Met Office

[BillyStubbsTears]

Apparently predicted that this winter would be dry and assured councils in a secret report that there would be no problems.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2564358/Could-Met-Office-wrong-Just-floods-secret-report-told-councils-Winter-drier-normal-especially-West-Country.html

[Filo]

Are you a closet Mail reader BST?

[The Red Baron]

BST quoting the Daily Mail? Either (a) his account has been hacked or (b) Mad Mick has finally worn him down to the point where he's had a Damascene conversion to the Right. I personally think (a) is more likely. 

I must admit I'd take anything I was told by the Met Office with a pinch of salt. Their long-range forecasts are noted for being hopelessly inaccurate. Remember that time they forecast a "barbecue summer?" Well, it would have been so long as you had a covered patio to keep the rain off.

[River Don]

I'm sure I remember them reporting in the summer that this winter was going to be freezing with so much snow that last years was going to look like nothing.

Its very difficult to predict the weather beyond the next ten days int it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sorry folks. Don't know what came over me there.

Here's the actual Met Office long range forecast from last November. If it was a "secret" report as the Mail said, they have some piss poor security at the Met Office, cos I found this after 10 seconds on Google

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf

And it's interesting isn't it? The Mail reports that the Met Office, "assured councils there would be a ‘significant reduction in precipitation compared to average’ for most of the country, adding that there was only a 15 per cent chance the winter would fall into the ‘wettest category’."

In fact, the Met Office report said:
"Confidence in the forecast for precipitation across the UK over the next three months is relatively low. For the
December-January-February period as a whole there is a slight signal for below-average precipitation.
The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25%
and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories
is 20%)."

Surely, this can't be yet ANOTHER example of the Mail making stories up, printing lies (the report WASN'T secret) and selectively twisting facts (The Met Office DIDN'T "assure" anyone that a dry spell was on the way) to satisfy a political agenda that hates anything in the public sector. Can it?

TRB/RD. I agree that the Met Office (and every weather forecaster) has trouble making this type of long range prediction. But 20 years ago, they had equal problems making 5-10 day predictions and now they are extremely good at doing this. If the Met Office doesn't try out prediction approaches and new computational models, they will never improve. The approach is experimental and very tentative. It is only Kitsons like the Daily Mail who wash over those aspects and use this as a stick to beat the public sector.

As I've said times many, I'd rather use my bare hand to wipe my arse than soil my body by using strips of that rag.