Talk Your Way Out Of This One Johnson

[tyke1962]

An attempt from someone that helped this absolute scandal ridden government into power to not want anyone to refer to a reversal of possibly the dumbest political decision ever made this side of ww2. Thank you for the advice, not. Having said that, has anyone heard anyone at all talk of a reversal? It's difficult not to discuss the consequences as it is evidenced on a daily basis across the news, ask anyone that's been near an airport recently. I would respectfully suggest that anyone that voted for brexit automatically disqualifies themselves from taking up a political advisory roll.

That's fine Syd .

Reverse Brexit , however put that in an election manifesto and let the electorate decide .

Now I know the Labour Party  has a real distaste for democracy but it seems fair enough to me .

You weren't thinking of pushing this through were you in coalition with the SNP and the Dems without a mandate from the electorate were you ?

Comprehension tyke, you need to work on it, that's not what I wrote.

But it is dear Sydney .

 " Anyone who voted for Brexit automatically disqualifies themselves from taking up a political advisory role "

Seems crystal clear what you meant at least to me .

[SydneyRover]

It's a good article Albie, Rafael Behr calls him ''biddable'' I been saying it for a long time. the link between big donors and politicians needs to be broken

Assume that means unions too?

It means exactly what is writ Ldr

[SydneyRover]

''UK growth set to be worst in G20 apart from Russia, OECD warns
Sharp slowdown attributed to effects of high inflation and rising taxes''

''Economic growth in the UK will grind to a halt next year with only Russia, hobbled by western sanctions, performing worse among the G20 leading economies, the OECD forecast on Wednesday.

The Paris-based organisation’s forecast highlighted the effects of high UK inflation still squeezing household and corporate incomes in 2023 alongside a further round of tax increases as the main drivers of the country’s expected weak economic activity.

''The forecasts underscore the difficulties a weakened Prime Minister Boris Johnson is likely to face in the months ahead as he tries to shore up support within his Conservative party after surviving a no-confidence vote on Monday and demonstrate the government can manage the economy effectively''

https://www.ft.com/content/ee2ce542-eb19-48c1-9a1d-57a8200a47ae

If you don't expect anything substantive in reply to the economic crisis (save the big mangy cur) on Thursday from #10 then you won't be disappointed.

[SydneyRover]

'' tend to think his point initially is spot on.  Set the strategy, work on it, then formalise the detail''

Maybe you can tell me what the strategy is pud?

I'm not an MP so I've no need to. All planned out in my own workplace though.

Just blindly following what any tory MP spouts then pud? wouldn't you want to see a strategy to improve efficiencies to help get inflation under control, tax cuts by themselves could prove to be a sugar hit and push it higher.

''Inflation concerns force Rishi Sunak to rule out tax cuts in autumn''

''Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak have ruled out tax cuts in this autumn’s budget because of fears that reductions would fuel inflation.

The prime minister and the chancellor are expected to make a speech next week in which they will set out a possible long-term timetable for reducing people’s tax burden.

One government source said ministers were considering reducing income tax by 2p — rather than the planned cut of 1p — in 2024. Other tax cuts were also being considered''

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inflation-concerns-force-rishi-sunak-to-rule-out-tax-cuts-in-autumn-n878tfdm5

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's a well established psephological idea that the main thing that influences voters minds at General Elections, is how their own conditions have changed over the preceding 3 months.

The Tories have bought right into that. They have ramped up taxes now, at the worst possible time, squeezing growth out of the system. All so that they can give as big a tax cut as possible to some people just before the Election. At a time when the economy should be recovering and tax cuts are not required.

It's shameless, but what do you really expect?

[River Don]

High taxes, rising interest rates and rapidly rising energy bills...

I'm sure that will all work out fine.

I think we're on course for a deep recession.

[selby]

  Billy at last, someone who see's the strategy, I agree it's what they will do, very difficult to stop the hurt now, but when it matters?  and probably also a new leader who it makes look good with new ideas and a vision just before the people vote for a new government.

[River Don]

I think they've got to cut taxes. The UK is the only major nation going into this with a rising tax burden.

If I were king, I think I'd make a hefty cut to fuel duty. They must be making plenty from it now, so I imagine there must be scope for a cut.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think they've got to cut taxes. The UK is the only major nation going into this with a rising tax burden.

If I were king, I think I'd make a hefty cut to fuel duty. They must be making plenty from it now, so I imagine there must be scope for a cut.

I'd do something altogether different actually. If they want to protect economic growth and demand a cut to vat would be the most sensible.  With that the cut is continued even if oil prices continue to grow and covers all parts of the economy.  Fuel distributors don't make huge profits.

I'd go with a change to the personal allowance alongside that, it favours the poorest best that way.

[River Don]

Brent crude has broken through $125 a barrel this morning and is heading to $127 now.

More inflation coming our way.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I think they've got to cut taxes. The UK is the only major nation going into this with a rising tax burden.

If I were king, I think I'd make a hefty cut to fuel duty. They must be making plenty from it now, so I imagine there must be scope for a cut.

How do you make that out? If anything the Fuel Duty revenue will have fallen due to higher prices.

[River Don]

BFYP

Fair enough. Lower fuel prices at the pump would ripple through to all parts of the economy too.

I think I'd look at forcing the energy companies to lower their standing charges too.

That way at least poorer families would get some benefit from the energy they can't afford to use

[River Don]

I think they've got to cut taxes. The UK is the only major nation going into this with a rising tax burden.

If I were king, I think I'd make a hefty cut to fuel duty. They must be making plenty from it now, so I imagine there must be scope for a cut.

How do you make that out? If anything the Fuel Duty revenue will have fallen due to higher prices.

I doubt fuel demand had fallen away much yet. I still see a lot of traffic on the roads.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I think they've got to cut taxes. The UK is the only major nation going into this with a rising tax burden.

If I were king, I think I'd make a hefty cut to fuel duty. They must be making plenty from it now, so I imagine there must be scope for a cut.

How do you make that out? If anything the Fuel Duty revenue will have fallen due to higher prices.

I doubt fuel demand had fallen away much yet. I still see a lot of traffic on the roads.

Rising prices don't increase demand, they decrease it. Especially amongst those with shrinking disposable income due to other price rises.

Anyway, you still haven't said how you think the government has got more Fuel Duty revenue. I can't understand your thinking on that one.

[SydneyRover]

It's already happening

''Fuel sales have fallen as drivers cut back on the number of journeys they make due to higher pump prices, a petrol station operator has said.

Ascona Group, which owns 60 UK petrol stations, said the amount of fuel it sold had dropped by 200,000 litres a week compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Managing director Darren Briggs said customers were making £20 to £30 fuel purchases "last a little bit longer".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61433722

[River Don]

Had a little think about that and accept I am talking rot. The tax take won't have increased

I still think though, it would be a good idea to try and reduce the impact of price increases on transport fuels. Unless you can convince me otherwise

[Glyn_Wigley]

I don't disagree with the overall argument, it's how you do it that's the nub of the problem. If Fuel Duty was an ad valorem levy there'd be an argument for reduction but as it isn't reducing it will reduce government revenues even further than they already have been and it's no guarantee that the petrol companies wouldn't cream off even more windfall profits by not passing any reductions fully on to the customer.

[River Don]

I suppose anything that subsidises fuel will ultimately be inflationary anyway.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I suppose anything that subsidises fuel will ultimately be inflationary anyway.

If you're subsiding and bringing down the cost to the consumer then it'd help reduce inflation as inflation is measured using the Consumer Prices Index. Reducing fuel costs would also help reduce the prices of other goods and have an anti-inflationary effect. The only inflationary effect of it I can think of is that if would help increase economic growth.

[River Don]

That's what I meant. It would increase growth and push demand for fuel. That's in short supply so the price would rise again.

I guess it would all rebalance back to the situation where you started eventually

[Glyn_Wigley]

Ah, I think you were confusing inflation with the price of an individual commodity.

The biggest problem with inflation is how it's measured and therefore what people think it is. Although inflation has the effect of raising prices across an economy, what it is isn't based on prices - inflation is the rate at which a currency loses it's value - which therefore effects the price of everything priced in that currency. The big problem is how do you measure the rate of inflation? At present it is measured using the Consumer Price Index, which is nowhere near an ideal measurement (because the different commodities used in the index have prices that go up and down due to factors that aren't to do with the true value of the currency - and also because the commodities used are regularly arbitrarily changed so there is no consistent measure of the index itself) but unfortunately it's the best measure we have available. It's because of this that people associate true inflation with the 'cost of living', albeit mistakenly.

What I'm getting at after all that is that the price of fuel (or any other single commodity) going up and down isn't a reflection of inflation as a whole on it's own.

[River Don]

I understand that inflation measures the rate of increase and will tend to naturally fall away.

It was the wrong term. The problem is that energy cost is going to represent a relatively larger proportion of everyone's income going forward.

If wages rise that will likely push the value of those fossil fuels up too. Unless more fuel becomes available, which doesn't seem likely in the near to medium term or we become less reliant on fossil fuels, which might be possible but not quickly.

Getting away from the figures the value of energy is going up and going forward is likely to remain relatively high for sometime.

Does that make sense?

[River Don]

Obviously I'm not a trained economist and I often don't have the terminology to hand.

[SydneyRover]

The NHS which johnson talked up in question time, this is the reality for some ....... all of it is interesting but start at 28:45

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/audio/2022/jun/09/johnson-nothing-and-no-one-will-stop-me-podcast

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It's already happening

''Fuel sales have fallen as drivers cut back on the number of journeys they make due to higher pump prices, a petrol station operator has said.

Ascona Group, which owns 60 UK petrol stations, said the amount of fuel it sold had dropped by 200,000 litres a week compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Managing director Darren Briggs said customers were making £20 to £30 fuel purchases "last a little bit longer".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61433722

Loads of other elements to it not just the price.  Much more electric driving and much less commuting for starters.

[drfchound]

It's already happening

''Fuel sales have fallen as drivers cut back on the number of journeys they make due to higher pump prices, a petrol station operator has said.

Ascona Group, which owns 60 UK petrol stations, said the amount of fuel it sold had dropped by 200,000 litres a week compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Managing director Darren Briggs said customers were making £20 to £30 fuel purchases "last a little bit longer".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61433722

Loads of other elements to it not just the price.  Much more electric driving and much less commuting for starters.

Yep, agreed bfyp.   There will inevitably be a little less driving due to price, but people working from home post pandemic and the rise of electric car use will undoubtedly have had an effect.
The use of petrol and diesel will probably continue to decrease in the coming years.

[SydneyRover]

It's already happening

''Fuel sales have fallen as drivers cut back on the number of journeys they make due to higher pump prices, a petrol station operator has said.

Ascona Group, which owns 60 UK petrol stations, said the amount of fuel it sold had dropped by 200,000 litres a week compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Managing director Darren Briggs said customers were making £20 to £30 fuel purchases "last a little bit longer".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61433722

Loads of other elements to it not just the price.  Much more electric driving and much less commuting for starters.

People probably squirreling their money away pud.

''The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes in Great Britain dropped by 1.4% in March, after a decline of 0.5% a month earlier as shoppers adjusted to rising costs. City economists had forecast a drop of 0.3%.

''UK cost of living crisis dents retail sales and service sector'' April 22/2022

The drop in demand came before shoppers felt the impact of April’s cost of living rises, when the cap on household energy bills went up by 54% and national insurance contributions increased by 1.25 percentage points//

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/22/retail-sales-fall-in-great-britain-as-food-and-petrol-prices-soar

[SydneyRover]

Ah, the English language ...................

''Roland the Farter was the jester star of the court of Henry II, shattering the dignity of society once a year when, during the king’s raucous Christmas celebrations, he would deliver his explosive volleys on demand. The Farter would have served Boris Johnson’s swiftly decomposing Brexit government well, characterised as it is by a daily succession of stinking yet plosive announcements, designed only to distract from its rapid public unravelling. But instead of Roland the Farter, we have Nadine Dorries, whose unfiltered gob-flatus exposes deeper truths than the festive flatulence of the famous Roland could reveal'' ................ cont'


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/12/dorries-slips-the-leash-to-clear-up-the-big-dogs-mess

[SydneyRover]

Next please, the not-doctor will see you now, where you may have to be transferred to a not new hospital and maybe operated on by a not-surgeon.

That is, if you don't die on the waiting list

busadvertising is better, you can stretch the truth

vote tory

[normal rules]

It's already happening

''Fuel sales have fallen as drivers cut back on the number of journeys they make due to higher pump prices, a petrol station operator has said.

Ascona Group, which owns 60 UK petrol stations, said the amount of fuel it sold had dropped by 200,000 litres a week compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Managing director Darren Briggs said customers were making £20 to £30 fuel purchases "last a little bit longer".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61433722

Loads of other elements to it not just the price.  Much more electric driving and much less commuting for starters.

Yep, agreed bfyp.   There will inevitably be a little less driving due to price, but people working from home post pandemic and the rise of electric car use will undoubtedly have had an effect.
The use of petrol and diesel will probably continue to decrease in the coming years.

I said this a while ago. We are entering an era where car ownership and use will be a luxury for many more people. I suppose for some it always has been.