Possible outcomes on Saturday

[Arsenal Of The North]

The first time I’ve felt nervous about a game in bloody ages! Throughout this whole run, I’ve been over optimistic, but now it’s at very crunch time and there really is no more wiggle room, the nerves have hit. I hope the players feel it too and they can thrive on it.

[streathamdave]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Got to put yourself in the position to ask her Scawsby. You don't ask you don't get. RTID

[BillyStubbsTears]

It was a truly astonishing save.

Saves like that require a large slice of luck. The skill is in reacting rapidly enough to get his hand in the right area, but no goalkeeper is making that save by watching the ball onto the hand and choosing to get their hand in precisely the right place. Having got your hand roughly in position quickly enough, you're hoping that the ball hits it squarely and you get lucky.

[Avsuptem]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Keep yer hands off my bird Scawsby !

[Guernsey Exile]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Got to put yourself in the position to ask her Scawsby. You don't ask you don't get. RTID

Still 50/50..... you will or you wont

[DonnyBazR0ver]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

I said the other day, this run is like having one of those fantasies, but then actually waking up in the morning to find a naked Liz Hurley asleep in your bed and then wondering......??

[scawsby steve]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Keep yer hands off my bird Scawsby !

It's not me you need to worry about, AV, it's BB and Wolfie. They've both heard that she has a preference for the more elderly gentleman.

[idler]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Maybe not as good as Rovers making the play offs.

[idler]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Maybe not as good as Rovers making the play offs.

There again Mrs. idler did pull me so maybe not out of the question.

[IDM]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

You missed “off to” in that sentence..

[Lesonthewest]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Keep yer hands off my bird Scawsby !

It's not me you need to worry about, AV, it's BB and Wolfie. They've both heard that she has a preference for the more elderly gentleman.

Woohoo I'm in the running aswell then,  Going to ask to take her out around 3pm Saturday, should narrow the competition down a bit!

[BillyStubbsTears]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

I said the other day, this run is like having one of those fantasies, but then actually waking up in the morning to find a naked Liz Hurley asleep in your bed and then wondering......??

I know that one.

It's when you've had a blackout and you're not sure if Shane Warne and his googlies were involved an all.

[drfchound]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.

Maybe not as good as Rovers making the play offs.

There again Mrs. idler did pull me so maybe not out of the question.

I see that you have got your forum identity back idler.
Nice one.

[idler]

Cheers hound. Thanks to silent majority and the mods.
I know that sometimes they get criticised but they do a great job in their own time for little credit.

[drfcsteve]

I hadn’t noticed that in the Sutton Crawley match the bookies have Sutton as the favourites, interesting.

[les@donr]

Colchester win, Sutton are doomed. They could do us a favour in beating Crawley.

[philsky]

Right now my single concern is that on Saturday evening I'm scheduled to be at a Kaiser Chiefs concert in London. Priorities somewhat elsewhere, if you get my drift.

Tickets up for sale and Mrs R fairly chilled as she understands the Rovers thing for me and my lad.

However, if they dont sell then no Rovers for me.

Never mind Cameron Diaz or Liz Hurley, this is serious 

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK, I couldn't help myself cos this is what I do. Folk who get disproportionately triggered by probability and graphs should leave now and save their blood pressure.

I've looked at all the permutations of W-L-D for all the remaining matches involving the realistic play-off contenders.

Then I've looked at the bookies's odds for each outcome for Satdi's matches and estimated what they are likely to  be for next week's matches.

With that, you can then estimate the likely % chance of each side getting any possible final points tally.

Results are shown on the graph below.

This is how to read it.

1) Choose a final points total on the bottom line.

2) Go straight up from there till you hit the coloured line for the team you are interested in.

3) Go horizontally from there to the far left and read off the number, which is the % chance that that team ends the season with AT LEAST that many points.

So, for example, start at 64 points and go up to Donny's red line. Then go to the left and it's 100%. Because we are absolutely guaranteed to finish with at least 64 points.

In general, teams with lines further to the right have a better chance of getting more points. And as it stands, you can hardly get a fag paper between us and Crawley, while Barrow and Crewe have a 30-50% higher chance than us of getting any specific points total.

[BillyStubbsTears]

But this is where it gets interesting. The two graphs below show how the probabilities change if we win (upper graph) or draw (lower graph) tomorrow.

It reinforces what I said in the OP. The difference between winning and drawing tomorrow is absolutely massive. Win and we are clear favourites. Draw and we are clear outsiders.

[Dutch Uncle]

Excellent analysis, many thanks BST. 

Let's get behind the lads tomorrow 

[BobG]

Erudite, lucid and hugely informative. Thank you Billy.

BobG