away. We all saw what happened. That's football.

Lets see if we get this straightforward game Saturday against hartlepool

[Chris Black come back]

They’ve scored 1 goal in their last 7 home league games. 630 minutes and 1 goal.

That’s terrible. Even last season the worst run we had at home was two games without scoring.

[IDM]

Those kind of stats are useful for coaches to analyse past performances so they can work out why their players have under or over performed and what they can do about it.

As a means to predict future performances and results, they are meaningless.  There are so many unpredictable variants in a game of football - even the weather can make a difference.

[ditch_drfc]

They’ve scored 1 goal in their last 7 home league games. 630 minutes and 1 goal.

That’s terrible. Even last season the worst run we had at home was two games without scoring.

I think the whole home/away thing is a bit of a misnomer sometimes. There was that run from end of Feb until early April where we didn't even score 1 goal.

Bloody hell you step back now and think about it, and you almost forget just how shocking last season was.

[ForsolongaRover]

All statistics have value, the more you have the better, because what they infer is likely to be more accurate in the long term. If you are “outperforming” them, as is the case with Rovers, it acts as a wake-up call.

When we were in the Championship playing against teams recently relegated from the PL who would often get back at the first attempt, we would usually play better football, create more chances, yet lose to them because they would score one or more from very few chances. In the Saunders promotion season we did it to other teams.

A conclusion would be that xG etc., stats probably are most reliable in the middle third. Statistics have always been unpopular, but dismissing them completely is disregarding what is basically a version of “experience”

[GazLaz]

Where have you got those figures from? There’s no way on earth Hartlepool are 12th best.

Stats readily available online

Shot xG numbers are compiled in different ways by different entities. Most aren’t worth a carrot. Those figures are not accurate at all.

[Panda]

They’ve scored 1 goal in their last 7 home league games. 630 minutes and 1 goal.

That’s terrible. Even last season the worst run we had at home was two games without scoring.

I think the whole home/away thing is a bit of a misnomer sometimes. There was that run from end of Feb until early April where we didn't even score 1 goal.

Bloody hell you step back now and think about it, and you almost forget just how shocking last season was.

Not forgetting that run at the start of the season after the opening Wimbledon home defeat where we went 4 league games without a goal plus the two league cup games at Walsall and Stoke. Six games without scoring.

[ncRover]

If a team / player is underperforming on xG then that means they aren’t very clinical then doesn’t it?

An “xG table” takes away the most important attribute in football.

For years we were the team that “played better” but didn’t win.

[Chris Black come back]

They’ve scored 1 goal in their last 7 home league games. 630 minutes and 1 goal.

That’s terrible. Even last season the worst run we had at home was two games without scoring.

I think the whole home/away thing is a bit of a misnomer sometimes. There was that run from end of Feb until early April where we didn't even score 1 goal.

Bloody hell you step back now and think about it, and you almost forget just how shocking last season was.

Home league goals for Hartlepool are the relevant factor here though, as we are playing them at (their) home in the league. They have a very poor record at scoring goals at home in the league. 

[oggycompton]

If a team / player is underperforming on xG then that means they aren’t very clinical then doesn’t it?

An “xG table” takes away the most important attribute in football.

For years we were the team that “played better” but didn’t win.

It means exactly this. Players aren't very clinical in positions where others may well score. It's effectively an average based on the location the shot was taken from.

And yeah as you say, this may be saying that we have a bit of steel about us, feels a lot like the Saunders promotion season. A bit of guile, a bit of fight.

[Avsuptem]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Those stats could explain the betting odds we have been getting.

[oggycompton]

Yeah, I would think betting companies use things like this. A good metric for finding a potential upset.

Skybet has both us and Hartlepool at 8/5......not as obvious a win as we may think....according to the bookies of course.

[Upton Rover]

Pointless

[DonnyOsmond]

Expected Points table currently has us 21st. There does occasionally happen where a team overperforms or underperforms by a fair bit but mostly xP fairly closely resembles the actual League table after 46 games. We need to improve by a fair distance if we're going to be anywhere near the play offs come May.

[Panda]

Pointless

No. That will be us throughout September if GM doesn't start taking responsibility for his inertia and ineptness.

[oggycompton]

Anyone still thinks its rubbish?

[DonnyOsmond]

Expected Points table currently has us 21st. There does occasionally happen where a team overperforms or underperforms by a fair bit but mostly xP fairly closely resembles the actual League table after 46 games. We need to improve by a fair distance if we're going to be anywhere near the play offs come May.

Down to 22nd now. Next 3 games are against 19th, 23rd and 24th in the xP table.

[selby]

  Yep rubbish

[Pliskin]

I don't have any expected goals data to hand, but I can't imagine it paints a picture too dissimilar to just crudely plotting shots taken per 90 minutes against shots faced per 90 minutes for each team.
 


So far there are a clear group of 10 teams who have faced more shots than they have taken, unfortunately we are very much part of that group.

Alarmingly we are the 2nd worst team for number of shots conceded per 90, only Crawley have performed worse. We have conceded double figures in every match except for one, the win against Stockport (who had 10 men for most of the game).

Does this point to a lack of organisation, or an unbalanced team perhaps? We do seem to be incredibly open defensively, and it's not like it's a trade off for great attacking numbers either.

[oggycompton]

Seems this aged very well