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Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: GazLaz on May 15, 2024, 02:02:32 pm

Title: Wing Kings
Post by: GazLaz on May 15, 2024, 02:02:32 pm
xG and xA output from our wide men per 90min…

Molyneux 4038 minutes-

xG- 0.15
xA- 0.18

Total- 0.33

Adelakun 1829 minutes-

xG- 0.18
xA- 0.13

Total- 0.31

Hurst 707 minutes-

xG- 0.25
xA- 0.23

Total- 0.48


Interesting.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: craigdrfc on May 15, 2024, 02:10:58 pm
I fancy Hurst may be a big player for us next season. He impressed me when given cameo roles this season under McCann.

Personally I dont see both of (or either of) Moly and Haks signing back up.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: DonnyOsmond on May 15, 2024, 02:14:50 pm
Hurst was brilliant at the end of the season, but I do wonder if those figures have a lot to with game state though, bringing him on to run at tiring defenders was a great option.

I do think we need one starter to be an Adelakun type in that they'll look to stretch the oppositions defence and get onto balls over the top.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Lifelong supporter on May 15, 2024, 02:19:20 pm

What does xG and xA mean please?
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Northants Nomad on May 15, 2024, 02:19:47 pm
If only football was played on Excel, eh?
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: philsky on May 15, 2024, 02:23:55 pm

What does xG and xA mean please?

Same question from me please
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: mushRTID on May 15, 2024, 02:28:58 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: CJK on May 15, 2024, 02:30:20 pm
Expected goals and expected assists.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: GazLaz on May 15, 2024, 02:43:53 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Padge_DRFC on May 15, 2024, 02:46:21 pm
So Adelakun has completely outperformed then. Based on XG v actual goals.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: pib on May 15, 2024, 02:49:26 pm
We saw last season (in a shit side) that Hurst is a cracking player. Struggled to get going this season due to injuries, and by the time he did get fully fit, Haks came in. I think he can play a big part, especially if we don't get LM and/or HA signed up. I'd have him down as a starter for next season.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Mike_F on May 15, 2024, 02:55:29 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.

He does need to be good to get those numbers but they'd be even better if they achieved over a bigger sample time, the majority of which was against players with fresh legs. When a full-back has been run ragged for 70 mins by Moly and/or Haks it'll be easier for Hurst to deliver promising attacking plays.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: GazLaz on May 15, 2024, 03:01:49 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.

He does need to be good to get those numbers but they'd be even better if they achieved over a bigger sample time, the majority of which was against players with fresh legs. When a full-back has been run ragged for 70 mins by Moly and/or Haks it'll be easier for Hurst to deliver promising attacking plays.

Adjust them down by 20% and they are still good. Small sample obviously, which you can adjust for again, but they would still be really good.   
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: ravenrover on May 15, 2024, 03:15:44 pm
xG and xA output from our wide men per 90min…

Molyneux 4038 minutes-

xG- 0.15
xA- 0.18

Total- 0.33

Adelakun 1829 minutes-

xG- 0.18
xA- 0.13

Total- 0.31

Hurst 707 minutes-

xG- 0.25
xA- 0.23

Total- 0.48


Interesting.
For the older members what does this all mean?
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Mike_F on May 15, 2024, 03:30:22 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.

He does need to be good to get those numbers but they'd be even better if they achieved over a bigger sample time, the majority of which was against players with fresh legs. When a full-back has been run ragged for 70 mins by Moly and/or Haks it'll be easier for Hurst to deliver promising attacking plays.

Adjust them down by 20% and they are still good. Small sample obviously, which you can adjust for again, but they would still be really good.   

That's good to know. I really rate Hurst; he has bags of potential and I was a bit concerned when rumour had it that McCann wasn't a fan of his earlier in the season.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: GazLaz on May 15, 2024, 03:51:06 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.

He does need to be good to get those numbers but they'd be even better if they achieved over a bigger sample time, the majority of which was against players with fresh legs. When a full-back has been run ragged for 70 mins by Moly and/or Haks it'll be easier for Hurst to deliver promising attacking plays.

Adjust them down by 20% and they are still good. Small sample obviously, which you can adjust for again, but they would still be really good.   

That's good to know. I really rate Hurst; he has bags of potential and I was a bit concerned when rumour had it that McCann wasn't a fan of his earlier in the season.


These positive attacking outputs don’t take into account his off the ball stuff do they. Thats what he needs to work on.

Not impossible he could play the Haks, void of any real defensive responsibility role, if we get a good grafting winger on the other side.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: IDM on May 15, 2024, 04:13:01 pm
Expected goals and expected assists.

Calculated how.??
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: KingKendrick on May 15, 2024, 04:19:13 pm
xG and xA output from our wide men per 90min…

Molyneux 4038 minutes-

xG- 0.15
xA- 0.18

Total- 0.33

Adelakun 1829 minutes-

xG- 0.18
xA- 0.13

Total- 0.31

Hurst 707 minutes-

xG- 0.25
xA- 0.23

Total- 0.48


Interesting.

Depends on the source I guess. Below shows Haks XG at 0.45 and his Actual goals at 0.48 per 90 putting him the 96th percentile in the division this season. Quite a contrast to those you’ve posted?

https://footystats.org/players/england/hakeem-adelakun
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: ncRover on May 15, 2024, 04:54:44 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.

He does need to be good to get those numbers but they'd be even better if they achieved over a bigger sample time, the majority of which was against players with fresh legs. When a full-back has been run ragged for 70 mins by Moly and/or Haks it'll be easier for Hurst to deliver promising attacking plays.

Adjust them down by 20% and they are still good. Small sample obviously, which you can adjust for again, but they would still be really good.   

That's good to know. I really rate Hurst; he has bags of potential and I was a bit concerned when rumour had it that McCann wasn't a fan of his earlier in the season.


These positive attacking outputs don’t take into account his off the ball stuff do they. Thats what he needs to work on.

Not impossible he could play the Haks, void of any real defensive responsibility role, if we get a good grafting winger on the other side.

Hard to find someone of Moly’s profile. Which is why I think it’s likely he doesn’t stay.

Jack Nolan left footed and plays on the right for Accrington but not a grafter going by his stats.

Mahoney currently on loan at Gillingham expiring at Huddersfield had a good season but might be L1 standard.

Humphrys as mentioned above also looks L1 standard.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on May 15, 2024, 05:05:09 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.

He does need to be good to get those numbers but they'd be even better if they achieved over a bigger sample time, the majority of which was against players with fresh legs. When a full-back has been run ragged for 70 mins by Moly and/or Haks it'll be easier for Hurst to deliver promising attacking plays.

Adjust them down by 20% and they are still good. Small sample obviously, which you can adjust for again, but they would still be really good.   

That's good to know. I really rate Hurst; he has bags of potential and I was a bit concerned when rumour had it that McCann wasn't a fan of his earlier in the season.


These positive attacking outputs don’t take into account his off the ball stuff do they. Thats what he needs to work on.

Not impossible he could play the Haks, void of any real defensive responsibility role, if we get a good grafting winger on the other side.

His weakness though there for me is his physical prescence a bit, he's a little too lightweight still for me and that's his weakness vs Hakeeb.

I do think being an impact sub helps these stats but there remains no doubt Hurst can be an outstanding player if he can get a run of games and a bit stronger.  Fans love to watch him.

I think finding a winger who works at Molyneux's level is very tough.  Molyneux can be questionable in terms of product at times but his workrate is excellent.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: DonnyOsmond on May 15, 2024, 05:12:52 pm
Hurst has barely started and only comes on when the game is opening up.

This cant be that surprising is it?

It is surprising. He’s got to be good to get to anything like those numbers.

Football is played on grass but everything that happens on that pitch can be quantified.

He does need to be good to get those numbers but they'd be even better if they achieved over a bigger sample time, the majority of which was against players with fresh legs. When a full-back has been run ragged for 70 mins by Moly and/or Haks it'll be easier for Hurst to deliver promising attacking plays.

Adjust them down by 20% and they are still good. Small sample obviously, which you can adjust for again, but they would still be really good.   

That's good to know. I really rate Hurst; he has bags of potential and I was a bit concerned when rumour had it that McCann wasn't a fan of his earlier in the season.


These positive attacking outputs don’t take into account his off the ball stuff do they. Thats what he needs to work on.

Not impossible he could play the Haks, void of any real defensive responsibility role, if we get a good grafting winger on the other side.

Hard to find someone of Moly’s profile. Which is why I think it’s likely he doesn’t stay.

Jack Nolan left footed and plays on the right for Accrington but not a grafter going by his stats.

Mahoney currently on loan at Gillingham expiring at Huddersfield had a good season but might be L1 standard.

Humphrys as mentioned above also looks L1 standard.

Kyle McAllister.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: steve@dcfd on May 15, 2024, 05:24:01 pm
Did it show our expected run over 19 games or Crawley hammering MKdons over two legs.  Good but does not show every thing about a player.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: DRFCSouth on May 15, 2024, 07:14:22 pm
Hurst could be a great asset. His ability to turn his marker, and get a yard to get a cross in is priceless. If he could add a bit of physicality, he could be a real force.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: DonnyBazR0ver on May 15, 2024, 07:16:49 pm
As I see it, Hurst was more often than not, sent on to have an impact in the latter stages of games. Doing that over 90 mins is a different challenge so, the XG doesn't reflect like for like figures.

Definitely want to see Hurst progress as he does have talent.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Canadian Rover on May 15, 2024, 07:30:32 pm
xG and xA output from our wide men per 90min…

Molyneux 4038 minutes-

xG- 0.15
xA- 0.18

Total- 0.33

Adelakun 1829 minutes-

xG- 0.18
xA- 0.13

Total- 0.31

Hurst 707 minutes-

xG- 0.25
xA- 0.23

Total- 0.48


Interesting.

I wonder what these stats would be from January onwards.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on May 15, 2024, 07:47:31 pm
So Adelakun has completely outperformed then. Based on XG v actual goals.

Point is, he won't score at that rate again. He had an exceptional spell where everything he tried came off. Usually it won't work like that.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: sedwardsdrfc on May 15, 2024, 08:15:11 pm
Even if we sign Haks and Moly stays we need to get Hurst init the team with them. An unlikely problem up he needs to be starting regularly now.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: GazLaz on May 15, 2024, 10:49:07 pm
So Adelakun has completely outperformed then. Based on XG v actual goals.

Point is, he won't score at that rate again. He had an exceptional spell where everything he tried came off. Usually it won't work like that.


That’s why I wouldn’t be in tears if he doesn’t sign. There has to be plenty of bad to even out the phenomenal that we have seen. There is a possibility the last 5 years have been the down and we will be a few years of the upside but that’s unlikely.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: dickos1 on May 15, 2024, 10:59:22 pm
It can’t just be as simple as that,
As a player you have managers you like playing for who can get the best out of you and you have managers who struggle to get the best out of you. McCann can obviously get the best out of these types of players, Wilks, molyneux, haks, Kane, all played their best football under McCann.
No reason hams won’t continue to thrive under him
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: drfcsteve on May 16, 2024, 08:11:21 am
I’d argue that we’ve seen both sides of Haks even in his short spell with us. Loads of phenomenal performances, but fairly anonymous last couple of games. If he does sign we can’t expect him to be outstanding for a full season.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Reg of the Rovers on May 16, 2024, 08:59:53 am
I’d argue that we’ve seen both sides of Haks even in his short spell with us. Loads of phenomenal performances, but fairly anonymous last couple of games. If he does sign we can’t expect him to be outstanding for a full season.
Absolutely agree. In moments he is unplayable, and has won us games - the goal v Crawley away possibly the best example, and he will track back and follow runners. But he can go missing, and when we needed him most - the two games v Crewe, he was wholly underwhelming. He's likely to get frustrating to watch if he is managing occasional bursts of brilliance while otherwise being anonymous.

Kyle Hurst should kick on again next season if he stays injury free. As others have said, his weakness is literally his weakness, but as he matures and keeps working on his strength he'll keep improving.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: GazLaz on May 16, 2024, 09:06:30 am
I’d argue that we’ve seen both sides of Haks even in his short spell with us. Loads of phenomenal performances, but fairly anonymous last couple of games. If he does sign we can’t expect him to be outstanding for a full season.


That’s true. He was given the remit of winning matches for us and he did that. He was excused what went in between. In the same way Wilks was under Grant previously.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 16, 2024, 10:05:24 am
Expected goals and expected assists.

Calculated how.??

It'll all be down to that Artificial Intelligence IDM.

Personally I prefer Real Intelligence but that's just me.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: ravenrover on May 16, 2024, 10:23:59 am
Are they in La Liga?
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: jm291 on May 16, 2024, 10:40:38 am
If Haks doesn't sign then Ronan Curtis is one I would maybe look at. Had a good run at Wimbledon and pretty prolific before at Portsmouth.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: GazLaz on May 16, 2024, 10:44:27 am
Are they in La Liga?

That’s superb.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Padge_DRFC on May 16, 2024, 06:49:27 pm
Problem with Hurst, I've never seen a player so evidently scared of the potential to get hurt.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: ChrisBx on May 16, 2024, 08:13:47 pm
Expected goals and expected assists.

Calculated how.??

It'll all be down to that Artificial Intelligence IDM.

Personally I prefer Real Intelligence but that's just me.

It's nothing to do with AI.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: KingKendrick on May 16, 2024, 09:01:50 pm
Expected goals and expected assists.

Calculated how.??

It'll all be down to that Artificial Intelligence IDM.

Personally I prefer Real Intelligence but that's just me.

Calculated by the chance of a shot going in from where the shot was taken. For example a shot taken from the middle of the goal 10 yards out may have an xg of 0.3 (3 in 10 attempts this goes in). There will be AI used to process this data due to the volume of data gathered, but AI is a very vague term that covers a plethora of things.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Colin C No.3 on May 16, 2024, 09:41:04 pm
It can’t just be as simple as that,
As a player you have managers you like playing for who can get the best out of you and you have managers who struggle to get the best out of you. McCann can obviously get the best out of these types of players, Wilks, molyneux, haks, Kane, all played their best football under McCann.
No reason hams won’t continue to thrive under him

Absolutely.

That’s one of the many reasons why everything that happens on a football pitch can’t be quantified.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: DonnyOsmond on May 16, 2024, 10:33:38 pm
It can’t just be as simple as that,
As a player you have managers you like playing for who can get the best out of you and you have managers who struggle to get the best out of you. McCann can obviously get the best out of these types of players, Wilks, molyneux, haks, Kane, all played their best football under McCann.
No reason hams won’t continue to thrive under him

Absolutely.

That’s one of the many reasons why everything that happens on a football pitch can’t be quantified.

That's why the better clubs who deal with data model the data to determine whether players fit their style.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Donnywolf on May 17, 2024, 07:52:25 am
Expected goals and expected assists.

Cheers. They are lagging way behind my expectations as I always want an assist or Goal from Haks , Molly and Hursty EVERY attack

Suspect only one of them will have that opportunity next Season (for DRFC)
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 17, 2024, 08:11:01 am
Expected goals and expected assists.

Calculated how.??

It'll all be down to that Artificial Intelligence IDM.

Personally I prefer Real Intelligence but that's just me.

It's nothing to do with AI.

It was a joke
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: DonnyOsmond on May 17, 2024, 01:05:23 pm
Dan Kemp's just become available. More a #10 like.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: ncRover on May 17, 2024, 01:50:24 pm
Dan Kemp's just become available. More a #10 like.

He’s from London. He’ll have loads of clubs lined up and will just pick one down south you’d have thought. Might even get a L1 move.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: ncRover on May 22, 2024, 09:15:39 pm
If Haks doesn't sign then Ronan Curtis is one I would maybe look at. Had a good run at Wimbledon and pretty prolific before at Portsmouth.

Darren Moore’s first summer signing for Port Vale. Not bad.
Title: Re: Wing Kings
Post by: The Beast on May 22, 2024, 11:04:12 pm
 
If Haks doesn't sign then Ronan Curtis is one I would maybe look at. Had a good run at Wimbledon and pretty prolific before at Portsmouth.

Darren Moore’s first summer signing for Port Vale. Not bad.
That’s a right signing, unfortunately.