BST points prediction thread…

[DonnyBazR0ver]

The statistical points projection has slightly condensed after yesterday.

1. Walsall            89.95
2. Bradford          85.04
3. Port Vale         81.63
4. Wimbledon     81.44
5. Rovers             80.68
6. Notts Co         78.96
7. Grimsby          72.85

A team on the march at the mo (other than Bradford) is Swindon on 44 points, currently projected to get 61.06 pts, but worth remembering we were on a mere 39 points at the same stage last season. Our match up with them at home next week will also be a good marker.

No way in a million years are Walsall getting 23 points from their final 12 games.

Unlikely, but what were we saying this time last season? Funny old game.

[drfchound]

The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.

[Avsuptem]

Based on recent performances we can say that it has clicked now. Which means we should be good for 85 points, that would surely be enough.
Alan Southstand, please put my pound on the slate.

[Colemans Left Hook]

The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.

B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is

it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)   

If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside.  and be "pulled up" lame    -  the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday 

Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is   but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.

AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home  (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )

and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten
 

[IDM]

The most important game is ours, always is, end of.

If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?

[Iberian Red]

The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.

B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is

it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)   

If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside.  and be "pulled up" lame    -  the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday 

Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is   but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.

AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home  (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )

and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten

Did a cuckoo just fly over?

[Colemans Left Hook]

The most important game is ours, always is, end of.

If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?

the well used phrase "You must be fun at parties " deserves another outing 

Perhaps your "Labour of Love" ? 

[Usher wide.]

The most important game is ours, always is, end of.

If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?

the well used phrase "You must be fun at parties " deserves another outing 

Perhaps your "Labour of Love" ? 

Order, order….

[IDM]

The most important game is ours, always is, end of.

If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?

the well used phrase "You must be fun at parties " deserves another outing 

Perhaps your "Labour of Love" ? 

Grow up.

[i_ateallthepies]

Bit late for that, IDM

[IDM]

Back on topic, let's see how this prediction looks after tonight's games.

My gut is the points required for each position will drop slightly.

[colincramb]

Back on topic, let's see how this prediction looks after tonight's games.

My gut is the points required for each position will drop slightly.

Any reason why in particular? I think on balance, our direct competitors for third probably have easier games tonight than we do. You can never been certain in football, but I’d be surprised if many of them (Walsall, AFC, Bradford, county, vale) drop points tonight.

[IDM]

Not really, I can just see points being dropped..

[colincramb]

Hope you are right and that we can put another performance in to take home 3 points.

[BillyStubbsTears]

For all the dominance of possession tonight, that's yet another defeat against a top 10 side.

It's now 128 days since we beat a side in the top 10, and 107 days since we took a point off one.

[dickos1]

Tonight’s dominance had nothing to do with possession, it was dominant in every way other than the most important bit.
Keep playing like that and we will get the 2 points a game and comfortably finish in the top 3, and I’ll win our bet

[drfchound]

The points predictor will have decreased after tonight’s results then I assume.

[drfchound]

Tonight’s dominance had nothing to do with possession, it was dominant in every way other than the most important bit.
Keep playing like that and we will get the 2 points a game and comfortably finish in the top 3, and I’ll win our bet

So that’s seven wins in the last eleven games, making it 21 points from them.
One short of two points per game.
Just one point short of target.
After our recent change to a more direct style of play we have upped our points gathering and as Dickos says, keep that up and we should get promoted.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Walsall 87
Bradford 85
Port Vale 79
Rovers     79
Wimbledon 78

Anything can happen and probably will. Big game Saturday.

[dickos1]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

Are you still confident 84 points wouldn’t get us 4th place billy?

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Walsall 87
Bradford 85
Port Vale 79
Rovers     79
Wimbledon 78

Anything can happen and probably will. Big game Saturday.

Sorry, just to clarify, that's the statistical points projection based on PPG taking into account remaining opponents PPG.

[In the box]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We are under strength upfront in comparison to last season . It’s been a lot poor displays at home and this has been the most frustrating part . With exception of Bromley away , every game we’ve lost so far were fair result and we’ve showed we can compete in games but seldom have we took teams to the cleaners. IMO there’s  still plenty to play for but unless Ironside and Sharp suddenly start banging the goals in , it’s looking the play offs again and this time it’s all our own doing by not sorting the where the goals are coming from sooner . Let’s hope we don’t meet Bromely again along the way 

[dickos1]

Scoring goals isn’t an issue though, we’re the 3rd highest scorers in the league. Tonight it was obviously, but over the season so far scoring goals hasn’t been our issue

[TheFunk]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

[Ryaldinhio]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

Statistically and actually.

He was on loan at Bromley last yr and their first choice kept him down to 1 performance. Their keeper made 7 saves tonight for a clean sheet, ours made none for a 1.0 loss.

Been saying it for months.

He is not a good keeper.

[TheFunk]

Basically a shot on target against us is a goal. His save percentage figures are dreadful.

[Ryaldinhio]

Basically a shot on target against us is a goal. His save percentage figures are dreadful.

Totally agree

[Colemans Left Hook]

The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.

B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is

it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)   

If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside.  and be "pulled up" lame    -  the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday 

Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is   but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.

AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home  (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )

and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten

the bloke on Sky sports was saying that TOP Walsall failing to beat BOTTOM Carlisle was a shock - as I said  the most important match was the Carlisle match

from Walsall's point of view they lost 2 points to Bradford gained 1 point on ROvers Notts County & Wimbledon and stayed the same with P Vale - Technically they strengthened their Promotion chance   BUT THEY ARE TOTALLY OUT OF FORM - THEY GOT OFF VERY LIGHTLY LAST NIGHT -

TO REPEAT everyone bar Bradford can argue they got off lightly.  And Bradford  made "Quantum Progress -   We had 6 matches 1 winner 2 draws and 3 very unlikely defeats consequently filling the bookies satchels.

It was ironic that as the these matches were concluding over in New York  just after 9p.m GMT  .. The worlds biggest bookmaker which is British in inverted commas was announcing it's 2024 full year results --

Ladbrokes/Corals owners report Thursday 

[DonnyOsmond]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

Shhh you're not allowed to criticise TSL.

 He wasn't the issue last night though.

Our xGA is currently 3rd lowest (which is a compliment to our defence), and it's very close between those 3, Wimbledon were the best by a distance but they've turned average recently. Wouldn't be surprised if we had the lowest xGA by the end of the season. However, then to actually have a mid table goals conceded record is alarming.

We're third for xG over the season too. For xPoints we're 2nd and we could potentially end up 1st with how Walsall are going. Bradford have been over performing their numbers.

[ncRover]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.

Everything else he’s better than most in this league.

Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.