Predicting the election result.

[BillyStubbsTears]

AF.

You can make a fortune then laying off a Labour majority. Currently 1/10.

[Filo]

I was asked yesterday if I knew ANY person who voted to Leave but now says they made an error , or mistake and now regret voting the way they did and if they got another Vote they would choose rejoin

Of all the people known to the lady asking me the question she knew of nobody herself

I said actually I do know 1 person who was saying they had made a bad error 18 months after voting , but only that one

I don't know if anybody on here has said they would change the way they voted or indeed know anyone that would now

I tend not to read the Political threads or other threads that degenerate into Political debates because I have often said people won't change the way I vote and I wouldn't expect anyone to change their minds because of anything I say

I voted leave and now regret it, I would vote to rejoin

What made you regret it Filo?

The one and only reason I voted leave was the issue of immigration, I never took much notice of the wider issues, more fool me

[Bentley Bullet]

I was asked yesterday if I knew ANY person who voted to Leave but now says they made an error , or mistake and now regret voting the way they did and if they got another Vote they would choose rejoin

Of all the people known to the lady asking me the question she knew of nobody herself

I said actually I do know 1 person who was saying they had made a bad error 18 months after voting , but only that one

I don't know if anybody on here has said they would change the way they voted or indeed know anyone that would now

I tend not to read the Political threads or other threads that degenerate into Political debates because I have often said people won't change the way I vote and I wouldn't expect anyone to change their minds because of anything I say

I voted leave and now regret it, I would vote to rejoin

What made you regret it Filo?

The one and only reason I voted leave was the issue of immigration, I never took much notice of the wider issues, more fool me

Strange thing is, I voted remain, but on this forum, as a result, I have been called racist, selfish, thick, inconsiderate, fascist and more because I believe(d) in democracy, and accepted the result of a democratic vote.

How did YOU get away with it?

[IDM]

The issue post-referendum wasn’t about accepting the result IMHO, it was more that there was no realistic understanding of what brexit actually meant to folks in their day to day lives. Plus the shambolic handling of sorting out “deals” by successive PMs.

Getting back to this GE, people will in many cases be swayed to vote one way or another by headlines (misleading or not) or on personalities, or blinkered party tribalism.

That’s why despite the lies of Johnson, pandemic mishandling, partygate, Truss’ disastrous two minutes as PM etc, plenty of folks will still vote Tory.  Some will genuinely believe it’s the correct vote, others have their heads in the sand:

So I don’t think a Labour majority would reach 3 figures.

[drfchound]

There's a lot more like you Filo.
https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Fascinatingly, the big move in opinion seems to have taken place in 2022. I don't recall there being any EU-related big issue then. But what there was, was the realisation that the Tories were an utter car crash.

The Year of Three PMs.
Kamikwaze's Budget
Putting a mentally ill person in Number 10.
Johnson finally and unequivocally to anyone bar Dorries and BB unveiled as a career liar.

I wonder if a chunk of the population woke up that year and realised they'd been conned in 2016?

So much poster baiting going on in this section.
Why bring BB into the frame.
And is there any genuine evidence which says that there was a mentally ill PM in number ten (we all know that bst means Truss).
Despite her car crash of premiership, that is a big statement to make.
As for banging on about Brexit……….. how many more years are we doomed to hear from people who can’t accept the outcome of a democratic vote?
It’s like the kid who takes his ball in when his team is losing.

[IDM]

Again, and as above, accepting the result of the vote isn’t the same as debating how to deal with the consequences of that result.

But anyone on here trying to question what happens next, what’s practical to achieve etc after the vote, gets shot down as a bad loser or worse told to shut up because you lost.!

If you want to see what a bad loser looks like who doesn’t accept a vote result, look no further than Trump.!

[Bentley Bullet]

There's a lot more like you Filo.
https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Fascinatingly, the big move in opinion seems to have taken place in 2022. I don't recall there being any EU-related big issue then. But what there was, was the realisation that the Tories were an utter car crash.

The Year of Three PMs.
Kamikwaze's Budget
Putting a mentally ill person in Number 10.
Johnson finally and unequivocally to anyone bar Dorries and BB unveiled as a career liar.

I wonder if a chunk of the population woke up that year and realised they'd been conned in 2016?

So much poster baiting going on in this section.
Why bring BB into the frame.
And is there any genuine evidence which says that there was a mentally ill PM in number ten (we all know that bst means Truss).
Despite her car crash of premiership, that is a big statement to make.
As for banging on about Brexit……….. how many more years are we doomed to hear from people who can’t accept the outcome of a democratic vote?
It’s like the kid who takes his ball in when his team is losing.

BST's continued condemnation of career liars would be applaudible but his support for the biggest career liar of them all makes it laughable.

[tommy toes]

Are you seriously suggesting that Starmer is a bigger liar (if he is a liar at all) than Boris Johnson?
That’s just ridiculous.
I assume your just fishing as nobody with any sense would post such a thing.

[drfchound]

Again, and as above, accepting the result of the vote isn’t the same as debating how to deal with the consequences of that result.

But anyone on here trying to question what happens next, what’s practical to achieve etc after the vote, gets shot down as a bad loser or worse told to shut up because you lost.!

If you want to see what a bad loser looks like who doesn’t accept a vote result, look no further than Trump.!

Agreed on Trump IDM.
For the record, I voted Remain in the referendum.
We lost fair and square, life goes on.

[Bentley Bullet]

Are you seriously suggesting that Starmer is a bigger liar (if he is a liar at all) than Boris Johnson?
That’s just ridiculous.
I assume your just fishing as nobody with any sense would post such a thing.

Yes, I am. Keir Starmer is a bigger political liar than Boris Johnson.

[tommy toes]

Righto.

[Bentley Bullet]

Righto.

Oh, it was your Righto, was it?

Hope it gets better soon!

[tommy toes]

It was actually. Thanks.

This from BBC verify..
Boris Johnson unveiled the Conservatives' plan to raise the threshold at which people start paying National Insurance contributions while electioneering in November 2019.
He said: "If we're lucky enough to be elected, so the first Budget we will go up to the £9,500 threshold and that will, as I say, put £500 into the pockets of everybody."
But this was incorrect. The Conservatives' own press release said the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 in 2020-21 would be £100 per year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it would be £85 per year.
Has Boris Johnson got National Insurance cut confused?
'There will be no checks on goods going from GB to NI, or NI to GB'
Mr Johnson made this promise about the Brexit deal for Northern Ireland - known as the Protocol - which he negotiated and signed.
But this assertion - in a Sky News interview in December 2019 - was simply not true. It contradicted the terms of his own deal - as we pointed out at the time.
There have indeed been checks on goods from Great Britain (GB) to Northern Ireland (NI) since the Protocol came into force on 31 December 2020. These have led to political problems in Northern Ireland and the government now wants to change the deal.
Northern Ireland Protocol: What did Boris Johnson say?
'There are hundreds of thousands - I think 400,000 - fewer families living in poverty now than there were in 2010'
When we looked into Mr Johnson's claim made in June 2020, we could find nothing in the official poverty statistics to back it up and Downing Street was unable to supply a source for the figure.
The Office of the Children's Commissioner for England, external also examined the claim. Its analysis suggested that between 2010-11 and 2018-19:
800,000 more people in families were in relative poverty
100,000 fewer people in families were in absolute poverty
Neither of which supported Mr Johnson's claim - which looks to have been incorrect.
What do we mean when we talk about poverty?
Boris Johnson's child poverty claims fact-checked
'I wear a mask wherever the rules say that I should'
Mr Johnson made this comment when asked at a news conference on 15 November 2021 whether he had worn a mask throughout his visit to Hexham Hospital a week before.
But it wasn't true - photographs emerged showing him not wearing one during the visit.
He later apologised, saying he had briefly not been wearing one and had "put it on as soon as I realised I had made that mistake".
'The guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times'
The prime minister was asked in Parliament in December 2021 whether there had been a lockdown-breaking party in Downing Street on 13 November 2020. He responded: "No, but I am sure that whatever happened, the guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times."
The report by civil servant Sue Gray into Downing Street gatherings says there were two that day. Boris Johnson was even photographed at one of them, with at least six other people and bottles of wine.
The prime minister drinking with staff
IMAGE SOURCE, CABINET OFFICE
Image caption,
Boris Johnson pictured at Downing Street gathering on 13 November 2020
At least one person was fined for that event, so it is not true to say that the Covid guidance and rules were followed at all times.
A parliamentary committee is currently investigating whether Mr Johnson deliberately misled MPs about the matter.
Downing Street parties: What Covid rules were broken?
Did Boris Johnson mislead Parliament over parties?
'Proudly restoring the crown stamp on to the side of pint glasses'
This Boris Johnson quote from January 2022 was in a government press release listing the "opportunities of Brexit".
The crown stamp used to be required as a "conformity mark" - something showing that a product conformed with regulations - on British pint glasses. This changed in 2006 when it was replaced by the EU conformity mark CE.
But the quote was misleading. EU rules didn't stop the UK from having a crown stamp on pints before Brexit as a decorative feature (as long as it didn't overlap or become confused with the CE mark). A Conservative MEP even sought and received, external guidance on this matter in 2007.
In June 2022, government guidance, external said crown stamps would not be returning as a conformity mark on pint glasses - that would be the UKCA mark along with an M - but could be used as "a decorative mark only".
Did the EU ban crown marks on pint glasses?
Warm homes discount 'worth £140 per week'
Also in January 2022, Boris Johnson said in Parliament that the government's warm homes discount was "worth £140 per week".
This wasn't true.
It was worth £140 for the whole of the winter, not £140 a week.
Labour's Angela Rayner steps up call for 5% energy bill VAT cut
'More people in work now than before the pandemic began'
In February 2022, Mr Johnson said at Prime Minister's Questions that there were "more people in work now than before the pandemic began".
But that was incorrect - the statistics regulator had criticised him the day before for making this claim on several previous occasions.
Mr Johnson was mixing up the number of people on payrolls, which had gone up, with the number of people in work, which had not. They are not the same thing - the payroll number excludes self-employed people, for example.
Boris Johnson makes incorrect claim on jobs.

Could have cut and pasted more, but it was getting difficult.

[DonnyNoel]

Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html

Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat

The expanison of Fletchers boundaries to include Isle of Axholme muddies these waters for me. I used to work out that way, lots of those villages are serene Tory places. I tend to find people don't change votes unless it massively affects them.

Overall, it's well up in the air. I'm 43 but was well into politics as a kid, the tories have won from behind 8 balls similar to this. I also went to the miners strike march not too long ago. Labour has quite a lot of factions now and if they don't all align it won't be the landslide people are predicting. I do expect Scotland to lean back towards Labour though.

[IDM]

Maybe someone in the know can post Starmers lies?

For balance, I mean.  I don’t know enough to say myself, but if there are any allegations or proven lies, let’s see them for the sake of fairness.??

[tommy toes]

Agree IDM.
Waiting for BB to post some.

[Bentley Bullet]

Where does one start with someone who has shredded just about every principle he once claimed to hold dear?

Mmmmmmmmmmm.

Hey, that's a good start!

[DonnyNoel]

Are you seriously suggesting that Starmer is a bigger liar (if he is a liar at all) than Boris Johnson?
That’s just ridiculous.
I assume your just fishing as nobody with any sense would post such a thing.

Yes, I am. Keir Starmer is a bigger political liar than Boris Johnson.

I'm fairly neutral on all this but that seems a really outlandish statement to make. The parties and the whatsapp stuff for starters, or are you making a point of separating political lies and just being a liar in general?

[DonnyNoel]

Where does one start with someone who has shredded just about every principle he once claimed to hold dear?

Mmmmmmmmmmm.

Hey, that's a good start!

Not really, but go on....

Plus he's never been in power, so changing/tweaking his party's plans in the run up to an election is just campaigning isn't it?

[IDM]

Where does one start with someone who has shredded just about every principle he once claimed to hold dear?

Mmmmmmmmmmm.

Hey, that's a good start!

I was being serious, and I wasn’t having a go at you BB.

But I would like to know what his lies are?

[scawsby steve]

I predict there will be tears at bedtime for some on here come July 4.

Who will that be, Syd?

The only tears I'll shed is if Count Binface loses his deposit.

[Bentley Bullet]

Are you seriously suggesting that Starmer is a bigger liar (if he is a liar at all) than Boris Johnson?
That’s just ridiculous.
I assume your just fishing as nobody with any sense would post such a thing.

Yes, I am. Keir Starmer is a bigger political liar than Boris Johnson.

I'm fairly neutral on all this but that seems a really outlandish statement to make. The parties and the whatsapp stuff for starters, or are you making a point of separating political lies and just being a liar in general?

Where does one start with someone who has shredded just about every principle he once claimed to hold dear?

Mmmmmmmmmmm.

Hey, that's a good start!

I was being serious, and I wasn’t having a go at you BB.

But I would like to know what his lies are?

I said political lies. Anyone of us in the spotlight 24/7 could be accused of saying an off-the-cuff remark that can be construed as a lie.

I'm talking about politicians who go against almost every principle they claim to have had to gain political votes.

Starmer beats Johnson hands down at that.

[IDM]

All politicians do that to some extent.?

[DonnyNoel]

Are you seriously suggesting that Starmer is a bigger liar (if he is a liar at all) than Boris Johnson?
That’s just ridiculous.
I assume your just fishing as nobody with any sense would post such a thing.

Yes, I am. Keir Starmer is a bigger political liar than Boris Johnson.

I'm fairly neutral on all this but that seems a really outlandish statement to make. The parties and the whatsapp stuff for starters, or are you making a point of separating political lies and just being a liar in general?

Where does one start with someone who has shredded just about every principle he once claimed to hold dear?

Mmmmmmmmmmm.

Hey, that's a good start!

I was being serious, and I wasn’t having a go at you BB.

But I would like to know what his lies are?

I said political lies. Anyone of us in the spotlight 24/7 could be accused of saying an off-the-cuff remark that can be construed as a lie.

I'm talking about politicians who go against almost every principle they claim to have had to gain political votes.

Starmer beats Johnson hands down at that.

Well the non-political lies BJ made were much more serious than off the cuff remarks and destroy his integirity both in and beyond politics so I don't accept your quick dismissal of that. Putting that aside I'll be sure to look at the manifesto's when they come out to see where in the political spectrum KS is now positioning labour.

[Bentley Bullet]

Whether you accept my views on this is entirely up to you. 

My point is people keep bringing up Johnson's lies as an excuse for supporting Starmer. My point is, that refusing to acknowledge Starmer's lies means one is simply kidding themself.

[Bentley Bullet]

It was actually. Thanks.

This from BBC verify..
Boris Johnson unveiled the Conservatives' plan to raise the threshold at which people start paying National Insurance contributions while electioneering in November 2019.
He said: "If we're lucky enough to be elected, so the first Budget we will go up to the £9,500 threshold and that will, as I say, put £500 into the pockets of everybody."
But this was incorrect. The Conservatives' own press release said the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 in 2020-21 would be £100 per year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it would be £85 per year.
Has Boris Johnson got National Insurance cut confused?
'There will be no checks on goods going from GB to NI, or NI to GB'
Mr Johnson made this promise about the Brexit deal for Northern Ireland - known as the Protocol - which he negotiated and signed.
But this assertion - in a Sky News interview in December 2019 - was simply not true. It contradicted the terms of his own deal - as we pointed out at the time.
There have indeed been checks on goods from Great Britain (GB) to Northern Ireland (NI) since the Protocol came into force on 31 December 2020. These have led to political problems in Northern Ireland and the government now wants to change the deal.
Northern Ireland Protocol: What did Boris Johnson say?
'There are hundreds of thousands - I think 400,000 - fewer families living in poverty now than there were in 2010'
When we looked into Mr Johnson's claim made in June 2020, we could find nothing in the official poverty statistics to back it up and Downing Street was unable to supply a source for the figure.
The Office of the Children's Commissioner for England, external also examined the claim. Its analysis suggested that between 2010-11 and 2018-19:
800,000 more people in families were in relative poverty
100,000 fewer people in families were in absolute poverty
Neither of which supported Mr Johnson's claim - which looks to have been incorrect.
What do we mean when we talk about poverty?
Boris Johnson's child poverty claims fact-checked
'I wear a mask wherever the rules say that I should'
Mr Johnson made this comment when asked at a news conference on 15 November 2021 whether he had worn a mask throughout his visit to Hexham Hospital a week before.
But it wasn't true - photographs emerged showing him not wearing one during the visit.
He later apologised, saying he had briefly not been wearing one and had "put it on as soon as I realised I had made that mistake".
'The guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times'
The prime minister was asked in Parliament in December 2021 whether there had been a lockdown-breaking party in Downing Street on 13 November 2020. He responded: "No, but I am sure that whatever happened, the guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times."
The report by civil servant Sue Gray into Downing Street gatherings says there were two that day. Boris Johnson was even photographed at one of them, with at least six other people and bottles of wine.
The prime minister drinking with staff
IMAGE SOURCE, CABINET OFFICE
Image caption,
Boris Johnson pictured at Downing Street gathering on 13 November 2020
At least one person was fined for that event, so it is not true to say that the Covid guidance and rules were followed at all times.
A parliamentary committee is currently investigating whether Mr Johnson deliberately misled MPs about the matter.
Downing Street parties: What Covid rules were broken?
Did Boris Johnson mislead Parliament over parties?
'Proudly restoring the crown stamp on to the side of pint glasses'
This Boris Johnson quote from January 2022 was in a government press release listing the "opportunities of Brexit".
The crown stamp used to be required as a "conformity mark" - something showing that a product conformed with regulations - on British pint glasses. This changed in 2006 when it was replaced by the EU conformity mark CE.
But the quote was misleading. EU rules didn't stop the UK from having a crown stamp on pints before Brexit as a decorative feature (as long as it didn't overlap or become confused with the CE mark). A Conservative MEP even sought and received, external guidance on this matter in 2007.
In June 2022, government guidance, external said crown stamps would not be returning as a conformity mark on pint glasses - that would be the UKCA mark along with an M - but could be used as "a decorative mark only".
Did the EU ban crown marks on pint glasses?
Warm homes discount 'worth £140 per week'
Also in January 2022, Boris Johnson said in Parliament that the government's warm homes discount was "worth £140 per week".
This wasn't true.
It was worth £140 for the whole of the winter, not £140 a week.
Labour's Angela Rayner steps up call for 5% energy bill VAT cut
'More people in work now than before the pandemic began'
In February 2022, Mr Johnson said at Prime Minister's Questions that there were "more people in work now than before the pandemic began".
But that was incorrect - the statistics regulator had criticised him the day before for making this claim on several previous occasions.
Mr Johnson was mixing up the number of people on payrolls, which had gone up, with the number of people in work, which had not. They are not the same thing - the payroll number excludes self-employed people, for example.
Boris Johnson makes incorrect claim on jobs.

Could have cut and pasted more, but it was getting difficult.

Political lying began with Boris Johnson. Or at least that’s what British political Twitter has led us to believe. When Johnson was still UK prime minister, we would hear near-daily outbursts from the great and the good about Johnson’s endless ‘lies’. Here was a man who ‘knows a hundred different ways to lie’. A man who ‘lies and lies and lies’. According to one book-length account of Johnson’s fibs, ‘Standards of truth-telling… collapsed at the precise moment Boris Johnson and his associates entered 10 Downing Street in the early afternoon of 24 July 2019’. Apparently, his occasionally misleading statements, his spinning of statistics, amounted to a fully fledged ‘assault on truth’ itself.

Given all this pearl-clutching over the dishonesty of Johnson, often in relation to the sorts of fibs and spin politicians have always indulged in, it is striking just how muted the reaction has been to the even more flagrant deceptions of Sir Keir Starmer. Unlike Johnson, the Labour leader hasn’t simply made a series of bombastic, exaggerated statements – he has shredded just about every principle he once claimed to hold dear.

This week, Starmer admitted on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that he will abandon his pledge to scrap university tuition fees – a promise he made to the Labour membership in 2020. Other pledges he has jettisoned from his Labour leadership campaign include nationalising the utilities firms, increasing income tax on high earners, keeping freedom of movement with the EU and banning outsourcing in the NHS.


Even before Starmer became Labour leader, his flip-flopping over Brexit was shameless in the extreme. After the Leave vote and before the 2017 election, Starmer said that Brexit needed to happen as a ‘matter of principle’. It wasn’t long before that principle was betrayed and he became a leading cheerleader for a second referendum. Now that he is Labour leader he has pledged to ‘make Brexit work’ – a promise so empty that neither Leavers nor Rejoiners can really trust it.

Of course, Starmer claims that he has not abandoned these pledges at all. According to him, he has merely ‘adapted’ these positions to suit today’s straightened economic climate. This is nonsense, of course. Not least because many of Starmer’s about-turns have been over culture-war issues, which have precious little to do with taxing and spending.

Take his flip-flopping on transgenderism. At times, he’s been a strident supporter of the trans movement. In 2020, he committed Labour to introducing gender self-identification. In 2021, he admonished gender-critical feminists who say that ‘only women have a cervix’. But then, last month, in an apparent concession to biological reality, he said that ‘99.9 per cent of women haven’t got a penis’. He also promised that there would be no ‘rolling back’ of women’s sex-based rights under a Labour government. Although Starmer has left open the bizarre possibility of one in 1,000 women having penises, this is still 1,000 miles away from his earlier trans-rights pledges.

Starmer has been just as inconsistent on the big protest movements of our time. He took the knee for Black Lives Matter in early June 2020, only to dismiss its signature demand to ‘defund the police’ a few weeks later. As for Extinction Rebellion and other road-blocking green activists, he was singing their praises back in 2019. ‘Climate change is the issue of our time, and as the Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation is not going to forgive us if we don’t take action’, he said. Since becoming Labour leader, he’s been calling for more eco-activists to be arrested and to face longer jail time.

The about-turns are dizzying. They are not just everyday untruths. Imagine if Boris had campaigned to Get Brexit Done, and instead took us into the Euro. That is the level of political deception Keir has stooped to. So where is all the anger from the chattering classes?

Could have copied and pasted more, but couldn't be arsed.

[IDM]

Ok, that’s your spin on it.

However I would think most folks can see a difference between changing your views to match the (changing) political situation and to gain votes, and that of downright fibs.?

The first is politicking, and individuals can decide how much or how little importance they put on it.  Are they abandoning principles or reacting to developing political realities?

And then there are outright I wasn’t there it wasn’t me lies, subsequently proven to be false.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB appears to be having his usual problem here.

He cannot or will not understand the difference between:

1) A politician who changes policies.
and
2) A man who has lied about pretty much every objective fact that ever got in his way, from bendy bananas to the text of the Withdrawal Agreement that he himself signed.

If you are determined to both sides stuff, you can convince yourself these are equivalent.

Trouble is, you make yourself look absolutely stupid.

[Bentley Bullet]

Ok, that’s your spin on it.

However I would think most folks can see a difference between changing your views to match the (changing) political situation and to gain votes, and that of downright fibs.?

The first is politicking, and individuals can decide how much or how little importance they put on it.  Are they abandoning principles or reacting to developing political realities?

And then there are outright I wasn’t there it wasn’t me lies, subsequently proven to be false.

Some Labour supporters actually want Starmer to turn his back on the manifesto that gets him into power, for a more left-wing approach.

That in my opinion is not carrying out what is promised, but unbelievably is supported by some of those who wanted a re-vote when they claimed the same thing had happened after Brexit!

[Bentley Bullet]

.... And BST goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on, supporting his great leader in the only possible way he can...................... By saying Boris lies, Starmer makes mistakes!

This is grown-up politics, folks!