Deflation on it's way in Eurozone

[Iberian Red]

No one knows him?
 

[Filo]

The inflation figures are out, why haven't we had an update?

[jonnydog]

Why filo? Why?

[Filo]

Why filo? Why?

I'd prefer our economics expert to comment on the latest figures

[IC1967]

Why filo? Why?

I'd prefer our economics expert to comment on the latest figures

Your wish is my command. Now down to 1%. Deflation here we come.

Here's the last sentence from the link below:

'Falling inflation could also be of concern to investors, as the UK moves closer to the Eurozone's situation of battling to avoid deflation'.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30493967

[Filo]

What happened to last months sermon?

[IC1967]

What happened to last months sermon?

Last month was an aberration which is why it was ignored.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And this month is nothing to do with the (global) collapse in oil prices?

[Glyn_Wigley]

And this month is nothing to do with the (global) collapse in oil prices?

I've told him before, inflation is the rate at which a currency loses its value - across the board. Individual commodity fluctuations are not an indicator of an inflation rate.

[IC1967]

And this month is nothing to do with the (global) collapse in oil prices?

Of course it is. Any fool could have predicted the fall in the oil price. I always factored this into my prediction. I predict it will fall further.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

Agreed.

If anything, the huge drop in oil prices will lead (in the medium term) to an increase in headline inflation because it is effectively a stimulus to growth.

Course, this'll all be academic if the Russian economy continues to go down the plug and they respond in an aggressive way...

Krugman has coined a terrifying term for the current state of Russia, as a petro-economy with massive structural problems. "Venezuela with Nukes."

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes Mick.

You being such a prize fool, I'm surprised you didn't predict it then.

How's the gold price doing by the way?

[River Don]

And this month is nothing to do with the (global) collapse in oil prices?

Which might be to do with the Americans ending QE, the dollar consequently strengthening and possibly co-ordinating this with the Saudis who have decided against cutting oil production during a small glut. A symptom of a slow down in China, Europe and Japan reducing demand for energy.

Which all puts the Russian economy into crisis. Whether or not it's all a coincidence, I'm not sure.

[IC1967]

Yes Mick.

You being such a prize fool, I'm surprised you didn't predict it then.

How's the gold price doing by the way?

You'll be pleased to know that it is still quite low. Those of you that took my excellent advice will be buying at the bottom of the market. Don't be like Billy and buy at the top.

My great skill was giving the advice just before the price collapsed. As any savvy investor knows drip feeding money into an investment is the way to go. Month by month. Sounds like Billy might have piled in with all his money straight away. Silly Billy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fair points RD.

There's a field of conspiracy theory which says that the USA conspired with the Saudis to get and keep the oil price low in the mid-80s to beankrupt the Soviet Union, bringing the Cold War to an end. Certainly the Soviets were badly hit by the collapse in oil price from 1986-90 (the price went from ~$30/barrel to ~$15/barrel almost overnight and stayed there for a long time, just as Gorbachev was trying to re-orient the Soviet economy - it's estimated that this fall cost the Soviet economy ~$20bn per year, which was big money in those days).

IF the USA is pulling these strings this time, it's a high-stakes gamble. Especially with our troops on the Soviet border in the Baltic.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Funny, that it's still low Mick. Two years after you said:

Anyway I'll still be quids in as the price of gold will rocket as the money printing continues under Obama.

QE continued for most of the 2 years after Obama's re-election. And what happened to the price of gold?

That's right. It's dropped by 25%.

[River Don]

The gamble, if it is intentional is whether or not the American economy is strong enough to resume growth, with the injection of this cheaper fuel.

There are downsides for the Americans with cheaper oil, the shale fracking industry will take a hit for one as does German industry that exports a lot into Russia.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

He bought gold as much as he put a bet on Scottish independence.

I'm short of a bob or two though so which month and year do we start to deflate?
Who's going to win the next election?

I'm looking forward to the answers Michael...

[BillyStubbsTears]

2012 Gold price to rocket. Wrong
2012. Rovers to be relegated from L1. Wrong.
2013 Deflation by July 2015. Wrong
2013 Labour to be at 26% in the polls by May 2014. Wrong.
2014. Dog Meat to win the National. Wrong.
2014. Scotland to vote yes. Wrong.
2014. Farage to stand in Donny North. Wrong.

Must be a correct prediction somewhere but I'm buggered if I can find it.

[IC1967]

2012 Gold price to rocket. Wrong
2012. Rovers to be relegated from L1. Wrong.
2013 Deflation by July 2015. Wrong
2013 Labour to be at 26% in the polls by May 2014. Wrong.
2014. Dog Meat to win the National. Wrong.
2014. Scotland to vote yes. Wrong.
2014. Farage to stand in Donny North. Wrong.

Must be a correct prediction somewhere but I'm buggered if I can find it.

The gold price will rocket. Just be grateful I gave you the advice just before the bottom of the market. Those of you that took the advice will make an absolute fortune. I reckon you will at least double your money. Now that's what I call excellent advice.

Rovers to be relegated. I got this one wrong for all the right reasons. Mr Saunders (who I'm reliably informed) took great interest in my excellent advice. He decided to change his strategy and went for more of a possession/passing game. The rest is history. He knew that I would be right about relegation if he didn't heed my advice. Fair play to him. I'm only disappointed that he didn't give me any credit for the turnaround.

Labour to be at 26%. Looks like I made a typo there and pressed the 2 instead of the 3. If it wasn't for that typing error, I'd have been right again.

Deflation by July 2015. Wrong? How do you know? I'm very confident I'll be getting that one right.

Dog Meat to win the Grand National? I don't ever remember tipping a horse with that name to win. In fact I think you've made that name up.

Scotland to vote yes. They did vote yes to stay in the union.

Farage to stand in Donny North. I'm reliably informed that this is still his intention. He isn't going to announce it until the last minute for maximum political impact.

All in all I think most people would agree, an excellent forecasting record.

[IC1967]

He bought gold as much as he put a bet on Scottish independence.

I'm short of a bob or two though so which month and year do we start to deflate?
Who's going to win the next election?

I'm looking forward to the answers Michael...

As you know, I always answer any questions thrown at me (unless they are silly). Right, deflation in 2015. I'll even give you the month - July.

The Tories are going to be the biggest party. They will form a coalition with UKIP and the EU referendum will be brought forward by 12 months. We will vote to leave.

Get your money on and you will be laughing all the way to the bank.

[Glyn_Wigley]

What happened to last months sermon?

Don't worry, he'll disappear again when petrol prices go back up.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick,

Anyone who puts money on your predictions would be going to the bank alright. The food bank.

[RobTheRover]

Mick, post us up a copy of your betslip once you've staked the Bettaware Empire funds, please.

Ta in advance.

[BillyStubbsTears]

[/quote]

Labour to be at 26%. Looks like I made a typo there and pressed the 2 instead of the 3. If it wasn't for that typing error, I'd have been right again.

[/quote]

http://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=242903.msg397551#msg397551

Like I say. You lie as easily as you breathe. Idiot.

[IC1967]

Labour to be at 26%. Looks like I made a typo there and pressed the 2 instead of the 3. If it wasn't for that typing error, I'd have been right again.

[/quote]

http://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=242903.msg397551#msg397551

Like I say. You lie as easily as you breathe. Idiot.

Thank you for that. You're right. I didn't make a typo on the 2 and the 3. Abject apologies for that. I made the typo on the date. I meant to say 2015 not 2014. I pressed the 4 instead of the 5. So my prediction still holds. You can only claim I got it wrong after the election, not before.
[/quote]

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bullshit Mick.

You lie as easily as you breathe.

Every single prediction. Wrong. Then lies afterwards.

[IC1967]

Bullshit Mick.

You lie as easily as you breathe.

Every single prediction. Wrong. Then lies afterwards.

I'm baffled. I've demonstrated that I am brilliant at predictions. Even if I accept your argument (which I don't), how can you say every prediction is wrong when some of them won't be proved right or wrong until next year? I won't call you a liar for saying every prediction is wrong but am at a loss to understand how you can make such a claim. I'd be grateful if you could clarify this matter.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick.

f**k off now, I've got work to do.

[IC1967]

Mick.

f*** off now, I've got work to do.

Look, I'd appreciate it if you could clarify your comments. I'm genuinely baffled at your 'lie' that all my predictions are wrong. You're the one that's made a song and dance about me being a liar, and then you 'lie' in the next breath. I'm sure I'm not the only one that would like you to clarify matters. Thanking you in anticipation of your cooperation.