What's with...

[BillyStubbsTears]

...the promotion odds?

We're 25/1.

Swindon who are behind us in the table are 10/1.

Walsall are 4 points behind, albeit with 2 games in hand and are 16/1.

Sutton, Barrow and Tranmere are all behind us. They are all at 20-25/1.

Grimsby are TEN points behind us, albeit with 3 games in hand. They couldn't catch us if they won all 3. Yet they are only fractionally longer odds than us, at 28/1.

Mansfield, Bradford and Stockport are all within touching distance, yet the best prices you can get on them are 11/4, 11/4 & 13/8 respectively.

What am I not getting here?

[rich1471]

Does that pay 4 places or just the top 3

[BillyStubbsTears]

Promotion. So, top 3 plus playoff winner.

[Chris Black come back]

Because - and I pretty much think this is the case - we are 29 games into a 46 game season and not once have we been in the play off positions since the league table stopped being arranged on alphabetical grounds.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Because - and I pretty much think this is the case - we are 29 games into a 46 game season and not once have we been in the play off positions since the league table stopped being arranged on alphabetical grounds.

That doesnt really stack up though does it?

Neither have Sutton, Tranmere and Grimsby. But they are all priced at similar odds to us, even though they are all behind us in the league.

My point is that if you look objectively at league position and potential for reaching the playoffs, our odds scream out as being anomalous compared to those of all the other teams in the mix.

[tommy toes]

The bookies aren't daft. They have odds compilers who keep a very close eye on everything, so I'd imagine they've been  watching how shit we've been all sesson; and adjusted their odds accordingly.
Thing is, after watching us yesterday, now might be the time to have a few quid on at those odds.

[roversdude]

Who are the odds with

[Chris the Rover]

11/2 to finish in the top 7 on Skybet. Before our 2 recent victories the odds were 7/1. Still ridiculous odds in my humble opinion, but if we can win on Tuesday they will probably be cut again. By the way CBCB, we were 3rd in the table after 6 matches.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The bookies aren't daft. They have odds compilers who keep a very close eye on everything, so I'd imagine they've been  watching how shit we've been all sesson; and adjusted their odds accordingly.
Thing is, after watching us yesterday, now might be the time to have a few quid on at those odds.

Follow your logic.

We've been shit most of the season, and we are currently 3 points off 6th place.

The point is, several teams have been just as shit, a bit less shit than or a bit more shit than us, but have significantly shorter odds for promotion.

 I really don' get why we are such an outlier.

[Padge_DRFC]

Can we follow it up though? Won 2. 1 of which playing well. Keeping clean sheets is a start and also allows playing crap and winning.

[tommy toes]

The bookies aren't daft. They have odds compilers who keep a very close eye on everything, so I'd imagine they've been  watching how shit we've been all sesson; and adjusted their odds accordingly.
Thing is, after watching us yesterday, now might be the time to have a few quid on at those odds.

Follow your logic.

We've been shit most of the season, and we are currently 3 points off 6th place.

The point is, several teams have been just as shit, a bit less shit than or a bit more shit than us, but have significantly shorter odds for promotion.

 I really don' get why we are such an outlier.

The bookies use a multitude of stats and algorithms to compile odds, even at League 2 level.
So they have obviously come to the conclusion that other teams around us have a better chance of making the play offs.
It's not hard to argue that we have more points than we deserve, based on performances and stats this season.
So far.

[Prez]

11/2 to finish in the top 7 on Skybet. Before our 2 recent victories the odds were 7/1. Still ridiculous odds in my humble opinion, but if we can win on Tuesday they will probably be cut again. By the way CBCB, we were 3rd in the table after 6 matches.

7/1 with hills top 7 finish. Always shop around.

[IDM]

Aren’t the odds affected by the amount of bets already placed, regardless of the form/potential of the teams involved?

[Alan Southstand]

To answer your question, BST, it’s either the bookies know what they’re doing (they usually do) or it could be our knack of being consistently inconsistent. Or a combination of the 2.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The bookies aren't daft. They have odds compilers who keep a very close eye on everything, so I'd imagine they've been  watching how shit we've been all sesson; and adjusted their odds accordingly.
Thing is, after watching us yesterday, now might be the time to have a few quid on at those odds.

Follow your logic.

We've been shit most of the season, and we are currently 3 points off 6th place.

The point is, several teams have been just as shit, a bit less shit than or a bit more shit than us, but have significantly shorter odds for promotion.

 I really don' get why we are such an outlier.

The bookies use a multitude of stats and algorithms to compile odds, even at League 2 level.
So they have obviously come to the conclusion that other teams around us have a better chance of making the play offs.
It's not hard to argue that we have more points than we deserve, based on performances and stats this season.
So far.

Yes I get that bookies use various stats.

What I'm interested in is what they are seeing that makes us such an outlier.

[Avsuptem]

The bookies aren't daft. They have odds compilers who keep a very close eye on everything, so I'd imagine they've been  watching how shit we've been all sesson; and adjusted their odds accordingly.
Thing is, after watching us yesterday, now might be the time to have a few quid on at those odds.

Follow your logic.

We've been shit most of the season, and we are currently 3 points off 6th place.

The point is, several teams have been just as shit, a bit less shit than or a bit more shit than us, but have significantly shorter odds for promotion.

 I really don' get why we are such an outlier.

The bookies use a multitude of stats and algorithms to compile odds, even at League 2 level.
So they have obviously come to the conclusion that other teams around us have a better chance of making the play offs.
It's not hard to argue that we have more points than we deserve, based on performances and stats this season.
So far.

Yes I get that bookies use various stats.

What I'm interested in is what they are seeing that makes us such an outlier.

It must be the 'howshitarethey' filter applied to the mathematical odds algorithm. Either that or it is simply based on how much money is being backed on the different teams.

[normal rules]

Rovers are 20/1 for promotion with Sky bet.
And Swindon are 10/1.
Very odd

[Bessie Red]

Rovers are 20/1 for promotion with Sky bet.
And Swindon are 10/1.
Very odd

They probably see known players like Charlie Austin & Jonny Williams in the team and think they must be good to go up!

[Dare to dream!]

The bookies aren't daft. They have odds compilers who keep a very close eye on everything, so I'd imagine they've been  watching how shit we've been all sesson; and adjusted their odds accordingly.
Thing is, after watching us yesterday, now might be the time to have a few quid on at those odds.

Follow your logic.

We've been shit most of the season, and we are currently 3 points off 6th place.

The point is, several teams have been just as shit, a bit less shit than or a bit more shit than us, but have significantly shorter odds for promotion.

 I really don' get why we are such an outlier.

The bookies use a multitude of stats and algorithms to compile odds, even at League 2 level.
So they have obviously come to the conclusion that other teams around us have a better chance of making the play offs.
It's not hard to argue that we have more points than we deserve, based on performances and stats this season.
So far.

Yes I get that bookies use various stats.

What I'm interested in is what they are seeing that makes us such an outlier.

Our performances?

[BobG]

By definition our performances can't be any worse than those of Swindon or Barrow or Tranmere....

BobG

[NickDRFC]

By definition our performances can't be any worse than those of Swindon or Barrow or Tranmere....

BobG

By definition our results can’t be, but that doesn’t mean our performances can’t.