Ukraine

[BigColSutherland]

Is anyone watching what's going on in Kiev tonight? It's like a war zone.

[silent majority]

It's awful. I've spent quite a bit of time in the Ukraine and have work colleagues and friends there now. It's impossible to imagine that me, and quite a few other England fans, were stood in that very same spot in Independence Square about 18 months ago having a great time. It's unrecognisable.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Looking like the nightmare scenario.

The revolution has taken Kiev, but the Govt has moved to their Russo-phile stronghold in the East. This has all the makings of a big civil war. The question is, does Russia go all-in to support its side.

Very, very scary.

[IC1967]

The question is, does Russia go all-in to support its side.

That's a no brainer. Of course they will. There are too many gas pipelines coming from Russia and going through Ukraine to Western Europe for Russia to step aside. The countries of Western Europe will turn a blind eye because getting the gas from Russia is the most important thing to them. The Russian side will obviously be victorious. It's time the opposition politicians were pragmatic and caved in or there will be an horrendous loss of life.

This country doesn't need democracy. It is a system that will not work in countries like this. What they need is a benevolent dictator to keep the peace.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes Mick

Perhaps you should pop over once you've finished the Bettaware round and tell them how to sort it out.

[IC1967]

They only have to ask.

[Boomstick]

Coup d'état, that's what's happened.  . Something which the western media has called a revolution.
Doesn't matter to the Russians anyway, they will let the opposition save face and let them claim a victory. But beneath the surface, behind the scenes nothing has changed in Russia's interests.
Otherwise you would see russian tanks rolling in. (Unless of course Putin is waiting until after the Olympics to act)

[DevilMayCry]

Boomstick has right, it's like a revolution in Ukraine. Some people wants their region to reunite with Russia (especially region where is Donetsk) and others (I think the majority) wants to stay independent as are now. That's what I heard

[Glyn_Wigley]

They only have to ask.

We don't ask but it doesn't stop you.

[RedJ]

Boomstick has right, it's like a revolution in Ukraine. Some people wants their region to reunite with Russia (especially region where is Donetsk) and others (I think the majority) wants to stay independent as are now. That's what I heard

That's basically it, they don't want to reunite with Russia but they want the government to lean more towards them than the EU, and the other side want the government to be more involved with the EU - from what I make of what I've heard at least.

Well, that's putting it simplistically anyway.

[Filo]

It's looking like Russia has upped the anti and have now blockaded the airport in Crimea, this could be like Afganistan all over again for Russia

[BillyStubbsTears]

More likely to be a messy partition of the country and possibly low level skirmishing at the boundaries.

I don't see Russia wanting to go all in to invade the pro-Western part of Ukraine. The stakes are too high with the EU and USA supporting the other side. Much more likely that both sides will accept a partition of the country on pragmatic grounds that it is the solution that allows both sides to save face without the threat of direct Russia-West conflict.

The nastiness will come in ethnic cleansing as the pro and anti Russians are forced out of the others' zones, a la Bosnia. And if militias on the ground get too nasty in this, that is when there might be pressure for more direct intervention from Russia or the West. And THEN it could accidentally get far more dangerous.

[River Don]

It looks like this is now all about Russia maintaining control of Crimea. They aren't about to relinquish their naval access to the black sea, they've been handing out Russian passports to anyone who wants one. Partition of the country looks to be in progress.

[RobTheRover]

Over to you, Mr Klitschko.  Those presidential elections in May seem a long, long way off now.

[Filo]

Putin has asked the Russian Parliament to deploy troops in Ukraine, How will. The West react to this?

[River Don]

It's a very tricky situation to say the least.

Letting Crimea become some sort of independent state under Russian influence would look to be the path that offers the least difficulties.

Whatever the stakes are getting pretty high, they've got to tread very carefully.

[moses]

When they were fighting in parliament last week and the MP was winding up a punch. He had a really good luck round first to ensure Mr Klitchko was nohere near.

[Boomstick]

Coup d'état, that's what's happened.  . Something which the western media has called a revolution.
Doesn't matter to the Russians anyway, they will let the opposition save face and let them claim a victory. But beneath the surface, behind the scenes nothing has changed in Russia's interests.
Otherwise you would see russian tanks rolling in. (Unless of course Putin is waiting until after the Olympics to act)

I guess Russia has something to lose, and now I thought, they are acting now the Olympics have finished.
The kremlin has approved troops for deployment in Ukraine not just Crimea. could get messy for the Ukrainians that instigated the coup. can't see anything apart from a decisive Russian victory, just ask Georgia.

[River Don]

[RedJ]

"Putin may be taking the WWI centenary commemorations a little too far."

[BillyStubbsTears]

As ever, Paul Mason has the best strategic view.

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-push-west-economic-war/441

[River Don]

As ever, Paul Mason has the best strategic view.

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-push-west-economic-war/441

An interesting read but perhaps a bit alarmist, I don't see events in Ukraine impacting much on the forces of globalisation and China.

What should be remembered is Ukraine isn't a nation like Poland or Lithuania, a buffer against the west. Many Russians feel Ukraine is a part of Russia, it's little Russia and many Ukrainians feel Russian. That's why Putin feels he can act with impunity, he's moving Russian forces around a country he feels is his own. In geopolitical terms the Crimea is very important to Russia.

In my opinion, partition looks like happening and the crucial thing is where the lines are drawn, western Ukraine wants to be European. Would Russia want to reclaim western Ukraine, that is the dangerous scenario. Hopefully Putin might look at all the trouble Kiev has caused and be inclined to let it go, if he decides he wants to grab it back, then there could be real trouble. If the west insist Ukraines border are fixed and should remain then equally that spells trouble, we can't go annexing bits of Russia.

[Filo]

I think it's a case of who blinks first between Russia and USA, one wrong move from a rogue Russian soldier in Ukraine could be the spark that lights the touch paper. I think Putin is old school Communist, he'll not like the fact that the Soviet Union broke up or going further back in time when the soviets back down during the Cuban missile crisis

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD/Filo

It's the connection with 1905 that is key.

Like the Tsars, Putin's legitimacy at home rests on being seen as a hard man who isn't pushed around. The embarrassment of the Russo-Japanese War in 05 was the first sign of the Tsarist system crumbling and there is a direct line from there to Sarajevo in 1914 (Russia had to put its foot down and not be bullied by Austria, and eventually the storming of the Winter Palace.

So Putin cannot be seen to be bullied by the West over Ukraine without his legitimacy at home coming into question.

But the West cannot ignore a call from Ukraine to join the Western family of nations without ITS legitimacy coming into question. If the West backs down over Ukraine, what happens when Putin then bullies Poland? Or Hungary?

I still think the most likely outcome is a messy partition. Both sides can justify that. The West will tell Ukraine to accept that because the West is not going to put boots on the ground to go into direct conflict with Spetsnaz forces to secure Kharkov or Sevastopol for Ukraine.

But it will inevitably be accompanied by economic issues between the West and Russia. Because the West will need to paint Putin as the aggressor in breaking up Ukraine. And that is what Mason is pushing at. It means a fundamental re-aligning of global relationships, with China having a free hand to support whoever it sees fit.

[Filo]

BST,



Like I said, Putin is old school Communist, Krushciev's  downfall was partly down to him being seen to let USA dictate to him, he blinked first in the Cuban crisis, that let to a more hardliner in Breshniev coming to power

[River Don]

BST Filo,

Putin is no commie, BST is right in painting him as a hard man, he's a robber baron whose power lays with Russia's oils dn gas industry and the oligarchs.

I think China has felt it has a freehand to do as it sees fit for quite sometime anyway.

[Filo]

RD, Putin may not be a commie in name, but imprisoning political opponents, including poisoning some of them, being a prominent member of the KGB and for a time in charge of the Soviet interests in the former East Germany suggests that he definitely is a Commie

[Filo]

Haven't the Russians been against intervention in Syria because they say it violates Syrian sovereignty?

Whats the difference in Crimea?

[River Don]

Haven't the Russians been against intervention in Syria because they say it violates Syrian sovereignty?

Whats the difference in Crimea?

They believe Crimea is a region of Russia.

In Russia they seems to have taken all the instruments of control from the old soviet era but they no longer have the communist ideology. It's more a controlled market, a kind of crony capitalism. I would describe Putin as a nationalist.

[Filo]

Spain believe Gibraltar is a region of Spain, but they have n't sent Spanish troops to roam the streets of Gibraltar. Like Gibraltar was ceded to the British by the signing of a treaty, Crimea was ceded to Ukraine by the signing of a treaty. Russia have now clearly violated that treaty and international law, Europe and it's allies now need to stand firm in the face of Russian aggression!