Hung Parliament!

[Filo]

Hope that red tie that Nick Clegg wore all night was signalling his intentions

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don't think anyone saw a result as well hung as this coming. Barring a Liberal-Tory deal which seems inconceivable, there's no way for anyone to put a coalition together to produce a majority.

I reckon we'll be doing this all over again within 12 months.

[Filo]

This is a quote from me made on Tuesday that I made on another forum I use

I`m going for a hung parliament with the Lib Dems forcing Brown out and David Millband as PM and Nick Clegg as deputy PM, with a second General election in October

http://www.stainforthonline.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=5386&sid=a6f43641faae0da354f2a1599c5471ec

[awsworth_rover]

My misses said hung last night but she wasnt reffering to the election!!! I just heard that it is likely that labour and libs will put something together for a coalition government. Not sure that go down well, although only in this country could it happen! The parties who are out of favour running the country against the majority, cos they werent a big enough majority! God my head hurts. So many scenarios now available, and after watching the interviews through the night, the only politicion i have actually seen give a straight answer to a question all year instead of rambling on and on is the BNP leader!!!!! They all hide away from questions, and duck and dive, and give cheesy grins.

[DonnyNoel]

BBC reports that Nick Clegg his standing by his statement that the party with the most seats should seek to form a government so perhaps the Torys and LDs will at least have a chit chat? Although its not beyond the possibility that Labout + LD + one more could scrape enough seats between them.

[awsworth_rover]

Also appears that when u take scotland out of the equation, labour have been battered. Dont they want there own government up there??? The only areas where the labour strong hold is still tight are the old mining areas and scotland! I know some people who have voted tory for the 1st time, but wont tell there parents!!! Whats that all about? Surely what a party did 25 years ago shouldnt still effect the future now. I think its mad that in this day and age people feel they cant vote who they want, because its a 'labour area' and there 'letting people down'. What happened to the lib dems?? When that exit poll came up, i thought 'well thats miles out'. But it appeared to be pretty accurate overall. Should be some interesting times ahead.

[RobTheRover]

awsworth_rover wrote:

The parties who are out of favour running the country against the majority, cos they werent a big enough majority!

Its not that at all.  Its because the tories dont speak for the majority of the population, as evidenced by the (roughly) 39% of votes they pulled in.  Like it or loathe it, the first past the post system gives the winner a clear mandate.  when we dont have a winner, like today, then it forces parties to work together (at least in the short term) for the common good.  I dont necessarily see that as a bad thing.

[awsworth_rover]

RobTheRover wrote:

awsworth_rover wrote:

The parties who are out of favour running the country against the majority, cos they werent a big enough majority!

Its not that at all.  Its because the tories dont speak for the majority of the population, as evidenced by the (roughly) 39% of votes they pulled in.  Like it or loathe it, the first past the post system gives the winner a clear mandate.  when we dont have a winner, like today, then it forces parties to work together (at least in the short term) for the common good.  I dont necessarily see that as a bad thing.

I know what your saying, but surely u must agree, brown has had a terrible result and the nation except the hardcore labour areas have enough. Lib dems have been nowhere near where they thought they would be. So labour voted out, lib dem bugger all. How can Brown even contemplate trying to stay in power with a coalition? Clegg has said already whoever gets the majority, should be in power. If he sticks to his word then, he should be jumping in bed with cameron?? Makes a mockery of the whole system if Brown stays in, and yes I understand the rules, but that doesnt mean i agree with them.

[CusworthRovers]

Filo wrote:

http://www.stainforthonline.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=5386&sid=a6f43641faae0da354f2a1599c5471ec

You've got to be shitting me.  

[Thinwhiteduke]

On the BBC Site....

\"Nick Clegg, leader of the third biggest party the Lib Dems, said the Tories had the first right to seek to govern. \"

See link...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8667938.stm

...so do we read from that that the Lib Dems will back a Tory Government and strike a deal with them?

In my eyes Labour have no right to govern, as was said repeatedly last night on both BBC and ITV, they have played second fiddle to the Tories in this election, as the result + swing even in seats where they kept power, has shown. The lies and deceit, particularly during Browns tenure, have bit them in the arse.

[Filo]

Thinwhiteduke wrote:

On the BBC Site....

\"Nick Clegg, leader of the third biggest party the Lib Dems, said the Tories had the first right to seek to govern. \"

See link...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8667938.stm

...so do we read from that that the Lib Dems will back a Tory Government and strike a deal with them?

Lip service! He`s got to be seen to say the right things, all through his campaign he said that the party that has the greatest number of seats should have the chance to form a government, unless the Tories cave in to electoral reform I can`t see  the Lib Dems teaming up with them and giving them that chance. The Lib Dems have more in common with the policies of the Labour party

[Filo]

Thinwhiteduke wrote:

In my eyes Labour have no right to govern, as was said repeatedly last night on both BBC and ITV, they have played second fiddle to the Tories in this election, as the result + swing even in seats where they kept power, has shown. The lies and deceit, particularly during Browns tenure, have bit them in the arse.

But on the other hand the Tories have not been given the required majority to form a stable government, which suggest that the electorate are probably not sure about the Tories either, I predict another election in October

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think some of you are missing the subtlties here.

Clegg is playing a reasonably canny game. By saying the Tories have the first shot at forming a Government, he is NOT saying that he will support such a Government. He's aiming a gun at the Tories' heads and saying, \"Give on our key issues, or we will vote you down and collaborate with Labour.\" If the Tories didn't give, Clegg could hold his hands up and say, \"I tried to be fair and honest but they wouldn't compromise. In the national interest, we will form a Govt with Labour to see us through this crisis.\"

Many, many twists and turns to come here. Personally, I struggle to see how the Tories can possibly accept Liberal demands and have any credibility at all - it would require too much of a change in their policies. There will be some frantic discussions and negotiations going on behind the scenes right now, but any way you cut it up, it's hard to see a Govt emerging from either side that could have a long term existence.

EDIT: Forgot to say two other things:

1) Brown is finished either way. If the Tories and Liberals collaborate, he's gone. If the Liberals collaborate with labour, they'd demand his head as part of the price.

2) Cameron is in deep shit with his Party. His entire policy has been, \"Trust me, leave it to me and shut up. I will win because labour is so unpopular.\" The entire Tory strategy was based around Cameron as a personality. How many times did you see Osbourne, Grieve, Letwin, Willets, Grayling during the campaign? I thought they'd all died. Hague, Gove and Clark popped up once or twice, but apart from that it was ENTIRELY based around Cameron.

He's failed in this approach, and the Party is already sharpening the knives. Already  the grizzled old Tory party grandees are coming out, complaining that they held their noses through all the Cameron attempts to give a more modern, caring face to Toryism, based on his wholesome face, and the result is that after the worst recession in 70 years, he's failed to deliver them back to power. He's going to hear some heated and aggressive opinions from his own side in private, and he will not be able to base any future campaign around \"Trust me. I'm Dave, your mate.\"

[Snods Shinpad 2]

Apparently it's still possible for the Tories to form a minority government if they can cobble together 309 seats with the help of the Unionists and others.

If he can't, then he has to go to Clegg and cut a deal. Clegg will demand PR (unless he becomes some kind of political martyr). Cameron then has the choice of accepting PR or Clegg going to Labour and getting PR and forming a Lib/Lab coalition.

It could even get down to one or two seats making the difference between Cameron or a new Labour Prime Minister (can't see Brown holding on).

And all this without the bitter losers demanding recounts and investigations into voter lockouts.

It's all very interesting that's for sure...

[Thinwhiteduke]

Must say I agree with these sentiments from the BBC election site:

\"Although he has lost this election, and nigh-on a hundred seats, the pundits tell us that constitutionally, Gordon Brown gets first go at trying to patch together a coalition.
His position is desperate, and desperate men are prepared to make any concession, agree to any pact, that will keep them in power. Watch him flatter Nick Clegg, agree to a referendum on Proportional Representation and ditch his Cabinet colleagues.
Then, hear him sonorously and high-mindedly declare himself in favour of \"principled government\".\"

Brown claims to be a symbol of dignity and integrity, he could confirm such and step aside - he simply is not wanted.

[Thinwhiteduke]

Torys and Lib Dems hand in hand?!? Who'd have thought it? Interesting......

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8667938.stm

[Filo]

Thinwhiteduke wrote:

Torys and Lib Dems hand in hand?!? Who'd have thought it? Interesting......

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8667938.stm

How is it hand in hand, as far as I can see Cameron has not offered or promised anything to the Lib Dems. If Clegg throws his lot in with the Tories he may well be finished as Lib Dem leader

[RyansArmy]

There is around 4 likely possible outcomes:

Cameron attempts to form a minority government which will not prove stable and benfical to the Conservatives

A Lib/Labour which would still only be a minority

A Lib/Con government which would mean a conservative majority but how long will it last?

No one colliates, and end of next week her majesty will call foreward \"the best candidate\" for the job (leader of the party with the most seats)

One thing is for certain, Brown is certainly on his way out of Downing street, one rumour from the liberal democrats is a demand to see Clegg as PM and Brown restored as his chancellor, another is Miliband as PM, A Cameron/Clegg governemnt will probably work best because they both want the same thing: Labours power!

[Snods Shinpad 2]

Even if Cameron promised every single seat in the cabinet to the Liberals, Clegg would still go for Brown's offer of PR, as they could be removed from power easily from a coalition government.

Under PR the game is changed permanently and it would guarantee them at least three times the number of seats in future elections.

The only thing to stop Clegg jumping into bed with Brown (assuming Cameron doesn't offer PR), is that he comes under pressure that he is not acting for the good of the country. Being a politician, I assume he'll find a way to spin it in his favour although the Murdoch machine will be out in full force. If he accepted to back Cameron without holding out for voting change his party would never forgive him.

[Filo]

RyansArmy wrote:

, A Cameron/Clegg governemnt will probably work best because they both want the same thing: Labours power!

A recipe for disaster in my opinion and how long do you think it would be before the Tories Double crossed them, once Cameron gets in he`ll ditch the Lib Dems at the first opportunity, I can only see another election later on in the year as the only way forward

[RyansArmy]

Filo wrote:

RyansArmy wrote:

, A Cameron/Clegg governemnt will probably work best because they both want the same thing: Labours power!

A recipe for disaster in my opinion and how long do you think it would be before the Tories Double crossed them, once Cameron gets in he`ll ditch the Lib Dems at the first opportunity, I can only see another election later on in the year as the only way forward

Oh yes, i agree fully with that, Id give it 4-6 months before the general election, all i was digressing towards was that a hung parliment with Gordon Brown staying on is clearly not a fair result given they are not the party with the most seats

[River Don]

RyansArmy wrote:

Filo wrote:

RyansArmy wrote:

, A Cameron/Clegg governemnt will probably work best because they both want the same thing: Labours power!

A recipe for disaster in my opinion and how long do you think it would be before the Tories Double crossed them, once Cameron gets in he`ll ditch the Lib Dems at the first opportunity, I can only see another election later on in the year as the only way forward

Oh yes, i agree fully with that, Id give it 4-6 months before the general election, all i was digressing towards was that a hung parliment with Gordon Brown staying on is clearly not a fair result given they are not the party with the most seats

And if another election so soon throws up a hung parliament again?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Struggling to see how the Liberals could in good faith support the Tories' fiscal policy. The Tories want to reduce Govt spending immediately despite the private sector still being very weak. The Liberals have a very similar policy to Labour which is a neo-Keynsian acceptance that public spending has to continue to take up the slack until the private sector strengthens. That's a fundamental difference in policy. If the Liberals now change their policy then they have effectively deceived everyone who voted for them.

A clear majority of people have voted for parties (Labour & Liberal) who would delay fiscal contraction for a year. A minority voted for the Tories who would tighten spending immediately. There is a clear case for a Labour-Liberal alliance on this issue, which is by far and away the single most important question facing us over the next year.

[bobjimwilly]

Thinwhiteduke wrote:

Brown claims to be a symbol of dignity and integrity, he could confirm such and step aside - he simply is not wanted.

And who is prime-minister in the mean time? Cameron can't just step in, especially now he has offered to go to bed with clegg.

Brown is simply staying on as PM until the next government is formed, whether it be Tory minority, Tory/Lib Dem coalition/partnership, or Labour/Lib Dem/et all coalition.

[bobjimwilly]

Got some figures from BBC website; shows just how much spin has been put on the whole \"the people want Labour out\" thing.

Total Votes:
Conservatives - 10,706,647 (36.1%) - 306 seats
Labour - 8,604,358 (29.0%) - 258 seats
Liberal Democrat - 6,827,938 (23.0%) 57 seats

Also shows why the Lib Dems are so in favour of Electoral reform - they only got 6% less votes than Labour, yet only have 201 seats less than them!  

[Filo]

bobjimwilly wrote:

Got some figures from BBC website; shows just how much spin has been put on the whole \"the people want Labour out\" thing.

Total Votes:
Conservatives - 10,706,647 (36.1%) - 306 seats
Labour - 8,604,358 (29.0%) - 258 seats
Liberal Democrat - 6,827,938 (23.0%) 57 seats

Also shows why the Lib Dems are so in favour of Electoral reform - they only got 6% less votes than Labour, yet only have 201 seats less than them!  

Those figures also show that a labour lib dem partnership have 52 percent of the vote which by alot of peoples reading is themajority of the electorate

[Sandy Lane]

It's clear that the people have spoken and they don't want Brown or Cameron as they knew that if they voted Liberal, that a hung Parliament would result.  But perhaps as this story suggests, it would be what they really want.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/237351/page/1

The question I have is, according to the BBC's \"Hung Parliament - What Happens Now' story, why wasn't Brown given the first chance to talk to the Liberals as is stated d/t the fact he is the sitting PM?  It sounds like Cameron is taking the first crack at it.

And the Liberals may finally get the respect they may deserve.  Perhaps a PR may be the right idea at the right time...

[topnotch_Donny]

The country is full of fools. Labour have gone through the toughest times ever. If cons get in, we are all fooked. It's going to be a bad ride  :angry:

[Filo]

Sandy Lane wrote:

why wasn't Brown given the first chance to talk to the Liberals as is stated d/t the fact he is the sitting PM?  It sounds like Cameron is taking the first crack at it.

I think that Brown took a gamble when he made his statement from Downing street, he knew that the Lib Dems had constantly stated throughout the campaign that they thought that the party with the most seats should have the first opportunity to form a government, Brown was also pretty sure that the Conservatives would not bow to electoral reform, a probable major condition of the Lib Dems for forming any kind of alliance. So Brown says ok speak to the Conservatives first, taking the moral high ground and hoping that the Lib Dems don`t throw their principles away, but at the same time Brown is also saying Labour will go for electoral reform so when your talks with the conservatives fail, Labour is still here ready to talk to you


I hope that makes sense, if it does n`t, I know what i`m on about if no one else does  

[bobjimwilly]

The tories won't go for PR, or electoral reform. They will offer the chance of an inquiry or commission of some kind that will result in nothing, much like what Blair did in the past.

Just hope the Lib Dems won't settle for that and come back over from the Dark Side