Local Election Results

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's not been that much movement in the polls. At New Year Labour were about 20 points ahead. The last 10 polls have them about 16.5 points ahead. Still a long way up on where things were before Truss set fire to the economy.

Sunak has produced a small increase in Tory support after the Truss disaster, which was inevitable once they got a leader who looked like his brain was actually functioning as his lips moved.

But the current polls are at a level where the side in front usually wins the up coming election. 18 months before the  1992 election, Lab and Con were more or less neck and neck. 18 months before 2015, Labour were 5-6% ahead.

Not that anything is guaranteed, but there's not many signs of economic good news on the horizon, more's the pity, so there's still a huge gap for Sunak to make up.

The analyses of Thursday's results putting Lab on 35 and the LDs on 20 are meaningless in General Election terms. The LDs always do better in local elections because they can win seats. Voters know that if they want to get the Tories out next year, they only have one choice in most seats. A few hard-line Corbynistas will refuse to vote Labour, I'm sure, but even yesterday, after the LDs had done so well in the council elections, a poll had Lab on 48 and the LDs on 7. Barring some very big upheaval, I don't see anything like 35/20 happening next Autumn.

There have been 6 national opinion polls since the local elections, all of which have asked who people would vote for if there was a GENERAL (not local Election today.

The average results are

Lab 46.5
Con 27.5
LD  10

Still a long way to go of course but I'm struggling to find a previous passion where one of the two main parties has been this far in front 18 months before an election and not won.

Despite what some people on both the right and left would like to believe, there's been little if any narrowing of the gap under Sunak, barring a small recovery once the Tories had got rid of Truss.

And there's no sign whatsoever in the polls over the past 6 months of Labour losing significant support to the LDs.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And the battle for control of the Tory party after they get turfed out next year is already raging.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65579691