BST's final points predictor

[BillyStubbsTears]

Big H was asking for this the other day and who am I to refuse.

Usual caveats. It's not trying to predict how many points each team will get. It's trying to predict how many points each final position in the table will have. It's not perfect. It's got no scientific basis, but year after year it does seem to roughly work. Last year for example, at this time of the season I was still naively thinking we were in the play-off hunt and was modelling the top of the table. The first week I ran the predictor was early Feb, and the average error between the predictions for the top 7 spots, compared to the actual final points totals was 1.5 point. It got five of the top 7 bang on or  only 1-2 points off.

Anyway. Here goes.

15th 63
16th 58
17th  56
18th 54
19th 48
20th 46
21st 42
22nd 42
23rd 37
24th 26

[drfchound]

Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.

[Spilsby Red]

I go to as many home games as I can. Living 1.5 hours away. Health restricts me esp if me ( not great health, my wife ( has serious illnesses). So at times am restricted but try as I bring my son. He loves the club. Always will support my club.

[Filo]

Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.

here’s hoping, lets say 15 points, but like BST says, it’s not fool proof, but has been pretty close over the years, the updates every week are interesting

[drfchound]

Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.

here’s hoping, lets say 15 points, but like BST says, it’s not fool proof, but has been pretty close over the years, the updates every week are interesting

Agreed, 15 points would be great and then we won’t be checking the scores of other teams on the last day of the season.

[adamtherover]

We have played 10 of the top 11 sides away from home already, so if it's at all possible, we have an easier run in than it could have been...

[BillyStubbsTears]

We have played 10 of the top 11 sides away from home already, so if it's at all possible, we have an easier run in than it could have been...

Or look at it this way.

We have most of the top teams still to play at home. And we've lost 4 of our last 5 home games anyway.

And we are absolute cack away from home.

[normal rules]

Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.

If ppg stays around the same average then rovers will get 18 points from 18 games.

[Filo]

It seems 41.8 pts is the average points total to be relegated

https://www.thestatszone.com/football/how-many-points-are-needed-for-league-2-survival

[BigH]

Thanks BST, good work.

I’d hate for us to be the team that ends up around 37 points.

Hopefully, a wake up call to the club.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That 26 points for 24th place is interesting. If it's right, it means there's a team in this division not much better than us in 97/98.

[Donnywolf]

I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0

[ncRover]

If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.

I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.

With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.

We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.

With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.

How many points do we get out of:

Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)

[normal rules]

If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.

I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.

With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.

We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.

With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.

How many points do we get out of:

Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)

5 points from these I reckon.

[Chris Black come back]

If you exclude the MK Dons match, when was the last league game we competed for 90 minutes?

The answer to that should really concern everyone.

[andy didcott]

 I think a few weeks ago people on here just like myself put a bet on rovers finishing in the top half, looking unlikely now, but I’m still hoping.

[Pancho Regan]

I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0

Same here Wolfie, and that really pi***s me off.

I genuinely thought when I placed that bet that it was nailed on to pay out. The first time I've ever bet on Rovers but I couldn't have been more confident that I would be taking money off the bookies.

It really hurts to know they got one over on me - thanks a lot Rovers!

[Colin C No.3]

I put a bet on with a forum member with monies going to the Academy so at least I kept the bet ‘in house’ & not padding the wallets of bookies.

It hurts nonetheless though how badly we’ve capitulated this season. I think in truth it’s had us all scratching our heads.

The bet ‘included’ Ironside scoring more than 10 goals from open play. We’ve eighteen games to go & he’s ‘stuck’ on seven.

It’s all on you Joe!

[pib]

With Cotterill in at FGR, and Sutton seeming to stabilise slightly, it's hard to see the bottom side finishing on 26 points, as no other team in the division aside from those two can now do so. I think that'll be the anomaly with the model this season.

We should have enough to get 10-14 points from 18 matches surely? I might just give up on football if we can't even manage that.

The concern is that we rarely draw games, and have lost more than Sutton and only one fewer than FGR.

Every point could be vital, so we need to find some way of staying in games and not conceding on an industrial scale like we have not just this season, but for the past 3 years. It's going to be nervy.

[TonySoprano]

I fully expect us to stay up. Im not overly concerned about relegation at this stage.

[Reg of the Rovers]

I fully expect us to stay up. Im not overly concerned about relegation at this stage.

[ncRover]

I put a bet on with a forum member with monies going to the Academy so at least I kept the bet ‘in house’ & not padding the wallets of bookies.

It hurts nonetheless though how badly we’ve capitulated this season. I think in truth it’s had us all scratching our heads.

The bet ‘included’ Ironside scoring more than 10 goals from open play. We’ve eighteen games to go & he’s ‘stuck’ on seven.

It’s all on you Joe!

He needs some support in attack! Picking Craig, Hurst and Molyneux doesn’t help him out whatsoever.

[adamtherover]

I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0

I almost put on a sizable bet I was that confident, then drew back at the last minute after remembering all my bets fail, hence why I never bet..

[Dutch Uncle]

Thanks BST

I am reminded of a traditional saying in the modelling & simulation community that I was a member of (not sure where it came from) - 'All models are wrong, some are useful'. Yours has proved itself, despite being (IMHO) one which I would not have automatically expected to be. Then again models, like hypotheses are covered by Einstein's 'everything should be made as simple as possible, but not more so'. 

[ian1980]

I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0

I bet £100 on that and at the time thought it was easy money. Never imagined for a second this is where we’d be now.

Thankfully, I cashed out a couple of weeks ago when the cash out was roughly what I’d bet.

Appalling the position we’re in. Another terrible season for the record books

[i_ateallthepies]

If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.

I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.

With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.

We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.

With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.

How many points do we get out of:

Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)

5 points from these I reckon.

For that to happen, nr, would require either that Rovers get at least one win or go on a five match unbeaten run.  Why do I not feel optimistic about either?

[normal rules]

If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.

I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.

With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.

We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.

With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.

How many points do we get out of:

Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)

5 points from these I reckon.

For that to happen, nr, would require either that Rovers get at least one win or go on a five match unbeaten run.  Why do I not feel optimistic about either?

For clarity, my prediction is based on beating Sutton, and drawing two of the others. We are very short on draws this season.
If I was to put my neck out:

Sutton win. Please god don’t lose this one.
Tranmere lose
Salford lose
Grimsby draw
Wimbledon draw.
5 points.

This isn’t wearing too well.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Sutton away lose
Tranmere home win
Salford away lose
Grimsby away draw
Wimbledon home draw

[MachoMadness]

Harrogate have done us a big favour tonight.

[Chris Black come back]

February quite a critical month.

Forest Green play Colchester, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Tranmere.

Sutton play us, Morecambe, Wrexham, Bradford, Colchester and Notts County.

We have Sutton, Tranmere, Salford, Grimsby and Wimbledon.

I don’t see us winning too many but you would be hard pressed to imagine either Sutton or Forest winning more points in February than we do. If that is right, then the currently big gap will remain. That’s a big deal going into March.