Promotion race

[colincramb]

We can obviously still do it, but like others I’m a bit concerned with how we are playing and the fatigue that is rapidly setting in. I would imagine we have players very close to the red zone, so I think further injuries are inevitable.
As I said last night, I think a win on Friday is an absolute must to keep the pressure on the others. Anything less and I would expect there might be too much to do, but that obviously depends on others results.

[pib]

We are now 11th in the 8-game form table, winning 2, drawing 5.

We are obviously very competitive and hard to beat, but we are now drawing too many games at the crucial point of the season and don't seem to have the quality and guile to win these tight games.

If we repeat our last 8 form over the next 4 we will get between 5-6 points. That's unlikely to be enough.

[dickos1]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

[Filo]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

We’re not joint third, we are fourth

[dickos1]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

We’re not joint third, we are fourth

I suppose that’s a typical doncaster rovers fan way of looking at it,
We’re actually both

Either way I know for a fact all you lot moaning would’ve been the ones snapping my hand off if if offered what we are now with 4 games to go

[Filo]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

We’re not joint third, we are fourth

I suppose that’s a typical doncaster rovers fan way of looking at it,
We’re actually both

Either way I know for a fact all you lot moaning would’ve been the ones snapping my hand off if if offered what we are now with 4 games to go

It’s factual, if the season ended today we would finish fourth, no matter how you try to spin it

[dickos1]

Of course but we’re not talking about the season being ended are we! There’s 4 games to go and we are joint 3rd. Both are facts but I suppose it’s just the type of person you are which way you look at it

[pib]

There’s no such thing as joint third though is there? If two teams are level on points, they are separated by other statistics. The league don’t just go “oh you’re joint 3rd so share it between you lads”

We are fourth.

[In the box]

Rovers
Salford win
Tranmere win
Colchester win
Bradford win
Notts County draw

Port Vale
Carlisle Lose
Grimsby win
Wimbledon draw
Gillingham win

Bradford
Notts County draw
Chesterfield win
Rovers Lose
Fleetwood win

Walsall
Harrogate draw
Newport lose
Accrington win
Crewe win

Wimbledon
Chesterfield win
Gillingham win
Port Vale draw
Grimsby lose

Notts County
Bradford draw
Cheltenham win
Harrogate lose
Rovers draw


1 Rovers 84
2 Port Vale 83
3 Bradford 80
4 Walsall 79
5 Wimbledon 76
6 Notts County 73

I see us pipping Port Vale by a point. I know it seems optimistic going by performances, I just think we can grind the results out that are needed.
How do you see it going?

I hope you didn’t put your house in this 

[normal rules]

It’s the time of the season where ppg stats can be revealing. And so, just focussing on the top 4 here’s the ppg over the season to date .

PV 1.809ppg
Bradford 1.738ppg
Walsall 1.714 ppg
Rovers 1.714 ppg


Look closer though at the ppg for the last 6 games

PV 2.5 ppg
Brad 1.16ppg
Rovers 1.666 ppg
Walsall 0.66 ppg.

Pv have hit form just at the right time . Rovers are marking time with a ppg of a win one lose one basis almost, with Bradford lagging just behind them form wise. Walsall have fallen off a cliff .

[dickos1]

There’s no such thing as joint third though is there? If two teams are level on points, they are separated by other statistics. The league don’t just go “oh you’re joint 3rd so share it between you lads”

We are fourth.

Not talking about the season ending, talking about before the season started, would all the moaners have taken being level on points with 3rd and 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
Of course they would

[Plumbster]

Tbh back in August I was hoping/expecting that we would be doing a Stockport and were comfortably on track for the autos all season, with a core of players and an attractive playing style that would likely succeed in L1. That was on the back of a strong finish last season, a great manager and what looked like good backing. That expectation has led to frustration for me, and no doubt others, because it felt at times like players were underperforming or the tactics weren’t right. Whilst it hasn’t been pretty,  the more the season has gone on the more I feel that Grant has got as much as he can out of this group of players and we have done well to stay in touch with the autos- we don’t have many stars but we are very competitive against anyone, we can produce quality at times, and there is a great spirit.  Now is the time to really get behind them because we can make a difference when the margins are so tight- judging from last night I think that’s how most fans are thinking. Players like Gibson in particular need to feel loved to produce their best.

[Fal]

I have to think that yesterday wasnt the preferred date for this fixture? Seems madness to want us to play 4 games in 9 days, like most im worried about the fatigue and the fact that we are losing players left and right at the minute it seems.

[McCammon egg n chips]

Let's get this straight, it's not the fans who have bigged up expectations - it was GM in the pre-season who said he expects us to be fighting for the title.

We've been well under that all season. Most of our fans are judging success on his yard stick; automatic promotion and fighting for the title.

So it's understandable we're all getting frustrated now we're stumbling to the finish line. The run in is tough, we've got injuries, the massive squad not making a blind bit of difference, and game after game it's the same tactics that aren't really working. Run it down the wing. f**k about, take the ball too far. Hope Moly will come up with some magic. Subs around 75 mins to go all out attack in the hope of a late winner.

It's not a strategy and whether we go up or stay down, it's given me some real doubts about McCann's abilities as a manager.

[Reg of the Rovers]

I have to think that yesterday wasnt the preferred date for this fixture? Seems madness to want us to play 4 games in 9 days, like most im worried about the fatigue and the fact that we are losing players left and right at the minute it seems.

In retrospect you're absolutely right Fal - we'd have been without Crew, TSL and Kelly - but would have had fit centre halfs and striker cover to change the game, plus TSL is getting grief for their goal (which I don't agree with) but it was Kelly that winced out of the way to let it through, and wouldn't have had such a congested run.

On paper it seemed the sensible thing to do, in reality unfortunately it hasn't really turned out that way, through no one's fault (except slightly Billy Sharp).

I'm not sure we've got the mental and physical strength to get through the next couple of games, Tranmere won't be easy, then to lift ourselves again for Colchester, we look spent over the last two. I'm also not sure I've got the mental or physical strength at the moment, I need a handful of valium each game day!

[dickos1]

Is 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go not fighting for the title?

[TonySoprano]

Is 4 points off top spot with 4 games to go not fighting for the title?

No, not the way we are playing, not a chance.

[dickos1]

Unbeaten in 7
In better form than all our rivals other than 1.
Yet you say not a chance with the way we’re playing.
Crackers

[NickDRFC]

Unbeaten in 7
In better form than all our rivals other than 1.
Yet you say not a chance with the way we’re playing.
Crackers

“Other than 1” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here given that one is currently top of the table. In the last 6 games they’ve got 15 points and we’ve got 10 so we’re not exactly going toe to toe with them.

Doesn’t really matter at this stage though, the focus is on 3rd and anything else is a bonus.

[dickos1]

Exactly if 3 were in better form than us it would be a worry

[BillyStubbsTears]

Unbeaten in 7
In better form than all our rivals other than 1.
Yet you say not a chance with the way we’re playing.
Crackers

You want to talk about "the way we are playing". Then stop selectively picking recent runs of form and look at the last 23 games. Half a season.

Our recordis
P23 W11 D6 L6 F30 A25 Pts 39 ->78 points over season.

That's possibly just about good enough to squeak us home from here, but it's touch and go.

But now, dig a bit deeper. Look at how we have performed when we've played sides in the two halves of the table on the day of the match.

Record against bottom half sides
P12 W10 D2 L0 F19 A6 Pts32 -> 123 points over a season

Record against top half sides
P11 W1 D4 L6 F11 A19 Pts7 -> 29 points over a season.
(That 1win was against MK Dons who were in 11th place when we played them. They were in the middle of a current run of 3 wins and 4 draws from 21 matches. They,l we're sinking like a stone and would drop into the bottom half for the rest of the season the week after we played them.)

This is what I keep banging on about. We are a side that generally batters lower table sides, but which has now, for half a season, been really, really poor against top half sides. That's not a recent freak set of results. That is a consistent theme stretching back almost 6 months.

And we have 3 sides in the top 8 still to play. We have to do far better than we've done for half a season in those games.

[Michael Shaw]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

We’re not joint third, we are fourth

I suppose that’s a typical doncaster rovers fan way of looking at it,
We’re actually both

Either way I know for a fact all you lot moaning would’ve been the ones snapping my hand off if if offered what we are now with 4 games to go

If today was the last day of the season we are 4th.  That's all there is to it. You are away with the fairies. Facts are facts.

[pib]

Yep and despite Walsall's recent run, the fixture list has been kind to them. Harrogate and Accrington at home, Newport and Crewe away.

We have to better their results against Tranmere, Colchester, Bradford and Notts. Simple as that.

Instinctively it feels like the opportunity is slipping away from us, if it hasn't already. I know mathematically that's nonsense, but they are four very tough games. If (and it's a big if) we win the next 2, things might look a lot more healthy, but Saturday's game and last night both felt like a huge blow.

[IDM]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

We’re not joint third, we are fourth

I suppose that’s a typical doncaster rovers fan way of looking at it,
We’re actually both

Either way I know for a fact all you lot moaning would’ve been the ones snapping my hand off if if offered what we are now with 4 games to go

If today was the last day of the season we are 4th.  That's all there is to it. You are away with the fairies. Facts are facts.

If..

“If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there’d be no need for tinkers..”

(Frank Soencer, circa 1975)

[Dutch Uncle]

BST, your point is well made, and backed up, albeit slightly less dramatically if we take the whole seasons' results and look at the current 11 other top half clubs and the 12 bottom clubs as they now stand in the table. A team's position when we play them might be influenced by games in hand, current form, injuries and suspensions of key players etc, so there is a bit more consistency looking over the whole season with the current table where for the first time in months everyone has played the same number of games..

In that case against the other 11 top half teams our record has been W4, D9, L6, equivalent to 51 points in a season

Against the bottom 12 teams it is W16, D3, L4 for 102 points in a season

Yes we have been flat track bullies against lower teams, but our results against top half teams have been significantly better than 29 points a season.

Also, less analytically, I feel we have been very unfortunate in some matches (e.g. Crewe away, Colchester away), so maybe we will have more of lady luck's influence in the last 4 matches - we are going to need it.        

[IDM]

A penalty or two for us would t go amiss, even soft ones!

[NickDRFC]

Exactly if 3 were in better form than us it would be a worry

You’re not making any sense. You’re saying that we will/should finish in the top 3 because our form is miles better than 2 of the clubs above us.

And you’re also saying that we’re fighting for the title. Despite the fact that top of the league are 4 points ahead of us…and in miles better form than us.

Surely both things can’t be true?

[Michael Shaw]

6 game form table and 10 game form has us higher than all our rivals other than port vale

So nobody around is flying, we’re in a good position.

Imagine in August being told we would be joint 3rd and only 4 points off the top with 4 games to go
You’d snap their hands off

We’re not joint third, we are fourth

I suppose that’s a typical doncaster rovers fan way of looking at it,
We’re actually both

Either way I know for a fact all you lot moaning would’ve been the ones snapping my hand off if if offered what we are now with 4 games to go

If today was the last day of the season we are 4th.  That's all there is to it. You are away with the fairies. Facts are facts.

If..

“If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there’d be no need for tinkers..”

(Frank Soencer, circa 1975)

So you think if we finish on the last day 3rd equal on points (in 4th place) we are not in the play-offs?
I am sure silly quotes will move us into 3rd.

[Michael Shaw]

Isn't everything everybody says right now all "ifs" anyway? So what is the point? Wait until 3rd May and see where we are. It's all just words.

[Pancho Regan]

Some fair and interesting reflections on here.

Thinking of our final 4 fixtures, my predictions are:

Tranmere (W)
Colchester (W)
Bradford (L)
Notts County (D)
(I originally put (L) but my heart won't let me do that!)

I'm not going to predict the results of our rivals' final games so I don't know where the above results would leave us. I think we might just have enough to scrape 3rd but it will go to the last game.
I do think Walsall have the easiest run-in on paper but they also have the worst current form, so I think we will finish above them.
I'm counting on that.