Promotion race

[drfchound]

BST, your point is well made, and backed up, albeit slightly less dramatically if we take the whole seasons' results and look at the current 11 other top half clubs and the 12 bottom clubs as they now stand in the table. A team's position when we play them might be influenced by games in hand, current form, injuries and suspensions of key players etc, so there is a bit more consistency looking over the whole season with the current table where for the first time in months everyone has played the same number of games..

In that case against the other 11 top half teams our record has been W4, D9, L6, equivalent to 51 points in a season

Against the bottom 12 teams it is W16, D3, L4 for 102 points in a season

Yes we have been flat track bullies against lower teams, but our results against top half teams have been significantly better than 29 points a season.

Also, less analytically, I feel we have been very unfortunate in some matches (e.g. Crewe away, Colchester away), so maybe we will have more of lady luck's influence in the last 4 matches - we are going to need it.     

Good figures from someone at last Dutch.
I get where bst is coming from but he has moved the goalposts with his figures a couple of times, probably to try to make his numbers add up to what he wants them to.
I agree also that we need some luck of the good type, they say thing even out over a league season so perhaps a couple of penalties will be awarded to us and maybe shots will go in off the post instead of coming back into play off the post.

Tbf Hound, BST was making the good point that we have done worse against top teams in the second half of the season, suggesting they have worked out how best to play against us. I just looked at the season as a whole.

Yes, I’m aware of that Dutch, it’s just that your figures give a truer reflection, over the whole season.
Walsalls numbers over the whole season have them in third place but their figures over the last half a season would have them nowhere near third place.
The league season is 46 matches, not 23.

[dickos1]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

We’re not joint third, we are fourth

I suppose that’s a typical doncaster rovers fan way of looking at it,
We’re actually both

Either way I know for a fact all you lot moaning would’ve been the ones snapping my hand off if if offered what we are now with 4 games to go

If today was the last day of the season we are 4th.  That's all there is to it. You are away with the fairies. Facts are facts.

Dear me
I’ve had to explain 3 times now, I’m not talking about at the end of the season, talking about now

And we are still fourth now, look at the table its there in black and white

Yep and on the same points as 3rd place with 4 games to go!
Jesus you lot are hard work

The table shows we have the same number of points as 3rd place, but have an inferior goal difference so we're 4th. I tend to believe what the table says, Doncaster Rovers 4th.

Ah so you agree then that we’re level on points with 3rd and 4 points off the top
Would you have been happy with that back in August?

[i_ateallthepies]

Just a point that should be made here.
When we were third but several teams had games in hand, there were plenty of posters on here saying “we aren’t really third, if so and so win their games in hand they will go above us”.

The very obvious difference, Hound, which you're choosing to ignore is that there are presently no games in hand.  Everyone has played 42 games, therefore your point is moot.

[Lesonthewest]

It's nothing to do with agreeing with anything, the facts are there. Why wouldn't I be happy with being in that position in August, how very strange. Would you be happy being in that position in May?

[dickos1]

It's nothing to do with agreeing with anything, the facts are there. Why wouldn't I be happy with being in that position in August, how very strange. Would you be happy being in that position in May?

Think you’re getting confused!
Would you have been happy where we are now with 4 games to go if offered it back in August

[Michael Shaw]

It's nothing to do with agreeing with anything, the facts are there. Why wouldn't I be happy with being in that position in August, how very strange. Would you be happy being in that position in May?

Think you’re getting confused!
Would you have been happy where we are now with 4 games to go if offered it back in August

To answer your question dickos, NO!.

In August we were promised by McCann that we were going for the title, so at this point back in August I would have expected us to be certain of a top 3 slot.  Not now wondering if we can make it.

[Michael Shaw]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

[Smyth]

It's nothing to do with agreeing with anything, the facts are there. Why wouldn't I be happy with being in that position in August, how very strange. Would you be happy being in that position in May?

Think you’re getting confused!
Would you have been happy where we are now with 4 games to go if offered it back in August

What would McCann have replied when he said at the end of last season "don't come back if you're not prepared to win the league" to a player who said "nah not me, when it gets to April I'll be happy with a playoff  spot"?
Extended his contract probably,  especially if that player had no contribution to any success last season

[dickos1]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

You don’t half talk a lot of rubbish, we’re 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go.
Bradford have tougher fixtures than us and Walsall haven’t won a game in 10.
Nothing you write makes sense, and has no rationale attached whatsoever

[Ian Nimmo]

Yes we should, but to be fair some of us have been concerned for a good while now.
My main concern is that we went out and got Street and in the main ditched Ironside and Sharpe, for the sake of playing two wide players, one of whom has for the most been unproductive.
Thus we haven’t scored enough when needed particularly at home, playing two centrally I believe would have given moly more support, the opposing centre backs would have been kept busy instead of having the luxury of been able to get 2/3 men on him.
Of course the injury jinx has returned at an unbelievable wrong time, but our poor performance at home started way before this.

This is not being negative just stating my views, which have been consistent now for a few months.

[Michael Shaw]

Obviously you're not concerned, Dickos, but that doesn't mean everyone else shouldn't be. We all have a right to our own opinion without constantly being told we are talking rubbish.

Maybe most of us are more realistic as we are chasing an auto slot and not in one.

As I keep saying, 3 weeks from now and we will know.

[Michael Shaw]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

You don’t half talk a lot of rubbish, we’re 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go.
Bradford have tougher fixtures than us and Walsall haven’t won a game in 10.
Nothing you write makes sense, and has no rationale attached whatsoever

You are plain nasty as always with no consideration for anyone else's option. This is supposed to be an open forum for everyone to express their views whether or not you agree with them.

[normal rules]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

I don’t think this is the case. Port vale have to go to Carlisle . Carlisle have won 3 of their last 6 and are 10th in the last 6 form . Bradford have a tough game tonight at county and reportedly have a bug running thru their squad and a red card in
Last game for a key player. Walsall host Harrogate who are better than them also in last 6 form. And that just tomorrow . Then on Monday PV host cod heads. And they have really turned things around chomping for a playoff slot themselves. Bradford go to chesterfield . Another team with a chance of a po slot with considerably better last 6 form than Bradford. So to say these teams have easier games is not right imo

[Bessie Red]

Yes we should, but to be fair some of us have been concerned for a good while now.
My main concern is that we went out and got Street and in the main ditched Ironside and Sharpe, for the sake of playing two wide players, one of whom has for the most been unproductive.
Thus we haven’t scored enough when needed particularly at home, playing two centrally I believe would have given moly more support, the opposing centre backs would have been kept busy instead of having the luxury of been able to get 2/3 men on him.
Of course the injury jinx has returned at an unbelievable wrong time, but our poor performance at home started way before this.

This is not being negative just stating my views, which have been consistent now for a few months.

Only Walsall, Chesterfield & Swindon have scored more league goals than us. It's not the attacking side that is the problem it's the amount of poor goals that we concede that has prevented us from walking this league.

[Avsuptem]

It's the recent games when we have snatched draws from the jaws of wins that I find most irksome. If we had had a bit better treatment from Lady Luck we would be sitting pretty now and the gloom purveyors would be silenced.

[IDM]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

Bradford can’t win all their games if we beat them..

[Filo]

Well if things even themselves out over a season we should be getting half a dozen penalty’s in the remaining games

[TonySoprano]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

You don’t half talk a lot of rubbish, we’re 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go.
Bradford have tougher fixtures than us and Walsall haven’t won a game in 10.
Nothing you write makes sense, and has no rationale attached whatsoever

It doesn't make you a better fan by refusing to admit that we will struggle to finish 3rd.

[dickos1]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

You don’t half talk a lot of rubbish, we’re 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go.
Bradford have tougher fixtures than us and Walsall haven’t won a game in 10.
Nothing you write makes sense, and has no rationale attached whatsoever

It doesn't make you a better fan by refusing to admit that we will struggle to finish 3rd.

Why will we struggle?
By your logic everyone who is the race is going to struggle

[TonySoprano]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

You don’t half talk a lot of rubbish, we’re 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go.
Bradford have tougher fixtures than us and Walsall haven’t won a game in 10.
Nothing you write makes sense, and has no rationale attached whatsoever

It doesn't make you a better fan by refusing to admit that we will struggle to finish 3rd.

Why will we struggle?
By your logic everyone who is the race is going to struggle

Wrong, I can see how we are playing, and the players we have injured, and who we have to play.
It doesn't make you less of a fan by recognising this.

[The Dav]

At the start of the season I had £20 at 11/4 for us to land a top 3 spot, they’re offering me £39.24 to cash out now ! Clearly the bookies still fancy us !

[BillyStubbsTears]

BST, your point is well made, and backed up, albeit slightly less dramatically if we take the whole seasons' results and look at the current 11 other top half clubs and the 12 bottom clubs as they now stand in the table. A team's position when we play them might be influenced by games in hand, current form, injuries and suspensions of key players etc, so there is a bit more consistency looking over the whole season with the current table where for the first time in months everyone has played the same number of games..

In that case against the other 11 top half teams our record has been W4, D9, L6, equivalent to 51 points in a season

Against the bottom 12 teams it is W16, D3, L4 for 102 points in a season

Yes we have been flat track bullies against lower teams, but our results against top half teams have been significantly better than 29 points a season.

Also, less analytically, I feel we have been very unfortunate in some matches (e.g. Crewe away, Colchester away), so maybe we will have more of lady luck's influence in the last 4 matches - we are going to need it.     

Good figures from someone at last Dutch.
I get where bst is coming from but he has moved the goalposts with his figures a couple of times, probably to try to make his numbers add up to what he wants them to.
I agree also that we need some luck of the good type, they say thing even out over a league season so perhaps a couple of penalties will be awarded to us and maybe shots will go in off the post instead of coming back into play off the post.

Tbf Hound, BST was making the good point that we have done worse against top teams in the second half of the season, suggesting they have worked out how best to play against us. I just looked at the season as a whole.

Thanks for pointing out my point DU.

I'm baffled over what Hound is on about when he says I've "moved the goalposts" but then he has spent years insisting I'm a hypocrite who argues from a position of bad faith, and it's much healthier just to have him on Ignore these days.

For the record, I have generally noted, as you say, that I think we were excellent at the start of the season, but got sussed sometimes back in the autumn, and we haven't been nearly as effective since then.

As a result, it doesn't really matter which metric you look at, the answer is always the same. We are generally very, very effective against weaker sides and really not very effective against better sides.

Doesn't matter whether you divide "better" and "weaker" as "Top 10 Vs bottom 14" or "Top half Vs Bottom half".

It does matter whether you look at the entire season or the most recent 6 months.

The big picture is broadly the same. The difference is that looking in more granularity offers possible insights.

But doubtless Hound will continue in his depressung certainty that I'm just "moving the goalposts".

[Pancho Regan]

As we enter the final stretch, points won out of 12 for the last 4 games by the top 7 teams:

Port Vale:     12
Grimsby:       7
Rovers:         6
Wimbledon:    5
Notts County: 4
Bradford:       4
Walsall:         2

[dickos1]

The top 3 have an easier last 4 games than Rovers and I expect most will acknowledge that. So logically they have more of a chance than us of picking up more of those 12 points than us. That still leaves us 4th. We rely on one of the top 3 having a worse run than us, but the fixtures suggest otherwise.
 
Shouldn't we all be concerned?

You don’t half talk a lot of rubbish, we’re 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go.
Bradford have tougher fixtures than us and Walsall haven’t won a game in 10.
Nothing you write makes sense, and has no rationale attached whatsoever

It doesn't make you a better fan by refusing to admit that we will struggle to finish 3rd.

Why will we struggle?
By your logic everyone who is the race is going to struggle

Wrong, I can see how we are playing, and the players we have injured, and who we have to play.
It doesn't make you less of a fan by recognising this.

But you’re not looking at how the others are playing!
Or who they’ve got to play

[Chris Black come back]

Nobody knows how this is going to turn out but there is a reasonably feasible scenario where we don't have to deliver a huge amount of points to go up. We probably just need to overtake a Walsall in freefall to get the final space and make sure we can just keep ahead of AFC Wimbledon. Port Vale are already up and Bradford City could even beat us and it wouldn't matter that much. It feels like we are likely now playing against Walsall and AFC Wimbledon to get the final spot. Doesn't matter so much what Port Vale and maybe even Bradford City do now.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Carlisle will beat Port Vale, that will help.

[dickos1]

Nobody knows how this is going to turn out but there is a reasonably feasible scenario where we don't have to deliver a huge amount of points to go up. We probably just need to overtake a Walsall in freefall to get the final space and make sure we can just keep ahead of AFC Wimbledon. Port Vale are already up and Bradford City could even beat us and it wouldn't matter that much. It feels like we are likely now playing against Walsall and AFC Wimbledon to get the final spot. Doesn't matter so much what Port Vale and maybe even Bradford City do now.

Madness to suggest Bradford are out of reach, they’re in very poor form and were 2 points behind with a game in hand and have to play them at home. Their away record is relegation material

[DonnyOsmond]

Nobody knows how this is going to turn out but there is a reasonably feasible scenario where we don't have to deliver a huge amount of points to go up. We probably just need to overtake a Walsall in freefall to get the final space and make sure we can just keep ahead of AFC Wimbledon. Port Vale are already up and Bradford City could even beat us and it wouldn't matter that much. It feels like we are likely now playing against Walsall and AFC Wimbledon to get the final spot. Doesn't matter so much what Port Vale and maybe even Bradford City do now.

Madness to suggest Bradford are out of reach, they’re in very poor form and were 2 points behind with a game in hand and have to play them at home. Their away record is relegation material

14th isn't relegation mate.

[StocksArmy]

I can’t take any more of this topsy turvy realm of emotions that this run in is putting us through.

I have told the wife I would miss today and I feel the few hours out shopping will settle me down before kick off. We can’t keep allowing these opportunities pass us by. Get the win by however means necessary. COME ON!!!

[Avsuptem]

I can’t take any more of this topsy turvy realm of emotions that this run in is putting us through.

I have told the wife I would miss today and I feel the few hours out shopping will settle me down before kick off. We can’t keep allowing these opportunities pass us by. Get the win by however means necessary. COME ON!!!

I know that feeling. It's losing the lead and only drawing the game thus missing the chance to go into the autos that has done my head in recently. Pray not again today.