Final table based on form

[Filo]

Blackpool have Burnley, Brighton, wigan and Charlton to play, they surely won't get more than 3 more points, we need that win before the last game, we do not want to be going into that game needing something!

[BigColSutherland]

The trouble with the Wigan and Charlton games are they might not have anything to play for by then.

The Burnley one thankfully could be the game that puts the Clarets up.

And fortunately, by letting Ipswich roll us over today, we've kept Brighton on their toes. Cleverly done.

[BigH]

Only once this season have we lost more than three on the bounce and that was when we had that dire period over Christmas/New Year; we lost four in a row and then drew a game. So we're due a point.

Or have I reached the deluded "clutching at straws" stage?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after last night


Final table based on last 8 form

Donny 48 points
Charlton 47
Birmingham 47
Blackpool 46
Millwall 46
Barnsley 44
Yeovil 40


Based on last 5 match form
Birmingham 49
Millwall 48
Charlton 47
Donny 45
Barnsley 45
Blackpool 43
Yeovil 40

For the record, I still think these predictions are a tad on the high side. Most of the bottom clubs have bloody hard final fixtures. I don't expect Barnsley, Millwall and  Charlton all to get 5-8 points from their remaining games.

[The Red Baron]

For the record, I still think these predictions are a tad on the high side. Most of the bottom clubs have bloody hard final fixtures. I don't expect Barnsley, Millwall and  Charlton all to get 5-8 points from their remaining games.

BST- I think that is called "whistling in the dark!" 

I don't blame you though, I am also nervous although I have long maintained that we would need 47-48 points in order to be safe. Looking at the final seven games I thought we'd be pretty close to that by now and it is a concern that the three games out of the seven that I perceived as "easier" have produced no points.

I have a feeling it will go down to the last game and there could be five teams scrambling to avoid two places now. The result last night was good in one way, in that Charlton are well and truly in the mix, but bad in another in that Barnsley will now fancy their chances of pulling off another of their houdini acts.

Incidentally, if your five game table is correct then we will almost certainly go down on goal difference. Barnsley's (-28) is only two goals worse than ours (-26) and if they win two of their four while we only draw two of ours then they will almost certainly improve their GD against ours unless they get heavily beaten in the other two games.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It's going to be intriguing to compare how this plays out now compared with the earlier predictions....

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

For the record, I started off this form
prediction because I was fed up with hearing people saying "So and so are in good form. We're going to need 55 points to stay up" or the like. The form prediction table has been remarkably consistent in predicting that something between 43-46 points would be the target. It's currently at the upper end of that range, primarily because several sides near the bottom have had some easier than normal matches (e.g. Barnsley have beaten 2 of the bottom 4 in their last 5 games. Charlton have played 2 of the bottom 4 plus Leeds, the then 2nd weakest side in the division. Mill wall have win 2 games in their last 5 - one against the weakest form side in the division and one against Wigan's 2nd string.) All these sides have much harder matches to come now.

I suspect, as I have done for most of the past 3 months, that 44-45 points will ensure survival.

[River Don]

I've thought since reading this thread that 46 pts will be around the mark, one more win should be enough for Rovers to feel reasonably confident. Finding that one one more win is becoming quite a big task though.

I have to admit, I didn't really expect our form to collapse while seeing the clubs below us suddenly pick up though. It's become more uncomfortable than I thought it would be.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think 46 points will be ample. For it to be more than that, you'd need three of the following to occur

Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games.

Some of those teams will do that. I don't think 3 out of 4 will do.


So, with 7 matches left, we needed three points to hit 46 points. It's worth noting that since we've been in the Championship, we've only had three runs where we got fewer than 3 points from 7 games.

1) Sept-Oct 2008, 1 point from 7 games when we were perfecting our "let's keep possession and never have a shot, and insist on starting with Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.
2) First 7 games of 2011-12  - 1 point - with a team that had Richard Naylor, Mustapha Dumbuya and Sam Hird in defence, and Kyle Bennett and Giles Barnes up front.
3) Late on on 2011/12  - 1 point in 7 games as the Experiment turned into Frankenstein's monster without the electricity.

We are much, much better than in any of those periods. I would be amazed if we didn't pick up 3 points from somewhere in these last 4 games.

[weststander]

My concern is our ability to score goals compared to our relegation competitors. Given that we find it difficult to keep clean sheets we probably need to score goals to pick up points and even just to draw games. Not sure our recent form shows we can do enough but I'm crossing everything

[BigColSutherland]

1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.

Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?

[steve@dcfd]

My concern is our ability to score goals compared to our relegation competitors. Given that we find it difficult to keep clean sheets we probably need to score goals to pick up points and even just to draw games. Not sure our recent form shows we can do enough but I'm crossing everything

With four games left that mean as much to the opposition as they do to us. Derby automatic or top spot in playoffs,  Millwall relegation, Reading playoffs and Leicester  celebration.

[The Red Baron]

1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.

Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?

I don't know about the crude observation but I was struggling to remember when we were so short of strikers that we had to play the former VSC Chairman up front.

Mind you, it must have been a close call between Alex Peterson and Rob Clark for the Millwall home game in December!

[BigColSutherland]

I believe it was the homosexual Welsh rugby star

[pib]

1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.

Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?

I don't know about the crude observation but I was struggling to remember when we were so short of strikers that we had to play the former VSC Chairman up front.

Mind you, it must have been a close call between Alex Peterson and Rob Clark for the Millwall home game in December!

The match that saw Robinson and Macheda both left on the bench in favour of a 19 year old debutant?

It'll probably end up being forgotten that Dickov CHOSE to play Peterson in that game rather than having to. As I remember, Millwall were there for the taking too. One of those 'missed opportunities' I fear we'll live to regret if we go down!

[The Red Baron]

Both of them had had absolute stinkers in the Boxing Day game against Ipswich. Macheda in particular looked totally uninterested and when he was pulled off he walked straight down the tunnel. I really didn't think he'd play for us again.

However Macheda nearly won us that Millwall game with a shot that grazed the post and then he and Robinson both put in decent displays at QPR a few days later.

If we do go down this season there'll be lots of reference to "ones that got away" but to me that wasn't one of them. Dickov felt he couldn't start either Macheda or Robinson after such awful displays and I for one don't disagree with him.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.

I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.

Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games   - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult

We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two. 

[pib]

Both of them had had absolute stinkers in the Boxing Day game against Ipswich. Macheda in particular looked totally uninterested and when he was pulled off he walked straight down the tunnel. I really didn't think he'd play for us again.

However Macheda nearly won us that Millwall game with a shot that grazed the post and then he and Robinson both put in decent displays at QPR a few days later.

If we do go down this season there'll be lots of reference to "ones that got away" but to me that wasn't one of them. Dickov felt he couldn't start either Macheda or Robinson after such awful displays and I for one don't disagree with him.

I know they were, I was at both games. I felt it was the wrong decision not to play at least one of them at the time and I stick by that. Millwall were useless at the time, could barely buy a win anywhere, and as the home team I thought we should've gone for the win rather than just trying to 'stop the rot' as it were.

Oh well. I suppose we'll see how things pan out. If Millwall stay up at our expense, I'll look back at that game even more as 'one that got away' than I do now.

[BillyStubbsTears]

1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.

Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?

I don't know about the crude observation but I was struggling to remember when we were so short of strikers that we had to play the former VSC Chairman up front.

Mind you, it must have been a close call between Alex Peterson and Rob Clark for the Millwall home game in December!

Nice one TRB

My ale-addled brain confused and combined two of the more immobile plodders from our previous Championship sojourn.

[wilts rover]

I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.

I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.

Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games   - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult

We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two. 

Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?

Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?

It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.

[drfc1951]

I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.

I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.

Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games   - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult

We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two. 

Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?

Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?

It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.

Us and Bournemouth.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Millwall have only won three of their past 16 games. One of those was against Wigan's 2nd team. Another was against a Forest team whose record over the past 12 games is W0 D5 L7.

Millwall will not get 6 points from their last 4 games.

[pib]

They beat Derby though, and snatched draws against two good sides in Watford & Blackburn. And it wasn't really Wigan's second team, was it? They left a few out, granted, but a team of Carson; Boyce, Barnett, Kiernan, Beausejour; Maloney, Collison, McEachran, McClean; Maynard, Waghorn is hardly a weak one for this division.

Not saying they will get 6 points, but depending on how you write it, you can easily argue that those results indicate a recent upturn and that they've got a chance.

[wilts rover]

I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.

I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.

Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games   - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult

We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two. 

Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?

Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?

It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.

Us and Bournemouth.

Bournemouth are two points off the play-offs, unbeaten in 6 of which they have won 5, have home matches against Wednesday and Forest to come, you really dont believe in form do you?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yeah they beat Derby. That sort of result does happen. But it doesn't happen very often for a poor side.

As for the Wigan match, Wigan left out 8 players who had played in the previous game. 7 of the players who played against Millwall were left out from the Cup semi. Of the ones who played against Millwall, Kiernan had started 4 league matches this season, Maloney 5, Maynard 8, McEachran 4, Waghorn 9. Maybe not a second XI, but a far weaker side than they should have put out.

Millwall have been in poor form for months. Even with recent wins against Forest and a weakened Wigan, they have only picked up 9 points from the last 8 games (which is the usual timescale over which form is judged).

And that run has included matches against the two worst form sides in the division (Leeds and Forest) matches against 3 of the bottom 7 (Charlton, Blackpool and Birmingham) and the Wigan match.
 
That run is their second best run of the season.  If they repeat that rate of return from here on in, they'll still only end up with 44-45 points.

I'll stand by my prediction. Millwall will not get another 6 points this season. If they do, and we go down as a result, it's my fault.

[pib]

Yeah they beat Derby. That sort of result does happen. But it doesn't happen very often for a poor side.

As for the Wigan match, Wigan left out 8 players who had played in the previous game. 7 of the players who played against Millwall were left out from the Cup semi. Of the ones who played against Millwall, Kiernan had started 4 league matches this season, Maloney 5, Maynard 8, McEachran 4, Waghorn 9. Maybe not a second XI, but a far weaker side than they should have put out.

I'll stand by my prediction. Millwall will not get another 6 points this season. If they do, and we go down as a result, it's my fault.

Kiernan I'll give you, but for the others it's too simplistic just to look at the number of starts they've made.

Maloney has been injured for a large chunk of the season. But he's still a class player at this level clearly, having been one of their best players last season (he won their Player of the Year).
Maynard only joined in January.
McEachran only joined in late January. He's a loanee from Chelsea and an England U21 player. Clearly not a 'weak' player.
Waghorn only joined in January, and is first choice striker (proven by his strike rate there, and the fact they've made his loan move permanent).

Plus, those who played v Millwall but were left out at Wembley included Leon Barnett (37 league apps this season), and Jack Collison & James McClean, both players with Premiership and international pedigree.

As I said, hardly a weak side.

I'm not making a prediction as to how many points they'll get, but I think it's a bit disingenuous to write off their recent results as being totally insignificant.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pib

Point taken. Look at my modified post for a more detailed explanation of why they are shite and will not get another 6 points.

[pib]

Pib

Point taken. Look at my modified post for a more detailed explanation of why they are shite and will not get another 6 points.

You may well be right.

Neither is it beyond the realms of possibility that they'll beat us (see DRFC's dire away record) taking them to 43 points which is what we're on now. That leaves us needing to better their results (i.e. 1 win to be sure) from Derby (H), Reading (H) or Leicester (A). That's no gimme IMO.

Maybe I'm just thinking worst case scenario, but we haven't half made things bloody difficult for ourselves with recent results!

[drfc1951]

I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.

I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.

Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games   - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult

We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two. 

Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?

Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?

It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.

Us and Bournemouth.

Bournemouth are two points off the play-offs, unbeaten in 6 of which they have won 5, have home matches against Wednesday and Forest to come, you really dont believe in form do you?

Last match of season Bournemouth might have nothing to play for then,could be thinking of the beach.

[RedJ]