Crawley v barrow

[roversdude]

Can’t see Crawley losing this unfortunately but Barrow have us Bradford and Mansfield after that

[steve@dcfd]

I can’t see Crawley losing in the next three games but they did on Saturday. So if they beat Barrow then we have to do the same next Saturday. We will be same points a Barrow on 67 points. Barrow play Bradford on the Tuesday we play Colchester. So we again will need a win and hope Bradford can win or draw. Then it’s all down to the last Saturday

[BillyStubbsTears]

I feel like we should be wanting a Barrow win. We don't need to catch one of them, and Crawley getting no points makes them easier to catch.

It's a very tough call.

Yes we only need to catch one of them.

But

If both of them are in reach, there's double the chance of one of them slipping up.

But

If both of them get a point tomorrow, they are both a bit closer to getting a points total that beats us.

A couple of weeks ago,vivwas looking at Barrow's final week and thinking they had two very tough games in Bradford and Mansfield at home. Bradford should still be a tough one as their players have points to prove, but I'm now worried that Mansfield may be in a position where they play all their second choice as they have nothing riding on the last game.

So, I'm now thinking Crawley ar the realistic target.

So, a Barrow win might be a decent result.

But.

If Crawley lose, they can still get 71 points and they have a better GD than us, so we'd still need to win all the final 3 to ensure 7th place.

In which case, the optimal result for us is possibly a draw tomorrow night. Means 3 wins for us still beats Crawley, but it keeps Barrow within reach as a Plan B in case we don't win all three.

That said, it'll be what it is.

[RoversInSpain]

Poor home form v poor away form, neither team dare lose
0-0 written all over it

[adamtherover]

ive been focussed on the teams currently in top 7, when working out what we need, forgetting theres a slew of teams just behind us, namely bradford, who can get 69 pts, now that is one team i deffo wouldnt want to face!!  FRIKKIN ANDY COOK!!!! :-(

[scawsby steve]

ive been focussed on the teams currently in top 7, when working out what we need, forgetting theres a slew of teams just behind us, namely bradford, who can get 69 pts, now that is one team i deffo wouldnt want to face!!  FRIKKIN ANDY COOK!!!! :-(

Woody put him in his pocket last time we played against them.

[i_ateallthepies]

Usually the draw is the better result with only 2pts being taken from the fixture and shared but in this situation the permutations available make it impossible to know which is best for us, we'll only know at the end of the season which one would have been best.  My preference though at this stage is for Barrow to get two straight reds in added time and then hang on to beat the Creepys.  Too much to ask?

[Guernsey Exile]

I was just thinking the same. I’m in.

Perhaps we can have a thread on here to accompany the game.

Lucky pint?

[Padge_DRFC]

A draw is the best result as we could still over take crawley with the game in hand and Barrow have Mansfield on the last day of the season

Only concern is Mansfield on the beach. They'll be promoted tomorrow but won't have a chance of winning the league

[adamtherover]

ive been focussed on the teams currently in top 7, when working out what we need, forgetting theres a slew of teams just behind us, namely bradford, who can get 69 pts, now that is one team i deffo wouldnt want to face!!  FRIKKIN ANDY COOK!!!! :-(

Woody put him in his pocket last time we played against them.

but we still lost, one of the few play off chasing teams we havnt beaten this yr... And don't get me started on Tyler smith!!  I'm more than happy with any other team.

[scawsby steve]

ive been focussed on the teams currently in top 7, when working out what we need, forgetting theres a slew of teams just behind us, namely bradford, who can get 69 pts, now that is one team i deffo wouldnt want to face!!  FRIKKIN ANDY COOK!!!! :-(

Woody put him in his pocket last time we played against them.

but we still lost, one of the few play off chasing teams we havnt beaten this yr... And don't get me started on Tyler smith!!  I'm more than happy with any other team.

We didn't lose, we drew 1-1, and we were unlucky not to win.

[adamtherover]

ive been focussed on the teams currently in top 7, when working out what we need, forgetting theres a slew of teams just behind us, namely bradford, who can get 69 pts, now that is one team i deffo wouldnt want to face!!  FRIKKIN ANDY COOK!!!! :-(

Woody put him in his pocket last time we played against them.

but we still lost, one of the few play off chasing teams we havnt beaten this yr... And don't get me started on Tyler smith!!  I'm more than happy with any other team.

We didn't lose, we drew1-1, and we were unlucky not to win.

sorry, im talking about the cup game, apologies, I'd forgotten about the recent league game..  doh...

[Silkscarf]

I was just thinking the same. I’m in.

Perhaps we can have a thread on here to accompany the game.

Lucky pint?

Yes, I think we should have a non-Rovers game on there for the first time. We need everyone on board with their calculators, SPSS, Excel, crystal balls, bits of moss dangled out the window etc.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is next to zero chance of US playing Bradford in the playoffs.

One of Crawley and Barrow will have at least 68 points tomorrow night. Bradford can only get 69 points and they have a worse GD than either of those teams.

It's possible Bradford could just about overtake one of those teams. But both they and we need to overtake both of them AND then win both of our semis for us to play Bradford in the playoffs.

Not going to happen.

[adamtherover]

There is next to zero chance of US playing Bradford in the playoffs.

One of Crawley and Barrow will have at least 68 points tomorrow night. Bradford can only get 69 points and they have a worse GD than either of those teams.

It's possible Bradford could just about overtake one of those teams. But both they and we need to overtake both of them AND then win both of our semis for us to play Bradford in the playoffs.

Not going to happen.

let's hope so, I know you are correct, but there's this minute nagging doubt in my mind that summat weird is going to happen?

[turnbull for england]

Summat weird is happening, and it's happening to us

[dickos1]

There is next to zero chance of US playing Bradford in the playoffs.

One of Crawley and Barrow will have at least 68 points tomorrow night. Bradford can only get 69 points and they have a worse GD than either of those teams.

It's possible Bradford could just about overtake one of those teams. But both they and we need to overtake both of them AND then win both of our semis for us to play Bradford in the playoffs.

Not going to happen.

There’s been quite a few “it’s not going to happen” posts over the last few weeks

[Superspy]

I feel like we should be wanting a Barrow win. We don't need to catch one of them, and Crawley getting no points makes them easier to catch.

It's a very tough call.

.....

If Crawley lose, they can still get 71 points and they have a better GD than us, so we'd still need to win all the final 3 to ensure 7th place.

In which case, the optimal result for us is possibly a draw tomorrow night. Means 3 wins for us still beats Crawley, but it keeps Barrow within reach as a Plan B in case we don't win all three.

That said, it'll be what it is.

My thinking was simply that the GD is close enough that if Crawley lose, we might only need 2 wins and a draw to take 7th on GD.

Any other result makes it more like we'll need 3 wins. What I'd really like tonight is Barrow to smash them by 4 or 5.

I'll admit I wasn't considering what games came next. I think most importantly though,  anything other than a Crawley win puts it in our hands... and that's remarkable given where we were 3 months ago.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is next to zero chance of US playing Bradford in the playoffs.

One of Crawley and Barrow will have at least 68 points tomorrow night. Bradford can only get 69 points and they have a worse GD than either of those teams.

It's possible Bradford could just about overtake one of those teams. But both they and we need to overtake both of them AND then win both of our semis for us to play Bradford in the playoffs.

Not going to happen.

There’s been quite a few “it’s not going to happen” posts over the last few weeks

Yes, you've made your point. Multiple times. Well done.

If we DO do this, it doesn't change the fact that it'll have been against odds of 1 in multiple lifetimes. Just stop needling and enjoy it.

[moses]

I did try and work out if there was a scenario where us and Gillingham could play out a result like Germany v Austria in 1982 World cup and both qualify. Everyone would hate us, but we would not care.

I think it would need a draw tomorrow night, both Barrow and Crawley to lose all their remaining games and us and Gillingham to win the our remaining games before the final day. If Barrow and Crawley finish earlier than us with Gillingham winning. We could relax.

I know I should be relaxing and enjoying it, the best run of wins in my lifetime and the only thing that matters is beating Barrow, but I keep looking at the table.

It is the hope that kills you.

[Alan Southstand]

Hang on, what about Walsall?

[Campsall rover]

Hang on, what about Walsall?

They are still in with a shout if they beat Swindon tonight.
They need other results to go for them even more than us though.

It’s intriguing and getting a bit nerve racking. So many different permutations.

But we can only control our results not others. The pressure is on the teams now in the  play off places.
It’s theirs to lose. For us it’s ours to gain.

[colincramb]

Put it this way. Forget the rest, if we win on Saturday we are (very likely) 2 wins off being in the playoffs. Thats the only permutation that matters.

[moses]

Put it this way. Forget the rest, if we win on Saturday we are (very likely) 2 wins off being in the playoffs. Thats the only permutation that matters.

I know that to be true but it hasn't stopped me getting up at 3.30 am and scribbling out a set of results out to work possible scenarios.

[philsky]

All I know is that Saturday is our fourth consecutive "biggest game of the season"

[dknward2]

So a draw and 3 sending off each side and multiple yellows for suspension under totting up system

[Avsuptem]

I did try and work out if there was a scenario where us and Gillingham could play out a result like Germany v Austria in 1982 World cup and both qualify. Everyone would hate us, but we would not care.

I think it would need a draw tomorrow night, both Barrow and Crawley to lose all their remaining games and us and Gillingham to win the our remaining games before the final day. If Barrow and Crawley finish earlier than us with Gillingham winning. We could relax.

I know I should be relaxing and enjoying it, the best run of wins in my lifetime and the only thing that matters is beating Barrow, but I keep looking at the table.

It is the hope that kills you.

That's a fascinating hypothesis for the game at the Priestfield Stadium. If it were to occur I just cannot imagine Grant McCann countenancing a 1982 Germany V Austria scenario, not in a million years.

[ForsolongaRover]

Reading comments on the respective Forums, the mood is pessimistic in both camps, even though the Barrow lot seem fairly confident of the Top 7.

However there is acknowledgment that the latter are going to need something more than they have managed to produce to get anything out of any Away fixture against fellow Play-off contenders.

The Crawley fans feel that their manager lacks empathy with the players, favouring a universal big stick when a lot of his players are inexperienced and need more sympathetic handling especially in crucial matches at home.

So that makes it pretty even and perhaps given the pressure, the more experienced Barrow team might well avoid defeat.

[drfchound]

It is often better to be the hunter than the hunted.

[Draytonian III]

Barrow are 2/1 to win tonight, anyone tempted ?