Bookmaker Odds

[GazLaz]

Strip out the bookmaker margin and home advantage for our game at Bradford and the betting markets are saying that ourselves and Bradford are rated pretty much the same.

They had us about +0.3 goals better than Orient and again about 0.3 goals better than Orient.

They think we are a mid table team and I agree.

Our underlying numbers have largely been mid table all season. TLT cost us around 0.25 goals per game which made a huge difference to results during that period. Having a competent keeper has really stabilised things.

Under performance vs expectation in both boxes meant that points didn’t align with expected points. Improvement in the squad and a bit of variance reverting to the mean is culminating in an improved points return.

[Chris Black come back]

They've had an odd run. 4 of their last 5 league games have been away. Not sure how that happened.

[Usher wide.]

Strip out the bookmaker margin and home advantage for our game at Bradford and the betting markets are saying that ourselves and Bradford are rated pretty much the same.

They had us about +0.3 goals better than Orient and again about 0.3 goals better than Orient.

They think we are a mid table team and I agree.

Our underlying numbers have largely been mid table all season. TLT cost us around 0.25 goals per game which made a huge difference to results during that period. Having a competent keeper has really stabilised things.

Under performance vs expectation in both boxes meant that points didn’t align with expected points. Improvement in the squad and a bit of variance reverting to the mean is culminating in an improved points return.

You ‘stole’ my topic/post.

[ncRover]

They only managed 0.03 xG against Lincoln last night. And 0.14 against Huddersfield the game before that. Their attack looks to have dried up completely.

[RoseTInteD]

We are 9th in the form table over the latest 4 games. Bradford are 22nd. The game is winnable.

[Chris Black come back]

11th after 6.

[DonnyOsmond]

FotMob have us 7th on xG table, still chance we can expect to get in the expected play offs and get expected promoted.

[Prez]

With last nights game on Sky, spread betting firm Sporting Index had a variety of markets. Was surprised in the goal scorer minutes market to see Owen Bailey have a small spread of 6-9 minutes.

I bought at £3. The market a settled at 83 minutes (34 + 49) minus the 9 I bought at 74 in total.

74 x £3 a nice £222 profit thanks to captain fantastic.

[GazLaz]

With last nights game on Sky, spread betting firm Sporting Index had a variety of markets. Was surprised in the goal scorer minutes market to see Owen Bailey have a small spread of 6-9 minutes.

I bought at £3. The market a settled at 83 minutes (34 + 49) minus the 9 I bought at 74 in total.

74 x £3 a nice £222 profit thanks to captain fantastic.

I was on aggregate L1 home goals - Away goals at 4.5-5.5 spread… wallop.

[GazLaz]

Strip out the bookmaker margin and home advantage for our game at Bradford and the betting markets are saying that ourselves and Bradford are rated pretty much the same.

They had us about +0.3 goals better than Orient and again about 0.3 goals better than Orient.

They think we are a mid table team and I agree.

Our underlying numbers have largely been mid table all season. TLT cost us around 0.25 goals per game which made a huge difference to results during that period. Having a competent keeper has really stabilised things.

Under performance vs expectation in both boxes meant that points didn’t align with expected points. Improvement in the squad and a bit of variance reverting to the mean is culminating in an improved points return.

This is pretty much how it played out.

The underlying numbers have been constantly mid table all season. There was a slight dip mid season when we players some of the good, physical teams but we’ve largely been consistent.

Narrative has been dictated by results which is certainly a 20 year out of date concept. Performances haven’t been great on the eye but the consistently has been there.

We’ve never been a top 6 level team and we’ve never been a bottom 4 level team.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Strip out the bookmaker margin and home advantage for our game at Bradford and the betting markets are saying that ourselves and Bradford are rated pretty much the same.

They had us about +0.3 goals better than Orient and again about 0.3 goals better than Orient.

They think we are a mid table team and I agree.

Our underlying numbers have largely been mid table all season. TLT cost us around 0.25 goals per game which made a huge difference to results during that period. Having a competent keeper has really stabilised things.

Under performance vs expectation in both boxes meant that points didn’t align with expected points. Improvement in the squad and a bit of variance reverting to the mean is culminating in an improved points return.

This is pretty much how it played out.

The underlying numbers have been constantly mid table all season. There was a slight dip mid season when we players some of the good, physical teams but we’ve largely been consistent.

Narrative has been dictated by results which is certainly a 20 year out of date concept. Performances haven’t been great on the eye but the consistently has been there.

We’ve never been a top 6 level team and we’ve never been a bottom 4 level team.

I'd offer a slightly more nuanced take.

The numbers went down in mid season because we didn't have the players to play the way we wanted. Or at least weren't selecting the players.

In the period from October to December when our results (and performances, and, I assume, the underlying numbers) were at their worst, we regularly had several of McGrath, Sbarra, Broadbent, Sharp, Crew and Lawlor starting, Grehan playing full back with Olusanya and Ajayi making sub appearances.

I'd suggest that if we hadn't significantly improved the squad quality in January, we would have been relegated, and it was that improvement that led to the underlying numbers improving from the mid season dip.

[GazLaz]

Strip out the bookmaker margin and home advantage for our game at Bradford and the betting markets are saying that ourselves and Bradford are rated pretty much the same.

They had us about +0.3 goals better than Orient and again about 0.3 goals better than Orient.

They think we are a mid table team and I agree.

Our underlying numbers have largely been mid table all season. TLT cost us around 0.25 goals per game which made a huge difference to results during that period. Having a competent keeper has really stabilised things.

Under performance vs expectation in both boxes meant that points didn’t align with expected points. Improvement in the squad and a bit of variance reverting to the mean is culminating in an improved points return.

This is pretty much how it played out.

The underlying numbers have been constantly mid table all season. There was a slight dip mid season when we players some of the good, physical teams but we’ve largely been consistent.

Narrative has been dictated by results which is certainly a 20 year out of date concept. Performances haven’t been great on the eye but the consistently has been there.

We’ve never been a top 6 level team and we’ve never been a bottom 4 level team.

I'd offer a slightly more nuanced take.

The numbers went down in mid season because we didn't have the players to play the way we wanted. Or at least weren't selecting the players.

In the period from October to December when our results (and performances, and, I assume, the underlying numbers) were at their worst, we regularly had several of McGrath, Sbarra, Broadbent, Sharp, Crew and Lawlor starting, Grehan playing full back with Olusanya and Ajayi making sub appearances.

I'd suggest that if we hadn't significantly improved the squad quality in January, we would have been relegated, and it was that improvement that led to the underlying numbers improving from the mid season dip.

Who improved the squad massively in January? Elliot Lee? Byrne? I’d make a case for the former but the latter is just a steady defender.

Grehan has shown He can do the business in the last two games. He should have been playing much earlier in the season.

Not playing Jay solved the defensive issues more than any signing.

A big pre new year issue was the goalkeeper making huge mistakes. Hes had less to do in recent times so errors become less frequent but they are still there.

[jmt23]

I would say the form of Gotts, Senior and Pearson went through the roof from early season form. Byrne is a steady eddy, but that was what we needed.
Timmy has also massively improved since he was dropped for all the errors he was making, that is in part down to Zander pushing him.

There was also a tactical rethink in defence, just get rid, we were not passing out from the back, we were launching it high and long.

[Rupee92ONLY]

I’d argue having a proper number 1 (Lawlor was the definitive number 2 and even spoke about his role as that) challenging him had a good impact on TLT. I’d have shot him out of a cannon in January. Clark kept him more focused I think, which i reckon is the reason for his errors.

I’d take Zander Clark here on a permanent deal. I think Kyle Letheren will sign (haha) another young keeper instead though.

[RoversInSpain]

I would say the form of Gotts, Senior and Pearson went through the roof from early season form. Byrne is a steady eddy, but that was what we needed.
Timmy has also massively improved since he was dropped for all the errors he was making, that is in part down to Zander pushing him.

There was also a tactical rethink in defence, just get rid, we were not passing out from the back, we were launching it high and long.

First paragraph spot on, rather than find the scapegoat. Improving the potential can be better than a new signing. Gotts and Senior massive examples, given…. TIME!!

[GazLaz]

I would say the form of Gotts, Senior and Pearson went through the roof from early season form. Byrne is a steady eddy, but that was what we needed.
Timmy has also massively improved since he was dropped for all the errors he was making, that is in part down to Zander pushing him.

There was also a tactical rethink in defence, just get rid, we were not passing out from the back, we were launching it high and long.

First paragraph spot on, rather than find the scapegoat. Improving the potential can be better than a new signing. Gotts and Senior massive examples, given…. TIME!!

Gotts has been the main difference and in such an important role.

[selby]

  Grehan has just played in the two easiest games to be a defender,  both Reading and Northampton were hopeless as attacking units down the centre not even dragging us wide at all.
  Tuesday could be very different and Byrne could come back in, certainly if we had  anything on the game you would, and now if Grehan doesn't play, with us just playing for pride, Tuesday could be a clever bit of management protection.

[Danmckay456]

Why not give Grehan credit for coming in after 2 bad defeats and performances rather than the opposition we played.

[sedwardsdrfc]

Keep Grehan in now. He’s our player so we need to think of next season not helping out loanees.

[Rupee92ONLY]

Why not give Grehan credit for coming in after 2 bad defeats and performances rather than the opposition we played.

Weird isn’t it given how much he waxes lyrical about Bobby Faulkner’s performances for Harrogate, in League 2.

[Janso]

Why not give Grehan credit for coming in after 2 bad defeats and performances rather than the opposition we played.

You, I and everyone that visits this forum for any length of time knows exactly why.

[Danmckay456]

Why not give Grehan credit for coming in after 2 bad defeats and performances rather than the opposition we played.

You, I and everyone that visits this forum for any length of time knows exactly why.

Needs a restraining order lol