Predicting the election result.

[ncRover]

Thought this might be an interesting thread to hear everyone’s prediction and then see who is the closest.

Keep it concise, with the size of the majority if you expect one.

I’m predicting a Labour majority of 180 seats. Just pipping the 1997 landslide.

[wilts rover]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

[mugnapper]

Anything could happen between now and Election Day.
Sunak could quit and Starmer could be caught on CCTV mugging a pensioner.
Only an idiot would make a prediction this far ahead of an event where there are so many variables.
(Labour with 135 seat majority).

[Sprotyrover]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

[Filo]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

[BillyStubbsTears]

Thought this might be an interesting thread to hear everyone’s prediction and then see who is the closest.

Keep it concise, with the size of the majority if you expect one.

I’m predicting a Labour majority of 180 seats. Just pipping the 1997 landslide.

Nothing short of Starmer committing bestiality live on the One Show is going to shift the polls.

All that matters now is whether Labour Gets The Vote Out on polling day. Many people may think it's a foregone conclusion and not bother.

If they do, I see the possibility of a 300+ majority over all the other parties.

Low end, I'll go for 200 seats.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

You interested in buying a used car Sir?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Five of the last 10 polls have had the Tories at 19-21%.

That's well into the range where parties totally implode in an election.

Get 30%, you can pick up 200 seats. 27%, maybe 170.

25% and you're down to less than 150.

20% and you're off the cliff edge and down to maybe less than 50.

It happened to the Liberals in 1924, and they never ever came back to be an Election winning force again.

[Sprotyrover]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

[Sprotyrover]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

You interested in buying a used car Sir?

Not off you by the way I got qualifications in Motor engineering.

[Filo]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

He has no respect in Hatfield and Thorne

[ChrisBx]

Labour will take Doncaster East by over 10%.

[drfchound]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

He has no respect in Hatfield and Thorne

I was in the Bay Horse a couple of nights ago and there were plenty of people in there who said they will be voting for Fletcher.

[bpoolrover]

Alot will depend on if the tories come to a agreement with reform,just about all my friends who vote tory will vote reform at the minute

[Iberian Red]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

He has no respect in Hatfield and Thorne

I was in the Bay Horse a couple of nights ago and there were plenty of people in there who said they will be voting for Fletcher.

The Bay Horse has always attracted a certain demographic in that area. Go a few yards down the road and everyone in the Ingram and Blue Bell thinks that he's a right cant

[MachoMadness]

I read an interesting analysis that Labour's support is very broad but very shallow. It said people from all sorts of demographics will vote for them this time, but without any real attachment to them, their MPs, or their policies. No Blairmania this time.

If that's true Labour are on course for a thumping majority this time around. I'll go for around 300 seats. We'll see some big name Tories out of a job, I reckon. However that support will flake away quickly at the first sign of trouble, unless Labour makes quick progress that people can feel.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I read an interesting analysis that Labour's support is very broad but very shallow. It said people from all sorts of demographics will vote for them this time, but without any real attachment to them, their MPs, or their policies. No Blairmania this time.

If that's true Labour are on course for a thumping majority this time around. I'll go for around 300 seats. We'll see some big name Tories out of a job, I reckon. However that support will flake away quickly at the first sign of trouble, unless Labour makes quick progress that people can feel.

I'd agree with that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Alot will depend on if the tories come to a agreement with reform,just about all my friends who vote tory will vote reform at the minute

Not a chance in a million of a deal.

What would be in it for Reform?

Farage doesn't want to properly up the Tories and help them win another 50 seats while still losing.

He wants to destroy them, then absorb the rump that's left after they've got smashed.

The plan is to rebuild a united Tory/Reform party way over to the Right. You'll see it after the Election.

[tommy toes]

Here we are on Derby day and it’s the GE Stakes opening the card.

The runners and riders.

No1 Blue Boy.
He’s been around for a long time and has consistently failed to get anything done. He’ll be hoping there’s plenty of rain. He’s on his 5th jockey as his previous pilots have not got him going. So the diminutive Rich Sunak takes the ride. 66/1

No 2  Rampant Red
After performing miserably in previous seasons this colts fortunes are now on the up as recent victories around the country have him as a massive favourite for the big one, although recent fall outs in the stable have cast doubt on his form. His jockey Spud Stumer has made sure he gets the ride by locking several other candidates in the weighing room. 1/5

No3 Liberally No Chance
Full marks for gamely taking part but has yet to win a race of any note. His rider has warmed up for this by getting wetter than Blue Boys jockey. 1000/1

No4 Braveheart.
Cleaned up north of the border in previous seasons but changes of trainer and the owner of his stable being arrested have severely dented his hopes. Looks sure to be swamped by Rampant Red late on. 2000/1

No5 Reform Splitter
A recent entry in the race but this colts propensity to hang alarmingly to the right might see him end the race in the car park. No chance.
10000/1
No 6 Galloway Lad
Rarely do we see a cat with a trilby on competing in a race like this but here we are, and his hopes are pinned on the race being run in Bradford. Which it isn’t. 3000000/1

And they’re off!
Galloway lad has pulled up before the first as he’s spotted a saucer of milk so he’s out of the race
Now the water jump, oh and Liberally no chance has deposited his jockey Ded Davey into the drink and out of the race.
On the first bend and Reform Splitter, as predicted has lurched further and further to the right, into the car park and was last seen heading for Trump Tower.
Onto the next and Braveheart is losing ground rapidly to Rampant Red.
That leaves Blue Boy but he’s trails Rampant Red by a mile, and oh dear Sunak has jumped off as his flight to the US is about to take off.

That leaves Rampant Red to coast home alone, to a round of applause from the crowd of 450 in their new seats.

[Filo]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

He has no respect in Hatfield and Thorne

I was in the Bay Horse a couple of nights ago and there were plenty of people in there who said they will be voting for Fletcher.

10 people in the Bay Horse and it’s packed to the rafters, it must be the only pub around where punters declare their voting intentions

[Iberian Red]

There's folk that drink in there that don't even know the Secomd World War is over .
I got offered some nylons for the missus last time I went there!
It's always been like that,even back in the day when Merv had it

[Donnywolf]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

Respect or not here are the predictions for how he will fare in the new Constituency

And yes I know the only Poll that counts is on July the 4th

Wonder if he will repeat his "Vote Labour and Coppard will make sure DSA does not open again " ?

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Doncaster%20East%20and%20the%20Isle%20of%20Axholme

[Sprotyrover]

I was in there recently nice pint if Timothy Taylor’s, but it was better and cheaper in Jack Hawley’s

[i_ateallthepies]

There's folk that drink in there that don't even know the Secomd World War is over .
I got offered some nylons for the missus last time I went there!
It's always been like that,even back in the day when Merv had it

Sounds like just the right place for a Hound.

[redwine]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

My tax has increased under the Tories simply due to not increasing the personal allowance. Party of low taxation, pull the other one.

[Colin C No.3]

Labour 485 seats

Tories 66 seats

Libs 59 seats

Reform 0 seats

Green 2 seats

SNP 17 seats

Tories wiped off the political map for generations. At long last their days have long gone. What you sow.

You can fool some of the people some of the time……

[Sprotyrover]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

My tax has increased under the Tories simply due to not increasing the personal allowance. Party of low taxation, pull the other one.

Do you think Labour won’t be increasing taxes?

[IDM]

I got offered some nylons for the missus last time I went there!

Fair swap.??

On topic, I do think Labour will win but realistically plenty of died in the wool Tories will believe the daily fail, so I reckon a majority of 50-80 seats.

[tommy toes]

Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.

Well that's an easy one then.

Loads of people don't get what the point of canvassing is. For the most part, it's got sod all to do with trying to convert people. It's about trying to identify where your supporters live, so on polling day, you can knock on their door and give them a nudge to vote.

If someone's virulently not on your side, that's absolutely their right and you're not going to insult them by arguing the toss with them, unless they genuinely want a civilised, open discussion. Political canvassers aren't Jehovah's Witnesses.

Most people who don't want to talk to you will just say so, firmly but politely.

But you do get the obnoxious ones like you had today TT.