Final table based on form

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after last night's games

 Final table based on last 8 match form

Donny 51 points
Birmingham 48
Blackpool 45
Yeovil 43
Barnsley 41
Millwall 38
Charlton 37

Based on last 5 match form
Donny 51
Yeovil 48
Blackpool 47
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 43
Millwall 40
Charlton 39


Still sticking with my prediction of the past month that 44-45 points is the safety target. 10% chance that it could be as high as 48. 10% chance that it could be as low as 41.

My take is that 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats will probably see us safe. Owt much more than that and we're well over the line.

Our worst runs of 11 games this season have been two overlapping runs from Oct-Jan.  The series of matches from Reading-Derby and from Bolton-Middlesboro both saw us pick up 8 points from 11 games. In both of those runs, our defence was decimated by injuries.

As it is now of course.

[since-1969]

Kiss of death 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Birmingham, DeeDahs, Leeds, Bolton and Millwall matches could make it for us. 

We could lose the other 6 if we pick up 9-10 points from those 5.

[roversontheup]

I've just done my own predictor using the current button 5 and it will be the same as current positions allowing for the fact that Birmingham, Blackpool etc are not accounted for. So:

Doncaster 44
Millwall.    38
Yeovil.      37
Barnsley.  35
Charlton.  33

[ravenrover]

As long as that is the situation going into the last game I would be quite happy

[Dare to dream!]

Nothing goes to plan in football

[Lesonthewest]

Fascinating reading the stats & current form, but going against them a little & looking at everyones  fixtures I have done my personal bottom 4, disregarding Blackpool & Birmingham who I think will get enough, in Blackpools case by the skin of their teeth though. Not including Rovers either for the fear of jinxing us.

Millwall 45
Charlton 44
Barnsley 43
Yeovil 43

So I reckon given the odd result here or there another 10 points should see us home.

[BigH]

Fascinating reading the stats & current form, but going against them a little & looking at everyones  fixtures I have done my personal bottom 4, disregarding Blackpool & Birmingham who I think will get enough, in Blackpools case by the skin of their teeth though. Not including Rovers either for the fear of jinxing us.

Millwall 45
Charlton 44
Barnsley 43
Yeovil 43

So I reckon given the odd result here or there another 10 points should see us home.

Yep, I'd go along with that.

[Mr1Croft]

Final table based on form from last 10 games, for those of you interested.


Only noticeable team at the minute is Wigan...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after today's games.

Final table based on last 8 form

Donny 48 points
Birmingham 46
Blackpool 44
Yeovil 41
Barnsley 40
Millwall 40
Charlton 38

Based on last 5 match form
Donny 51
Birmingham 45
Yeovil 44
Blackpool 44
Charlton 43
Barnsley 42
Millwall 40

Lowering my prediction for the safety target. I reckon 43-44 points will see a team stay up this year.

[Copps is Magic]

Surprised to see people predicting yeovil to stay up.

[colincramb]

I'm not committing on this yet, just don't know with this league! Great result today, just need to do the business next week against the fowls then I will be relaxed!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps

I'm not predicting Yeovil will stay up. That is simply what an extrapolation of current form suggests.

For what it's worth, I'd be very surprised if Yeovil's good recent form carried on to the end of the season.

[wilts rover]

Yeovil have some decent results recently, beating us and Wednesday, drawing with Watford and Reading. Of the bottom 7 teams I reckon they have the easiest run-in. They still have Barnsley, Blackpool and Charlton to play, plus home games with Bolton, Bournmouth and Hudders. Millwall, Barnsley, Brum and Blackpool have terrible run-ins. I would say that Yeovil staying up is certainly within the bounds of possibility.

[BigH]

Yeovil have some decent results recently, beating us and Wednesday, drawing with Watford and Reading. Of the bottom 7 teams I reckon they have the easiest run-in. They still have Barnsley, Blackpool and Charlton to play, plus home games with Bolton, Bournmouth and Hudders. Millwall, Barnsley, Brum and Blackpool have terrible run-ins. I would say that Yeovil staying up is certainly within the bounds of possibility.

Copps

I'm not predicting Yeovil will stay up. That is simply what an extrapolation of current form suggests.

For what it's worth, I'd be very surprised if Yeovil's good recent form carried on to the end of the season.

Come on BST, surely a man of your calibre has figured out the best return on betting which of the bottom 7 will stay up/go down.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tough one H

I'm guessing 3 from the current bottom 4. I think the rest of us are just about far enough away. Blackpool might drop into it perhaps.

Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?

[IDM]

Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?

Jammy bas**rd!

[BigH]

Tough one H

I'm guessing 3 from the current bottom 4. I think the rest of us are just about far enough away. Blackpool might drop into it perhaps.

Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?

Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?

Jammy b*****d!

If only

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Lets hope we get a minimum of 48 otherwise it's going to the last game.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Baz

I'll bet you a pound to a pinch of dogshite that, if we have 47 points after 45 games, we'll be mathematically safe.

[The Red Baron]

I'm beginning to think 45 might be enough, though it would be "squeaky bum time." I prefer to look at it in terms of games. We have 10 left and if we win three and draw a couple we'll probably be OK.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I've been going on balance of probability rather than nigh-on certainty of what would be needed to stay up. That's why I have been saying for a couple of months that 45 points was the most likely outcome (although I'm now thinking that was unduly pessimistic - I now reckon it's more likely to be 43 points than 45). 48 points (3 wins and a couple of draws for us) is now at the outer limits of probability. For 48 points to be the target, you'd need 2 of the bottom 4 to suddenly hit promotion form for the final quarter of the season AND for Blackpool and Birmingham's form to significantly improve.

So, as things currently stand, I'd say that getting 48 points would give you a 95%+ chance of staying up. But 41-45 points is much more likely to be the actual number of points that you'll need to finish 4th bottom.

[The Red Baron]

Previous experience suggests that at least one side currently in the bottom six WILL hit promotion form between now and the end of the season. Though I agree it is unlikely to be more than one or two.

Wouldn't it be nice if we were to be that side? 

[southwestexile]

I'd like Yeovil to stay up, gives me a game to go to even though we always lose.

Icing on the cake for us staying up would be to finish above Leeds, maybe with a last minute points docking taking them into the bottom three?

[Dare to dream!]

Previous experience suggests that at least one side currently in the bottom six WILL hit promotion form between now and the end of the season. Though I agree it is unlikely to be more than one or two.

Wouldn't it be nice if we were to be that side? 

I'd say Yeovil will be the ones if any who hit top form. Yeovil remind me of when we hit that unbelievable form we had no pressure on us, no one expected us to stay up. Team's will continue to underestimate them also.

[Donnywolf]

I'd like Yeovil to stay up, gives me a game to go to even though we always lose.

Icing on the cake for us staying up would be to finish above Leeds, maybe with a last minute points docking taking them into the bottom three?

Obviously I can empathise but I would personally like (without any fancy predictions of every game left) to see Yeovil Millwall and Charlton go down

Unsure who I want to come up .... ok Wolves would be good and Rotherham and Brentford so I can sing Marcello Trotta - he's hit the Crossbar

[RedJ]

I want Brentford to cock it up again. Wolves, Preston and then don't care who as long as not Brentford via the playoffs.

[The Red Baron]

I want Brentford to cock it up again. Wolves, Preston and then don't care who as long as not Brentford via the playoffs.

I'd be quite happy to see Brentford come up. We have a great record against them in recent years.

Re Rotherham- I wouldn't want to wish success on any team managed by Fatty Evans.

[rtidbelly]

just for our fixtures i predict...
Sheff wed (H) Draw
Burnley (A) Lose
Leeds (A) Draw
Birmingham (H) Win
Bolton (H) Draw
Ipswich (A) Lose
Derby (H) Lose
Millwall (A) Win
Reading (H) Lose
Leicester (A) Lose

Giving us a grand total of 46 pts which i feel will be more than enough to survive. Some may turn out different as i feel we could sneak a win at Leeds on current form, but could see others changing depending on how well we stick together after a defeat.

current bottom 3 have each other to play, charlton having home advantage in both games but with a back log of fixtures can see them struggling with fitness/ injuries.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Re Rotherham- I wouldn't want to wish success on any team managed by Fatty Evans.
[/quote]

I thought they had killed ''Fat Pat'' off in Eastenders?