It’s time.

[Colin C No.3]

Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

I'm 63 this year and have supported my club since i was eleven, not once have me and my mates sat on a coach or train on our way to a away match or in a Donny boozer before a home match and said "Anyone seen the latest data? Because that will really influence my love of our club today!

You’re quite right. When you’re on your way to watch your team play you’re buzzing. That’s ‘the love’ & long may it remain.

We want ‘bairns’ in their mum & dad’s arms at games. Seven to ten year olds, twelve to fourteen, fifteen to eighteen, eighteen to eighty.

When 15,000 turned out to watch Rovers’ inaugural game at the Keepmoat, what percentage do you think had looked at ‘the stats’ before they attended that day?

When 25,000 plus turned up at Wembley to see us beat ‘mighty’ Leeds & win promotion into the Championship, who ‘fretted’ about xg’s?

I follow the Rovers because they happen to be ‘my club’. Through thick or thin.

Do I really need a ‘bookie’ to tell me the odds on us winning or losing this or that game to influence whether or not I attend a game or believe a certain set of unprecedented results would see us in ‘X’ position?

Nah.

Not for me ta.

But all the best to you who ‘feel the need’.

[Iberian Red]

This thread is like a meeting of The Flat Earth Society.

"F#£kin,science, stats,load of shite"

[NigelJ]

Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

I'm 63 this year and have supported my club since i was eleven, not once have me and my mates sat on a coach or train on our way to a away match or in a Donny boozer before a home match and said "Anyone seen the latest data? Because that will really influence my love of our club today!

You’re quite right. When you’re on your way to watch your team play you’re buzzing. That’s ‘the love’ & long may it remain.

We want ‘bairns’ in their mum & dad’s arms at games. Seven to ten year olds, twelve to fourteen, fifteen to eighteen, eighteen to eighty.

Don't let any eleven year olds in, we don't want them!

[GazLaz]

Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.

You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.

[Bollinger]

Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.

You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.

I know more than you would realise. My job takes me into 52 of the FL clubs on a regular basis. It’s the emphasis of the use of the words ‘rely’ I am objecting to. Inevitably this came up at a coaching seminar a few months ago and one well known manager pointed out that, ‘It’s A tool we use. It’s not THE tool.’

[GazLaz]

Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.

You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.

I know more than you would realise. My job takes me into 52 of the FL clubs on a regular basis. It’s the emphasis of the use of the words ‘rely’ I am objecting to. Inevitably this came up at a coaching seminar a few months ago and one well known manager pointed out that, ‘It’s A tool we use. It’s not THE tool.’

Obviously not the only tool. Doesn’t mean it can’t be the most important.

Once you can get an accurate as possible reflection of what is happening during a game of football you can use it for pretty much anything (football related obviously!). There is so much happening on a pitch, 22 players, thousands of actions a game, various hand stated during the match etc that it’s impossible for a human to consume everything. Analytics is the only way to get anywhere close.

It’s there and can give you a huge head start. Take what I do for example. We have been the most successful (ROI wise) football betting syndicate in the country in recent seasons. Obviously much much larger syndicates, of which there are only a few leg really, have their ROI limited due to scale etc, but within that sector we have done great. The reason for that is that we have been the best at adding that “human” input into our trading. Thats our edge. I understand the necessity of that as much as anyone.

The thing is, without having models that can also compete with the very very best (Asian bettors, Tony Bloom and Matt Benham and the like) we wouldn’t have a really accurate baseline figure to allow that human input and decision making at the end, to have the impact it does. We are looking for 3%, 4%, 5% (if that) mistakes in the markets. It’s the same in a professional football environment. You can set up a really solid structure based on data and then gain a real edge by getting the human, unquantifiable stuff right as well. The main key to this data structure is that you can maintain consistency LONG TERM, that consistency is much harder to maintain using human decision making alone.

[DonnyOsmond]

And different clubs use it to different levels.

[The Dav]

My old director once said to me ‘if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it’ this was business related off course, and I get we’re talking football now,  however I do recognise that while we are all fans, football at a league level is a business ! Look at the wonga involved !

[graingrover]

It is exciting to imagine what generative AI will do for football  anaytics .

[Avsuptem]

It's a well known fact that 90% of statistics are made up and the other half are just wrong anyway.

[WarwickRover]

Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.

You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.

I know more than you would realise. My job takes me into 52 of the FL clubs on a regular basis. It’s the emphasis of the use of the words ‘rely’ I am objecting to. Inevitably this came up at a coaching seminar a few months ago and one well known manager pointed out that, ‘It’s A tool we use. It’s not THE tool.’

Obviously not the only tool. Doesn’t mean it can’t be the most important.

Once you can get an accurate as possible reflection of what is happening during a game of football you can use it for pretty much anything (football related obviously!). There is so much happening on a pitch, 22 players, thousands of actions a game, various hand stated during the match etc that it’s impossible for a human to consume everything. Analytics is the only way to get anywhere close.

It’s there and can give you a huge head start. Take what I do for example. We have been the most successful (ROI wise) football betting syndicate in the country in recent seasons. Obviously much much larger syndicates, of which there are only a few leg really, have their ROI limited due to scale etc, but within that sector we have done great. The reason for that is that we have been the best at adding that “human” input into our trading. Thats our edge. I understand the necessity of that as much as anyone.

The thing is, without having models that can also compete with the very very best (Asian bettors, Tony Bloom and Matt Benham and the like) we wouldn’t have a really accurate baseline figure to allow that human input and decision making at the end, to have the impact it does. We are looking for 3%, 4%, 5% (if that) mistakes in the markets. It’s the same in a professional football environment. You can set up a really solid structure based on data and then gain a real edge by getting the human, unquantifiable stuff right as well. The main key to this data structure is that you can maintain consistency LONG TERM, that consistency is much harder to maintain using human decision making alone.

I agree.... modelling will outperform solely human input over the medium to long term ..... hands down IMO

BTW is 3%, 4%, 5% (which IMO is a fantastic return) ROI%? (i'm assuming it is)

A few questions please, what is the volume of bets you would typically have on a full UK Saturday programme and do you bet on other european leagues?

I appreciate slightly off the original topic but if you wish to take any response off line then fine or if you wish not to answer then also fine

[Chris Black come back]

Winnings tax free so you’d only need to be confident of return of much less eg 3pc to be net well ahead of anything you can get as fixed income or savings, and not too far off long run net equity returns factoring in CGT.

[GazLaz]

Right then, £100 the final figure? Just call up and make a payment to the Academy, right?

[GazLaz]

Paid to the academy.

[donnievic]

Get effort lads well done both but top half is 12th and above not 10th lol

[Pancho Regan]

Paid to the academy.

Well done GazLaz

[Dutch Uncle]

Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.

A good example of a 'decision support system', not a 'decision making system'. I worked for decades in that type of work in a completely different domain. I was always careful to explain that to the human decision makers.

[IDM]

This thread is like a meeting of The Flat Earth Society.

"F#£kin,science, stats,load of shite"

I believe the analytical stats are ideal for the coaching side to use, if they help them work out how to improve performances.  I get that they are useful in the betting industry, but I don’t bet so I don’t really care.

As for the “average” football fan, I don’t see stats being important.  How do you measure the feeling when Trotta hit the bar, when Sharp scored vs Boro, Jones’ winner at Stevenage etc.

Spectating enjoyment can be ruined by abysmal officiating or opposition shithousery (Cotteril’s Portsmouth for example) regardless if our team stats were actually good?

Like someone else said, I get a feeling for how well a player has performed by observation.  That will always be subjective and lead to debate - for example lots of folks thought Paul Keegan was crap, but I thought he was very effective in his role.  What were his stats?  I couldn’t give a toss.!

Stats are fine, but for me the stats that count are goals for and against.

[pigeonhole]

This thread is like a meeting of The Flat Earth Society.

"F#£kin,science, stats,load of shite"

I believe the analytical stats are ideal for the coaching side to use, if they help them work out how to improve performances.  I get that they are useful in the betting industry, but I don’t bet so I don’t really care.

As for the “average” football fan, I don’t see stats being important.  How do you measure the feeling when Trotta hit the bar, when Sharp scored vs Boro, Jones’ winner at Stevenage etc.

Spectating enjoyment can be ruined by abysmal officiating or opposition shithousery (Cotteril’s Portsmouth for example) regardless if our team stats were actually good?

Like someone else said, I get a feeling for how well a player has performed by observation.  That will always be subjective and lead to debate - for example lots of folks thought Paul Keegan was crap, but I thought he was very effective in his role.  What were his stats?  I couldn’t give a toss.!

Stats are fine, but for me the stats that count are goals for and against.

You see, I would be interested to see Paul Keegan's stats because there must have been something I was missing.  To the casual observer he couldn't trap a bag of cement, had no discernible vision, skill or pace.  People say he fulfilled a destructive role but was often the wrong side of the ball chasing shadows. 

His stats might point out that he ran 20km a game, was like lightning over the first 2 yards and did, in fact, stifle several opposition attacks per game. 

I think you sometimes you need more information to override innate biases.  Stats will help.

[Reg of the Rovers]

Agree Pigeonhole, and also being clear what you are measuring. Different attributed individuals make a good team - pace, delivery and shot accuracy good for Hurst, but Keegan as case in point is a much blunter tool - interceptions made, tackles won, strength, athleticism, ball turnover etc - and I also thought he had that hard-man persona that gives the oppo a little bit extra doubt. As they say in the Blind Side, the first cheque you cash is for the mortgage, but the second cheque is for the insurance. Horses for courses, and all that.

[drfcsteve]

I think there’s some confusion on data. I don’t think anyone is saying you have to look at the data to enjoy watching a game as a fan. But obviously you do need to look at the data if you are the manager, if you are responsible for recruiting players, etc.

As has been pointed out the clubs that do look very closely at the data, Brighton, Brentford, Luton, have massively overachieved. It doesn’t mean all their fans have to watch games with a spreadsheet open.

[MachoMadness]

I think there’s some confusion on data. I don’t think anyone is saying you have to look at the data to enjoy watching a game as a fan. But obviously you do need to look at the data if you are the manager, if you are responsible for recruiting players, etc.

As has been pointed out the clubs that do look very closely at the data, Brighton, Brentford, Luton, have massively overachieved. It doesn’t mean all their fans have to watch games with a spreadsheet open.

This.

I don't think anyone is suggesting fans go to games with calculators and note pads out. No one on this forum has ever suggested they didn't enjoy a game because Mark Wilson's performance rated a 5.9 rather than a 6.2 on whatever ratings metric they use. But when it comes to player ID it's crucial, you can't just sign players based on gut feelings and passing observations anymore.

As it's part of the club's operation then it's only natural to talk about it the same way we talk about the formation we play or the state of the pitch.

[drfcsteve]

I’d argue Brentford Brighton and Luton are all similar size clubs to ourselves, albeit their fan bases have grown as they’ve climbed the leagues, as you’d expect. We’ve played at the same level as all three in recent memory. Just shows what is possible.

[Chris Black come back]

All three have definitely been proper shite in living memory and at least as bad as we have been, but historically all three are bigger clubs and have had stints in top flight in living memory in case of Brighton and Luton, while Brentford hasn’t been in top flight for a decent while but are a London club which gives advantages. I get their gates are not amazing but they’ve had some history in top tier and have won or played in finals of proper trophies, even if some time ago.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Do not discount the money they spent to get there though, huge sums.  Brighton were losing 20m+ a year in the championship. Luton even as smaller spenders last year lost over £8m it's a big ask with or without data.