Irish bailout

[Filo]

Well, well, well, the economic model that our Tory chancellor wanted to follow, he said it was a great example to all other nations, has had to go cap in hand to the EU and IMF. As the words in the football chant go George, \" Ya don`t know what ya doing!\"

[The Red Baron]

I think you'll find the problems in Ireland are more to do with being in the euro- something which, thankfully, we avoided.

And if you think the cuts being planned here are savage, wait till you see what cuts the Irish have to make as part of the bailout conditions.

[Dagenham Rover]

Filo wrote:

Well, well, well, the economic model that our Tory chancellor wanted to follow, he said it was a great example to all other nations, has had to go cap in hand to the EU and IMF. As the words in the football chant go George, \" Ya don`t know what ya doing!\"

Mr Chancellor doesn't seem to be mentioning that now does he.

and another 7 billion down the swanny in these hard but fair times......what a load of b*llocks

[Filo]

Dagenham.Rover wrote:

Filo wrote:

Well, well, well, the economic model that our Tory chancellor wanted to follow, he said it was a great example to all other nations, has had to go cap in hand to the EU and IMF. As the words in the football chant go George, \" Ya don`t know what ya doing!\"

Mr Chancellor doesn't seem to be mentioning that now does he.

and another 7 billion down the swanny in these hard but fair times......what a load of b*llocks

Aye, the disabled, pensioners and unemployed are having to pay for it, but like the rich folk say, we`re all in it together eh?

[irishcontingent]

1976 UK needed a \"Bail-out\", tell me Filo who was in power then, and was there not a lib - lab pact around that time. 4 years later the UK economy was bouyant, can that not happen here ?. Its a loan from UK to one of their nearest trading partners, loans have to be repaid.

[Filo]

irishcontingent wrote:

1976 UK needed a \"Bail-out\", tell me Filo who was in power then, and was there not a lib - lab pact around that time. 4 years later the UK economy was bouyant, can that not happen here ?. Its a loan from UK to one of their nearest trading partners, loans have to be repaid.

We`re making a loan that we can`t afford according to the Tories, that was the reason the Forgemasters loan was pulled, they told us we simply had n`t got the money, £85M, thats all it was, but suddenly we`ve found £7b to solve a problem thats not ours

[BillyStubbsTears]

The UK economy was buoyant in 1980?

I must have missed that one. I don't recall Donny being buoyant. I do remember 29% unemployment in Mexborough in the early 80s and utter economic devastation in South Yorkshire for 2 decades.

The Irish have colossal problems to overcome. Far, far bigger than the UK had in 1976. For the next century, this will be used in University economics courses as a prime example of how to fcuk up a country through hubris, deregulation and a manic belief in the the power of the Market. To the point that you end up with the entire economy dependent on 3 banks that are each bigger by far than the entire national economy. You end up with an entire country deluding itself that they have built some sort of economic miracle, when the reality was that Ithaca based in piss and froth, and levels if debt that made us Brits look like Scrooges. And the property bubble to end all property bubbles.

A few years ago, a mate of mine, a top engineering academic who is a recognised world-class researcher and who has developed cutting edge engineering software used by consultancies all over the world, was offered a senior lectureship at Trinity College Dublin. When he went to look at houses before accepting the job, he found that, on a senior academic's salary, he would not be able to afford a house within 75 miles of Dublin! Madness!

The Irish convinced themselves that they were richer and more economically dynamic than Germany. Just like with Iceland, it was the Emperor's New Clothes. An entire nation was fcuked up by a classic combination of greed, financial mumbo jumbo  and a right wing political establishment that both preached the sanctity of letting the banks get on with it and then letting the Market sort it out when it went tits up.

We have got huge problems in the UK, but they are a pin prick compared to Ireland's, not least because when the crisis struck, we focussed on underpinning the economy first to ensure recovery rather than cutting for fiscal orthodoxy. Ireland is in the nightmare scenario of both having an out if control deficit AND still being in recession after 2 years. I cannot see how they get out of that without colossal reductions in living standards. One economist last week suggested that the effect of the cuts over the next 2 years will be a 40% cut in effective wages.

[CusworthRovers]

Filo wrote:

irishcontingent wrote:

1976 UK needed a \"Bail-out\", tell me Filo who was in power then, and was there not a lib - lab pact around that time. 4 years later the UK economy was bouyant, can that not happen here ?. Its a loan from UK to one of their nearest trading partners, loans have to be repaid.

We`re making a loan that we can`t afford according to the Tories, that was the reason the Forgemasters loan was pulled, they told us we simply had n`t got the money, £85M, thats all it was, but suddenly we`ve found £7b to solve a problem thats not ours

I would bet my last pound, that all we are thinking about is making money out of the Irish (or should I say the banks and the wealthy few are going to make from this offer). All this so called helping out our neighbours and trade partners, and whilst we are in the middle of a so called massive recession and crippling debt,..........yeah right Gideon and Cammo, you two make sure your buddies keep making more money, wouldn't want them to threaten to leave the country now, would we.

[Wokingviking]

Well said BST.  And it will get worse for Ireland as all the American tech co's bugger off when the corporation tax rate goes up - which the rest of Europe will insist on as part of the aid deal.

The idea of a single unified currency, whilst originally seemingly positive, is now a problem.  It limits what any country can do to re-balance its economy and you end up with structural divides, just like north vs south within individual countries such as the UK and Italy (albeit the other way round there)... only now you end up with entire countries being impoverished over the long-term rather than just regions.

Heh, what about Donny with its own currency?

[irishcontingent]

Filo wrote:

irishcontingent wrote:

1976 UK needed a \"Bail-out\", tell me Filo who was in power then, and was there not a lib - lab pact around that time. 4 years later the UK economy was bouyant, can that not happen here ?. Its a loan from UK to one of their nearest trading partners, loans have to be repaid.

We`re making a loan that we can`t afford according to the Tories, that was the reason the Forgemasters loan was pulled, they told us we simply had n`t got the money, £85M, thats all it was, but suddenly we`ve found £7b to solve a problem thats not ours

The problem is not the UK's i grant you, but Ireland is so in debt to UK banks it quickly would become UK problem were it not for these \"Loans\".

[The Red Baron]

irishcontingent wrote:

Filo wrote:

irishcontingent wrote:

1976 UK needed a \"Bail-out\", tell me Filo who was in power then, and was there not a lib - lab pact around that time. 4 years later the UK economy was bouyant, can that not happen here ?. Its a loan from UK to one of their nearest trading partners, loans have to be repaid.

We`re making a loan that we can`t afford according to the Tories, that was the reason the Forgemasters loan was pulled, they told us we simply had n`t got the money, £85M, thats all it was, but suddenly we`ve found £7b to solve a problem thats not ours

The problem is not the UK's i grant you, but Ireland is so in debt to UK banks it quickly would become UK problem were it not for these \"Loans\".

You are completely right about the UK's problem. RBS is owed over £12 billion by the Irish banks. Other UK banks have high exposures.

Those people who think that the £7 billion loan is unjustified are only being consistent if they also argued that Brown and Darling should have allowed the UK banks to fail.

I don't often give Mr Brown credit on here, but he made his best ever decison when he decided that the Treasury would state that the economic conditions were not right for Britan to enter EMU (i.e join the euro.) Pity no-one in Dublin had similar foresight.

[The Red Baron]

Wokingviking wrote:

The idea of a single unified currency, whilst originally seemingly positive, is now a problem.  It limits what any country can do to re-balance its economy and you end up with structural divides, just like north vs south within individual countries such as the UK and Italy (albeit the other way round there)... only now you end up with entire countries being impoverished over the long-term rather than just regions.

Actually quite a lot of people thought the idea of a single european currency was b*llocks. Perhaps the only major issue on which Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown agreed.

[Filo]

The way I see it here is that David Cameron is doing more or less the same as Gordon Brown did, the only difference is that Brown bailed out British banks while Cameron is bailing out Irish banks!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Filo wrote:

The way I see it here is that David Cameron is doing more or less the same as Gordon Brown did, the only difference is that Brown bailed out British banks while Cameron is bailing out Irish banks!

Gordon Brown often bailed out other countries when needed didn't he?

[Filo]

big fat yorkshire pudding wrote:

Filo wrote:

The way I see it here is that David Cameron is doing more or less the same as Gordon Brown did, the only difference is that Brown bailed out British banks while Cameron is bailing out Irish banks!

Gordon Brown often bailed out other countries when needed didn't he?

You`re missing the point, the Tories whole election campaign was centred around them saying that Brown was irresponsible by pumping money into the banks, money they say we never had, money they keep telling us we still haven`t got, yet they can find £7 billion to give to the Irish. Well if Brown was irresponsible, at least he was helping the British in doing so, not some other country locked into another currency. And why are n`t the Tories going with their principles and letting the markets dictate?

[BillyStubbsTears]

big fat yorkshire pudding wrote:

Filo wrote:

The way I see it here is that David Cameron is doing more or less the same as Gordon Brown did, the only difference is that Brown bailed out British banks while Cameron is bailing out Irish banks!

Gordon Brown often bailed out other countries when needed didn't he?

Please elucidate

[Wild Rover]

The be all and end all of this is Cameron is actually being quite cute. Ireland cannot borrow money on International markets at anything less than 9% interest, UK can borrow at 3%, so uk borrow it, then loan to Ireland at 6%. Ireland happy, UK happy, and its not cost UK a thing.

Oh and off the top of my head RB Ireland is in Hoc to UK banks to yune of 50 Billion.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wild Rover wrote:

The be all and end all of this is Cameron is actually being quite cute. Ireland cannot borrow money on International markets at anything less than 9% interest, UK can borrow at 3%, so uk borrow it, then loan to Ireland at 6%. Ireland happy, UK happy, and its not cost UK a thing.

Ah. Yeah. But.

That only works if we actually get our money back.

I'm not aware of any country in history digging themselves out of a hole like Ireland's without taking the other option - defaulting on their loans and effectively decalring themselves bankrupt. Then creditors get whatever is in the kitty - not necessarily the whole amount that they have lent.

History, even recent history, is full of such examples - Russia and Argentina in the late 90s being just two high profile recent ones.

[NorthNorfolkRover]

It's a bit scary that all 3 parties have the same solution to this given a second wave of bail outs has already failed in America. What's the point of a democracy when everyone agrees on a solution whether it's proven to work or not ?

[Wokingviking]

BillyStubbsTears wrote:

Wild Rover wrote:

The be all and end all of this is Cameron is actually being quite cute. Ireland cannot borrow money on International markets at anything less than 9% interest, UK can borrow at 3%, so uk borrow it, then loan to Ireland at 6%. Ireland happy, UK happy, and its not cost UK a thing.

Ah. Yeah. But.

That only works if we actually get our money back.

I'm not aware of any country in history digging themselves out of a hole like Ireland's without taking the other option - defaulting on their loans and effectively decalring themselves bankrupt. Then creditors get whatever is in the kitty - not necessarily the whole amount that they have lent.

History, even recent history, is full of such examples - Russia and Argentina in the late 90s being just two high profile recent ones.

Mexico un all. Mind you they got a couple of World Cup Finals and Olympics chucked in which ain't bad.

[Glyn_Wigley]

NorthNorfolkRover wrote:

It's a bit scary that all 3 parties have the same solution to this given a second wave of bail outs has already failed in America. What's the point of a democracy when everyone agrees on a solution whether it's proven to work or not ?

I bet UKIP has a different policy. Vote for them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

NorthNorfolkRover wrote:

It's a bit scary that all 3 parties have the same solution to this given a second wave of bail outs has already failed in America. What's the point of a democracy when everyone agrees on a solution whether it's proven to work or not ?

By what criteria do you decide that the bail outs in America have \"failed\"?

Conversely, we know damn well what happens if Govts DON'T intervene in this sort of situation, as the Tea Party would have us do. Go have a look at history from 1929-1939 for the answer.

[Filo]

Actually it`s pretty ironic that the country that voted no to the EU and then told to vote again to get it right, could be the country that sets the ball rolling towards the collapse of the Eurozone. Germany`s dream of ruling Europe destroyed again!

[Sandy Lane]

NorthNorfolkRover wrote:

It's a bit scary that all 3 parties have the same solution to this given a second wave of bail outs has already failed in America. What's the point of a democracy when everyone agrees on a solution whether it's proven to work or not ?

It depends who you talk to.  The Republicans say the Recovery Act was a failure because unemployment wasn't held below 8% as Obama promised, but he held unemployment at 9.6% which has been estimated to have been at 16.5% without it.  The economy is now growing at a 2% clip, and we've had 9 mos. straight of private sector job growth, so it did what it was supposed to do -- prevent a great recession and jump started the economy.  I think it did take longer than expected and the second round of programs -- $50 billion in infrastructure spending and $200 billion in tax breaks for investments in new equipment -- was to accelerate progress.

P.S.  I did my homework.  :-)

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