Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on February 12, 2023, 08:54:12 pm
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...for the BST patent points predictor.
Quick summary. This looks at the current points position, and the last ten games' form. It assumes that form carries on to the end of the season and calculates how many points each finishing position would have. That's the key - it doesn't predict each SIDE'S final points. It predicts the points required to finish in each position.
There's nothing mathematically rigorous about this, but for the past 10-12 years, it has been remarkable accurate from about 15 games out in predicting most final points tallies to within 1-2 points. For example, from about this time last season, it predicted the final points tallies of the bottom 8 very well. The average error in the predicted final tally was 1.5 points, and for no position was it more than 3 points out.
So here goes. As of today, here are the predicted points for each finishing position.
1st 87
2nd 84
3rd 82
4th 79
5th 75
6th 73
7th 73
8th 70
9th 69
10th 69
11th 67
12th 64
13th 63
14th 61
Looks like a proper dogfight for the lower playoff places. And if this is right, it implies that we need VERY good form to scrape into 7th - 30 points from 17 games - P17 W9 D3 L5. Not much room for error there.
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ten wins then.
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Feels unlikely doesn't it with some of the fixtures we've got coming up. If we play well tomorrow I might start to believe we can pick up a bit more consistency though.
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For the record, I should have made this clearer. I'm not saying bang on 73 points will definitely secure 7th place. That's what the model says is the most likely figure.
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BST's model has done very well these last years. But for interest, just to add a couple of data points - since three points per win was introduced in 1981-82 the average number of points for 7th position in tier 4 has been 71.49, the highest 79 (in 1982-83) and the lowest 68 (in 2010-11). The average number of points in 8th position in tier 4 is 69.22 with a highest of 76 by Sutton last year and a lowest of 62 in 2013-14
A few comments:
Play-offs were introduced in 1986-87 so the highest of 79 in 1982-83 was not in a playoff chasing scenario
Some seasons were only 42 games - I have increased the points pro-rata to 46 games to for averaging and analysis
Similarly for 2019-20, the COVID interrupted season I have extrapolated pro-rata to 46 games
So this seasons looks like being a higher than average year for points required
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Always interesting this .
Rovers currently at 1.48 ppg after 29 games.
To make 73 points, for the remaining 17 games alone the ppg required would need to be 1.76ppg.
Adopting an optimistic view, the current turnaround in form may provide the necessary boost to the ppg required.
And to add context, a win tonight would rise rovers ppg so far for the season to 1.53. To make 73 points over the season is just 1.58ppg over the whole season.
This is achievable. Wins of course will be key, but draws will play a big part too.
To get to 82 for a possible auto slot would require an extraordinary turnaround. Roy of the rovers stuff of 2.29 ppg for the remaining 17 games.
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Good points NR.
We undoubtedly need a significant improvement in form to compete.
Splitting the season to date into roughly thirds, we've averaged
1.56 PPG for the first 9 games
1.40 PPG for the middle 10
1.50 PPG for the most recent 10
So we've never been in playoff form for a reasonable period.
Funny thing though, form stats. Theu are capricious things. If we win tonight, our most recent10 game form will be 1.8 PPG.
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Barrow, Bradford and Sutton games are all six pointers given the points proximity. Imo.
Come out of these three games with a win and two draws or more and things will start to look very promising.
5 points would be 1.66ppg taking the season average to 1.5ppg.
We dare to dream.
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About 1.7ppg to the end of the season?
Do’able?
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16 games left 10wins should see us in the mix can we do it.
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16 games left 10wins should see us in the mix can we do it.
8 wins and 3 draws from 16 games gives us 73 points. That should be enough for 7th place.
11 wins and 2 draws gives us 81 points. That might be enough for 3rd place.
Tall order but definitely not impossible. The next 6 games will now be absolutely crucial.
Sutton A
Bradford H
Stockport A
Harrogate H
Wimbledon H
Salford. A
Think if we win 4 of those and only lose 1 then top 3 becomes a very realistic possibility as Carlisle and Northampton are faltering.
Just trying not to get too ahead of myself.
One game at a time.
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Last nights win takes rovers season average to 1.53ppg. Keep that up and it’s 70/71 points. Which could be enough for 7th.
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I'll be astonished if 70 points gets someone 7th place.
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The predictor is saying 75 points for 7th place after last night. I'll split the difference between the last 2 predictions and go for 74. That's a big ask for us.
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I will be disappointed BST if we don’t get 74 points from where we are now.
That’s 28 more points from 16 games.
9 wins and 1 draw or 8 wins and 4 draws.
After this next 6 games the run in to the end of the season, our last 10 games look much more comfortable on paper.
Now I am not stupid enough to think we will win against everyone in the bottom half of the table ( Hartlepool doing the double over us being the prime example ) but if we get a decent points haul from the next 6 then the play offs positions are ours to throw away.
Of our last 10 games we only have Northampton H & Stevenage A who are currently in the top 14
We finish at Walsall A who are currently in 15th place but have 2/3 games in hand on almost everyone above.
It a good run in for us. In fact I doubt anyone else have a better one on paper.
Just a pity football isn’t played on paper. ;)
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I will be disappointed BST if we don’t get 74 points from where we are now.
That’s 28 more points from 16 games.
9 wins and 1 draw or 8 wins and 4 draws.
After this next 6 games the run in to the end of the season, our last 10 games look much more comfortable on paper.
Now I am not stupid enough to think we will win against everyone in the bottom half of the table ( Hartlepool doing the double over us being the prime example ) but if we get a decent points haul from the next 6 then the play offs positions are ours to throw away.
I think you're being overly optimistic to be honest. That's form equivalent to 81 points over the season. That's usually enough for a top 3 place. We've never shown a sign of being that good at any point this season. For all that the three points last night were merited, I think we need to be realistic that we are far from a remorseless machine. It was quite sobering how Barrow unsettled us by playing a more aggressive push n the second half. That's been our weakness all season, and we'll come up against that plenty between now and May.
I'd snap your hand off if you offered me 74 points and a shot at the playoffs here and now. My honest expectation is that we'll get 70 and finish 9th.
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It wouldn’t surprise me if the total needed for 7th is a bit higher this season. I can’t really see any of the sides from 3rd to 8th having a nosedive.
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It wouldn’t surprise me if the total needed for 7th is a bit higher this season. I can’t really see any of the sides from 3rd to 8th having a nosedive.
But they are all going to take points off each other. I am going to predict that Carlisle have a serious wobble and fall out of the top 7. Salford just fail to make the cut and Northampton are the other team who wobble but make the top 7. Northampton are struggling to score goals over the last month or so. Carlisle I just don’t think have the strength in depth and last nights 0-4 defeat at home to Mansfield shows their vulnerability. They have seriously over achieved this season up to this point.
Final table prediction. You heard it here 1st. :chair:
1) Leyton Orient
2) Stevenage
3) Bradford City
4) Stockport County
5) Mansfield Town
6) Doncaster Rovers
7) Northampton Town
8) Salford City
9) Carlisle United
10) Swindon Town
11) Walsall
12) Wimbledon
13) Tranmere Rovers
14) Sutton United
15) Barrow
16) Grimsby Town
17) Colchester United
18) Crewe Alexandra
19) Gillingham
20) Newport County
21) Harrogate Town
22) Hartlepool United
23) Crawley Town
24) Rochdale
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Stags v rovers playoff semi final?
Tasty.
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A couple of big attendances for those matches, if they were to happen.
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16 games left 10wins should see us in the mix can we do it.
8 wins and 3 draws from 16 games gives us 73 points. That should be enough for 7th place.
11 wins and 2 draws gives us 81 points. That might be enough for 3rd place.
Tall order but definitely not impossible. The next 6 games will now be absolutely crucial.
Sutton A
Bradford H
Stockport A
Harrogate H
Wimbledon H
Salford. A
Think if we win 4 of those and only lose 1 then top 3 becomes a very realistic possibility as Carlisle and Northampton are faltering.
Just trying not to get too ahead of myself.
One game at a time.
I see us getting these results
Sutton win
Bradford draw
Stockport lose
Harrogate win
Wimbledon draw
Salford win
11 points from 18.
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Good points NR.
We undoubtedly need a significant improvement in form to compete.
Splitting the season to date into roughly thirds, we've averaged
1.56 PPG for the first 9 games
1.40 PPG for the middle 10
1.50 PPG for the most recent 10
So we've never been in playoff form for a reasonable period.
Funny thing though, form stats. Theu are capricious things. If we win tonight, our most recent10 game form will be 1.8 PPG.
The underlying numbers reflect us being a top 5/7/8 side. I said that to Gavin prior to the last three wins, then bish, bash, bosh, three wins in a row balancing out a bit of indifferent variance in results prior to that.
One thing that concerns me is the fact that the improvement in form is down to really good defensive numbers (when before the last three clean sheets) BUT the attacking output is still stagnant. We realistically need to improve that output by 0.25ish goals per game to really be a force in this league. I think that could be a personnel issue though. Miller, LM and KH as a regular front three aren’t good enough.
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Look at it another way (albeit a crude one), if we repeat our current season-long PPG over the next 15, we'd go into the last game at Walsall on 69pts. If BST's initial post is close to accurate, 8th place finishes on 70, so we could potentially go into that last game knowing there's a chance a win would secure 7th.
Any slight uptick in season-long PPG over and above that, and we're in with a very good shout.
Don't get me wrong, it's a big ask to get the points required from 16 games and it might turn out we've left ourselves with too much to do, but there are numerous ways of looking at it, and there's definitely still a chance.
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We really need to get something on Saturday (a draw will do) and then go into the bradford game looking for a win. We’ve got a tough 4 weeks coming up I fear
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My take is that we are going to get to the end of the season and, when we just miss out on the playoffs, ask ourselves how we managed to drop 9 points from three games against Hartlepool and Colchester.
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The goal diff is a real bummer.
I hope it doesn’t make the difference.
Points tally is one thing, but as it stands our gd is effectively-1 point.
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My take is that we are going to get to the end of the season and, when we just miss out on the playoffs, ask ourselves how we managed to drop 9 points from three games against Hartlepool and Colchester.
Swings and roundabouts, BST. Think how MK Dons must have felt last season. Just 2 draws against the worst Rovers side in over 20 years would have given them automatic promotion.
Instead, we did the bloody double over them.
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The last 6 games of the season always throw up surprises. Form goes out of the window and PPG is irrelevant. It's within most teams capability of putting a run together. A run of wins or a run of losses.
As said, if up to game 39 we can manage between 1.75 to 2 pts per game, I suspect we'll be in a good position for play offs and possibly a tilt for automatic.
It's not a must win in Saturday but anything other than a loss sets us up to bridge that gap to the play off positions, then it's a case of staying there until the last 6 burn up!
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1.7ppg in 2023 would put us in 7th on 73. I'd happily take that and would fancy us to have a decent crack at it. I know it's only the last 7 games not 10 BST, but never mind. The overall point is we think we can do this. We're starting to play a bit. Do slightly better and we're definitely above that dotted line. For example had we kept Hartlepool at 0-0 we'd be on 1.85ppg from last 7 ie 5th on 75pts.
Come on Rovers, let's have it.
Wember-leee, Wember-leee...etc.
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Disappointingly, this still continues not to be a Chicken Song appreciation thread.
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The last 6 games of the season always throw up surprises. Form goes out of the window and PPG is irrelevant. It's within most teams capability of putting a run together. A run of wins or a run of losses.
As said, if up to game 39 we can manage between 1.75 to 2 pts per game, I suspect we'll be in a good position for play offs and possibly a tilt for automatic.
It's not a must win in Saturday but anything other than a loss sets us up to bridge that gap to the play off positions, then it's a case of staying there until the last 6 burn up!
Based on the 2ppg theory at games played 39. Rovers would have to get 32 more points from the next 9 games. Which is mathematically impossible. Even at 1.75ppg for games played 39, would mean 22 points from 9 games. Which is a very very tall order. That’s 6 or 7 win territory. Plus draws.
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Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.
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Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.
I think what DBR was meaning was if can average 1.75 to 2ppg in the next 9 games that would give us between 62 and 64 points with 7 to go, and in a good position for those last 7 games
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Little bit of realism here.
If we get 2ppg from the next 9 games, we will by then have got 36 points from the past 19 games. That's something close to title winning form over nearly half a season.
Optimist that I am, I'm not buying that this squad is capable of that sort of form for that length of time.
And of course, I'll be delighted to be proved wrong.
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Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.
I think what DBR was meaning was if can average 1.75 to 2ppg in the next 9 games that would give us between 62 and 64 points with 7 to go, and in a good position for those last 7 games
I did indeed!
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I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins
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My take is that we are going to get to the end of the season and, when we just miss out on the playoffs, ask ourselves how we managed to drop 9 points from three games against Hartlepool and Colchester.
Swings and roundabouts, BST. Think how MK Dons must have felt last season. Just 2 draws against the worst Rovers side in over 20 years would have given them automatic promotion.
Instead, we did the bloody double over them.
Just to add, 2 of the scorers in that double were Cukur and Dodoo. Without those goals, MK Dons would be in the Championship.
That's football. Absolutely crazy.
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I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins
We are ravenrover. But it’s good to see all this positivity.
We could all come crashing down to earth if we only pick up 1 or 2 points from the next 3 games.
I do think that the team are starting to believe in themselves and keeping 3 clean sheets in the last 3 games is a massive boost to the teams belief.
As CBcb keeps saying clean sheets are the key. This team are not going to score 3 goals a game.
They are unlikely to ave 2 goals a game over the last 16 games. So clean sheets mean we only need to score 1 goal to win a game.
I seriously would be disappointed if we don’t make the play offs now. This is not a great league and all the teams fighting for a play off place have been very inconsistent. It’s there for the taking. I believe we can do this now.
A huge set of fixtures between now and end of March.
6 matches against teams all still hoping for a top 7 finish, Sutton A, Bradford H, Stockport A, Wimbledon H, Salford A, & Northampton H and 2 strugglers in Harrogate H, & Crawley A
We don’t have to win all these games but it’s important we don’t lose many. Lose more than 2 against the 6 rivals then we are going to struggle.
The last 8 games after this run of 8 is much easier on paper. Only Stevenage A & Walsall A in the current top 15 teams.
If only results of games were that predictable. Anyway I am confident. Not going to arrange anything for the play off final weekend that is for sure.
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I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins
We are ravenrover. But it’s good to see all this positivity.
We could all come crashing down to earth if we only pick up 1 or 2 points from the next 3 games.
I do think that the team are starting to believe in themselves and keeping 3 clean sheets in the last 3 games is a massive boost to the teams belief.
As CBcb keeps saying clean sheets are the key. This team are not going to score 3 goals a game.
They are unlikely to ave 2 goals a game over the last 16 games. So clean sheets mean we only need to score 1 goal to win a game.
I seriously would be disappointed if we don’t make the play offs now. This is not a great league and all the teams fighting for a play off place have been very inconsistent. It’s there for the taking. I believe we can do this now.
A huge set of fixtures between now and end of March.
6 matches against teams all still hoping for a top 7 finish, Sutton A, Bradford H, Stockport A, Wimbledon H, Salford A, & Northampton H and 2 strugglers in Harrogate H, & Crawley A
We don’t have to win all these games but it’s important we don’t lose many. Lose more than 2 against the 6 rivals then we are going to struggle.
The last 8 games after this run of 8 is much easier on paper. Only Stevenage A & Walsall A in the current top 15 teams.
If only results of games were that predictable. Anyway I am confident. Not going to arrange anything for the play off final weekend that is for sure.
Losing isn't so bad, as long as we pick up wins too. Wining 4 and losing 4 of those 8 is decent. Winning 5, losing 3 is good. Better than 4 wins 2 draws and 2 losses!!
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I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins
We are ravenrover. But it’s good to see all this positivity.
We could all come crashing down to earth if we only pick up 1 or 2 points from the next 3 games.
I do think that the team are starting to believe in themselves and keeping 3 clean sheets in the last 3 games is a massive boost to the teams belief.
As CBcb keeps saying clean sheets are the key. This team are not going to score 3 goals a game.
They are unlikely to ave 2 goals a game over the last 16 games. So clean sheets mean we only need to score 1 goal to win a game.
I seriously would be disappointed if we don’t make the play offs now. This is not a great league and all the teams fighting for a play off place have been very inconsistent. It’s there for the taking. I believe we can do this now.
A huge set of fixtures between now and end of March.
6 matches against teams all still hoping for a top 7 finish, Sutton A, Bradford H, Stockport A, Wimbledon H, Salford A, & Northampton H and 2 strugglers in Harrogate H, & Crawley A
We don’t have to win all these games but it’s important we don’t lose many. Lose more than 2 against the 6 rivals then we are going to struggle.
The last 8 games after this run of 8 is much easier on paper. Only Stevenage A & Walsall A in the current top 15 teams.
If only results of games were that predictable. Anyway I am confident. Not going to arrange anything for the play off final weekend that is for sure.
Losing isn't so bad, as long as we pick up wins too. Wining 4 and losing 4 of those 8 is decent. Winning 5, losing 3 is good. Better than 4 wins 2 draws and 2 losses!!
Agree up to a point. No pun intended as what you say gives us 1 more point. So that’s good.
Losing 3 games to play off rivals though gives them more points where as draws keeps us on the same no of points.
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Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.
It’s not going to take much to get us into the playoffs.
We’re 2 points off and only 6 off the top 3.
We’ve been in play off form since late December
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Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.
It’s not going to take much to get us into the playoffs.
We’re 2 points off and only 6 off the top 3.
We’ve been in play off form since late December
We've got to get 72-75 points. That not "not much". It means we have got to continue form to the end of the season that we've only managed for about 1/3rd of the season to date.
That's not impossible, but neither is it "not much". It means we have to be close to our best game for 12-13 of the remaining games.
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Update after today.
1st 87 92
2nd 84 82
3rd 82 81
4th 79 79
5th 75 79
6th 73 76
7th 73 72
8th 70 69
9th 69 69
10th 69 69
11th 67 65
12th 64 65
13th 63 60
14th 61 58
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Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.
It’s not going to take much to get us into the playoffs.
We’re 2 points off and only 6 off the top 3.
We’ve been in play off form since late December
We've got to get 72-75 points. That not "not much". It means we have got to continue form to the end of the season that we've only managed for about 1/3rd of the season to date.
That's not impossible, but neither is it "not much". It means we have to be close to our best game for 12-13 of the remaining games.
But the side in the last play off spot have the same ppg as us, so they also need this “remarkable form” you talk of
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1) I didn't say "remarkable" form. It's hard enough discussing things sensibly with you as it is, without you inventing things I haven't said.
2) Look at the table.
To hit 72 points, this is how many PPG the following sides need between now and the end of the season.
Salford: 1.64
Bradford 1.50
Donny 1.73
Sutton 1.79
Swindon 1.80
Barring a slip from the sides in 6th and higher (not impossible, but let's leave that for now, as it doesn't make a great deal of difference to the argument), only one of those sides is going to make the playoffs. Odds are against any individual one of them hitting 72 points while the other 4 don't.
Chances are one will and the others won't. That might be us, but the likelihood is it won't be.
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Fact is, we’ve 15 games left and to get into the payoffs we need around 25 points. Over the last 15 games we’ve got 24 points, so pretty much we’ve just got to maintain the form we’ve been in since schofield took over
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Dickos.
You're not getting it.
If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.
Not impossible to envisage, but not likely.
The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.
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Dickos.
You're not getting it.
If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.
Not impossible to envisage, but not likely.
The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.
FWIW I think we'll miss out on the play-offs, but to be fair to Dickos, if the model you posted today at 5.27pm proves to be accurate at the end of the season, 70pts would be sufficient as 8th place is down to finish on 69pts.
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Dickos.
You're not getting it.
If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.
Not impossible to envisage, but not likely.
The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.
I am getting it,
We’re 3 points off the play offs with a game in hand, teams like Salford and Northampton are struggling big time, we maintain or current form and we will be on the brink of the playoffs, a slight improvement and we’re in the playoffs
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Dickos.
You're not getting it.
If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.
Not impossible to envisage, but not likely.
The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.
FWIW I think we'll miss out on the play-offs, but to be fair to Dickos, if the model you posted today at 5.27pm proves to be accurate at the end of the season, 70pts would be sufficient as 8th place is down to finish on 69pts.
Or 71 points won't be enough because 7th place is predicted to get 72.
Took me quite a few years of making this error to realise that what the model is saying is that, as things currently stand, the side finishing in 7th is likely to get 72 points and the side finishing in 8th is likely to get 69. That's different from saying "you're likely to finish 7th if you get more than 69 points.
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Dickos.
You're not getting it.
If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.
Not impossible to envisage, but not likely.
The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.
I am getting it,
We’re 3 points off the play offs with a game in hand, teams like Salford and Northampton are struggling big time, we maintain or current form and we will be on the brink of the playoffs, a slight improvement and we’re in the playoffs
Thank you. You've accepted that our long term form over any part of the season to date needs improving on.
Which was my point that you weren't happy with.
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I said it’s not going to take much, as in much improvement.
But the form over the last 15 games is almost good enough, and we’ve been very poor for part of that period. So it’s not going to take much improvement to reach that 72 points
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I said it’s not going to take much, as in much improvement.
But the form over the last 15 games is almost good enough, and we’ve been very poor for part of that period. So it’s not going to take much improvement to reach that 72 points
It requires us to average 1.73 PPG for the last 15 games. That's equivalent to 3rd/4th place form over a season.
I don't think you fully get that the "little" things are actually quite big things.
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So we need to improve from 1.6 to 1.73, not going on runs where we lose 3 on the bounce would mean we achieve that.
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Dickos.
You're not getting it.
If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.
Not impossible to envisage, but not likely.
The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.
FWIW I think we'll miss out on the play-offs, but to be fair to Dickos, if the model you posted today at 5.27pm proves to be accurate at the end of the season, 70pts would be sufficient as 8th place is down to finish on 69pts.
Or 71 points won't be enough because 7th place is predicted to get 72.
Took me quite a few years of making this error to realise that what the model is saying is that, as things currently stand, the side finishing in 7th is likely to get 72 points and the side finishing in 8th is likely to get 69. That's different from saying "you're likely to finish 7th if you get more than 69 points.
You're going to have to explain that one to me again then Billy. If the model is saying the 8th placed team is likely to get 69 points and that turns out to be more-or-less accurate, then I'm not sure why the 7th placed side NEEDS 72. They might be likely to GET 72, but they wouldn't NEED it - that points gap between 7th and 8th is just a forecast based on the model at this particular point in time. But that doesn't translate to what a team would need in real life terms. So it suggests to me that there is likely to be some small margin for error and dropped points in the run-in. What the 7th placed team needs is to better the points of 8th place.
I've never really got on board with this model because I don't really see how a forecast that fluctuates every week really tells us much, but if we are running with it and seriously discussing it then I don't think wires should get crossed between what we would need to make 7th position and what the team in 7th position is forecasted to get.
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After todays loss, rovers ppg ave for the season has dropped to 1.48. which if continued would give us 68 points. Or 11th based on bst calculations.
A win against Bradford would only increase this to 1.53.
With games running out, We are miles off anything above 1.7. A win increases the ppg by around 0.5. So we would need a run of 4 wins to get above 1.7.
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Pib
The point is that the model is NOT predicting what a TEAM NEEDS to get. It's predicting what the likely final points WILL BE for each position.
You're taking a part of that (predicted total for 8th position is 69 points) and concluding that you only need to get 70 points to finish in 7th place.
But that's a mistake.
Because the model is saying that the most likely points tally that the side finishing in 7th place will get is 72. So if that's right, you're not going to secure 7th place by getting 70 points.
What you're doing is saying we only need to do better than the predicted 8th place figure to get 7th place, but ignoring that fact that that would leave us behind the predicted total for 7th place.
The way I look at it, given how the model's numbers currently are, is that if we got 70 points, we'd be in a final position that is currently impossible to determine. Better than 8th but below 7th. A better mathematician than me would probably be able to explain it as a fallacy of applying continuous analysis to a discrete system.
I should of course say that there's nothing sacrosanct about the 69 and 72 points figures. They will inevitably jiggle around a bit as results come and go. I'd be astonished if in the final table, the team in 8th does have 69 points and the team in 7th, 72. It makes more sense to see it as a band. I'd say the likelihood is that 8th place will end up with 67-71 points and 7th with 71-75, with a bit more likelihood that the numbers will be in the middle of those bands.
Or of course, this could be the season where the entire model falls apart and it turns out I've been wasting my and everyone else's time.
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A loss against Bradford drops the ppg again to around 1.43. Which if continued would drop final points tally to around 65/66 points.
Which is mid table obscurity.
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After todays loss, rovers ppg ave for the season has dropped to 1.48. which if continued would give us 68 points. Or 11th based on bst calculations.
A win against Bradford would only increase this to 1.53.
With games running out, We are miles off anything above 1.7. A win increases the ppg by around 0.5. So we would need a run of 4 wins to get above 1.7.
I’m comparing the last 15 games, so over the last 15 games we’ve averaged 1.6ppg, pretty much Danny’s tenure that.
Continue this form and we will finish this season on 70 points.
This time last year Bristol rovers and port vale were 9th and 11th in the league
Both got promoted
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After todays loss, rovers ppg ave for the season has dropped to 1.48. which if continued would give us 68 points. Or 11th based on bst calculations.
A win against Bradford would only increase this to 1.53.
With games running out, We are miles off anything above 1.7. A win increases the ppg by around 0.5. So we would need a run of 4 wins to get above 1.7.
I’m comparing the last 15 games, so over the last 15 games we’ve averaged 1.6ppg, pretty much Danny’s tenure that.
Continue this form and we will finish this season on 70 points.
This time last year Bristol rovers and port vale were 9th and 11th in the league
Both got promoted
I'm not sure I understand the point you're making with respect to last year's promotions.
Port Vale ended the season P15 W9 D2 L4
Bristol Rovers ended the season P15 W10 D3 L2
So two sides won promotion from difficult positions by having exceptional form for the final 15 games. Is that what you think we will do?
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It looks quite simple what Dickos is saying.
If a team hits very good form over the last fifteen games then they can achieve promotion.
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For goodness sake fellas you are arguing about "what ifs"
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After todays loss, rovers ppg ave for the season has dropped to 1.48. which if continued would give us 68 points. Or 11th based on bst calculations.
A win against Bradford would only increase this to 1.53.
With games running out, We are miles off anything above 1.7. A win increases the ppg by around 0.5. So we would need a run of 4 wins to get above 1.7.
I’m comparing the last 15 games, so over the last 15 games we’ve averaged 1.6ppg, pretty much Danny’s tenure that.
Continue this form and we will finish this season on 70 points.
This time last year Bristol rovers and port vale were 9th and 11th in the league
Both got promoted
I'm not sure I understand the point you're making with respect to last year's promotions.
Port Vale ended the season P15 W9 D2 L4
Bristol Rovers ended the season P15 W10 D3 L2
So two sides won promotion from difficult positions by having exceptional form for the final 15 games. Is that what you think we will do?
Do you think the port vale and Bristol suppprters thought they could do it? Bristol went up automatically from similar form to us.
Dismissing it because of what we’ve done so far seems daft to me
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No-one is dismissing it. I just suggest it's unlikely that we will get 33 points from the final 15 games. Not impossible. Just unlikely. You want to dream about that happening? Fine, fill your boots.
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I’m looking at it purely from a statistical perspective using ppg which obv changes with each and every game. A winning run changes things dramatically, as does a losing run.
A win here and there interspersed with losses changes little. And we don’t seem to be picking up points from draws. In fact we have drawn the least amount of games to date. Just 4. Along with our lack of strike power our ability to not get at least one point will no doubt be the Achilles heel for reaching the playoffs.
Yesterdays game, the Hartlepool game and the one at orient being good recent example.
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No-one is dismissing it. I just suggest it's unlikely that we will get 33 points from the final 15 games. Not impossible. Just unlikely. You want to dream about that happening? Fine, fill your boots.
Majority of the things that happen in football are unlikely,
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BST is just doing this for a bit of fun and I thank him for that. It’s just one way of looking at what might happen in future based on past events. But we all know from life this can never be 100% accurate. Stuff happens.
Last season we had literally months of people saying we are already down. We cannot stay up because our form is terrible. Look at the ppg , we’re hopeless etc. But other teams lose too. As it turned out we could have stayed up without our form being massively better. It’s fine margins as we know. Winning one game against a close rival would have done.
The fact is we’re in with a decent chance of the playoffs. We have players who can produce a good performance sometimes. Weeks ago many forum sages were saying forget it we’ve no chance with this squad.
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Weeks ago some were predicting non league.
And here we are , 4 points from the magical 50 with 15 games left.
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Weeks ago some were predicting non league.
And here we are , 4 points from the magical 50 with 15 games left.
No way does the bottom 2 in L2 get anywhere near 50 points in any season, we’ve been safe for a good few games now
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Weeks ago some were predicting non league.
And here we are , 4 points from the magical 50 with 15 games left.
Imo we are already safe. I don’t see any of the bottom 3 getting 46 points never mind the bottom 2
Talk of National League was always ridiculous. This squad is far better than last season & has got far too much ability and nous to be anywhere near the bottom of this league.
Anyway I think we can all look upwards from this point onwards. One prediction I will make is we will win more than we lose from the last 15 games. Whether we make the play offs or not I don’t know.
But what I do know is we could.
Need to get Miller scoring goals again. Think that’s the key.
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No-one is dismissing it. I just suggest it's unlikely that we will get 33 points from the final 15 games. Not impossible. Just unlikely. You want to dream about that happening? Fine, fill your boots.
Majority of the things that happen in football are unlikely,
Agreed.
But just because SOME unlikely things happen, doesn't mean that a specific unlikely thing will happen.
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Think we’ll get 7 wins and 3 draws out of our remaining games.
Would take us to 70 points and probably a 9th placed finish.
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Think we’ll get 7 wins and 3 draws out of our remaining games.
Would take us to 70 points and probably a 9th placed finish.
Get your sen down the bookies then.
Imo, there is no chance of this happening.
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We have 15 games left. In the last 15 games we have won 8, drawn 0, lost 7. That’s 24 points and exactly equivalent to 7 wins and 3 draws.
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We have 15 games left. In the last 15 games we have won 8, drawn 0, lost 7. That’s 24 points and exactly equivalent to 7 wins and 3 draws.
That’s two off to the bookies. Good luck.
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Nine wins, three draws, three losses, that would take us to seventy six points.
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Nine wins, three draws, three losses, that would take us to seventy six points.
That's title-winning form for a third of the season.
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We have 15 games left. In the last 15 games we have won 8, drawn 0, lost 7. That’s 24 points and exactly equivalent to 7 wins and 3 draws.
That’s two off to the bookies. Good luck.
I’ve expressed no view either way. I’ve given you facts, which you can read into what you wish.
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71 or 72 points will be needed for 7th as previously stated. We are likely to finish about 9th or 10th on 66/67.
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Nine wins, three draws, three losses, that would take us to seventy six points.
That's title-winning form for a third of the season.
Looking at the fixtures left that’s what I see happening. If so then we would be happy to be in the playoffs, but thinking what if we had started the season like this, we could have been champions ?
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So yeah. If we'd had title winning form all season, we would win the title.
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And so, after today, the ppg has dropped to 1.42 ppg.
That’s 65/66 points come season end. Ish.
Which is 12 or 13th.
Unless there is a serious turnaround in form.
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What’s the latest calc BST?
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10 points from the last 6 games is a v good return.
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What’s the latest calc BST?
Coming up.
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Update after today.
1st 87 92 90
2nd 84 82 87
3rd 82 81 80
4th 79 79 79
5th 75 79 77
6th 73 76 76
7th 73 72 76
8th 70 69 75
9th 69 69 72
10th 69 69 67
11th 67 65 64
12th 64 65 64
13th 63 60 63
14th 61 58 57
The totals for all but one position have stayed within a +/2.5 point range over the last the and a half weeks. But a number of sides around the playoffs have hit form, pushing up the predicted points totals for some positions.
That's the flip side to Dickos's comment about 10 points from 6 games being a decent return. It isn't bad, especially in the context of the quality of opposition in those games. But it's no better than Carlilse, Northampton, Salford, Tranmere and Barrow, worse than Sutton and significantly worse than Stockport, Mansfield and Bradford.
Given that we were already playing catch up on most of those sides even before the recent run of 6 games, we have slipped even further behind them.
The predictor hasn't yet predicted a final total of less than 72 points for 7th place. That would require us to finish P13 W8 D1 L4.
If today's 76 point target is right, we'd have to end the season P13 W9 D2 L2
Title winning to exceptional title winning form required for the last 30% of the season.
It's not impossible, but you're a braver man than me if you put big money on it.
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PS. The predictor doesn't predict individual team's final position, but for information, if we keep our form over the last ten games going to the end of the season, we finish in 11th-12th place with 64 points.
Keep the form over the last 6 games going and we finish 9th-10th with 68-69 points. We're likely to need at least something close to 2 points a game from here on in to have a chance of scraping into 7th place.
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The next two home games are massive if we win them both then we’ve got 16 points from 8 games.
Continue at that rate and we will end the season on 73 points which will be borderline
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PS. The predictor doesn't predict individual team's final position, but for information, if we keep our form over the last ten games going to the end of the season, we finish in 11th-12th place with 64 points.
Keep the form over the last 6 games going and we finish 9th-10th with 68-69 points. We're likely to need at least something close to 2 points a game from here on in to have a chance of scraping into 7th place.
If you look at the next 6 games (4 at home, 2 away) we could realistically get 14 points (draws against Salford & Northampton wins against Harrogate, Wimbledon, Crawley & Crewe). This would put us on 61pts with 7 to play. Looking at the last 7 we have a good chance of getting 12 pts. It is an extremely difficult ask to do the above but can be done. We are not conceding as many as we had been and look alot more secure at the back. We need GM to find his early season form & we may have an outside chance of getting to 73 points after 46 games. Tough but definitely doable.
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Bessie.
I agree. It's possible but very unlikely. And the predictor currently says that would only be enough for 8th-9th place.
We CAN make the playoffs of course. But it would require form that we haven't exhibited for several years.
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The next two home games are massive if we win them both then we’ve got 16 points from 8 games.
Continue at that rate and we will end the season on 73 points which will be borderline
I do sometimes admire your blind optimism but we go entire games without really looking like scoring, I really don't see it.
More chance of the divisions in the fan base being healed in May than Rovers reaching the playoffs, I think.
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We aren’t getting in the playoffs. Have as good an end to this season as possible and try to carry that into next season for me
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. The lack of games drawn will be the downfall, as well as a pitiful ability to find the back of the net.
It’s not been a good season. Again.
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18 goals scored in 20 games at 0.9 goals per game. 4 of which were scored in one game against Rochdale and we’ve only scored in 10 of them. This would suggest we’re not getting anywhere near the playoffs.
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Sat with a coffee contemplating the season so far.
It could have been much much worse is what I am consoling myself with.
Playoffs now is utter fantasy. Roy of the rovers stuff.
I’d like to see a resurgent rovers becoming more cohesive and find their goals scoring abilities in the closing games to the season. And wouldn’t it be great to put a few teams to the sword. Finish on a relative high perhaps.
And of course, Rovers must go to Stevenage and give the bloated toad something to moan about. That would be nice.
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Even if we somehow managed to sneak into the play offs we would only be filling a spot, inability to score against our promotion rivals of late will be our downfall.
Let’s hope next season we have a better output with goals
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We aren’t getting in the playoffs. Have as good an end to this season as possible and try to carry that into next season for me
Agreed, you never know we could even try to entertain the supporters. Maybe grab ourselves a corner, create a few chances, score a goal even. Might help sell a few season tickets, you never know.
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We all know that my "ladbrokes hard thread" produced a double figure return and as you can see we are 6th over the last 6 games.
But what we have all miised is that "The Vikings" are on current form are likely to have a new nickname "The Laundrymen" fairly soon on that form
We have kept clean sheets in 4 out of those matches against non rubbish teams - conceeding 3 goals in the 6 games.
We are currently 13th with 13 matches to play. Only 3 of these are against teams above us
namely decaying Stevenage ( with a very short half life decay rate [Sorry Scawsby if you don't know wott I am on about] ..... Salford and Sutton .
Yes it is USUALLY logical to argue we need to be playing teams above us
but the cunning plan is for these teams to catch the "draw disease " that has infested Sincil Bank Lincoln all season. Surely a lot of the teams above us must have a lot of matches to play against each other ?
Bentley Bullet (his dad, Wolfie and his uncle Scawsby Steve) will all of course remember the last disease Lincoln had in season 1904-05
https://www.familyhistorydiggers.com/post/a-moment-in-time-in-lincoln
So we will be playing 10 teams with nothing to play for.
In Colemans World the 4th to 7th teams are cast in stone to finish in the top 7 and the Champion might be a team currently in 4th to 7th
So that's iit game over you say ! Au contraire mon Ami
Basically the plan involves us winning our next two games and Stevenage getting no more than 4 points from their next 2 games
that would cut the gap down to eleven points with us to go there - assuming we beat them that's 8 points we need to make up. ( yes I am ignoring goal difference)
their next two home games are Walsall and Crewe at home
then they have
Carlisle AWAY
Salford HOME
Northampton AWAY
and of course easier matches after that
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/stevenage/fixtures-results
they lost 2-0 (note not 1-0) to Rochdale yesterday and mid-week were 2-0 down to now out of form Wimbledon before winning away. made 4 changes in the 2nd half and he probably threw that many cups of tea against the wall at half time.
As you can see they are 22nd out of 24 over the last 6 games won 1 -- drawn 1 -- lost 4
So that's my cunning plan to get newly named "Laundrymen " into the play-offs
that being the only way we can make it.
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We all know that my "ladbrokes hard thread" produced a double figure return and as you can see we are 6th over the last 6 games.
But what we have all miised is that "The Vikings" are on current form are likely to have a new nickname "The Laundrymen" fairly soon on that form
We have kept clean sheets in 4 out of those matches against non rubbish teams - conceeding 3 goals in the 6 games.
We are currently 13th with 13 matches to play. Only 3 of these are against teams above us
namely decaying Stevenage ( with a very short half life decay rate [Sorry Scawsby if you don't know wott I am on about] ..... Salford and Sutton .
Yes it is USUALLY logical to argue we need to be playing teams above us
but the cunning plan is for these teams to catch the "draw disease " that has infested Sincil Bank Lincoln all season. Surely a lot of the teams above us must have a lot of matches to play against each other ?
Bentley Bullet (his dad, Wolfie and his uncle Scawsby Steve) will all of course remember the last disease Lincoln had in season 1904-05
https://www.familyhistorydiggers.com/post/a-moment-in-time-in-lincoln
So we will be playing 10 teams with nothing to play for.
In Colemans World the 4th to 7th teams are cast in stone to finish in the top 7 and the Champion might be a team currently in 4th to 7th
So that's iit game over you say ! Au contraire mon Ami
Basically the plan involves us winning our next two games and Stevenage getting no more than 4 points from their next 2 games
that would cut the gap down to eleven points with us to go there - assuming we beat them that's 8 points we need to make up. ( yes I am ignoring goal difference)
their next two home games are Walsall and Crewe at home
then they have
Carlisle AWAY
Salford HOME
Northampton AWAY
and of course easier matches after that
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/stevenage/fixtures-results
they lost 2-0 (note not 1-0) to Rochdale yesterday and mid-week were 2-0 down to now out of form Wimbledon before winning away. made 4 changes in the 2nd half and he probably threw that many cups of tea against the wall at half time.
As you can see they are 22nd out of 24 over the last 6 games won 1 -- drawn 1 -- lost 4
So that's my cunning plan to get newly named "Laundrymen " into the play-offs
that being the only way we can make it.
We've already played Sutton twice.
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thanks for the correction ... it's even more strange playing only 2 clubs above us and 11 who are below
looking at the 13 matches again
the relegation contenders are Harrogate (we play twice) Hartlepool, Rochdale & Crawley (we play away)
so 8 matches are against teams "on the so called beach" nothing to play for teams.
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I see us beating Harrogate, draw with Wimbledon, beat Salford, Crawley and Northampton. Thirteen points out of possible fifteen.
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I see us beating Harrogate, draw with Wimbledon, beat Salford, Crawley and Northampton. Thirteen points out of possible fifteen.
That would make one hell of an acca.
I’ve just worked it out. 4 wins based on rovers being even money and a 12/5 draw would be around 53/1.
In reality it would be much more than this. But it gives you an idea.
Worth a quid or two at the bookies if you are that confident.
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If the two away games had rovers at 2/1 that would push the acca to around 120/1
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We all know that my "ladbrokes hard thread" produced a double figure return and as you can see we are 6th over the last 6 games.
But what we have all miised is that "The Vikings" are on current form are likely to have a new nickname "The Laundrymen" fairly soon on that form
We have kept clean sheets in 4 out of those matches against non rubbish teams - conceeding 3 goals in the 6 games.
We are currently 13th with 13 matches to play. Only 3 of these are against teams above us
namely decaying Stevenage ( with a very short half life decay rate [Sorry Scawsby if you don't know wott I am on about] ..... Salford and Sutton .
Yes it is USUALLY logical to argue we need to be playing teams above us
but the cunning plan is for these teams to catch the "draw disease " that has infested Sincil Bank Lincoln all season. Surely a lot of the teams above us must have a lot of matches to play against each other ?
Bentley Bullet (his dad, Wolfie and his uncle Scawsby Steve) will all of course remember the last disease Lincoln had in season 1904-05
https://www.familyhistorydiggers.com/post/a-moment-in-time-in-lincoln
So we will be playing 10 teams with nothing to play for.
In Colemans World the 4th to 7th teams are cast in stone to finish in the top 7 and the Champion might be a team currently in 4th to 7th
So that's iit game over you say ! Au contraire mon Ami
Basically the plan involves us winning our next two games and Stevenage getting no more than 4 points from their next 2 games
that would cut the gap down to eleven points with us to go there - assuming we beat them that's 8 points we need to make up. ( yes I am ignoring goal difference)
their next two home games are Walsall and Crewe at home
then they have
Carlisle AWAY
Salford HOME
Northampton AWAY
and of course easier matches after that
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/stevenage/fixtures-results
they lost 2-0 (note not 1-0) to Rochdale yesterday and mid-week were 2-0 down to now out of form Wimbledon before winning away. made 4 changes in the 2nd half and he probably threw that many cups of tea against the wall at half time.
As you can see they are 22nd out of 24 over the last 6 games won 1 -- drawn 1 -- lost 4
So that's my cunning plan to get newly named "Laundrymen " into the play-offs
that being the only way we can make it.
We've already played Sutton twice.
That "Stevenage being the weakest link" theory has quickly gone in the bin ( I won't mention someone's ACCA - having take off problems :crying:)and the fat lady was getting ready to perform the last rites on our promotion chances at Crewe on Friday night when Saltford Lake City took the lead in the 85th minute.
Don't ask me how The Railway men managed to become their bogie team and beat them.
So with us visiting their paddy field on Saturday we still have a micro-chance of the play offs . They have an exceptionally fast right winger - who hopefully will be slowed down by the pitch.
As I highlighted a while ago Stevenage also have to play Salford which hopefully ( in my dreams you say) will be of significance to us.
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I see us beating Harrogate, draw with Wimbledon, beat Salford, Crawley and Northampton. Thirteen points out of possible fifteen.
Just re visited this thread.
I hope you kept your money in your pocket.
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Predictor is currently saying 75 points for 7th place.
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Well that’s only the modest task of 25 points from our remaining 11 games at 2.27 ppg.
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Well that’s only the modest task of 25 points from our remaining 11 games at 2.27 ppg.
EASY. Walk in the park.
2nd thoughts it would be quite something if we achieved 75 points now.
If we win the next 3 Salford A, Crawley A & Northampton H, then it would actually be feasible looking at our last 8 games. 16 points needed to get that BST predicted required 75. ( could be 73 to 77 imo. ) so 75 agree is the mean no.
Then we only have Stevenage A to play in top 14 teams in the current table.
Are we capable of winning the next 3 games though? Knowing us we will win v Salford and Northampton and get beat at Crawley. That would just sum up this season.
I am still trying to be positive because that’s the only way to be.
This Manager and team keep bringing me down to earth though with a jolt. We are so consistently inconsistent. Can it change. Are we capable of going on a long unbeaten run?
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It’s odd being 6 points off 7th currently and thinking it’s achievable. 7 points given the gd.
The reality being so much different.
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7 points is a massive gap with only 10-11 games to play. It means you have to outperform the team in 7th by a level equivalent to 30 points if maintained over a season.
We'd need something like 2.2 points per game from here on in, and them to average 1.5. And no other team to have a surge in form.
It's not impossible of course, but it is very, very unlikely. Maybe a 40/1 shot.
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It’s odd being 6 points off 7th currently and thinking it’s achievable. 7 points given the gd.
The reality being so much different.
The reality is exactly as it is. 6 points off top 7 with a game in hand.
GD is another point of course.
Anything else is fiction. Not different NR. But I know what you mean
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The reality is that it's mathematically within our grasp; but this team isn't good enough to obtain the points on offer.
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The reality is that it's mathematically within our grasp; but this team isn't good enough to obtain the points on offer.
You’re probably right SS but the proof of that is where we are on 6th May. Not 15th March.
33 points still to play for.
Let’s wait for the Fat Lady to start singing first. It could be before the end of March if we follow the seasons trend of results.
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Just being pedantic Camps, but the last day of the season has been put back to 8th May because of the Coronation.
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Just being pedantic Camps, but the last day of the season has been put back to 8th May because of the Coronation.
I can't stand pedantry on this forum.
It's something that I never do.
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Just being pedantic Camps, but the last day of the season has been put back to 8th May because of the Coronation.
I can't stand pedantry on this forum.
It's something that I never do.
LoL. You are jealous coz I got there before you did mate. Come on, admit it.
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7 points is a massive gap with only 10-11 games to play. It means you have to outperform the team in 7th by a level equivalent to 30 points if maintained over a season.
We'd need something like 2.2 points per game from here on in, and them to average 1.5. And no other team to have a surge in form.
It's not impossible of course, but it is very, very unlikely. Maybe a 40/1 shot.
Sky bet have rovers to finish in the top 7 at an unbelievably short 12/1 today.
Do they know something we don’t?
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7 points is a massive gap with only 10-11 games to play. It means you have to outperform the team in 7th by a level equivalent to 30 points if maintained over a season.
We'd need something like 2.2 points per game from here on in, and them to average 1.5. And no other team to have a surge in form.
It's not impossible of course, but it is very, very unlikely. Maybe a 40/1 shot.
Sky bet have rovers to finish in the top 7 at an unbelievably short 12/1 today.
Do they know something we don’t?
They have us at 14/1 to make the playoffs, so 12/1 to make the top 7 implies a 100/1 price against us making the top 3. Whereas in fact the actual price they offer against us making the top 3 is 250/1.
I'd say 250/1 is still not generous. Even if we won our last 11 games (have we ever won 11 on the bounce? We only managed 10 in 46/47) Carlisle would still bat us if they kept up their season-long form to date up to the end of the season.
I'd want 2000/1 against before I'd think about putting ten bob on us to make the top 3.
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Just being pedantic Camps, but the last day of the season has been put back to 8th May because of the Coronation.
I can't stand pedantry on this forum.
It's something that I never do.
I know what you had for lunch "porkies pies" and I claim my £5 :laugh:
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7 points is a massive gap with only 10-11 games to play. It means you have to outperform the team in 7th by a level equivalent to 30 points if maintained over a season.
We'd need something like 2.2 points per game from here on in, and them to average 1.5. And no other team to have a surge in form.
It's not impossible of course, but it is very, very unlikely. Maybe a 40/1 shot.
Sky bet have rovers to finish in the top 7 at an unbelievably short 12/1 today.
Do they know something we don’t?
They have us at 14/1 to make the playoffs, so 12/1 to make the top 7 implies a 100/1 price against us making the top 3. Whereas in fact the actual price they offer against us making the top 3 is 250/1.
I'd say 250/1 is still not generous. Even if we won our last 11 games (have we ever won 11 on the bounce? We only managed 10 in 46/47) Carlisle would still bat us if they kept up their season-long form to date up to the end of the season.
I'd want 2000/1 against before I'd think about putting ten bob on us to make the top 3.
250/1 is outrageous. utter fantasy stuff for rovers to get auto now.needs a nought adding. and then some.
but then , the bookies arent there to lose money.
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We all know that my "ladbrokes hard thread" produced a double figure return and as you can see we are 6th over the last 6 games.
But what we have all miised is that "The Vikings" are on current form are likely to have a new nickname "The Laundrymen" fairly soon on that form
We have kept clean sheets in 4 out of those matches against non rubbish teams - conceeding 3 goals in the 6 games.
We are currently 13th with 13 matches to play. Only 3 of these are against teams above us
namely decaying Stevenage ( with a very short half life decay rate [Sorry Scawsby if you don't know wott I am on about] ..... Salford and Sutton .
Yes it is USUALLY logical to argue we need to be playing teams above us
but the cunning plan is for these teams to catch the "draw disease " that has infested Sincil Bank Lincoln all season. Surely a lot of the teams above us must have a lot of matches to play against each other ?
Bentley Bullet (his dad, Wolfie and his uncle Scawsby Steve) will all of course remember the last disease Lincoln had in season 1904-05
https://www.familyhistorydiggers.com/post/a-moment-in-time-in-lincoln
So we will be playing 10 teams with nothing to play for.
In Colemans World the 4th to 7th teams are cast in stone to finish in the top 7 and the Champion might be a team currently in 4th to 7th
So that's iit game over you say ! Au contraire mon Ami
Basically the plan involves us winning our next two games and Stevenage getting no more than 4 points from their next 2 games
that would cut the gap down to eleven points with us to go there - assuming we beat them that's 8 points we need to make up. ( yes I am ignoring goal difference)
their next two home games are Walsall and Crewe at home
then they have
Carlisle AWAY
Salford HOME
Northampton AWAY
and of course easier matches after that
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/stevenage/fixtures-results
they lost 2-0 (note not 1-0) to Rochdale yesterday and mid-week were 2-0 down to now out of form Wimbledon before winning away. made 4 changes in the 2nd half and he probably threw that many cups of tea against the wall at half time.
As you can see they are 22nd out of 24 over the last 6 games won 1 -- drawn 1 -- lost 4
So that's my cunning plan to get newly named "Laundrymen " into the play-offs
that being the only way we can make it.
We've already played Sutton twice.
That "Stevenage being the weakest link" theory has quickly gone in the bin ( I won't mention someone's ACCA - having take off problems :crying:)and the fat lady was getting ready to perform the last rites on our promotion chances at Crewe on Friday night when Saltford Lake City took the lead in the 85th minute.
Don't ask me how The Railway men managed to become their bogie team and beat them.
So with us visiting their paddy field on Saturday we still have a micro-chance of the play offs . They have an exceptionally fast right winger - who hopefully will be slowed down by the pitch.
As I highlighted a while ago Stevenage also have to play Salford which hopefully ( in my dreams you say) will be of significance to us.
I thought i would check out the "pedigree chum of this exceptionally fast winger -after he scored two goals aginst us today.
https://salfordcityfc.co.uk/players/luke-bolton/
Luke Bolton (Midfielder) | Salford City Football Club
Salford City FC
https://salfordcityfc.co.uk › players › luke-bolton
bolton salford winger from salfordcityfc.co.uk
Pacy winger Luke Bolton signed a two-and-a-half year deal with The Ammies in January 2022 after leaving Manchester City's academy, where he came through
Well I did say he was exceptionally fast not fast - it seems he read my my complement and was inspired to score 2 gioals agianst us to add to the 4 goals he had scored in 58 matches for Salford grrrrrrrh!! sorry about that folks :chair:
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We all know that my "ladbrokes hard thread" produced a double figure return and as you can see we are 6th over the last 6 games.
But what we have all miised is that "The Vikings" are on current form are likely to have a new nickname "The Laundrymen" fairly soon on that form
We have kept clean sheets in 4 out of those matches against non rubbish teams - conceeding 3 goals in the 6 games.
We are currently 13th with 13 matches to play. Only 3 of these are against teams above us
namely decaying Stevenage ( with a very short half life decay rate [Sorry Scawsby if you don't know wott I am on about] ..... Salford and Sutton .
Yes it is USUALLY logical to argue we need to be playing teams above us
but the cunning plan is for these teams to catch the "draw disease " that has infested Sincil Bank Lincoln all season. Surely a lot of the teams above us must have a lot of matches to play against each other ?
Bentley Bullet (his dad, Wolfie and his uncle Scawsby Steve) will all of course remember the last disease Lincoln had in season 1904-05
https://www.familyhistorydiggers.com/post/a-moment-in-time-in-lincoln
So we will be playing 10 teams with nothing to play for.
In Colemans World the 4th to 7th teams are cast in stone to finish in the top 7 and the Champion might be a team currently in 4th to 7th
So that's iit game over you say ! Au contraire mon Ami
Basically the plan involves us winning our next two games and Stevenage getting no more than 4 points from their next 2 games
that would cut the gap down to eleven points with us to go there - assuming we beat them that's 8 points we need to make up. ( yes I am ignoring goal difference)
their next two home games are Walsall and Crewe at home
then they have
Carlisle AWAY
Salford HOME
Northampton AWAY
and of course easier matches after that
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/stevenage/fixtures-results
they lost 2-0 (note not 1-0) to Rochdale yesterday and mid-week were 2-0 down to now out of form Wimbledon before winning away. made 4 changes in the 2nd half and he probably threw that many cups of tea against the wall at half time.
As you can see they are 22nd out of 24 over the last 6 games won 1 -- drawn 1 -- lost 4
So that's my cunning plan to get newly named "Laundrymen " into the play-offs
that being the only way we can make it.
you can see on March 5th after that very good draw O-O away at Stockport i targetted Stevenage Not Mansfield -- ( Mansfield's 4 games left include Stevenage and Leyton Orient - both at home for what it is worth)
Stevenage really tried their best to contribute to my Cunning plan for Rovers to make the play offs
as their stuttering form including losing at Rochdale contiued .
starting with the predicted easy home win over Harrrogate to date we have won one drawn 2 and lost 6 of the following 9 matches taking 5 points out a possible 27
we are now 21 points behind Stevenage and
still ONLY 14 points behind Mansfield
does anyone remember when they said we were the better team away at Mansfield when we lost 4-1 ??
to repeat out of those 9 games we are 1-2-6 for 5 points out of 27
let's say our results over those 9 games were
5-2-2- =17 points ( 4-5-1 also yields 17 points)
the difference between my mythical 17 points and our actual 5 points is 12 points so
for Stevenage we would now be not the actual 21 but 21 less 12 = 9 points behind before Tuesdays match
and regarding Mansfield we would now not be actual 14 points but 14 less 12 points which is a mere 2 points behind Mansfield
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looking at it another way
if we had beaten Harrogate home = 3 points more
Crawley if we had won = 2 points more
Crewe if we had won = 3 points more
Grimsby if we had won = 3 points more
Harrogate if we had won = 2 points more
I am letting the other results (3 defeats to Salford - Northampton and Gillingham - "stand" and if we had won those five easy matches (yes the Grimsby was a bit harder than the other 4)
then we would have had 13 more points
which is one more point than the first example gave us
in this second example was I really asking that much from our results ???
if -if and if you say
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of i forgot to mention about all the drawn matches I said would happen when the top echelon met
this is the form table for the last 10 matches not 9
Bradford 5 draws 3 matches 0-0
Orient 5 including 4 in a row
Mansfield 5 draws
Stevenages record over the last 10 is better than I thought 4-4-2
but they had already lost a few after losing in the facup at Stoke
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CLH what on earth is all that about. :zzz:
Well your posts are more interesting than listening to DS’s post match interviews and probably make more sense than DS’s way of setting up the team. :facepalm: :)
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CLH what on earth is all that about. :zzz:
Well your posts are more interesting than listening to DS’s post match interviews and probably make more sense than DS’s way of setting up the team. :facepalm: :)
Ok Camps I realise you are the founder member of this "set" and I claim my £5
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65293430
why don't you try reading my post from a different angle :aok:
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Last 12 games.
6 pts out of a possible 36.
Thats 0.5 ppg.
Which equates to a mere 23 point season.
Certain relegation material.
I can’t see that much changing next season.
DS would make Ronaldo look average.
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Last 12 games.
6 pts out of a possible 36.
Thats 0.5 ppg.
Which equates to a mere 23 point season.
Certain relegation material.
I can’t see that much changing next season.
DS would make Ronaldo look average.
He seems to have improved Barlow beyond comprehension.
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Or was the ability always there and is now showing by being played in the approprate position?
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Last 12 games.
6 pts out of a possible 36.
Thats 0.5 ppg.
Which equates to a mere 23 point season.
Certain relegation material.
I can’t see that much changing next season.
DS would make Ronaldo look average.
He seems to have improved Barlow beyond comprehension.
1 players out of 11.
Good going.
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Last 12 games.
6 pts out of a possible 36.
Thats 0.5 ppg.
Which equates to a mere 23 point season.
Certain relegation material.
I can’t see that much changing next season.
DS would make Ronaldo look average.
He seems to have improved Barlow beyond comprehension.
Rather the injury crisis has forced his hand, no manager has given him a chance or run of games, theres always been a player in there given a chance
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Last 12 games.
6 pts out of a possible 36.
Thats 0.5 ppg.
Which equates to a mere 23 point season.
Certain relegation material.
I can’t see that much changing next season.
DS would make Ronaldo look average.
He seems to have improved Barlow beyond comprehension.
And made all the others worse.
Barlow having 45 mins looking like a player is some major achievement from DS then is it?
What has he done to Kyle Hurst. Probably the most gifted player we have. He is now a shadow of what he was earlier in the season.
Confidence has been destroyed. Brilliant.
Dickos not sure what your agenda is but you are desperately trying to find some positives from DS’s tenure as Head Coach.
The fact is there are none whatsoever of any meaningful significance.
We are a worse team now than what we were before he arrived. We were marginally better for a short while but have failed to show any improvement game by game.
The football is turgid and the results are and have been bottom 2 for 2 around months. 6 points from 12 games.
Any Chairman worth his salt would have sacked him well before now. The fact that he is still in this job is extremely concerning. It wouldn’t have been the case at any other EFL club. Not one.
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Camps why can't you express your opinion without having a pop at Dickos? If he annoys you that much put him on ignore
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Last 12 games.
6 pts out of a possible 36.
Thats 0.5 ppg.
Which equates to a mere 23 point season.
Certain relegation material.
I can’t see that much changing next season.
DS would make Ronaldo look average.
He seems to have improved Barlow beyond comprehension.
And made all the others worse.
Barlow having 45 mins looking like a player is some major achievement from DS then is it?
What has he done to Kyle Hurst. Probably the most gifted player we have. He is now a shadow of what he was earlier in the season.
Confidence has been destroyed. Brilliant.
Dickos not sure what your agenda is but you are desperately trying to find some positives from DS’s tenure as Head Coach.
The fact is there are none whatsoever of any meaningful significance.
We are a worse team now than what we were before he arrived. We were marginally better for a short while but have failed to show any improvement game by game.
The football is turgid and the results are and have been bottom 2 for 2 around months. 6 points from 12 games.
Any Chairman worth his salt would have sacked him well before now. The fact that he is still in this job is extremely concerning. It wouldn’t have been the case at any other EFL club. Not one.
45 mins?
He’s been our best player in the last 3 games!
Seaman looks better under him, biggins was playing better under him, Maxwell was playing better under him,