BST points prediction thread…

[GazLaz]

I think our run in is a difficult one. Lots of top half teams.

[ncRover]

Bookies now have us 5th favourites for promotion

[pib]

Brilliant result for Bradford last night. On current form they will take some stopping and could win the whole thing if they find consistency away from home.

Looking at all the analysis I'm going to predict we'll need something in between BST's model and the "PPG extrapolated to the end of the season" model, given the form of us and the sides we're battling with, so something around 82-84 points.

24-26 points from 13 games required, so near enough title form. 8 wins from 13, or 7 wins and a fair few draws. A big ask no doubt, but not beyond the realms of possibility. It will require a decent uplift vs season-to-date PPG performance though.

Some points will be more equal than others though. If three of those wins come against Wimbledon, Bradford and Notts County, we'll have a much better chance than if they're picked up in other games but we drop points against those three. They're massive games.

[dickos1]

Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.

True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.

Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that

If they keep on picking up 1.5 ppg, Walsall will end up with 87 points.

Given goal difference, to top that we'd need 2.3 ppg from now to the end of the season. That'd mean we'd have picked up 51 points in the 2nd half of the season
Might change, but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good.

“but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good”

How many times did you say this last season though Billy?

[colincramb]

Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.

True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.

Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that

If they keep on picking up 1.5 ppg, Walsall will end up with 87 points.

Given goal difference, to top that we'd need 2.3 ppg from now to the end of the season. That'd mean we'd have picked up 51 points in the 2nd half of the season
Might change, but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good.

“but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good”

How many times did you say this last season though Billy?

It’s not last season, is it dickos ffs. He’s making a comment based on THIS season’s performances. You can understand that, can’t you?

[andy didcott]

One thing for sure, looks like it’s gonna be an exciting end to the season, come on rovers let’s go on another good run.

[Chris Black come back]

Also the games in hand aren’t taken for several weeks yet I see. That’s going to be an added uncertainty.

[dickos1]

Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.

True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.

Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that

If they keep on picking up 1.5 ppg, Walsall will end up with 87 points.

Given goal difference, to top that we'd need 2.3 ppg from now to the end of the season. That'd mean we'd have picked up 51 points in the 2nd half of the season
Might change, but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good.

“but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good”

How many times did you say this last season though Billy?

It’s not last season, is it dickos ffs. He’s making a comment based on THIS season’s performances. You can understand that, can’t you?

And last seasons performances were far worse but we all saw what happened.
Just pointing out that things change, teams improve, teams drop off as Crewe did last season. That kind of thing happens every season, you can understand that can’t you?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes Dickos, but you cannot EXPECT that to happen. Last season was a once a century turn round. We ALL want that to happen, but on average, any team is as likely to have worse form in the run in as they are to have better form.

In 22/23, at this time of the season, you were saying that if we improved we could still make the playoffs. We didn't. We got much worse. That's the balance.

[Alan Southstand]

The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.

[Copps is Magic]

The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.

We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.

We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.

And that's great

But every one of those was against sides outside the top 10 when we played them.

We haven't beaten a side in the top 10 in over 4 months. In fact we haven't taken a point off a side in the top 10 since mid-Nov. And 7 of our last 13 games are against sides currently in the top 10.

It's bleeding obvious that we have to improve significantly to make the top 3. Not just a little improvement and a bit of luck here and there.

[colincramb]

The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.

We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.

And that's great

But every one of those was against sides outside the top 10 when we played them.

We haven't beaten a side in the top 10 in over 4 months. In fact we haven't taken a point off a side in the top 10 since mid-Nov. And 7 of our last 13 games are against sides currently in the top 10.

It's bleeding obvious that we have to improve significantly to make the top 3. Not just a little improvement and a bit of luck here and there.

See this is what worries me when I look at our remaining fixtures. It makes games like today even more important to bag the 3 points, whilst hoping that one or more of the others slips up.

Based on our recent home performances though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us drop 2 points today.

[Chris Black come back]

In some respects, this is among the most important games of the season. We are now in March, on the run in, know the task ahead. We are playing an opponent that has injury and suspension issues. It's a game that any promotion hunting side should be looking forward to optimistically. If we can't get up for this game and find a way to win, you do wonder what we can pull out of the bag for the remainder of the season.

[Copps is Magic]

The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.

We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.

And that's great

But every one of those was against sides outside the top 10 when we played them.

We haven't beaten a side in the top 10 in over 4 months. In fact we haven't taken a point off a side in the top 10 since mid-Nov. And 7 of our last 13 games are against sides currently in the top 10.

It's bleeding obvious that we have to improve significantly to make the top 3. Not just a little improvement and a bit of luck here and there.

I was responding to Alan's point that we don't have momentum. 7 from 10 is by most measures, momentum. It's hard to change who you play - it's a fixed variable.

As for making predictions about what's going to happen from now until the end of the season, I think the odds of several scenarios happening are barely distinguishable from each other currently, and a knats cock of variance is going to change the picture week by week. I certainly don't know how you've come to the conclusion that we need 'significant improvements' for automatic. For me, it's reasonably conceivable we could actually play slightly worse and still get promoted.

A lot of over-analysis going on.

[Usher wide.]

We need more performances & results at home like Accrington & Tranmere & no more performances & results like Bromley & Grimsby.

It has to start today, the first day of March. We’re now into ‘the run in’ where the teams who finish in the automatic places deserve to be there.

We concentrate on winning, not drawing, winning every game we play from now until May.

Analysing the fixtures won’t win us them. Playing them to the very best of our abilities might.

I shall be concentrating on the latter.

[ncRover]

Sarcevic off injured for Bradford

[Colemans Left Hook]

Sarcevic off injured for Bradford

some other Bradford player off injured as well  ---  not watching that match but he is Mr Bradford just as George Byas is Mr POrt Vale

just backed bradford at 12/1 to win this match !!

[Chris Black come back]

Salford one up. Adelakun with the assist.

[Chris Black come back]

Port Vale struggled to a 1-1 with Tranmere. Bradford got last minute winner at Salford. That’s a bit unfortunate.

[Colemans Left Hook]

Sarcevic off injured for Bradford

some other Bradford player off injured as well  ---  not watching that match but he is Mr Bradford just as George Byas is Mr POrt Vale

just backed bradford at 12/1 to win this match !!

Guess who backed a 12/1 winner backed Bradford when they were 1-0 down 

[Copps is Magic]

Port Vale struggled to a 1-1 with Tranmere. Bradford got last minute winner at Salford. That’s a bit unfortunate.

Is it? I looked at it more like two of the chasing pack (Salford and Vale) dropped points.

[Filo]

Looking forward to the update

[dickos1]

If today told u anything then it told u that anyone can take points from anyone. So to keep spouting the narrative about only playing teams in the bottom half etc etc is just nonsense

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

Update
1st place: 90 93
2nd 89 90
3rd 88 88
4th 85 83
5th 85 81
6th 82 79
7th 75 74
8th 70 72
9th 69 71
10th 65 67

[BillyStubbsTears]

For what it's worth, I really cannot believe those top three points totals will all come to pass. They are based on the fact that the three sides in positions 2-4 currently all have an excellent ppg over the last 10 games (Bradford 2.5, us 2.4, Notts C 2.3).  I'll be  amazed if all three clubs maintain that to the end of the season.

[idler]

City play Notts County two games before they play us so somebody will be dropping points in those games.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

The statistical points projection has slightly condensed after yesterday.

1. Walsall            89.95
2. Bradford          85.04
3. Port Vale         81.63
4. Wimbledon     81.44
5. Rovers             80.68
6. Notts Co         78.96
7. Grimsby          72.85

A team on the march at the mo (other than Bradford) is Swindon on 44 points, currently projected to get 61.06 pts, but worth remembering we were on a mere 39 points at the same stage last season. Our match up with them at home next week will also be a good marker.

[DonnyOsmond]

Yeah most have Port Vale, Notts County, Rovers and Wimbledon within a point or two. Crazy tight.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The statistical points projection has slightly condensed after yesterday.

1. Walsall            89.95
2. Bradford          85.04
3. Port Vale         81.63
4. Wimbledon     81.44
5. Rovers             80.68
6. Notts Co         78.96
7. Grimsby          72.85

A team on the march at the mo (other than Bradford) is Swindon on 44 points, currently projected to get 61.06 pts, but worth remembering we were on a mere 39 points at the same stage last season. Our match up with them at home next week will also be a good marker.

No way in a million years are Walsall getting 23 points from their final 12 games.