truss

[Redroy]

And good to see Kamikwasi confirm that budgets won't be adjusted for inflation - so a cut of billions of pounds to public services after 12 years of austerity. Not like we have ambulances queuing outside hospitals; people not able to get an appointment; hundreds of kids going missing each year from overstretched children's services; railways and roads going to shit etc.

This place 

[ravenrover]

In one word Ed Davey would you sack him if he was your Chancellor?
Immediately!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Problem is, there's still £43bn of uncosted tax cuts in Kwarteng's budget. That is still economically untenable.

[SydneyRover]

Yep, all they've done is get rid of the bad headlines, very temporarily.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Reminder the opposition are not opposed to the vast majority of the £43bn and they've promised to do a lot with the reversal of that £2bn aswell, it appeared to be the answer to most of their policy pledges.  The exception would be on corporation tax, something I don't necessarily agree with changing from where it is.  There's a lot of work for all parties to do to get something sound proposed to meet their pledges.

My issue with Truss right now is that she's reactive.  She's announced policies not as part of a strategy and not at all joined up.  The reversal is completely right but it just shows a lack of strategy and care, pure basics!

There was a chap in the running who wanted to balance fiscally, keep higher taxes etc - he lost!

[SydneyRover]

The opposition's plan also included a windfall tax to help pay for some of it, which goes a long way to settling nerves about how it all is funded. That is the main problem, zero funding plan to date, zero tick from the OBR, zero brains.

[Panda]

Oh they've got brains. Just no common sense or self awareness of how their relentless appalling behaviour and their baffling, selfish decisions will be perceived by the electorate. Which is why Starmer gets in without lifting a finger or having any policies. All 100% self inflicted by supposedly intelligent people.

[SydneyRover]

How long has the labour windfall tax been a policy? longer than the government's aye?

[phil old leake]

Panda I think the odds are you’re right but don’t forget the Labour Party have 2 yrs to mess it up.  It will only take the current situation to not get as bad as predicted and the Labour loons to raise their heads again and it might be a close call. 

[Glyn_Wigley]

Oh they've got brains. Just no common sense or self awareness of how their relentless appalling behaviour and their baffling, selfish decisions will be perceived by the electorate. Which is why Starmer gets in without lifting a finger or having any policies. All 100% self inflicted by supposedly intelligent people.

Somebody hasn't been watching the Labour Conference.

[Panda]

Oh they've got brains. Just no common sense or self awareness of how their relentless appalling behaviour and their baffling, selfish decisions will be perceived by the electorate. Which is why Starmer gets in without lifting a finger or having any policies. All 100% self inflicted by supposedly intelligent people.

Somebody hasn't been watching the Labour Conference.

For good reason! 

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

How long has the labour windfall tax been a policy? longer than the government's aye?

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-labour-keeps-repeating-misleading-claim-on-energy-windfall-tax

I can't see what they've actually proposed as a % etc other than scrapping the capital allowance for the energy companies.  Labour appear to have lots of (pretty good) policy ideas but still seem a bit light on how they'd fund them.  From the mini budget there isn't that much they've actually said they'll scrap as yet.

[albie]

The failure to match inflation in the settlement for public services means a collapse in the NHS and Schools as a result.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/kwarteng-cuts-tax-truss-budget-b2191341.html

This is basically a suicide note from the Tories...they have nuked themselves for no other reason than an idealogical obsession by a deranged cult leader.

[Redroy]

How long has the labour windfall tax been a policy? longer than the government's aye?

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-labour-keeps-repeating-misleading-claim-on-energy-windfall-tax

I can't see what they've actually proposed as a % etc other than scrapping the capital allowance for the energy companies.  Labour appear to have lots of (pretty good) policy ideas but still seem a bit light on how they'd fund them.  From the mini budget there isn't that much they've actually said they'll scrap as yet.

It wouldn't be my focus right now if I was in charge of Labour's operation. Barring something completely out of the blue, we are a couple years away from a GE. I wouldn't be going out on a limb to do an alternative proposal etc. I'd probs just focus on binning off the 45% top rate cut, bankers' bonus and reinstate corp tax rise.

Got another couple years to properly develop a position and continue to let these incompetent clowns f**k themselves

[Glyn_Wigley]

Oh they've got brains. Just no common sense or self awareness of how their relentless appalling behaviour and their baffling, selfish decisions will be perceived by the electorate. Which is why Starmer gets in without lifting a finger or having any policies. All 100% self inflicted by supposedly intelligent people.

Somebody hasn't been watching the Labour Conference.

For good reason! 

So you're talking crap with good reason!

[SydneyRover]

How long has the labour windfall tax been a policy? longer than the government's aye?

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-labour-keeps-repeating-misleading-claim-on-energy-windfall-tax

I can't see what they've actually proposed as a % etc other than scrapping the capital allowance for the energy companies.  Labour appear to have lots of (pretty good) policy ideas but still seem a bit light on how they'd fund them.  From the mini budget there isn't that much they've actually said they'll scrap as yet.

I can't actually see how the govt is going to fund anything yet which is more to the point wouldn't you agree? It caused the turmoil in the markets and forced the BoE to bail them out. It appears most economists agree, those good with numbers that is ....... a policy failure of massive proportions. It does not bode well for anyone, except an opposition trying to overturn a massive majority maybe.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

How long has the labour windfall tax been a policy? longer than the government's aye?

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-labour-keeps-repeating-misleading-claim-on-energy-windfall-tax

I can't see what they've actually proposed as a % etc other than scrapping the capital allowance for the energy companies.  Labour appear to have lots of (pretty good) policy ideas but still seem a bit light on how they'd fund them.  From the mini budget there isn't that much they've actually said they'll scrap as yet.

I can't actually see how the govt is going to fund anything yet which is more to the point wouldn't you agree? It caused the turmoil in the markets and forced the BoE to bail them out. It appears most economists agree, those good with numbers that is ....... a policy failure of massive proportions. It does not bode well for anyone, except an opposition trying to overturn a massive majority maybe.

That's a different argument though isn't it?  It could well be argued that a political game is ongoing.  The tories almost setting labour up to fail.  If they promise they'll balance the books then they're in for a very hard sell going forwards.  For what it's worth I don't think they'll promise that, they cannot deliver it.

[Panda]

Oh they've got brains. Just no common sense or self awareness of how their relentless appalling behaviour and their baffling, selfish decisions will be perceived by the electorate. Which is why Starmer gets in without lifting a finger or having any policies. All 100% self inflicted by supposedly intelligent people.

Somebody hasn't been watching the Labour Conference.

For good reason! 

So you're talking crap with good reason!

Another brain dead Labour obsessive. Voted Labour all your life have you? Because your old man did and his old man before that? Because you have no individuality? I see.

[tyke1962]

 Quote Of The Day .

Tory Party member outside the Conference centre in Birmingham this morning when questioned on today's U Turn .

 " It was a trap set by Gordon Brown just before he left office "

[Glyn_Wigley]

Oh they've got brains. Just no common sense or self awareness of how their relentless appalling behaviour and their baffling, selfish decisions will be perceived by the electorate. Which is why Starmer gets in without lifting a finger or having any policies. All 100% self inflicted by supposedly intelligent people.

Somebody hasn't been watching the Labour Conference.

For good reason! 

So you're talking crap with good reason!

Another brain dead Labour obsessive. Voted Labour all your life have you? Because your old man did and his old man before that? Because you have no individuality? I see.

Wrong on every detail. As usual.

[ravenrover]

So having made a statement which made his mates millions with the fall of the pound and the BoE spending billions to bail them out Kamikwazi "listens to thr public" and he now does a u turm and re-instates the 45%.
So cancel Fizz with Liz but let's have Fizz with Kwazz.
How more corrupt can this lot get?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The IMF didn’t have a problem with the many multiple times more money spent on trying to stop covid and grind the economy to a halt. More so than the £2bn initially lost through tax cuts, why’s that?

Do you really want to know, or is this just another knee jerk anti-lockdown spasm?

My point was to highlight the relatively small ratio of the tax cuts. For example 2bn in relation to 150bn energy bills support package or 32bn on track and trace.

No need for the spiteful tone, I’m just trying to understand things.

Apologies. I saw exactly that line ooze out of loads of right wing COVID denial sites yesterday, repeated by people who should know better. In fact people who probably DO know better but chose to feed folk that bullshit line.

Here's why there's no comparison. Oh and before we start, the tax cuts are £45bn, not £2bn.

1) Why wasn't Govt spending to support people and companies in lockdown a problem?

You have to understand how Govts borrow. They don't pop down to see the bank manager and ask for a loan. The Treasury offers billions of pounds of Govt bonds, promising to pay interest. I'm effect, the financial markets, dominated by big pension funds decide what interest rate they want in return for buying those bonds.

In 2020, the world economy was grinding to a halt. There were very few safe places for money to go. No big commercial investment opportunities were safe. So the financial markets were falling over themselves to lend money to Govts all round the world at effectively zero interest rate.

2) COVID related Govt spending, though large, had a purpose and was always going to be time limited. The markets could see that.

3) Onto Kwarteng. Where to start? He's made several decisions which have freaked the market.

4) Before that, look at the global context. We are now asking to borrow money in a world awash with rapidly growing economies that have bounced back into growth post-COVID. We now have to persuade bond buyers to buy ours. That means they need to have confidence in the direction our Govt finances are going.

5) And there's the rub. Kwarteng announced £45bn of tax cuts on top of £150bn of energy cap funding and he didn't say a single word about how that would be funded. The tax cuts are key here because they would constitute an ongoing cost, year after year. That's called a current account deficit and you cannot run a country over the long term by borrowing to fill a current account deficit.

6) He claimed, against 99.9% of economic advisers' opinions, that the tax cuts would boost long term growth and thus fill the whole in the accounts.

7) He refused to publish a report by the OBR into what they thought the effect of the tax cuts would be.

8) And the Govt is saying that their policy is growth, while the BoE is following its legally enforced mandate to bring down inflation. Never happened before that the Treasury and the BoE are pulling in directly opposite directions.

9) Put all that together and the financial markets said, "we think you are taking a massive risk spadger. We're not even sure there are any grown ups in charge anymore. We'll lend to you, but only if you give us 5% interest to cover the risk." (It was <1% this time last year.

 10) That bond rate rise, if it sticks, adds £100bn to our annual debt interest bill. That massively depressed our future economic outlook. That puts downward pressure in the Pound, which means more inflation and higher interest rates to control it.

++++++++++

That's why this is nothing like the COVID spending. I saw someone sum it up far better yesterday. They said we are suffering because the markets are demanding a Moron Premium when they lend to us. Because what Truss and Kwarteng have done is THE most moronic economic policy decision, certainly in 50 years, possibly in the last century since Churchill brought back the Gold Standard.

Fair enough, good points.

I have libertarian (this isn’t “far-right” as suggested above) leanings but as you have said, politics is about being adaptable and knowing when the time is right to have more of the policies you would ideally like.

I just believe in a smaller state as it has just grown and grown. After covid, people expect it to do everything.

Has the pound slightly recovered? What would this suggest?

How much smaller do you want our state to be?

Why do you think that would be a fairer, freer, happier, more successful place?

https://mobile.twitter.com/kevverage/status/1576908522574356480

[SydneyRover]

How long has the labour windfall tax been a policy? longer than the government's aye?

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-labour-keeps-repeating-misleading-claim-on-energy-windfall-tax

I can't see what they've actually proposed as a % etc other than scrapping the capital allowance for the energy companies.  Labour appear to have lots of (pretty good) policy ideas but still seem a bit light on how they'd fund them.  From the mini budget there isn't that much they've actually said they'll scrap as yet.

I can't actually see how the govt is going to fund anything yet which is more to the point wouldn't you agree? It caused the turmoil in the markets and forced the BoE to bail them out. It appears most economists agree, those good with numbers that is ....... a policy failure of massive proportions. It does not bode well for anyone, except an opposition trying to overturn a massive majority maybe.

That's a different argument though isn't it?  It could well be argued that a political game is ongoing.  The tories almost setting labour up to fail.  If they promise they'll balance the books then they're in for a very hard sell going forwards.  For what it's worth I don't think they'll promise that, they cannot deliver it.

So now the mini-minded are not doing this to turn the country around they are more interested in 'setting up the opposition' that sounds a bit far fetched even for you pud, give it your best shot tell us where the money is coming from and how it will work.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

How the hell should I know?

[SydneyRover]

How the hell should I know?

Exactly, how the hell would anyone know because supply side economics has never worked before, it's why the markets are so nervous, it's why the the truss-kwarsi experiment will fail. It won't be victimless though pud will it?

[SydneyRover]

It reminds me of that book I read 'how to create a small business' ..............

[BillyStubbsTears]

Head of the IFS on the radio tonight talking about Kwarteng's idea that we need growth. He was quite barbed, saying "Well of course that's the solution but it's not as if no-one has ever thought of that before!"

Thing is, we KNOW what is needed to grow an economy. We need investment in productive infrastructure. We need investment in training and infrastructure. We KNOW these things. But the Tories pig headedly refuse to face that.

So we've just had a decade of utterly stupid insistance that Austerity was the way forward. Cutting education spending. Cutting capital investment. In pursuit of the ridiculous idea, pushed by the genius Matt Hancock when he was Osborne's adviser of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction. Absolute claptrap that if Govt cuts its spending, somehow industry flourishes.

Now we have a tried and failed idea that if you cut taxes in an inflationary environment, somehow it encourages business to thrive. When we know that what it does is to cause an unsustainable boom followed by a heavy crash, just like it did in the early 70s and late 80s when the Tories tried it.

They are ideologically wedded to the idea that cutting the size of the state makes the economy grow. It doesn't. It's a faith that has been shown to be wrong over and over.

For God's sake, let's get rid of them for twenty years and start repairing the mess they have made.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Open warfare on Truss at the Tory conference. Never, ever seen anything like this from a serving Cabinet Minister.  Baldly ripping the piss out of Truss.

https://mobile.twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1577226123960012800

[BillyStubbsTears]

Christ, I'm way off the pace. Only just seen that Mordaunt has been brazenly contradicting Truss on benefits.

And Truss was asked today if she trusts Kwarteng. And she refused to answer.

What an utter shit shower this lot is. Utterly unfit to be in power.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating stuff for students of our Government system.

In our system, if a PM has the broad support of a good majority in the Commons, they can act as though they are President. They can announce policy knowing it will go through. There's little debate and little pressure on Govt to not do what the PM wants.

So Thatcher was like that once she'd settled in. Blair was. Johnson was until he f**ked up too many times.

Cameron shouldn't have been able to be like that because the LDs should have kept him on a lead, but they supported everything he did, so he could have the same approach.

Compare to PMs who don't have control of a big majority. They get flak from all sides and are criticised openly by their own MPs who try to pressure them into policy change. May, Major, Callaghan, Wilson.

That second category is where Truss is already. She holds an 80 seat majority, but half her own MPs dislike her. And she's f**ked up so badly this month, she has squandered any hope of a honeymoon period. It's knives out for her already.