General Election Imminent ...?

[tyke1962]

What's everyone's thoughts ?

Personally I can't see her riding this out , way way too many high profile enemies for one .

2 ,  The Red Wall Tories aren't going to support her nutjack ideological policies in low paid and economically challenged constituencies .

3 , Possibly 70% of Tory MP's didn't want her to start with .

4 , I don't believe the Tory government have the stomach to govern much longer , worn down and can't face the shyte show any longer .

I'm tipping a December election .

[Glyn_Wigley]

Ditching Truss is much more likely than an election - who is stupid enough to want an election when you're 30% down?

Personally, I can see the backbench Tory MPs keeping Truss (for continuity, swapping leader yet again so soon looks awful) but running the show how they want it, telling her what to do if she wants to get anything through Parliament. Just as May was completely neutered by her own MPs when she was PM.

[scawsby steve]

What's everyone's thoughts ?

Personally I can't see her riding this out , way way too many high profile enemies for one .

2 ,  The Red Wall Tories aren't going to support her nutjack ideological policies in low paid and economically challenged constituencies .

3 , Possibly 70% of Tory MP's didn't want her to start with .

4 , I don't believe the Tory government have the stomach to govern much longer , worn down and can't face the shyte show any longer .

I'm tipping a December election .

You could be right, Tyke. However, whether it happens soon or in 2 years time, one thing is certain; Keith is going to inherit a poisoned chalice.

I really don't envy him with the task he's facing.

[wilts rover]

Truss out and either Johnson or Sunak in - would be my thought.

No way are c150 Tory MP's going to give up 2 years salary £160k+ expenses unless they are forced.

[tyke1962]

What's everyone's thoughts ?

Personally I can't see her riding this out , way way too many high profile enemies for one .

2 ,  The Red Wall Tories aren't going to support her nutjack ideological policies in low paid and economically challenged constituencies .

3 , Possibly 70% of Tory MP's didn't want her to start with .

4 , I don't believe the Tory government have the stomach to govern much longer , worn down and can't face the shyte show any longer .

I'm tipping a December election .

You could be right, Tyke. However, whether it happens soon or in 2 years time, one thing is certain; Keith is going to inherit a poisoned chalice.

I really don't envy him with the task he's facing.

Me neither Steve .

[tyke1962]

Truss out and either Johnson or Sunak in - would be my thought.

No way are c150 Tory MP's going to give up 2 years salary £160k+ expenses unless they are forced.

I just don't see how they can sell another leadership contest Wilts to the nation and expect to come out of it in a better position fighting an election .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Absolutely zero chance of an early election.

If they ditch Truss, the MPs will choose a replacement (Sunak, probably)  and elect him by proclamation, without letting the membership have the chance of choosing another dead eyed headcase like Truss.

There's no likelihood whatsoever of Tory MPs choosing to vote down their own Govt without having a replacement, and so force a GE when they are 30% behind in the polls.

[BobG]

They've got 2 choices:

Die  - Carry on with Truss
Become a joke - have another leadership election

Of the two, the second is, slightly, less damaging. But it's still catastrophic. So, what's out in left field?

BobG

[Glyn_Wigley]

Absolutely zero chance of an early election.

If they ditch Truss, the MPs will choose a replacement (Sunak, probably)  and elect him by proclamation, without letting the membership have the chance of choosing another dead eyed headcase like Truss.

There's no likelihood whatsoever of Tory MPs choosing to vote down their own Govt without having a replacement, and so force a GE when they are 30% behind in the polls.

Ben Wallace might stand next time, could he attract the 'not-Sunak' vote?

[Glyn_Wigley]

So much for Cabinet Collective Responsibility. I've never before seen Cabinet colleagues not only disagreeing but publicly slagging each other off! Any competent PM with have kept a lid on it or sacked anyone who went public. Watch this space...ie the one between Truss's ears.

[tyke1962]

 

Absolutely zero chance of an early election.

If they ditch Truss, the MPs will choose a replacement (Sunak, probably)  and elect him by proclamation, without letting the membership have the chance of choosing another dead eyed headcase like Truss.

There's no likelihood whatsoever of Tory MPs choosing to vote down their own Govt without having a replacement, and so force a GE when they are 30% behind in the polls.

Do you think Sunak is the unification candidate though Billy ?

Personally I don't because the ERG can't stand him because he's a high tax man .

For this to even look remotely credible as in Brown getting the top job unopposed , Sunak would have to have the same support and I don't think he has .

In fact no bugga has , well there's one but even these lunatics can't bring him back .

I think the Tory press will call time on this government and that's going to be the fatal blow .

[ravenrover]

How can Trussed be deposed? Can't have an internal vote of no confidence she has a years grace. Can't have a no confidence vote in Parliament that would mean an Election. Her Ministers surely aren't going to turn on her and tell her to resign, she gifted them their position.
Looks like we are stuck with her unless the back bench red wallers who know they aren't going to be re elected grow some and dare to support a Parliamentary no confidence due to her batsh!t policies

[Glyn_Wigley]

How can Trussed be deposed? Can't have an internal vote of no confidence she has a years grace. Can't have a no confidence vote in Parliament that would mean an Election. Her Ministers surely aren't going to turn on her and tell her to resign, she gifted them their position.
Looks like we are stuck with her unless the back bench red wallers who know they aren't going to be re elected grow some and dare to support a Parliamentary no confidence due to her batsh!t policies

The backbenchers don't need to vote no confidence, just vote down everything Truss puts before Parliament they don't agree with. Either they control her that way and turn her into a puppet like May or Truss has enough and quits.

EDIT: The interesting thing would be to see what they did if a VNC was introduced by an opposition party. I can't see any Tories voting for a VNC but quite a few might abstain rather than be seen to defend Truss...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Absolutely zero chance of an early election.

If they ditch Truss, the MPs will choose a replacement (Sunak, probably)  and elect him by proclamation, without letting the membership have the chance of choosing another dead eyed headcase like Truss.

There's no likelihood whatsoever of Tory MPs choosing to vote down their own Govt without having a replacement, and so force a GE when they are 30% behind in the polls.

Do you think Sunak is the unification candidate though Billy ?

Personally I don't because the ERG can't stand him because he's a high tax man .

For this to even look remotely credible as in Brown getting the top job unopposed , Sunak would have to have the same support and I don't think he has .

In fact no bugga has , well there's one but even these lunatics can't bring him back .

I think the Tory press will call time on this government and that's going to be the fatal blow .

There's not a chance in a million of there being a General Election any time soon.

 More chance of a f**king Donny midfielder winning a challenge tonight.

[Donnywolf]

What's everyone's thoughts ?

Personally I can't see her riding this out , way way too many high profile enemies for one .

2 ,  The Red Wall Tories aren't going to support her nutjack ideological policies in low paid and economically challenged constituencies .

3 , Possibly 70% of Tory MP's didn't want her to start with .

4 , I don't believe the Tory government have the stomach to govern much longer , worn down and can't face the shyte show any longer .

I'm tipping a December election .

You could be right, Tyke. However, whether it happens soon or in 2 years time, one thing is certain; Keith is going to inherit a poisoned chalice.

I really don't envy him with the task he's facing.

He'll surely just say don't blame me it's that Sir Keir that's in charge

[Donnywolf]

Absolutely zero chance of an early election.

If they ditch Truss, the MPs will choose a replacement (Sunak, probably)  and elect him by proclamation, without letting the membership have the chance of choosing another dead eyed headcase like Truss.

There's no likelihood whatsoever of Tory MPs choosing to vote down their own Govt without having a replacement, and so force a GE when they are 30% behind in the polls.

Do you think Sunak is the unification candidate though Billy ?

Personally I don't because the ERG can't stand him because he's a high tax man .

For this to even look remotely credible as in Brown getting the top job unopposed , Sunak would have to have the same support and I don't think he has .

In fact no bugga has , well there's one but even these lunatics can't bring him back .

I think the Tory press will call time on this government and that's going to be the fatal blow .

There's not a chance in a million of there being a General Election any time soon.

 More chance of a f**king Donny midfielder winning a challenge tonight.

Spot on. They know they will lose whenever the GE comes

So they will cling on for the duration and loot the Country good and proper while 60% of people watch on in despair

And at the same time hammer the workers especially on pay and conditions and privatize as much of NHS as they possibly can

To think just the Poll Tax saw Thatcher off ... and the only way to stop this lot would seem to be concerted  strike action to bring the country to a stop and which is supported by at least 60% of the electorate

[phil old leake]

There is no way in a thousand years there will be an election.  The Tories are not going to vote lose the election before they have to. 

All the in fighting is embarrassing and unbelievable. She might have to go. It would be good if they could co-opt a replacement without all the drama of the last shambles but I can’t see how that could be done unless there’s some back door discussions for only one candidate to stand

[SydneyRover]

Drawing straws is probably the best option

[Glyn_Wigley]

Drawing straws is probably the best option

Drawing blood could be the reality!

[BobG]

Drawing a picture would probably give us a better PM than we've had for several years now.....

BobG

[ChrisBx]

I certainly hope so.

[ncRover]

I think the conservatives have given up.

They elected their leader to lower tax to the same rate as the new Labour years, but bottled it on such a basic conservative ideology. They don’t have the patience or confidence in their own ideas anymore. The voters need that intellectual confidence in a leader and a clear way of doing things for the country.

If Labour want to get elected, they need to demonstrate this and not bow to the pressure from the left wing of their own party.

[tyke1962]

There is no way in a thousand years there will be an election.  The Tories are not going to vote lose the election before they have to. 

All the in fighting is embarrassing and unbelievable. She might have to go. It would be good if they could co-opt a replacement without all the drama of the last shambles but I can’t see how that could be done unless there’s some back door discussions for only one candidate to stand

Just consider this though Phil , Dizzy Lizzy can't get enough support to get any of her business through parliament , there's more than enough Tories who would vote with the opposition or abstain .

However the Tories can't get rid of her for at least 12 months according to their rule book .

That's Parliamentary paralysis , it ceases to function in the interests of the country .

At that point the King would have to step in and dissolve it which then leads to an election .

It's an outside bet granted but not impossible with the times we live in today .

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think the conservatives have given up.

They elected their leader to lower tax to the same rate as the new Labour years, but bottled it on such a basic conservative ideology. They don’t have the patience or confidence in their own ideas anymore. The voters need that intellectual confidence in a leader and a clear way of doing things for the country.

If Labour want to get elected, they need to demonstrate this and not bow to the pressure from the left wing of their own party.

Truss and Kwarteng haven't "bottled it" on tax cuts. They are still going ahead with £43bn worth.

The problem is not the cuts per se. It's the fact that they were planning to fund them by borrowing. And they used voodoo economics that nobody believes  other than a slack handful of cranks, to claim that these cuts would miraculously produce economic growth that would pay for the cuts.

It's batshit. The markets knew it and called them out on it. Now they are going to Plan B. Which is to pay for the tax cuts through massive cuts on public expenditure.

[Draytonian III]

Whenever there is another general election the one thing that is true is that I’ll never vote Labour, I did until Tony Blair got in, never again

[drfchound]

Whenever there is another general election the one thing that is true is that I’ll never vote Labour, I did until Tony Blair got in, never again

Despite what some on here would have you believe, there will still be plenty of the members of the public who think exactly the same way.
The off topic part of this forum is obviously very left biased but I wouldn’t think that applies to the whole country.

[ncRover]

I think the conservatives have given up.

They elected their leader to lower tax to the same rate as the new Labour years, but bottled it on such a basic conservative ideology. They don’t have the patience or confidence in their own ideas anymore. The voters need that intellectual confidence in a leader and a clear way of doing things for the country.

If Labour want to get elected, they need to demonstrate this and not bow to the pressure from the left wing of their own party.

Truss and Kwarteng haven't "bottled it" on tax cuts. They are still going ahead with £43bn worth.

The problem is not the cuts per se. It's the fact that they were planning to fund them by borrowing. And they used voodoo economics that nobody believes  other than a slack handful of cranks, to claim that these cuts would miraculously produce economic growth that would pay for the cuts.

It's batshit. The markets knew it and called them out on it. Now they are going to Plan B. Which is to pay for the tax cuts through massive cuts on public expenditure.

Do you think people who earn in the top 1% needed their energy bills capping?

[BillyStubbsTears]

No I don't. Which is why I was saying two months ago that a price cap was a very sub-optimal approach.

I'm not sure I understand what that has to with the specific thing we were talking about though.

[River Don]

Absolutely zero chance of an early election.

If they ditch Truss, the MPs will choose a replacement (Sunak, probably)  and elect him by proclamation, without letting the membership have the chance of choosing another dead eyed headcase like Truss.

There's no likelihood whatsoever of Tory MPs choosing to vote down their own Govt without having a replacement, and so force a GE when they are 30% behind in the polls.

Do you think Sunak is the unification candidate though Billy ?

Personally I don't because the ERG can't stand him because he's a high tax man .

For this to even look remotely credible as in Brown getting the top job unopposed , Sunak would have to have the same support and I don't think he has .

In fact no bugga has , well there's one but even these lunatics can't bring him back .

I think the Tory press will call time on this government and that's going to be the fatal blow .

Sunak isn't really a high tax man. He is following the classic Tory approach to inflation, which is bring it down at all costs, even if it means inflicting recession before stimulating growth again. In that respect he's a lot more Thatcherite than Truss and Kamikwasi.

I doubt in the scenario we find ourselves it would work very well. Inflation in energy is imported. We look like we will be stuck with high energy prices for quite a while so growth will be difficult.

Kwarteng has really just shifted the effects of high energy prices into the bond markets. Instead of consumers generally suffering with expensive energy, it's borrowers, mortgage holders in particular and the pension funds. What a shitshow.

[SydneyRover]

A sugar hit to the economy may produce a temporary boost of activity but without any substantial measures to boost productivity in the medium to long term it is very likely the only growth that will be sustained is inflation.

The markets will decide if Austerity+ is the right way forward or not, they have already fired warning shots across bow of the govt, the next volley may take out truss.