Relegation

[RobbieDRFC]

What are people thinking is going to be the safe points target for this year? I know last year was fairly high but all other seasons have been around the mid 40's mark.

If it is a high target we will require 1.55 points per game for the remaining 20.

However if it's 45 we require 1.05 per game.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I can't see the target being as high as 50 points this year. There are seven sides whose form to date is working out at worse that you'd need to get 50 points over the season. I'd be amazed if four of them all picked up form significantly.

In fact, the bottom five clubs are all on target to get 44 points or lower. Chances are that three of those will not improve significantly (if only because they all have to play each other, and some of them must lose points against others).

I'll stick my neck out and say that 47 points will definitely be enough, with 44 points giving you a 50/50 chance this season.

The massive bonus for us is that we have had a very tough season to date. 15 of our matches have been against sides currently in the top half of the table. 7 of our remaining 10 home games are against sides in the bottom half. Get 4 wins and 2 draws from those 7 and we're within touching distance of safety. We'd probably need 8-9 points from the remaining 13 games to stay up.

[1879Rovers]

I think we need 50 points. I think Saturday showed that teams near the bottom will start picking up wins. I think Charlton will really get dragged into it and that makes the next home game with them massive. I can also see us getting something at Blackpool with Ince under massive pressure. A win and a draw from these next two games would give us a massive lift in the table. We still need to bring in a target man but defensively, the two new lads plus Husband coming back has given us a massive lift.

[dickos1]

At this point last year the bottom teams had less points than those this year.
And they all started playing like title contenders, hopefully that won't happen again, but with yesterday's results, u never know

[RobbieDRFC]

One thing which annoys/worries me is the fact every championship season mill wall and Barnsley always just do enough to get saved. Hopefully not the case this season.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Would be surprised if we didn't see a surge from the bottom clubs. Playing for their lives it's the clubs who think they're too good for relegation that will be dragged in to it. Birmingham, Bolton, Blackpool etc. I'm sure we'll love to see Eddie Howe sweat. As usual there's likely to be an almighty scramble between 6,7 or 8 teams. At least 54 points to avoid a last day nightmare.

[Dare to dream!]

I think there's always an up turn inform in the second half of the season from the relegation clubs but I can't see it being anything like last years, I think the teams are much poorer.

We've got a good set of fixtures now to get some wins so we're not worrying about getting relegated nearer the end of the season.

[hoolahoop]

Relegation ? I'm looking at who we might get in the P/Offs. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

At this point last year the bottom teams had less points than those this year.
And they all started playing like title contenders, hopefully that won't happen again, but with yesterday's results, u never know

Dickos

Incorrect I'm afraid. I can't be arsed checking the figures for this precise date last year, but the figures for the end of Dec and end of Jan are easily accessible.

At the end of Jan last year, bottom club was on target for 43 points, 3rd bottom was on target for 44 points, 5th bottom was on target for 51 points, 7th bottom on target for 54 points.

End of Dec figures were very similar.

Today, bottom is on target for 37, 3rd bottom is on target for 42, 5th bottom for 44 and 7th bottom for 50. 

The bottom clubs are doing FAR worse this year and it is almost inconceivable that 5 of the bottom 7 will top 50 points. Some might improve significantly, but I'll bet you a tenner to a penny that all of them don't.

[The Red Baron]

Would be surprised if we didn't see a surge from the bottom clubs. Playing for their lives it's the clubs who think they're too good for relegation that will be dragged in to it. Birmingham, Bolton, Blackpool etc. I'm sure we'll love to see Eddie Howe sweat. As usual there's likely to be an almighty scramble between 6,7 or 8 teams. At least 54 points to avoid a last day nightmare.

I think one or two will get sucked in. Blackpool remind me a lot of us circa 2010/11. The difference is that I think the Blackpool board will change the manager- hopefully not before next Saturday though!

[The Red Baron]

Current bottom 6:

19 Sheff Wed  25 -1 26
20 Millwall  26 -23 25
21 Charlton  25 -9 24
22 Doncaster  26 -21 24
23 Yeovil  25 -17 20
24 Barnsley  25 -19 20

After a similar number of games last season:

19 Ipswich 26 -21 30
20 Birmingham 26 -9 29
21 Peterborough 26 -12 25
22 Sheff Wed 26 -14 25
23 Bristol C 25 -12 22
24 Barnsley 26 -17 21

(Wolves were 18th on 31 points and were relegated along with Bristol City & Peterborough)

So not a lot of difference, but last season's 55 points to stay up was exceptional. I'd fancy our chances if we can get to 50 this time around.

[dickos1]

After 25 games this season the bottom 3 had/have 20, 20, 21 points respectively.

Last season after 25 games the bottom 3 had 21, 22, 22 points respectively.

So at the minute it's almost identical to last season, and to end up safe last year you required 55 points. Hopefully that won't be the case this year but at the minute it's forming a similar scenario

[streatham dave]

16 Wins from 20 hoola

[BigH]

I think 48 points will be enough this year. Ideally 51 or 52. And, yes, a club that is on the fringe of the vortex at the moment will get sucked in like Wolves last year. Mental strength will be everything.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos

So The bottom clubs last season were NOT all doing better than the bottom clubs are this season. Bottom 3 were all doing better. AND the second half of the season was a uonce-in-two-decades improvement on top of that. Last year is not a good guide to what is likely to happen this year.

Crucially last year, the next 3-4 sides were all doing SIGNIFICANTLY better. That meant that only 1-2 clubs had to really up their performance significantly to push the survival target up to 55.


That is the key point this year. There are SEVEN sides at the bottom of the table who are currently averaging lower than the points per game you need to hit 50 at the end of the season. 5 sides at the moment are on target for 44 points or lower. So, let's say 2 clubs have a superb second half of the season. Let's say Yeovil and Barnsley both suddenly and consistently up their points average from the current 0.8 per game, to, say 1.5 per game (just shy of play-off form). Neither has given any hint that they are capable of doing that, but let's assume they do. That would give them both 51-52 points. But even with that, unless three of Doncaster, Milwall, Charlton, Sheff Weds and Bolton ALSO improve their form, the safety target will still be less than 50 points.

It's not impossible, but it is highly, highly unlikely. I'll be very surprised if 48 points goes down this year. I'll stick my neck out and say 45-46 will probably be enough.

[eastender]

 

Dickos

So The bottom clubs last season were NOT all doing better than the bottom clubs are this season. Bottom 3 were all doing better. AND the second half of the season was a uonce-in-two-decades improvement on top of that. Last year is not a good guide to what is likely to happen this year.

Crucially last year, the next 3-4 sides were all doing SIGNIFICANTLY better. That meant that only 1-2 clubs had to really up their performance significantly to push the survival target up to 55.


That is the key point this year. There are SEVEN sides at the bottom of the table who are currently averaging lower than the points per game you need to hit 50 at the end of the season. 5 sides at the moment are on target for 44 points or lower. So, let's say 2 clubs have a superb second half of the season. Let's say Yeovil and Barnsley both suddenly and consistently up their points average from the current 0.8 per game, to, say 1.5 per game (just shy of play-off form). Neither has given any hint that they are capable of doing that, but let's assume they do. That would give them both 51-52 points. But even with that, unless three of Doncaster, Milwall, Charlton, Sheff Weds and Bolton ALSO improve their form, the safety target will still be less than 50 points.

It's not impossible, but it is highly, highly unlikely. I'll be very surprised if 48 points goes down this year. I'll stick my neck out and say 45-46 will probably be enough.

My head hurts now .

[BobG]

Thanks for the reasoning BST. You've cheered me up immensely. Perhaps my history based Jeremiah complex will disappear into the ether... Bloody hope so.

BobG

[Dutch Uncle]

Dickos

So The bottom clubs last season were NOT all doing better than the bottom clubs are this season. Bottom 3 were all doing better. AND the second half of the season was a uonce-in-two-decades improvement on top of that. Last year is not a good guide to what is likely to happen this year.

Crucially last year, the next 3-4 sides were all doing SIGNIFICANTLY better. That meant that only 1-2 clubs had to really up their performance significantly to push the survival target up to 55.


That is the key point this year. There are SEVEN sides at the bottom of the table who are currently averaging lower than the points per game you need to hit 50 at the end of the season. 5 sides at the moment are on target for 44 points or lower. So, let's say 2 clubs have a superb second half of the season. Let's say Yeovil and Barnsley both suddenly and consistently up their points average from the current 0.8 per game, to, say 1.5 per game (just shy of play-off form). Neither has given any hint that they are capable of doing that, but let's assume they do. That would give them both 51-52 points. But even with that, unless three of Doncaster, Milwall, Charlton, Sheff Weds and Bolton ALSO improve their form, the safety target will still be less than 50 points.

It's not impossible, but it is highly, highly unlikely. I'll be very surprised if 48 points goes down this year. I'll stick my neck out and say 45-46 will probably be enough.

That would be the same neck that said correctly that Bournemouth would not win their last 9 on the bounce? They were measuring it up for the gallows after winning the first 8 of those games .......... 

I will never forget that thread - I trusted BST's analysis & instincts over my BobG-like überpessimism then so why not again?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dutch/Bob

For the record, I should point out that a success rate of one from one might be 100%, but...

Anyroad, if I give you hope through the gloomy months, that's grand. Mind, if we get 52 points and go down, you can all b*llocks. You're all grown ups and can look after your own emotional responses.

[BobG]

Just watched PD's interview on Player. He comes across well doesn't he? Another reason to be positive. I'm easily swayed me. Lol Just keep it up Billy. I need you.

BobG

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm easily swayed me. Lol Just keep it up Billy. I need you.

BobG

Ooh errr.

Look Bob. I like you, OK. But it's never going to happen. Just get used to that fact.

[BobG]

Oh b*llocks.



BobG

[Filo]

I'm easily swayed me. Lol Just keep it up Billy. I need you.

BobG

Ooh errr.

Look Bob. I like you, OK. But it's never going to happen. Just get used to that fact.

Given the right circumstances, I' m sure it could happen, you know, like a League 1 ground in the 92nd minute of the final game of the season

[Sammy Chung was King]

Mid forties would see us stay up for me.

[hoolahoop]

I agree almost and think the magic no. Of points will be 47 for a P/Off chance.......let's go for it.