Elections

[drfchound]

Wilts there's the DUP but otherwise I take your point.

2 of the last 4 GE's have resulted in hung parliaments and given current polling combined with Tory gerrymandering a 3rd in 5 is not out of the question.

After what Johnson has done to them over the NI Protocol! There is more chance of him forming an alliance with Sinn Fein and they dont take their seats.

A lot can change in two years - but as things stand now I would say Labour forming a coalition with at least one pro-rejoin EU party is the most likely outcome.

Would people who voted for Brexit vote for Labour if they knew that wilts.
What do you reckon.
It potentially rules out half of the country voting for them.

Not really. There are very few seats where the Lib Dems fight Labour - so a Lib Dem resurgence will take seats off the Tories. The best chance of Labour not having to form a coalition is for Labour to win an outright majority - which as you say looks very unlikley at this moment.

So all those people not wanting a Labour majority - be very careful what you wish for.

I agree with you about the Lib Dems not fighting Labour in a lot of areas but my earlier question was more along the lines of would Brexiteers vote for Labour if they thought Starmer would be in favour of rejoining the EU.

I am afraid you will need to ask those Brexiteers who vote Labour that question hound. I thought the vast majority of Brexiteers voted Tory anyway - and you can see from Thursdays results how well they are doing. And Starmer has always said he is not in favour of rejoining the EU.

If the Tories loose 40 seats they loose their majority. They will easily do that in the metropolitan areas, south/south west, Cumbria, Wales and Scotland based on those results. Can they take more seats away from Labour in Brexit areas to make up for that? Again, not on those results.

Unless Labour win an outright majority they will be in coalition with a pro-rejoin EU party. The more seats they need to make up that coalition the more pro-EU parties will be involved.

The best way for Brexiteer Labour voters to stop this is for them to vote Labour into power and not need a coalition - thats just counting.

If people decide they want to vote against Labour to stop them rejoining the EU - the more likely they are to cause that. That's how I see the numbers.

I didn’t know that the majority of Brexit voters were Tory voters wilts.
Are there any stats to back that up?

[wilts rover]

Yes hound, loads on the internet, here are two sites:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/518474/eu-referendum-voting-intention-by-political-affiliation/

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-brexit/

[drfchound]

Yes hound, loads on the internet, here are two sites:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/518474/eu-referendum-voting-intention-by-political-affiliation/

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-brexit/

Cheers wilts.

[danumdon]

So according to the data from the HOC library site. BBC data was used to create a best estimate for how all the 650 constituencies would have voted, it does not make good reading for a prospective Labour party hoping to become the next government.

If the Labour leadership (who no doubt will have the analysed the same data) don't take this into account at the next General election what do they think will be the outcome?

Who did they say had passed on this new "info" to the police to investigate Starmer?

I'm sensing Labour would not be too displeased to be able to quietly "push aside" the current leader, the trouble for them will then be, Who do they finally get to lead them into oblivion?

Not a leader in sight.

[River Don]

If Starmer was to depart, I don't think it would be a disaster if...

Lisa Nandy took over.

I think she is a much better communicator and I think she has the common touch.

[albie]

DD,

"Not a leader in sight".....true, because the shadow cabinet is full of people chosen because they back Keith, not because they are the best people for the job.

It really depends upon what you think a leader should do.
If you have a strong policy offer, then promoting that alternative position is the main focus.
Once the policies are agreed, use the best comms to develop public understanding of those policies.

Starmer has neither a strong policy position, nor any clear personality as a politician.
His whole approach is to shelter as a "Not Boris" candidate, hoping to return to the neo liberal past.

It is clear that his New Labour tribute band is failing to connect with those in the red wall who abandoned Labour because of the failure of neo liberal politics to deliver a better quality of life.

You can see it in the stance taken towards public ownership, which is very popular for core utilities.
With the cost of living crisis, anyone taking energy back in house would gain votes in numbers.
Anyone with two brain cells to rub together can see that fuel poverty is going to be the driver of political discussion going towards the next GE.

Keith thinks a one off windfall tax will suffice, leaving the failing industry unchanged.
Presumably to be followed by another windfall tax in October, then another after that!

Always leaning towards treating symptoms, never resolving the cause...that is Keith!
Meanwhile the disconnect with voters gets wider every election.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Err. This is only Starmer's second election as leader. Labour performed significantly better than in the last four nationwide polls under Corbyn. How far must HE have been disconnected from the Electorate?

[albie]

Apples and Oranges, BST.

Corbyn was under intense media attack for the pre election period from the Tory supporting press.
Public perception is distorted by this coverage, to the detriment of the policy consideration.

You know this very well, so please do not try to divert from the point.
Starmer has had by-elections to demonstrate his standing against the worst government in recent history, without making any significant impact.

Even the extreme centre must be concerned over the lack of traction Labour has with voters in the Red Wall. A strategy of relying upon further mis-steps by Bozo, and some buyers regret, is just not going to cut it.

Admit it Lad, then face the problem squarely!

[Branton Red]

Given the general public anger around Johnson's lockdown behaviour re 'partygate' this election was an open goal for Labour.

In England (except London) this open goal was missed.

Starmer and Labour are not making enough ground in non-metropolitan England to win the next GE (when either the Tories will have a new leader or some of the anger at Johnson will have abated) outright.

Quite simply they've lost the trust of Brexit-supporting/sympathetic traditional Labour voters such as myself.

[River Don]

You do realise all that really matters for a political leader today is how do they come across in the media.

Starmer is nowhere near good enough.

Unless they can charm the public on Good morning Britain or BBC Breakfast, you can forget it.

That's what matters most.

That's the lesson of Blair, that's the lesson of Johnson. In a way it's also the lesson of Trump, while he isn't charming he has charisma.

[danumdon]

Given the general public anger around Johnson's lockdown behaviour re 'partygate' this election was an open goal for Labour.

In England (except London) this open goal was missed.

Starmer and Labour are not making enough ground in non-metropolitan England to win the next GE (when either the Tories will have a new leader or some of the anger at Johnson will have abated) outright.

Quite simply they've lost the trust of Brexit-supporting/sympathetic traditional Labour voters such as myself.

The last paragraph sum's it up precisely, Labour are saddled with a leader that all former Labour "red wall voters" remember tried single-handedly to row back on the Brexit referendum vote in a manner that most found totally undemocratic, i would imagine they will not forget this come the next general election.

The guy really is a dead man walking. The government will only push the matter until its overtaken in the MSM by some other cock and bull story, while ever he's in charge they know that a good portion of the Labour red wall voters cannot vote for him or his policies.

[Branton Red]

Given the general public anger around Johnson's lockdown behaviour re 'partygate' this election was an open goal for Labour.

In England (except London) this open goal was missed.

Starmer and Labour are not making enough ground in non-metropolitan England to win the next GE (when either the Tories will have a new leader or some of the anger at Johnson will have abated) outright.

Quite simply they've lost the trust of Brexit-supporting/sympathetic traditional Labour voters such as myself.

The last paragraph sum's it up precisely, Labour are saddled with a leader that all former Labour "red wall voters" remember tried single-handedly to row back on the Brexit referendum vote in a manner that most found totally undemocratic, i would imagine they will not forget this come the next general election.

The guy really is a dead man walking. The government will only push the matter until its overtaken in the MSM by some other cock and bull story, while ever he's in charge they know that a good portion of the Labour red wall voters cannot vote for him or his policies.

Danumdon your first paragraph sums where I and most of my family plus many work colleagues are precisely. (The majority of whom live in the Don Valley seat that switched red to blue for the first time in a Century - typical 'Red Wall').

I don't trust Starmer and I'm struggling to trust Labour again - the election of him as leader, after his behaviour in the 17-19 parliament and the 2nd referendum policy he was a key instigator of, simply sickened me. It showed up what Labour thought of me, my opinions, the electorate as a whole and our democracy.

[selby]

During the lock down there were numerous reports in the media about mass gatherings at Raves in parks and warehouses etc.
  Where was the media and mass disgust at the flaunting of the law being broken then?
   

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

Oh no! I'd forgotten that Corbyn was under pressure from the Press. Who'd have thought that would ever happen to a Labour leader.

I bet Starmer's chuffed that he hasn't had to deal with a hostile press chucking shit at him in an election campaign, eh?

[drfchound]

If Starmer does hang on to the LP leadership for the next GE it will be interesting to see whether albie or bst are right in their assessment of his abilities.
I remember bst saying that Corbyn would lead Labour to a win but since then, and very recently, has denounced him as incompetent.

[wilts rover]

Starmer certainly needs to get a lot better at dealing with a hostile press/media chucking difficult questions at him - because he will get a lot more + they will be a lot more difficult the closer to a GE we are, especially if Labour look like winning it.

Labour are ahead in the polls.

The parties that had the most gains in Thursday's elections were all pro-rejoin EU.

The Tories are behind on polling in every competence area - and we have just hit a cost of living crises that looks like leading to a recession they have no idea how to deal with.

Yet people think Labour should change their policies to attract Brexiteer voters who are never going to vote for them - good look on that one.

If Starmer resigns (and I think he will if he is fined) the contest for next leader will be between Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy, both very strong communicators and very strong on community development - which is where I think Labour need to lead on.

[selby]

  By the next election the boundaries commission will have changed a number of constituencies in favour of the Tory Party especially in the South East.

[albie]

Albie.

Oh no! I'd forgotten that Corbyn was under pressure from the Press. Who'd have thought that would ever happen to a Labour leader.

I bet Starmer's chuffed that he hasn't had to deal with a hostile press chucking shit at him in an election campaign, eh?

BST,

Starmer has not had any significant pressure from the press until the last week, and that is only mainly a distraction tactic to protect Johnson.

There is absolutely no comparison to the treatment Corbyn received, both from the press and the extreme centre of the Labour Party. We know that many in the Labour establishment sought to undermine Corbyn on a daily basis.

The point is that Labour have not made progress under Starmer to make a GE campaign likely to deliver a majority. Tories can of course continue to lose voters by sticking with Johnson, but that is not translating into Tory voters choosing Labour instead.

Given that the pitch is to Tory prejudices, as a strategy it is clearly not working.
So what next?

[River Don]

Albie

If Starmer goes who would you want to replace him?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

Oh no! I'd forgotten that Corbyn was under pressure from the Press. Who'd have thought that would ever happen to a Labour leader.

I bet Starmer's chuffed that he hasn't had to deal with a hostile press chucking shit at him in an election campaign, eh?

BST,

Starmer has not had any significant pressure from the press until the last week, and that is only mainly a distraction tactic to protect Johnson.

There is absolutely no comparison to the treatment Corbyn received, both from the press and the extreme centre of the Labour Party. We know that many in the Labour establishment sought to undermine Corbyn on a daily basis.

The point is that Labour have not made progress under Starmer to make a GE campaign likely to deliver a majority. Tories can of course continue to lose voters by sticking with Johnson, but that is not translating into Tory voters choosing Labour instead.

Given that the pitch is to Tory prejudices, as a strategy it is clearly not working.
So what next?

Albie.
I take it the Left of the Labour party has been all shoulders to the wheel of the Starmer bus then? No dissenting voices at all?

[SydneyRover]

the ''extreme centre'' that's a new one!

[albie]

Albie

If Starmer goes who would you want to replace him?

I am a Democratic Socialist, so I would prefer a Socialist standing on a program of fundamental reform.
None of the Shadow Cabinet are Socialists, IMHO....they have been selected for that very reason.

The extreme centre is a well known concept on the left in politics, Syd.
It has been around as a description for some time, but was boosted by the book of the same name.
Here is an explanation:
https://www.counterfire.org/articles/book-reviews/17775-the-extreme-centre-a-warning

BST,

The left would hardly put shoulders to the wheel for a leader who has expelled members for flimsy excuses, and made association with certain groups a retrospective offence.

This is one reason why he is being taken to court.
Another is the data breach in which members details were "lost" to a hack attack. This includes the details of former members which was unlawfully retained by Labour.

Expect heavy fines for breach of GDPR regulations.

[River Don]

I see Albie,

In my lifetime the British public have never voted for a government more left wing than Tony Blairs. I really can't see them embracing anything as leftwing as you would like.

In fact these days I have grave doubts they will ever vote for anything left wing again.